What the Madison Bumgarner injury means (in numbers)

Earlier today, shocking news surfaced for the San Francisco Giants and their ace pitcher, Madison Bumgarner:

The Giants’ left-handed ace sustained a sprained left shoulder and bruised ribs after being involved a dirt bike accident on the team’s day off in Colorado on Thursday, the club said.

That’s from an Andrew Baggarly post.

Losing Bumgarner for any amount of time is a crushing blow to the Giants’ playoff chances. Bumgarner has been the model for consistency and dominance since he became a full-time starter for the Giants in 2011. There are few pitchers in baseball that are a lock to throw 200 innings each year and post WAR totals of 4-5 wins; Bumgarner was among them. Not to mention the general attitude that Bumgarner plays the game with and it’s easy to see how much the Giants will miss him while he works on getting healthy.

But, the question is raised: “Just how much will the Giants miss Bumgarner?”

First, a few assumptions:

  1. The Giants, as projected by FanGraphs, are currently on pace for an 83 win season. We’ll use this as our starting point.*
  2. We’ll speculate that Bumgarner would be worth 5 wins over a full season in 2017; that’s pretty much in line with his projections and recent history.
  3. We’ll assume that the Giants will have three methods to replace Bumgarner: (1) with a 0 WAR pitcher (purely replacement level production); (2) with a 0.5 WAR pitcher; and (3) with a 1 WAR pitcher.

Using those as starting points, we can calculate the loss of Bumgarner’s value over those three levels (with 0 WAR, 0.5 WAR, and 1 WAR replacements). Then, subtract that from the remainder of the projected 83 wins and you get the following adjustments.

Games Missed Win Adjustment (0 WAR) Win Adjustment (0.5 WAR) Win Adjustment (1 WAR)
10 83 83 84
20 82 83 83
30 82 83 83
40 82 82 83
50 81 82 82
60 81 82 82
70 81 81 82
80 81 81 82
90 80 81 81
100 80 80 81
110 80 80 81
120 79 80 80
130 79 79 80
140 79 79 80

You can plug in your preferred numbers and get an idea of what the team’s win record would look like. If Bumgarner misses 80 additional games on this season and the Giants get 0 WAR level production from Bumgarner’s replacement? That drops the Giants to an 80 win team. If he somehow misses just 60 games and the Giants get 1 WAR level production from his replacement, then the Giants would drop to an 82 win team.

Things really look bleak at the 120 games missed mark and beyond, essentially the rest of the season for Bumgarner. If Bumgarner were to miss the remainder of the season, or most of it, the Giants drop to a high 70s win total. That would put them much closer to the Diamondbacks and Rockies in terms of projected win totals for 2017.

5 WAR pitchers don’t grow on trees and the Giants’ replacements for Bumgarner — outside of Tyler Beede — aren’t exciting. Or, good, really. And while I’m a big fan of Beede, you can’t expect him to do what Bumgarner can do. He’s still working his way through AAA and he’s always projected as more of a mid-rotation guy than staff ace. It’s not a dig towards Beede but Bumgarner is just that good. Just that special.

Of course, things shift around if you play with our assumptions: What if the Giants are more like a 86 win team? What if they find better than 1 WAR production from Bumgarner’s replacement? What if Bumgarner somehow only misses a brief amount of time? You can adjust things where you’d like, but the math is still quite ugly.

* The Dodgers, by FanGraphs, are projected to finish the season at 93 wins. The Rockies at 80 wins. The Diamondbacks at 79 wins.

Wednesday Night Graph: Matt Cain and the two seam fastball

Matt Cain, on the back of two consecutive successful starts, has quite a few people asking the annual question of: “Is Matt Cain good again?” This question almost always invariably gets raised every year when Cain, who hasn’t had an average or better season since 2012, manages a solid-to-good start. It’s become a tradition of sorts among the diehard fans waiting for the 2006-2012 version Cain to return.

On the surface of things, Cain’s current 3.31 ERA is a bright spot, but it’s common knowledge that ERA rarely tells the whole story of a pitcher’s success or failure. Cain’s pitching predictors like FIP or xFIP suggest he’s performed more like that of a mid-5.00 ERA pitcher. His strikeout rate as measured by strikeout percentage (16.7 percent) is nearly three points off his career (19.9 percent). His walk rate as measured by walk percentage (11.1 percent) is nearly three points off his career (8.2 percent). He’s given up 15 hits in 16.1 innings pitched and his strand percentage of 90.4 percent is scary as hell.

He’s not striking out hitters like he once did. He’s walking hitters more than ever and he’s been fortunate to leave a lot of runners on base. All of that is bad. Really bad, actually.

So, when people ask the “Is he good?” question I think they know the answer already; he’s not good. It’s probably not going to happen. Baseball players age and decline. It’s a cruel fact of baseball. The projection systems seem to think he’s a half-win pitcher and given his age and recent history, that seems reasonable.

However, that doesn’t mean that Cain’s mini-success to start 2017 isn’t interesting. In fact, I’ve been looking forward to his starts. That’s not something I would have typed last year or the year before. Why do I look forward to Cain’s starts? To the naked eye, it appears that he’s trying to do things differently. And I’ve always found it interesting when major leaguers try to do something different.

Cain is throwing a two seam fastball more this season. That sentence alone might not interest you, but it’s not a pitch, historically, that Cain has relied heavily on.

Here’s the obligatory graph:

I queried the rate of two seam fastballs among all Cain fastballs since 2008. In 2016, Cain threw just 47 pitches that PITCHf/x classified as a two seam fastball; in 2017, he’s already thrown 64 two seam fastballs. The data from 2014-2016 is a little hinky since Cain was largely hurt and didn’t pitch all that much. When healthy, Cain threw the two seam fastball between 10-20 percent of the time.

Cain’s average heater is a career low 89.4 mph in 2017. It would seam that Cain is trying to focus more on movement than the traditional four seam fastball that he broke into the majors with. Years and injuries have seen Cain’s velocity drop from a high of low 90’s in from 2005-2007 to around 90 mph more recently. In that regard, it makes sense: if you are losing velocity on your fastball, might as well try to mix in some movement to compensate.

Our data table of Cain’s two seam usage rates:

Year Total FT FT%
2008 184 8.3%
2009 261 12.8%
2010 296 13.5%
2011 202 10.7%
2012 311 19.4%
2013 385 27.2%
2014 233 32.6%
2015 124 24.4%
2016 47 6.0%
2017 64 42.4%
There are a ton of caveats to throw out: we are really only talking about three starts and 15 innings of baseball. That’s beyond microscopic when talking about sample size. But intuitively it would make sense that Cain would want to try and use the two seam fastball more these days.  A successful Matt Cain is going to be the crafty version. The days of him blowing fastballs up in the zone past hitters are gone. Who knows, maybe Cain can find some kind of resurgence as a pitcher by mastering a new pitch. It’s something to watch for, even if unlikely.