Bay City Ball

I was going to write a post today about how Jose Castillo is awful or that our infield defense is still pretty bad or that Ray Durham has the range of a beached whale but I said screw it. We all know that the 2008 Giants season, or the year that speed and defense ran wild, is going to have more negatives than positives at the major league level. Watching a team with defensive issues that can’t score runs isn’t anyones first choice for exciting baseball.

Headlines have alternated between ‘Giants lose another tough one’ and ‘When will Rich Aurilia pass his kidney stone?’. Clearly if any season has ever existed for us to look at other places for encouragement, this is the one

That’s why I’ve been addicted to reading minor league box scores so much this year. I’ve always had a great interest in the farm system — or lack of — but this year I’ve found myself checking minor league box scores before the big club’s box scores. Strange that I’d rather read about anyone with a slight chance of upside than looking at Castillo’s latest o-’fer.

Load up the van, we’re taking a road trip through the Giants minor league system! Use the bathroom, buckle up, and let’s find some signs of encouragement!

Today we’ll make our first stop at the Augusta Greenjackets. The Greenjackets are one of the more exciting minor league teams in the Giants system because of the high number of draft picks in ‘07 and the ever-popular Angel Villalona. The Greenjackets are currently 33-23 and only 6.5 games out of first place in the South Atlantic League.

Here are some players that I’ve been keeping an eye on and so should you.

Augusta Green Jackets (A)

1B Angel Villalona - Mr. Villalona is the top prospect in the Giants organization. The kid from the Dominican Republic won’t turn 18 until August and his bat holds unrivaled potential among minor leaguers. His plate approach could use some work — 12 walks to 47 strikeouts — but when you consider his age, you’ve got a lot to like. His power potential is still enormous and he’s shown flashes of brilliance already this year. The Giants can move Angel along slowly and he could still make it to the majors by his early 20’s.

LHP Madison Bumgarner - Not only is the left-handed Bumgarner one of the youngest pitchers in the South Atlantic League, he’s been one of the best. The 10th overall pick of the 2007 draft has been phenomenal in his first pro-season. He’s striking out 28.2% of hitters faced and only walking 4.3%. That’s good for a K/BB ratio of 6.56, meaning that for every 6.5 K’s, Bumgarner walks 1 hitter. That’s an excellent ratio that puts him 7th in the SAL for K/BB among starters. Other things to like about Bumgarner is that when hitters do make contact, it’s been predominately on the ground — a GB% of 52. Add in reports that he’s been making progress with his breaking pitch — a slurvy breaking ball — and showing some promise with a changeup and you’ve got tons of encouragement. Bumgarner is making a run as a top prospect in the Giants system.

2B Nick Noonan - The ‘07 draft injected a lot of talent into the lower portion of the Giants minor league system. Noonan was picked by the Giants 32nd overall in the 1st round of that draft. The prep shortstop held his own in the AZL in ‘07 with a line of (.316/.357/.451). He started this year in the SAL and has had mixed results. His line of (.273/.298/.411) has shown that Noonan is still a young player — only 19 — with some kinks to work out in his game. He came out of high school as a very polished player. Scouts loved his makeup and hitting approach and he even got some comparisons to Chase Utley, albeit with less power potential. Noonan has moved off shortstop and is now playing 2B full time. He isn’t walking much — just 6 walks in 209 AB’s — but his upside is still very high. He fits the mold of an offensive minded 2B with some speed. Noonan has plenty of time to mature as a player and hopefully we’ll see him make some progress as the season unfolds.

RHP Daniel Otero - My obscure pick for this level. Otero was drafted in ‘07 in the 21st round out of the University of Southern Florida. He racked up 19 saves for the Volcanoes that year in 22.1 innings pitched. Most everything I’ve read about Otero, stuff-wise, indicates that he’s got a fringey fastball and a slider that he uses as a chase pitch. What Otero does have is great control. He’s yet to walk a hitter this year with the Greenjackets in 22.1 innings pitched. In 44.2 career innings pitched he’s only walked 2 hitters. So far as the Greenjackets closer, Otero has collected 14 saves. He’s getting some swing-throughs with a K% at 24.4% and he’s kept the ball on the ground with a GB% of 69%. Because of Otero’s fringey stuff, he’ll have to prove himself every step of the way — similar to Sergio Romo or Adam Cowart — but the early results look great.

That’s it for today’s Farm Review. Tomorrow we’ll be heading across the country to San Jose to check out the San Jose Giants. See you then.

Comment Starter: Got a personal favorite Greenjacket? Let’s hear it.

Baseball America has just recently released their Top-10 Prospects list for the Giants. You can find it here.

Here’s what the list looks like:

1. Angel Villalona, 3b
2. Tim Alderson, rhp
3. Madison Bumgarner, lhp
4. Nate Schierholtz, of
5. Henry Sosa, rhp
6. Nick Noonan, 2b/ss
7. Eugenio Velez, of/2b
8. Wendell Fairley, of
9. John Bowker, of
10. Emmanuel Burriss, ss

It’s no shock that Angel is the #1 prospect according to BA, he’s got the potential to be the first impact bat the Giants have developed since Will Clark. No pressure, kid. Looking at the list, it’s really apparent how much the 2007 draft has helped the Giants farm system. 4 of the top 10 players listed are from that draft (Alderson, Bumgarner, Noonan, and Fairely). Another odd thing about this particular list is that the usual pitching-heavy Giants have only 3 pitchers in the top-10 compared to 7 position players.

I don’t have many arguments with the list. I think Velez is a little high, I’m not convinced that he’ll hit enough in the majors to be more than a pinch-runner but some scouts love his package of speed and gap power. His ceiling seems to range between Chone Figgins and a bench player, I’m not sure that he’ll ever be as useful as Figgins has been but I would love for him to develop into a Figgins-lite. Burris is another guy on the list who confuses me. He’s never going to hit for power but BA dubbed him as the “fastest runner” in the organization. He’s smooth enough with the glove that he should be able to stick at shortstop but his 2007 was a tale of two seasons. He started this year in A+ San Jose but struggled and was sent back to A-ball in Augusta and had a pretty nice season hitting (.321/.374/.381) and stealing 51 bases out of 66 attempts. He’ll turn 23 in January and the Giants have to hope that he’ll be able to conquer A+ ball next year and maybe even move into AA, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world if he just held his own in A+ next year.

John Bowker made his name relevant again with a terrific 2007 in the Eastern League, notorious for being tough on hitters. The Giants are stacked with outfielders on the current major league roster so the team might not rush him to the big leagues. I could see them leaving him in AAA for the year and hope that he continues to hit the ball like he did in ‘07. I think one of the more intriguing guys on this list is Wendell Fairley. He’s going to be a very raw player to begin with because he got into baseball lately but scouts love his terrific batspeed and he’s good enough defensively, arm-wise and glove-wise, to play in center field. He could hit some bumps initially but he could also take off, no one is really sure what he’s gong to do yet but his athleticism is huge.

Looking outside of the top-10, I think the Giants have a large amount of potential relief talent. Guys like Sergio Romo, Steve Edlefsen, Adam Cowart, Jessie English, Billy Sadler, Erick Threets, Kevlin Pichardo, and Brian Anderson could all find their way into the bullpen in 1-2 years. You’ve also got some mid-to-back of the rotation talent like Clayton Tanner, Kevin Pucetas, Ben Snyder, Nick Pereira, Joe Martinez, and Paul Oseguera that might come into play in a couple of years. Don’t let the top-10 list fool you, the Giants are still a very pitching-centric farm system.

The farm system still isn’t a top-15 system but I think it’s moving in the right direction. For 2007 BA ranked the Giants system as the 20th best in baseball, mostly on the ability to count Lincecum as a prospect before he shot to the majors, and I could see the system taking a few baby steps forward by the next ranking. Having the #5 pick in the 2008 draft will help the cause as well.

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Non-Tender Rumors: The Giants and Marlins are rumored to be looking at former Angels prospect 1B/3B Dallas McPherson. The 27-year-old McPherson has always had power potential (he’s slugged 108 HR’s in his minor league career) but he’s had injury troubles and his minor league success has never translated to the big leagues. He’s coming off back surgery, but if he’s healthy he could be an intriguing option for the Giants who still have major openings at both 1B and 3B. I’d still like to see the Giants “kick the tires” on Morgan Ensberg, who the Padres non-tendered.