What do the stats say?

A quick trip to the fabulous Brooks Baseball gives us this image:

From 2007-2010 Cain had a fairly consistent vertical release point. He lowered it in 2011 and it remained at pretty much the same point in 2012. This year, he’s dropped even further. His pitches, across the board, are coming out of a lower release point these days.

Here’s a video from a 2010 Cain start against the Dodgers. Be sure to check out the release point. And here’s a video this season from his last start against the Braves.

I used Cain starts at AT&T Park because the camera angle is the same. I’ve also freeze-framed each release and done a side-by-side comparison.

There’s a pretty clear difference between 2010 and 2013. In 2010, he’s over the top more. In 2013, he’s slingy-er.

This is definitely one of those things were I don’t know what this means, but it might mean something. In general, I get a little leery of pitchers when they start doing things differently. And when they are signed to a long-term deal, like Cain is, I double down on my leeriness. I also find it interesting that Krukow — a guy that generally is pretty astute about the craft of pitching — has never made mention of Cain’s lowered vertical release point. Or, if he has, I’ve missed it. Cain for the last few years will occasionally lower his arm and sling a pitch, but he’s making a real effort these days to pitch at a lower release point.

My gut feeling is that he might be trying to compensate for such a large inning workload. If pick a date, say 1980, and look onward at the amount of innings thrown by a pitcher by the age of 28, we get the following list. Cain ranks #15 in innings pitched by the age of 28. You’ll notice that he’s flanked by all sorts of good pitching. This makes sense, because you aren’t going to be allowed to throw a ton of innings if you stink. However, you’ve got to wonder if Cain’s workload has caught up to him, making him throw from a lower slot?

I’m just spit-balling, but it’s something to keep an eye on. By the “eye test,” Cain’s pitches haven’t looked crisp in 2013. He’s had a hard time keeping the ball in the park — 2.08 HR/9; 18.3 percent HR/FB — and he just doesn’t look like the same Cain we’ve seen for the past few seasons. I think we are a far ways off from sheer panic, as Cain has been so good for so long, but something in Cain’s pitching appears to be changing.

The Good Thing about all this is: You could make the argument that since Cain dropped his release, he’s actually gotten better. If we split his numbers between 2007-2010 (higher release) and 2011-2012 (lower release), we get the following:

Note: If you included 2013 in the ’2011-2012′ grouping, things look slightly worse: 112 ERA+, 7.3 H/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.6 SO/9, 3.21 BB/9.

It’s possible that, at the moment, Cain is just going through some horrible luck and getting burned on home runs. It’s possible that once things even out, he’ll look a lot like the guy we’ve seen pitch in San Francisco for so long. His effectiveness with his new release point will be something to keep an eye on all season long, as the Giants will definitely need Cain firing on all cylinders if they want to compete in the NL West.

And Giants’ pitchers versus Toronto hitters:

Welp.

#SFGiants optioned OF Peguero and recalled hot-hitting 1B Brett Pill from Fresno. He’ll join the club in Toronto. Maybe serve as DH?

— Andrew Baggarly (@CSNBaggs) May 13, 2013

In 137 plate appearances for Triple-A Fresno, Pill’s numbers are absolutely insane: .333 ISO, slash-line of .341/.380/.675, and a 165 wRC+. (That’s even good for the PCL, but adjusted to the majors, he’s probably going to hit .270/.310/.400 or something.) He could be the Giants’ best option at DH. I’m really not sure, to be honest. But the Giants will likely use him at the position for the Toronto series. And, on the bright side, he’ll get that weird segment of the fan base who love him whipped into a hot, frothy mess.

Said favorite GIF:

Jusssst missed it.

Now, to the problem: Vogelsong’s 2.1 HR/9 is currently tied for second worst in baseball among starters with Mark Buehrle. If not for Milwaukee Brewer dinger machine, Marco Estrada (2.56), Vogelsong and Buehrle would be fighting for the top spot in HRs allowed. In the context of home parks, things probably look a little worse for Vogelsong. Both Beuhrle and Estrada pitch in much more offensively minded parks. (By ESPN’s MLB Ball Park Factors page, Milwaukee ranks #1 in HR; Toronto ranks #3 and San Francisco all the way down the list at #29.)

Coming into 2013, Vogelsong was the owner of a career HR/9 of 0.9, including a two-year rate of 0.8 over his past two seasons in San Francisco, a time in which Vogelsong vaulted back into major league action with incredible, mind-blowing results: 3.05 ERA, 369.1 IP, 335 H, 32 HR, 115 ERA+.

I decided to do a search of recent SPs (1990-2013) and check out those with spikes in HR rates similar to Vogelsong. Keep in mind that the pitchers I’ve looked at ended up pitching at least 150 innings and Vogelsong hasn’t even hit the 40 IP mark yet.

My criteria: 1990-2013, minimum 150 IP, ranked by biggest increase in year-to-year HR rates (as defined by HR/9).

A fairly interesting list, I think.

First, let’s look at some of the bad stuff.

•  Jose Lima was always homer prone, but he was chronically susceptible to the long ball in his 2000 season for the Houston Astros, giving up an incredible league-leading 48 HRs. But, keep in mind, 2000 was a weird time for offense. For instance: Did you know that in 2000 Richard Hidalgo hit 48 HRs? Only six players hit 40 or more HRs last year. In 2000, 16 players pulled off the feat. So, yeah, offense was a little out of control in the late-90s/early 2000s. Unfortunately for Jose Lima, 2000 marked the end of ‘Lima Time’ and pretty much his career; he would post a 75 ERA+ over the remaining (mostly awful) 600-ish innings of his career.

• Hampton’s presence on this list really hammers home the point: Where you pitch matters. Pitching almost entirely in Houston, with brief stops in Seattle and New York (NL), Hampton had never allowed more than 20 HRs in a single season. You can tell where this is going … he allowed 31 in 2001, his first year in Colorado. Hampton would battle injuries and ineffectiveness over the rest of his career and he goes down as one of the biggest contract blunders in baseball.

• I know a lot about Esteban Loaiza for two simple facts: 1) I love bizarre “out of nowhere” seasons, and his 2003 with the Chicago Whitesox (21-9, 2.90 ERA, 159 ERA+) certainly fits the bill and 2) I played a ton of MVP Baseball 2005 and he was pretty good in the game. Loaiza partially makes the list because his established HR rate in 2003 was so low (0.7), but also because he could never replicate his success in Chicago. He would pitch a few more seasons, but by age 36 he was out of baseball.

• Robert Person’s HR rate doubled from 2000 to 2001 and he was out of baseball by age 33. In hindsight, Person’s 2000 with the Phillies wasn’t too special — he walked too many guys (4.9) and his strikeout rate (8.5) was reasonable — but it’s hard to say that his jump in HR rate was a harbinger of problems to come.

The good stuff.

• A lot of these guys rebounded (or in Santana’s case, have appeared to rebound) to have decent careers. It’s hard to turn your nose up at Moyer, Vazquez, Buehrle, Beckett, Arroyo (OK, a stretch, but he’s generally non-terrible), and Santana.

• Not that it’s a point in Vogelsong’s favor, but I’ll say it again: Where you pitch matters. Check out some of the pitchers on this list and where they’ve pitched. You get places like: Coors Field, the new Yankee Stadium, and Great American Ballpark. Really hitter friendly locales.

To look at this from another angle, I GIF’d all nine Vogelsong dingers allowed.

Dinger-by-dinger comments …

1. Not a terrible pitch to Anthony Rizzo, who just goes down and blasts a changeup. Not Vogey’s fault.
2. A terrible neck-high fastball to Yuniesky Betancourt that gets crushed. Vogey’s fault.
3. Another terrible neck-high fastball to the pitcher Wade Miley that gets unloaded on. Vogey’s fault.
4. A good curveball that’s down and away from Eric Chavez, who flips the ball out of the park the other way. Not Vogey’s fault.
5. Neck-high heater that Chase Headley crushes. Vogey’s fault. I’m sensing a pattern.
6. Down-the-pipe 88 MPH heater that Nick Hundley destroys. Debatable. It’s where Posey’s glove is, but not a great pitch. Push.
7. Hanging changeup that the littlest man in San Diego hits out the park. Vogey’s fault.
8. Fastball down the middle to noted dinger master, A.J. Ellis. This one is sort of debatable, but I’ll say not Vogey’s fault.
9. Posey sets fastball away, Vogelsong throws it down and in to lefty Brian McCann. This is like the universal sweet spot for LHBs. Vogey’s fault.

So, tally that up and you get: [5] VF, [3] NVF, and [1] undecided.

And that, to me, is the biggest knock on Vogelsong so far this season. His command has been un-Vogelsong-like. We’re used to seeing Vogelsong surgically dissect hitters like this. Not so much the guy that’s chucking neck-high fastballs above. Also, in sabermetircs, we tend to believe that, given enough time, a player’s HR rate will move much closer to the league average. It’s why we have things like xFIP that normalize HR rate. (Vogelsong’s xFIP is a kinda-respectable 4.12 at the moment. Do not look at the FIP. Don’t do it.) Like most pitchers, Vogelsong needs to locate in order to succeed. And only time will tell if his current dingeritis is a sign of cracks in the facade, or if he’ll eventually find his release point or arm-slot or whatever and start throwing the ball where he wants to. I strongly prefer that second option. Strongly prefer.

Basically this is one of those posts where I write 900 words on something that I’ll eventually come to and say, “I really have no idea what’s going to happen next.”

… I really have no idea what’s going to happen next. Let’s hope it doesn’t suck.

So, one of the things to watch for — a storyline if you will — is if Barry Zito will ever pull a ball to RF in the 2013 season for a base hit. If it happens, mark your calendar, because you will have just witnessed history

Yeah, about that.

I couldn’t believe it when it happened. It wasn’t that I couldn’t believe that somehow a pitcher — Barry Zito, even — got a rare base hit and RBI, but rather holycrapdidZitojustpulltheballohmylordhwhatishappening. I know that’s weird, but I was shocked. All of Zito’s hits, save a couple of honest-to-goodness rollers up the middle, are of the LF doink variety; hits that lofted into short LF on bent-armed golf swings from Zito. It’s an ugly swing, but it’s also beautiful in its own right. Pulling the ball for a hit, to my knowledge, is something that Zito has never done.

Until this happened:

(Delmon Young fields balls like he’s trying not to step on, and crush, a bunch of baby kittens.)

First pitch hack on an 89 MPH fastball from Jonathan H. Pettibone. Baseball is weird, man. Truly weird. It’s a cliche, but it’s kind of true. A pitcher getting a hit? Kind of weird in the “Gee, that doesn’t happen much” way. Barry Zito getting a hit on a ball he actually pulled into RF? Uh, weird. Kind of bizarre, actually. But really welcome. (Zito also pitched well today, but who cares, dude pulled a base hit!)

Now, let’s update that spray chart.

Ahhh. That hit stands all alone in RF, laughing at the collection of bleeders and doinks in LF. He’s judging them. He knows he’s better than them.

Next: the quest for an extra-base hit.

The pitch:

The bat flip:

The happy:

I remember earlier in the year when Buster Posey was slumping. After 15 games into the season, Posey was hitting a meager .224/.328/.347, and looking back on it, that’s not really a terrible slash-line; he was still walking, the hits weren’t falling, but after 15 games — or a nanosecond in a full season of baseball — Posey clearly wasn’t hitting like we’ve come to expect. Selective endpoints are fun and over the last 12 games, Posey’s hit .350/.449/.725 with 4 HRs, 3 2Bs, and walk-to-strikeout rate of 8:4. Huh, how about that? Turns out that worrying about Posey’s ability to hit is really quite silly. His swing is too good, too sound to let him down. Most nights when Posey is out there, he’s throwing out quality at-bats and, lo and behold, he did just that last night when he deposited a 94 MPH Ronald Belisario two-seamer/sinker into the LF bleachers to end the game.

According to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker, Posey’s blast left his bat at 107.1 MPH, went 393 feet, and would have been a home run in all 30 parks.

Buster Posey: baseballer.

Anyway, after a five game skid when the team looked pretty lousy, things have picked up lately and the Giants now find themselves winners of their last four. Barry Zito pitched in and out of trouble for most of the night and failed to start a single inning without letting the lead-off hitter on base. Statistically speaking, Zito’s start was awful: 22 batters faced, 6 hits allowed, 4 walks, 1 strikeout, 90 percent strand rate. That’s a recipe for disaster for any pitcher, but to Zito’s credit, he induced three double plays to help limit the damage. That’s really all you can ask for from Zito — limit the damage, try and not to let things get too out of control, and keep your team in the game. It sounds cliche, but I think it’s true. Zito’s prospects for future starts are poor if he continues to pitch like he did last night, but you take the wins when you can get them. Just understand that occasionally the tightrope routine will backfire.

Brandon Belt also got totally AT&T’d against Clayton Kershaw in the bottom of the 5th. Belt, on an 1-0 count, crushed a 92 MPH fastball into right-center — i.e., where fly balls go to die. According to PitchF/X, Belt’s fly ball traveled 408 feet. Spit-balling, that’s probably a HR in most every park in baseball.

At AT&T Park it’s an out. Yeah. That’s a little frustrating. The park is one of the (many) reasons while I’ll always be so impressed by Barry Bonds’ career. In a place that was death of left-handed batters, Bonds hit .335/.526/.763. If you ever have an hour to kill, by all means go and comb through Barry’s Baseball-Reference page. It gets me every time.

Also, also: last night — which was Metallica Night — afforded me the opportunity to see Lars Ulrich pitch a baseball.

[makes joke about throwing as well as drumming]

Remember to submit your questions for next week’s mailbag. You can comment on this post, email me (chelmrtz at gmail dot com), or find me on Twitter (@chelmrtz).

Roger Munter (@rog61 on Twitter) asked:

What are your projections for San Jose’s starting six? Ceilings, most likely projections, who makes it, who washes out? 

Ty Blach threw three pitches in college: a fastball at 89-91 with a max of 94, a changeup, and a slider, and he threw them all with good command. On Draft day last year I called him a right-handed Eric Surkamp with better velocity. Blach throws a lot of strikes but has a tendency to get hit hard. I don’t have any eyewitness velocity readings for him. He gets by more on his changing speeds effectively than by just throwing smoke, which points to a longer career than a straight-up fireballer. Blach’s ceiling is a fifth starter, much like the future Surkamp had before his Tommy John surgery. At this time I think he has a better shot at winning the fifth slot in San Francisco, as my prospect boner for Surkamp was shrinking even before his surgery due to some disappointing velocity reports and overall disappointing stats.

Clayton Blackburn projects as a middle of the rotation pitcher with a big, strong build and a wide repertoire of pitches. He’s been roughed up a bit over his last few starts but still puts up strikeouts. He has advanced stuff for a high school pitcher and he turned 20 in January. Right now he looks like Matt Cain physically. I will stop short of projecting future perfectos and World Series wins on Blackburn’s shoulders, however.

Kyle Crick has a lot to live up to as the organization’s top prospect and as the leader of the future arms in the organization. He has the stuff, the build, and the mental makeup to become a big time pitcher, but since he’s so young, turning 21 this fall, it’s hard to say if he will be the next ace of the staff. If anyone in the organization could do it, it would be Crick. If not, it would be nice to have Crick and Blackburn coming up in the rotation after Cain and Madison Bumgarner in a few years.

Note that Crick suffered an oblique injury and went on the disabled list on April 28. He could miss some time. Blah. These types of injuries are hard to predict and it really sucks for a young pitcher to sit out more than one or two starts.

Edwin Escobar already has a lot of experience with 315 2/3 innings in the minors under his belt. He’s been pitching in pro ball since age 17 and he just turned 21. He has dynamic stuff and has added velocity from the early scouting reports I read from his Texas Rangers days. He has late movement on his cut fastball and this strange pitch I still can’t categorize. Is it a slider? A changeup? It’s either really hard with downward bite or just floats in and misses bats. I have no idea.

Anyway, the worrisome thing about Escobar is that he gets rattled fairly easily and has trouble going through the lineup after the initial nine hitters he faces. He has better stuff than Blach, so based on that, he should have a better shot at the fifth starter role. If not, his tailing pitches would be extra nasty coming out of the bullpen.

The Giants added another arm to the rotation after Crick’s injury. Enter Austin Fleet, who was previously fighting an inflated ERA in the Little Giants bullpen. He had allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings over four relief appearances. He passed his first test in the rotation by pitching four scoreless innings April 28.

Fleet has stuff, particularly a solid fastball, but the organization doesn’t believe in him as a starter or even a closer, which was his role at Coastal Carolina when the Giants drafted him in 2010. Still, a good fastball and good control can carry a reliever far and Fleet has both of those tools at his disposal. It would be nice to see Fleet get a shot in the bullpen to avoid spending money on free agent middle relievers.

I’ve never been really high on Chris Marlowe. He’s getting the job done in San Jose with five runs (four earned) in 21 innings of work but he has a major issue with walks, which does not bode well for a pitcher at this stage of his career. He’s older than the other pitchers in this rotation at 23 (soon to be 24) and while he has solid stuff with good velocity, his margin for error more narrow than the younger guys around him. It’s hard to see him making an impact in the rotation when Crick, Blackburn, and Adalberto Mejia are on the same club. He’s my pick to flame out.

Mejia took a few bad starts on the chin but then recovered with a nearly flawless performance on April 27 when he pitched six scoreless innings with one hit and one walk allowed. He’s advanced for a Latin American prospect, already in Advanced-A ball at age 19. He turns 20 in June and has two pro seasons behind him. His walks are a bit high and his stuff is a notch below Marlowe, Crick, et. al., but he has a good low 90s fastball, slider, and changeup. His poise is one of his best tools. He has a better chance than Escobar to make it due to his consistency and success on the fast track. I’d peg him as a middle to back end starter.

The too long didn’t read answer to this question is this projected future rotation:

Cain
Bumgarner
Crick
Blackburn
Blach/Mejia/Mike Kickham (if he gets it together; see the next question and answer)

And yes, this means that nobody currently in Fresno (other than Kickham with that major caveat) or Richmond is worthy of a long-term rotation spot.

Roger also asked:

What does Mike Kickham need to do to get a handle on his control problems? He won’t survive in majors with 5+ bb/9.

I haven’t seen Kickham pitch in person, so it’s hard to say what the problem is. To his credit, he didn’t allow a walk in his last start on April 28! He allowed his highest run total of the year with eight (six earned). Yuck. A quick glance at his stats would tell me that he needs to quit serving up home runs as he has four big flies allowed over his last three starts. He’s throwing a lot of pitches and just being generally inefficient. He’s thrown 90 or more pitches in each of his last three starts with a poor ratio of strikes to balls, averaging 55/35. His control was an issue last year as well, when he had 75 walks in 150 2/3 innings, contributing to his 1.288 WHIP. Right now his WHIP is 2.074, which is more ghastly than the BB/9 number you threw at me.

My Kickham recommendation for fantasy owners is looking worse and worse.

Robert Haymond asked via the blog:

No one that I have read has ever mentioned Devin Harris, a ballplayer 25 years of age, playing for the Giants in Advanced A Ball. The statistics this year on him are utterly fantastic. So how come this is the first we’ve heard of him? How good is he? And how is it that a 25-year-old is playing in a league usually reserved for youngsters? Harris was profiled on the Giants official website because he had homered in six consecutive games while playing for San Jose.

Harris had a pretty good year in 2011 with Class-A Augusta, hitting 15 home runs and 26 doubles, but his batting lines were low at .231/.310/.414. He also struck out a lot with 136 strikeouts in 399 at-bats. This year his OBP is the highest it’s ever been at .367 (in 24 games, yeah yeah) and he’s hitting well for power, including the recent surge pointed out by Robert. Harris just won California League Player of the Week honors. He’s still striking out a lot and he’s playing as much at designated hitter as he is in the outfield.

I don’t know what to make of Harris. The age question is valid here. He was a 48th rounder in 2010 for the Giants and such low draft picks are rarely expected to do anything, much less perform as well as Harris is. I don’t think much of Harris as a future outfielder for the Giants. I’m saving that projection for Mac Williamson. We should keep an eye on him once he gets to Double-A Richmond, though. The Eastern League will likely tell us if Harris is for real.

TSF asked a three part question via the blog.

Part the first: Is there any update on Jose Casilla? Is he still with the Giants organization?

Casilla is still in the Giants organization. He’s on the DL and listed on the San Jose roster. The club won’t comment on his status other than he’s recovering from his Tommy John surgery that occurred in August 2011. The timetable for recovery is 12-18 months, which puts us near the end of that timeline. I will follow up more as the summer drags on.

Part the second: Also, do the starters in the San Jose rotation resemble any current or past Giants in approach, poise, or pitching style?

I kinda addressed this in Rog’s question about the SJ starting six where I said that Blackburn reminds me of Cain physically. I haven’t seen anyone else pitch this year except Escobar, and his style and delivery don’t resemble anyone (in my opinion) per se. This is a good question, though, and I will watch future games with this in mind.

Part the third: Finally, who would you peg as a sleeper left-handed pitcher?

Other than Bryce Bandilla, whom I talked up last week, Mason McVay is looking pretty good right now. He’s pitching lights out in relief for Augusta with three runs allowed and 16 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. He’s also huge at 6’7″, 230, and young, turning 23 in August. He’s had impressive K/9 numbers over his brief career at 12.8 last year and 9.4 so far and managed to keep his walks low. There are a few closer candidates in the system–Heath Hembree, Cody Hall, even McVay’s teammate Tyler Mizenko who’s killing it with a 0.00 ERA, seven saves, and 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings–but McVay might force himself into the ninth inning role soon.

Thanks for the questions everyone! Please remember to submit your questions for next week’s mailbag! I will accept questions through next Wednesday night, May 8.

Thanks!

And the super cool, super slow motion shot:

The result: RBI single to RF.

I’m not sure anyone else in baseball could hit that pitch, and hit it for a base hit. What else can you say other than, “Pablo Sandoval.” Enjoy him, folks. He’s something special. (At the time of this post, Sandoval is currently hitting a cool .327/.361/.465.)