Conquering The Cards

1st July 2009 by Chris 5 Comments

Two games into a four game series, the Giants have already won two against the St. Louis Pujolses. I mean the Cardinals. Calling them the St. Louis Pujolses isn’t meant to be an insult, but being a Cardinals fan and getting to watch Albert Pujols for an entire season has got to be a lot of fun. Just like how Giants’ fans used to marvel at Bonds and his feats on the diamond, I’m sure Cardinal fans are doing the same right now.

In last night’s game, Pujols went deep twice against Randy Johnson. The first HR was on a 92 mph fastball that caught way too much of the plate and the other HR was on a 84 mph slider. Not that anyone needs to be reminded of just-how-good Pujols is right now, but check out a few of his numbers. He’s hitting a .411 ISO right now. Four hundred and eleven. Any way you slice it (1.197 OPS, +41.1 batting runs above average, +4.5 wins added as a player) his numbers are amazing.

And yet, to bring this back to a Giants-context, he still hasn’t reached some of the seasons that Bonds has had in the past.

bondspujols

It’s unfair to compare anyone to Barry Bonds, but as amazing as Pujols has been, he still hasn’t eclipsed some of the single seasons that Bonds produced. He’s come quite close but he hasn’t surpassed him, yet.  The above graph doesn’t include Pujols’ 2009 season. He’s on pace for something like a +9-10 win season this year.

A few other quick thoughts about the series thus far.

  • Don’t read too much into two games, but Renteria has looked better at the plate vs. the Cardinals. I’m still concerned about Renteria’s dropping power over the last couple of seasons (his ISO is currently at .075, a career ISO of .114) but he’s still hitting line drives 20%+ of the time. The glove hasn’t been a problem, either. By UZR Renteria is playing average defense at the shortstop position. His range is slightly below average, but he’s sure handed and doesn’t make many errors. The Giants need Renteria to hit around league average if they want to make noise in the Wild Card.
  • Hats off to Jeremy Affeldt and his relief work last night. The southpaw threw 2 innings of scoreless baseball that included a bases-loaded double play off the bat of Tyler Greene in the 6th. Affedlt’s WPA of %21.5 led all Giants players in the game.
  • How would you like to face Cardinals reliever Jason Motte? Check out this pitch sequence to Pablo Sandoval. 90 mph slider (foul), 97 mph fastball (ball), 96 mph fastball (swinging strike), 91 mph fastball (foul), 98 mph fastball (ball), 96 mph fastball (foul), 97 mph fastball (in play, out).
  • And, in unrelated news, please don’t trade for Jermaine Dye. The latest rumor du jour is that the Giants have been targeting Jermaine Dye to supplement their hitting. He would supplement team hitting (he’s added +13.6 runs by his bat this year) but at the expense of team defense. Remember, run prevention is just as important as run creation and Jermaine Dye is one of the worst defenders in baseball. Check out his last four years in the OF by Ultimate Zone Rating: -22.5 runs, -21.6 runs, -19.4 runs, and -6.9 runs. The last number (-6.9 runs) is from this year and if you prorated it to 150 games, he’s on pace for a -11.9 run season in the OF. Even with Randy Winn’s decline at the plate, there isn’t much of a difference between the two players. Can you say, lateral move?

Sadowski FX

29th June 2009 by Chris 1 Comment

This is the post you’ve all been waiting for. Please, hold your excitement because I’m about to use PFX to look at Ryan Sadowski’s first major league start. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson he’s not, but let’s check out what the 26-year-old was throwing in his first major league win.

The Stuff

Pitch # mph pfx_x pfx_z spin_dir
FA (Fastball) 41 88.94 -6.62 6.05 225.68
SL (Slider) 24 87.05 1.12 2.48 155.48
CU (Curve) 20 77.5 5.93 -5.12 56.2

Sadowski appears to work mainly off of three pitches. A fastball with some tailing action, a slider, and a curveball. PitchFX believes that he may have mixed in a couple of changeups, but after looking at the pitches, I’m not sure they weren’t fastballs. So, I eye-balled things and just called them fastballs. It’s not overly important because it seems that any changeup that Sadowski might be throwing is a 4th best pitch — ie: not something he’s going to throw 99% of the time.

Here’s the horizontal vs. vertical break for Sadowski’s pitches in graph form.

sadfx

As you can see from the data table above, Sadowski’s curveball doesn’t have huge break. It’s more of your tight breaking curve. Depending on how he’s griping the fastball, it’s going to cut in on right-handed batters and the slider is something else for righties to think about. Looks like a pretty generic arsenal to me. Let’s check out Sadowski’s velo throughout the game.

sadvelo

Sadowski mainly worked in the upper-80’s with his fastball. He touched 92.5 mph once with the pitch but generally settled in around 89 mph. The fastball and slider are both around the mid-80’s and the curveball is only pitch that’s dropping below 80 mph.

Here’s how Sadowski pitched RHB’s

sadlocrhb

Right-handed batters got the fastball in and the slider away with a few curveballs down and out of the zone. From this graph, you can see that Sadowski did a nice job spotting his slider to right-handers. It looks like he put quite a few fastballs down the middle of the plate. But, that’s where he got most of groundballs.

And how he pitched LHB’s

sadloclhb

Left-handed batters were pitched away from by Sadowski more than righties. There’s still some pitches in the middle of zone, but you can see that Sadowski make a conscious effort to stay away from lefties. Maybe not such a bad idea since lefties were hitting him the hardest in AAA.

It’s possible that Sadowski will be sent down soon to make room for an infielder like Kevin Frandsen. And if so, it’s not really a bad move to make. Sadowski’s stuff is borderline for a MLB starter. I think we can all agree that he pitched his heart out in his first major league career start. Still, the fact that he only struck out two hitters and walked three is pretty much what you should expect in the future. He did get quite a few groundballs, but getting groundballs is something he’s only been marginally good at in the minors. I’d love for Sadowski to stick around and go on an Aaron Small-type run for the Giants, but more often than not, the league catches up quickly to this type of pitcher.

What fans shouldn’t do is make more out of Sadowski’s start than needs to be. He came up, collected his first big league win, got a hit, and that should be enough for us. Congrats on your first major league win, Ryan.

UPDATE: Looks like for the time being, Sadowski is in the rotation. From Baggs:

As if Ryan Sadowski’s presence in a Giants uniform today wasn’t a big enough clue, Manager Bruce Bochy told us the right-hander will start Friday when the Giants begin a homestand against the Houston Astros.

Interesting.

Ryan Sadowski Called Up

27th June 2009 by Chris 8 Comments

From Chris Haft’s MLBlog:

The move cements Jonathan Sanchez’s demotion to the bullpen. Sanchez, 2-8 with a 5.54 ERA, has lost four consecutive games and, in the minds of Giants officials, simply wasn’t demonstrating much improvement.

I would be surprised if Sadowski makes more than 1-2 starts with the Giants. The 26-year-old right-hander has had a pretty marginal minor league career. Drafted out of Florida in 12th round of the ‘03 Draft, Sadowski has slowly worked his way up the minor league ladder one season at a time. He missed 2006 with what I’m assuming was an injury. Since then, he’s mostly been a reliever. He went back to starting with Fresno this season.

In 13 starts in AAA his numbers shape up as the following: 70.2 IP, 62 H, 30 BB’s , 55 K’s, and 4.85 FIP. He’s posted a GB% of 47.6, a K/9 of 7.0, and a BB/9 of 3.82. He looks like your typical AAA starter with marginal stuff. His MLE puts his FIP around 5.57 runs at the MLB level.

Sadowski is getting the call because Kevin Pucetas pitched a couple of days ago and the Giants didn’t want to pitch him on such short rest. It’s clear that unless the Giants are willing to dip into the well that is Madison Bumgarner or Tim Alderson, any minor league replacement for Sanchez will most likely be a lateral move with a good chance for worse performance. Sanchez has struggled this season, but Sadowski (especially) or Pucetas aren’t much of an upgrade.

Hopefully, the bullpen assignment is a quick one and Sanchez can get back into the rotation and on track.

Let Me Show You This Bowker

25th June 2009 by Chris 9 Comments

In 2008, Bowkermania hit the Giants like a hurricane. A hurricane with little stubby arms that sprayed line drives and dingers all around the ballpark. And then, poof, it was gone in the blink of an eye and 326 at-bats.

Of course, I’m talking about John Bowker. Bowker entered baseball with a bang — blasting a HR in his first career game and driving in 3 runs. And then, the next day, he did it again. Hitting another HR and this time driving in 4 runs. Bowkermania ran wild. John Bowker was playing first base and, I can’t believe it, could this be our first slugging first basemen since Bizzaro Snow’s 2004? You can imagine that it was pretty easy for Giants fans to hop on board with John Bowker.

But, eventually, things started to sputter for John Bowker. His lack of plate discipline (5.5 BB%) and mounting K’s (22.7 K%) put the breaks on his 2008 season. On August 13th he was sent back to AAA Fresno and wasn’t recalled until the rosters expanded in September. In AAA that year, Bowker hit a combined .237/.304/.355 (.301 wOBA / -6.1 runs below average for hitting) and many began to wonder: Was Bowker just a flash in the pan? Some AAA player who got called up and got really hot before fizzling?

Something strange has been happening with Bowker this season in Fresno. Here’s a picture:

bowkerbb

John Bowker has, apparently, decided to turn into Bobby Abreu in AAA. Could Bowker’s struggles in the majors actually have led to him altering his approach at the plate? I honestly don’t know. Watching Bowker become more patient in AAA can only be a good sign. It could all turn out to be a mirage and he could go back to his hacking ways at the MLB level, but I’ll be danged if it isn’t nice to see. Bowker is saying all the right things at least.

It’s not just walking, either. Bowker is a top hitter in the, admittedly hitting-friendly, PCL. His wOBA in AAA is currently sitting at .451, that’s good for 3rd in the league. His hitting has played at +26.3 runs above the average PCL hitter. His line in AAA translates to .294/.374/.464 in the majors. Be warned, AAA stats can be deceiving. If anyone needs a word of caution for judging PCL stats, look no further than 29-year-old Hector Luna. Luna is posting a .461 wOBA in the PCL at the moment. He’s hitting for massive power (.300+ ISO) and he’s got a .400+ OBP. This is the same Hector Luna that owns a career .313 wOBA in 703 major league at-bats.

Still, I can’t ignore Bowker’s walk rate and the apparent (and hopeful) change at the dish. If Bowker has truly made some adjustment at the plate, and if it translates to the majors, the Giants could have found themselves a home-grown corner OF option. But, should the Giants call Bowker up now? I’m not sure. The Giants have a glut of OF’s to play — Lewis, Schierholtz, and Torres all should rotate between the open OF spot when Randy Winn and Aaron Rowand are starting. At the moment the team seems favorable to finding Schierholtz playing time. And, unless the Giants trade one (or both) of Lewis or Schierholtz, Bowker won’t have much of a chance to find at-bats.

I’m warm to the idea of moving Lewis or Schierholtz in a trade package as a 2nd or 3rd piece, and if so, Bowker should be first in line to return to San Francisco. I won’t try and piece together trade scenarios because I don’t like reading them myself.

Hopefully sometime this summer, Bowkermania will return to baseball and return for good.

Tech Side Note: Feel free to follow Bay City Ball on Facebook now.

Comment Starter: What do you make of Bowker’s season in Fresno?

Tim Lincecum is Good; Running the Bases; Thinking About Fred Lewis’ Expectations

24th June 2009 by Chris 7 Comments

Tim Lincecum is good. It’s almost like he should get some sort of award. Something like: “Award for Guy Who Throws Good” or something. Nah, it’ll never happen. Watching Lincecum throw another CG against the A’s last night was just what the doctor ordered after watching Sanchez struggle against a largely punchless hitting A’s team.

Some stats re: Lincecum’s dominance this season.

  • His FIP now sits at 2.08. That’s the 2nd best FIP in baseball — only Zack Greinke has a better FIP (1.90). Even if you normalize his HR rate, his xFIP is 2.80.
  • Lincecum’s 10.63 strikeouts per 9 innings ranks him 3rd in baseball. Only Justin Verlander (10.84) and Javier Vasquez (10.64) squeak by Lincecum.
  • Lincecum is punching out hitters via the strikeout as usual, but what’s really encouraging is that he’s walking fewer hitters this year. Lincecum’s maturation at the big league level is pretty amazing. During his first two years at Washington Lincecum was wild, walking nearly 6+ hitters a game. His BB/9 dropped to 4.5 during his final year at Washington and since he joined the Giants, he’s reduced it even more. In ‘07 with the Giants, Lincecum walked 4 hitters per 9. In 2008 he walked 3.3 hitters per 9 and this year he’s lowered it to 2.4 hitters per 9. To be able to cut your walks like that against the highest level of competition speaks to the special talent that Lincecum possesses.
  • I think most would agree that Lincecum’s changeup has been a large reason that he’s had so much success early in his career. According to Fangraph’s pitch type linear values — Lincecum’s changeup is the best changeup in baseball.

Lincecum finished the night with a line of: 9 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, and 12 SO.

I thought it would be fun to check up on the Giants and baserunning up to this point in the season. Baseball Prospectus has a handy (and free) player baserunning section on their website. The metric — EQBRR — is defined as:

Equivalent Base Running Runs. Measures the number of runs contributed by a player’s advancement on the bases, above what would be expected based on the number and quality of the baserunning opportunities with which the player is presented, park-adjusted and based on a multi-year run expectancy table. EqBRR is calculated as the sum of various baserunning components: Equivalent Ground Advancement Runs (EqGAR), Equivalent Stolen Base Runs (EqSBR), Equivalent Air Advancement Runs (EqAAR), Equivalent Hit Advancement Runs (EqHAR) and Equivalent Other Advancement Runs (EqOAR).

In short, how many runs above or below average a player chipped in with his feet. To the numbers.

NAME EQBRR
Fred Lewis 2.77
Randy Winn 1.74
Emmanuel Burriss 0.93
Aaron Rowand 0.69
Juan Uribe 0.55
Travis Ishikawa 0.50
Nate Schierholtz 0.48
Pablo Sandoval 0.48
Andres Torres 0.45
Eugenio Velez 0.22
Rich Aurilia -0.20
Edgar Renteria -0.83
Bengie Molina -3.26

Even though he’s struggling, Fred Lewis is still adding postive runs when he’s running the bases. Randy Winn, as usual, is a very steady and solid baserunner. He’s added almost +2 runs to this point in the season by running the bases well. Most of the rest of the team shakes out as average-ish on the base paths. Bengie Molina, probably the worst baserunner in baseball, has been docked about -3 runs to this point because of his lack of baserunning skills. But, fear not Bengie, Melvin Mora (-5.6 runs) and Carlos Lee (-4.4 runs) aren’t burning up the base paths either.

Baserunning is often an overlooked component to a player’s value. Most players won’t add much to their total lines by baserunning but occasionally you’ll get players like Fred Lewis that might add up to +5 runs — or a half-win — to their total value just by running the bases well. Or, you’ll get players like Bengie Molina who could lose up to a half-win by their baserunning.

The above baserunning numbers really make me think that Fred Lewis does a lot of things that add to his value that are pretty easy to overlook. His hitting has been in a bit of funk lately, but his components really aren’t that far off from his 2008 season.

Component 2008 2009
BB% 9.8 10.2
K% 26.5 29.9
ISO .158 .139
BABIP .367 .341

He’s walking slightly more, striking out a little more, and hitting for a little less power. His BABIP has dropped from .367 to .340 and that might very well be indicative of his true talent BABIP level. Maybe Fred is more of a .340 BABIP guy than a .360+ BABIP guy. But, otherwise, he’s pretty close to the same guy that he was in 2008.

He’s still playing above-average defense in LF — currently around +6 runs per 150 games — and he’s still running the bases well. This all begs the question: What exactly did the Giants expect from Lewis in 2009? The preseason talk was mostly centered around him hitting 3rd and somehow, magically, transforming into a 20 HR hitter. It seems to me that the Giants saw Fred Lewis and were guilty of wish casting. Instead of focusing on the things he’s done well in his major and minor league career, the Giants’ had warped expectations of what he should be. The truth is that he’s going to strikeout, but he’s also going to walk and he’s going to hit for average power. He’s going to look bad on defense sometimes, but he’s still better than your average slow-footed LF by a half-win or more.

I like Andres Torres as much as the next fan. He’s been a really great addition to this team. He can defend in CF and he’s fast and he can handle the bat some. He’s a fine player. But he really shouldn’t be starting over Lewis against RHP. If the Giants want to sit Fred against tough lefties, I’m OK with that. But yanking him out of the lineup against RHP for doing pretty much as well as he always has is weird.

The Giants need to stop wish casting with Fred and frankly, and accurately, examine his strengths and weaknesses. The Giants will be a better team, both in the short term and long term, for it.

Friday Spitballin’

19th June 2009 by Chris 8 Comments

It’s Friday. The Giants are playing tonight. I’m fully caffeinated. The weekend is almost here.

Here’s some random Giants-related thoughts:

  • Did you know that Pablo Sandoval has the 16th highest wOBA in the National League right now? His wOBA of .386 ranks him ahead of such players like Ryan Zimmerman, Matt Kemp, Carlos Lee, and Lance Berkman. I’m not sure if he’ll finish the year with a wOBA in the .380’s but he’s been on a fantastic hitting streak lately. I still worry about his plate discipline, but he’s been the Giants’ best hitter by far. Which is saying something considering Rowand was on a tear at the start of this month.
  • For the most part, the bullpen has preformed decently but beware Justin Miller. On the surface his 2.40 ERA looks snappy. But, beneath the ERA it’s not a pretty sight. His K/9 of 6 is nearly two full strikeouts beneath what he was doing in Florida for the last couple of years, his BB/9 is at 4.20, and his LOB% is an unsustainable 92.6%. I was rooting for Miller to make the bullpen out of ST, so I still like him to an extent but if any reliever on the team is due for a large correction, it’s Miller — his 4.97 FIP indicates that. It’s not all negative, ZiPS’ rest-of-season projections has Miller producing a 3.98 FIP from here on out if he can move closer to his career averages. We will see.
  • The Giants have some hackers. You already knew this. But, did you know that among all hitters in baseball with at least 50 PA’s, the Giants have 3 hitters in the Top-10 for swinging outside of the strike zone? Bengie Molina (#2 – 48.8%), Pablo Sandoval (#4 – 46.2%), and Nate Schierholtz (#8 – 40.3%) all finish near the top for free-swinging hitters that go outside of the strikezone. Overall by teams, the Giants are #1 for swinging outside of the strike zone with a 31.7% team average. I’ve seen quite a few 8-pitch or less innings by the Giants offense this year. It’s hard to watch at times.
  • Aaron Rowand can’t hit the slider. This is starting to feel like a Fangraph’s post, but the site just has so much cool information. With their new pitch-type linear values, you can see how good or bad a player does against a certain pitch type. It’s based in runs and it’s compared to the league average for that pitch-type. For example: Among all qualified hitters in the MLB, Aaron Rowand has the 5th worst performance against sliders. His wSL/C — or how many runs above average Rowand is, as a hitter against the slider, per 100 pitches — is currently at -4.04 runs. Rowand’s posted a wFB/C of 1.51 runs indicating that he can handle the fastball, but not the slider. It’s always cool when stats jive with our eyes. I’ve seen Rowand swing over quite a few down and away sliders. Pitchers would do well to throw Rowand a lot of sliders.
  • Rich Aurilia should retire.

There you have it. Random thoughts (and stats) re: the Giants.

Downs Comes Up

16th June 2009 by Chris 1 Comment

Blogmaster Baggs is reporting that the Giants have optioned down 2B Emmanuel Burriss to AAA Fresno and purchased the contract of 2B Matt Downs.

The Giants optioned Emmanuel Burriss, who was in an 0-for-27 slide, and purchased the contract of Matt Downs from Triple-A Fresno. To create a 40-man spot, Triple-A catcher Steve Holm was DFAd.

Weird that the Giants call up Downs instead of Frandsen. I wonder how wide the gap between him and the organization is growing?* And could Brian Wilson throw a baseball across it? Anyways, Downs wasn’t exactly lighting up AAA with the Grizzlies. Hitting .288/.333/.453 (.354 wOBA / +2.8 runs by wRAA) isn’t exactly impressive in the PCL. But, Downs has shown some slight power potential in his brief minor league career but he still profiles more as utility player than a starting 2B in the majors.

*Correction: Actually, Frandsen wasn’t eligible to be called up because he was just sent down so recently. He has to wait 10 days after returning to AAA before he can be eligible to be recalled to the majors again. Duh.

I’ve got a feeling that Kevin Frandsen just removed the Giants from his Christmas card mailing list. Downs starts tonight and hits 8th.

Second Thoughts

16th June 2009 by Chris 4 Comments

Writing about things the Giants should do is like trying to craft the perfect sandwich out of  the worst ingredients imaginable. You really want a sandwich. You’re starved but when you look in your cabinet all you can find pickles, coffee grinds, marmite, and half-used jar of bacon flavored Cheez Whiz. The perfect sandwich? Well, It’s never going to happen. At best it’s an exercise in delusional thinking.

Still, it’s good blog fodder and there’s something the Giants should consider doing. Send down Emmanuel Burriss and recall Kevin Frandsen (after his 10-day wait is over).

The Giants insistence that Manny Burriss is not only the 2B of the future, but the 2B of right-now is head-scratching. Burriss’ noodle bat has been well chronicled in the minors — a career minor line of: .285/.347/.337 — and he’s never really hit well at any level. Burriss started off hot in the SAL in ‘07, was promoted to San Jose, didn’t hit all, and was sent back to low-A baseball where he finished the year. By April 20th of 2008, Burriss was on the major league team after never truly mastering minor league play.

In theory, for Burriss to work at the major league level he’s going to have to really play awesome defense and just be a bad hitter instead of a league worst hitter. In 700+ innings at 2B in his MLB career he rates as a +2 run defender per 150 games. That’s solid defense, but it’s nowhere near close to offsetting his bat. To this point, Burriss’ bat — by wRAA — has been worth -12.8 runs below average. That’s just in the 200+ PA’s that he’s hit for this season. If you extrapolate his current offensive production out to a full season of 700 PA’s, his bat works out to -40 runs below average. That’s a minus 4 win deficit but just hitting alone. That’s quite a hole to dig yourself out of.

Burriss isn’t a true talent -4 win hitter by his bat, but it’s definitely possible that he’s a -2 win player as a hitter at this current stage in his career. Kevin Frandsen isn’t a top prospect any more, but he’s the lesser of two evils. He should play around average defense at 2B and his bat has a better minor league track record. He hasn’t hit much better than Burriss in the majors but the Giants have to do something with 2B. If Burriss wants to remain in the majors, it’s best that he goes to AAA and plays SS for a couple of months. Burriss was another odd choice for a rushed prospect by the Giants.

It’s pretty amazing that the Giants looked at Burriss’ track record and thought “Starting Second Baseman!” instead of “Needs more time.”

Pass the Cheez Whiz, please.

Comment Starter: How much longer is Burriss with the big club?

Matt Cain’s Fastball

14th June 2009 by Chris 3 Comments

In today’s game against the A’s, Matt Cain pitched 9 innings of 1 run baseball with no walks and 9 strikeouts. Oddly enough, a major point with Cain this season has been that despite his newfound ability to win games — hint: sarcasm — some of his underlying peripherials have slipped slightly. Mostly his strikeouts and walks. There’s also been some concerns about his velocity as well.

You would be happy to know that in todays’ game, Matt Cain had one of his better fastballs of the year.

cainvelo

This plot shows the velocity on Cain’s pitches, pitch-by-pitch. The red line is the average velocity (92.8 mph) for his fastball during the start. Before entering the game today, by PFX, the average Cain fastball was clocked at 91.8 mph. Cain was throwing slightly harder today than usual. Another positive sign is that if you check his Fangraph’s velocity chart for the fastball, you can see that he’s been inching up slightly by start. I’d like to see his velocity chart by just home starts to remove any stadium bias, but it’s an interesting bit of information to sit on.

Cain is still posting an ungodly LOB% and his K/9 is still below his career levels — although it did finally breach 7 K’s per 9 IP after today’s start — but he pitched as well as you could hope for today. Of course, playing Oakland and their bottom-of-the-barrel offense didn’t hurt matters. But, the bounce-back in velocity is encouraging for Matt Cain.

Sanchez Grindy; Talking More Draftees

12th June 2009 by Chris 4 Comments

The Giants were unable to break out their orange and black colored brooms and sweep the struggling Arizona Diamondbacks in yesterday’s 2-1 loss. Sanchez made one of his “longer” starts of the year by going 5.2 innings against Arizona. But, Sanchez’s #1 problem in ‘09 came back to bite him — that problem being control or the lack off.

Sanchez’s Location (balls vs. strikes) courtesy of Brooks Baseball.

location

Click to enlarge

You can see from the location plot that Sanchez missed up in the zone a good bit. He’s still striking hitters out — he recorded 5 strikeouts in this particular game — but he still needs to get a grip on his control. With his BB/9 currently at 6.71, he’s like the anti-Roy Halladay. His 4.63 FIP is respectable but the control desperately needs to improve.

The First Year Player Draft has been completed. Let’s check out a few guys that the Giants drafted but we haven’t talked about yet.

  • RHP Jason Stoffel, Arizona – The Giants picked Stoffel in the 4th round with the 117th overall pick. In BA’s pre-draft rankings, they had Stoffel ranked as the 62nd best talent entering the draft. Before the college baseball season started, Stoffel was tabbed to be a 1st round pick but an inconsistent season cost him draft position. In previous seasons Stoffel was throwing in the mid-90’s but his fastball lost some velocity in ‘09 and he was as low as 90-91mph at times. His slider also lost some bite in ‘09 as well. I’m not a fan of drafting relievers, but if Stoffel can regain some pitch quality (velocity on the heater, break on the slider) he might move fast through the minor leagues. In ‘08 at Arizona he struck out 79 batters in 48 innings — a K/9 of 14.8. That’s the kind of arm the Giants would like to get. In ‘09 he struck out 55 hitters in 54 innings, a sharp drop in his K/9. With Stoffel the Giants have a bit of a project. If they can iron out his kinks, he could find himself in the back-end of the big league bullpen.
  • 1B Brandon Belt, Texas – MLB.com has him listed as an OF, but Belt has played first base for Texas. If you watch the video linked above, you can see that his swing mechanics aren’t conducive to hitting for power. He drops his hands and swings out of a semi-crouch. He’s made good contact while in college. He hit .340 this past season with 16 2B’s and 8 HR’s. BA notes that his hitting approach is based on going the opposite way. He was drafted as a pitcher in ‘06 but the Giants announced him as a 1B. You can add him to the pile of 1B’s drafted by the Giants this year.
  • RHP Jeremy Toole, Brigham Young – Picked up in the 10th round, Toole throws hard — touching mid-90’s — but his control is problematic, walking 53 hitters in 83 innings this year. His delivery has been described as violent which might be leading to some of his control problems. He’s also missed some time in college with arm soreness. He’s your usual ‘live arm’ but he might be able to make it in a starting role because he also throws a slider and a changeup. Good 10th round gamble.