Bay City Ball

Is Jonathan Sanchez gassed?

July has been an ill month for not only Sanchez, but the Giants as a team. Sanchez is currently sitting at 123 innings pitched at the major league level for 2008. In 2007, he amassed 52 innings at the major league level with an additional 23.2 innings at Fresno AAA. That gives Sanchez a total of 75.2 innings pitched in ‘07. Sanchez has made a series of quick exits from his games in July, check out his IP per start over the last 5 games.

Sanchez’s IP per start in July: 5, 4. 5.1, 2.2, 4

Those are Zito-esque performances. Sanchez isn’t staying in games and his control has been problematic. In his last two starts he’s walked 4 in each game and his BB% for July — in a stupidly small sample size of 21 innings — is at 19.5%. You’ll never confuse Sanchez for a pitcher that can paint the corners, he’s more of a “here it is,  hit it” pitcher, but walking hitters nearly 20% of the time isn’t a good sign.

In the Game Scores Plots from earlier in this month, I mused about Sanchez’s workload and how the Giants might handle it.

One thing that I’m worried about after working with these plots is how the Giants are going to handle Sanchez’s workload in the 2nd half of the season. He’s thrown 111 innings already this year and last year, between AAA and the majors, he threw 75.2 innings in total. 23.2 of those 75.2 innings came from Fresno and I’m a believer that major league innings induce more stress and create more wear and tear on a pitchers arm.

I fielded that question to you, the readers, and the response was similar: Protect Sanchez, but let him throw until he starts having problems or until he starts struggling. The problem is, where do you draw the line. How do you exactly know that Sanchez is starting to cross that workload line? His velocity was down last night and his control was poor. Both can be seen as indicators that Sanchez is tired, or going through a “dead arm” period. How he bounces back, if he can bounce back, is the question we must consider.

Sanchez’s situation is difficult because he’s taken a step forward this year. You might not know it by his last 5 starts, but Sanchez will play a very important role in the future of the Giants’ starting rotation. The Giants starting pitching depth isn’t as strong as we believed before the season started. Zito is still ineffective and we don’t know what the future holds for him. I’m guessing it doesn’t hold a return to his glory days. Noah Lowry might not ever start another game in the majors again. His arm troubles still present a huge mountain to climb. Take one of Pat Misch, Steve Hammond, Matt Palmer, and you can round out your rotation. Sanchez might not have the ultimate upside of Cain or Lincecum, but he’s just as important. He adds some stability — when he’s pitching well — and the hope that he can continue to progress as a starter.

In the wrap up, Sanchez is saying that fatigue isn’t an issue:

Sanchez continued to insist that he’s not fatigued, although his 123 innings are 2 2/3 short of his professional career high.

“I didn’t have it today, but I’m not tired,” he said.

The Giants need to continue to monitor Sanchez closely, devise a plan*, and stick with it.

*This plan does not include the “Throw more pitches, girly man” strategy of past Giants managers.

—

I can handle watching Sanchez struggle, he might have a future. But, what I can’t stand, is watching Bruce Bochy continue to start Omar Vizquel and Jose Castillo. I’ve covered Omar ad nauseum and my distaste for Castillo is known. They are not getting showcased, they are not getting traded, so why are they playing? You can’t showcase a short stop who can’t hit over .200* and you can’t showcase a terrible defensive utility man who doesn’t hit enough or defend enough to make it on any team with playoff aspirations.

It’s mind boggling. Truly, mind boggling.

Now, in a lineup related gripe, here’s your WBQOTW:

Manager Bruce Bochy indicated Tuesday that Castillo, who has started 83 games at third base, is receiving a chance to prove himself at second, where he was a regular for Pittsburgh from 2004-06.

“We want to take somewhat of a look at him,” Bochy said.

And if that wasn’t enough, here’s one to grow on:

Entering Tuesday, Castillo had accelerated his offensive pace, batting .323 (10-for-31) in his previous eight games. Castillo’s 37 extra-base hits, including 27 doubles, were tied for second-most on the team.

“I like the way he swings the bat,” Bochy said.

First, selective stats like this drive me crazy. Over a selected 8 game period, Castillo wasn’t truly horrible. Give that man a starting job! Small. Sample. Size. It’s also the same selective stats that I’ve heard used with Omar Vizquel. Did you know from July 13rd to July 23 Omar hit (.471/.500/.647), clearly he’s back as a player and we should just ignore the previous 200 AB’s that he accumulated to this point.

Second, you like the way he swings a bat? He’s second on the team in extra-base hits? Jose Castillo is a bad hitter on a terrible hitting team, this does not make him a good hitter. Sure, I could probably dominate T-Ball if I wanted to, but that doesn’t make me skilled at the game of baseball. Castillo has never been a good hitter, he plays bad defense, and what part of his (.258/.308/.407) line excites you, Bruce? Is this how far we’ve fallen? Has Jose Castillo become an attractive player for the Giants? We moved the statue of Ray Durham and replaced him with … Jose Castillo? One step forward, seven backwards.

—

The trading deadline officially ends today at 4PM EST. I’ll trade you two busted veterans and an overweight catcher for a Jeff McKnight autographed baseball card. Deal?

The All Star break is here and that means that a little more than half the season has been played. It also means that the trading deadline of July 31st is getting closer and closer. At the break, the Giants find themselves in 3rd place in the worst division in baseball with a record of 40-55. Despite sitting in 3rd place and only being 7 games out, this team has major problems. The offense is weak, the infield defense is porous, and the bullpen has been unstable. The Giants have been a bad team, don’t mistake it, but not as bad as some predicted. Thanks, lowered expectations.

Here’s my recipe for a successful 2nd half of 2008. Feel free to add any steps that you think I may have missed.

1. Trade away older veterans (Durham, Aurilia, Winn, Roberts) at the deadline.

2. Let your younger players get AB’s in the 2nd half by filling in for these traded veterans. Players such as Burriss, Denker, Schierholtz, and basically anyone that you think can BENEFIT (keyword) from major league play. This doesn’t mean you should call up players from A-ball willy-nilly — I’m looking at you Brian Sabean — but it does mean that if you want to be aggressive with some older prospects in AA/AAA — Rohlinger, Downs, Ishikawa — that this is the time to move them and see what they can do. Think of this time as an extended Spring Training.

3. Keep your pitching healthy. This means no more bullpen appearances for Tim Lincecum and watching Jonathan Sanchez carefully to see how he handles his new workload. The trio of Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez is one of the few things that the Giants have going forward that can count as a positive. We need to keep that advantage as we move forward. This is insanely vital and I don’t know how to stress it more.

4. Do not, I repeat, do not let Dave Roberts play any more than a late inning replacement or preferably, a pinch-runner for the slower players on the team. Even if a hole is created in the OF by trade, Roberts is still an expensive 4/5th OF. Resist the urges, Bruce.

5. Call up Justin Leone. Do it, it would make me happy.

This list relies on the all important step of trading away veterans, which for Giants of previous years, isn’t a very Giants thing to do. Let’s look at some of the players that the Giants might be able to move during this years trading deadline and see if anyone would want any of these players.

—

RF Randy Winn
102 OPS+, .280 EqA

Who he is: At the break Winn is hitting (.285/.355/.406) which is pretty close to his career line of (.286/.345/.423). Never a great base stealer, Winn has done an excellent job of swiping bags this year. He’s stolen 18 bases in 19 attempts. He should be able to surpass his season high of 27 bases stolen in ‘08. He plays a solid RF — the Fielding Bible had him at +13 in ‘07 and RZR has him as the 2nd best RF in the NL right now — and could play all three OF spots for a team needing some depth. His bat is weak for a corner OF spot but his defense and stolen bases add some value to his overall package and if you can stick him in CF, his bat plays much better. The negatives against Winn are that he’s due for $8.25M in ‘09 and he has a limited no-trade clause to 10 teams. The Giants would have to eat some of his salary to move him. Hopefully Sabean was blowing smoke when he told the Chronicle that he wasn’t going to move Winn. He’ll be 35-years-old next season and the Giants are crammed full of potentially interesting OF prospects that would benefit from a Winn trade.

Potential Destination: If I’m Sabean, I’ll trade Winn in-division to the Arizona Diamondbacks. With Byrnes out for the year, the D-Backs need a LF that can play defense and steal a few bags. Winn has much of Byrnes’ skillset and he’s always hit well at Chase Field, owning a career line of: (.377/.419/.689) in 106 AB’s. The Diamondbacks have been rumored to have shown some interest in the Mariners Raul Ibanez. The Mets are also another potential landing spot for Winn.

Chance of Trade: I’ll stick Winn at 50% right now and that may be too high. I’ve got a couple of fears that Winn isn’t going to be heavily valued in this trade market and that Sabean might actually want to keep him.

***

2B Ray Durham
113 OPS+, .286 EqA

Who he is: Durham is a second baseman that could help a contender who’s weak at second or who needs a switch-hitting bat off the bench. Durham, who looked absolutely cooked in ‘07, has bounced back this year. At the break he’s hitting (.293/.385/.414) and despite the loss of some power, he’s raised his OBP. He’ll never be confused for a good fielder and at times he’ll look very slow defensively but as long as he’s getting on base, you might be able to live with it. Because Durham is only signed for this year, he’s a cost effective piece for a team looking to add some more depth. The team would only have to pick up the remaining portion of his $7.5M contract for this year and then be done with him. For Durham, I’d love to get a C+/B- prospect and I’d even eat a little salary if it resulted in a better prospect.

Potential Destination: The Brewers, Mets, and Cardinals could all upgrade at 2B with Durham. The Brewers have declared that they’re going for it this year with the Sabathia pickup and might look to add some more pieces as Rickie Weeks has struggled this year. The Mets are currently using Damon Easley at 2B because Luis Castillo is injured. Even though Easley has performed decently, Durham has better numbers and the Mets could shift Easley back to a utility role. The Cardinals aren’t getting much from Adam Kennedy and might want to upgrade. On the surface, the Brewers seem like a nice match.

Chance of Trade: I’ll move Durham to 75%. He won’t cost much, is signed only for this year, and is hitting. I think a team with already good depth will pick him up to bolster their bench or a team with 2B issues could pick him up to start. Maybe our most tradeable player.

***

IF Rich Aurilia
99 OPS+, .263 EqA

Who he is: Aurilia is a utility player that has mostly rotated between 1B and 3B for the Giants. He could play SS in a pinch, though you wouldn’t want to put him out there much, and 2B if needed. Like Durham, he’s bounced back some from his ‘07 and like Durham, his contract doesn’t extend beyond this year. Currently Aurilia is hitting (.273/.330/.426) which is respectable-ish for a utility man on a contender. Aurilia should be able to be had for little-to-nothing. Any contender that might need utility help could consider him.

Potential Destination: Everywhere and nowhere. I’m not really sure where I could stick Aurilia, maybe to the Phillies? I know they’ve been happy with Eric Bruntlett’s play but he’s only hitting (.232/.314/.317) and Aurilia would give them a little more pop off the bench and at the utility position.

Chance of Trade: This is a tough one because I’m not sure what the market is for Aurilia, I assume it’s there, but are utility men in huge demand? I’ll push Aurilia all the way to %55. Which again, might seem a little high, but he’s cheap and can play a few positions. He’s less than Durham but slightly more than Winn, that seems about right.

***

OF Dave Roberts
-23 OPS+, -.139 EqA

Who he is: A speedy 4th OF that should only hit against RHP. Roberts played all of 6 games for the Giants this year before he went down with knee surgery. He’s currently playing in Fresno and over 6 games he’s hitting (.313/.476/.688). Ignore the small sample size, Dave Roberts is back! You want him, you need him. Hey, did you know Dave Roberts once stole a base for the World Series winning Red Sox? It’s true, that actually happened and by my thinking, if you trade for Dave Roberts, you’ll win a World Series. You want to win a World Series, don’t you? Roberts is due the remaining half of $6.5M for this year and another $6.5M for next year, making any trade for him unlikely. If any team was crazy enough to pick up Roberts, they’d want the Giants to eat his salary, which they should do, no questions asked. Roberts truly has no place on the Giants with Fred Lewis’ emergence as a good LF and lead-off man. You can’t platoon him with Lewis because he doesn’t hit lefties and as a 5th OF and pinch-runner, he’s very expensive.

Potential Destination: The Red Sox! Just kidding but I can’t really think of a destination for Roberts. His combination of injuries and expensiveness don’t mix well. The Giants would have to eat a big portion of his salary and the interested team would have to be convinced that Roberts is healthy. That’s a lot of “ifs”.

Chance of Trade: 1%. Even if Roberts is a proven World Series Winner, he has too many roadblocks to overcome in a deal. The Giants might be able to move him over the winter but what they shouldn’t do is give him significant playing time in the 2nd half in an attempt to boost his value. This one is a sunk cost.

***

LHP Jack Taschner
140 ERA+, 3.81 FIP

Who he is: A left-handed reliever who’s experienced success this year. Taschner owns a shiny 3.03 ERA in 32.2 IP in ‘08. He’s your classic two-pitch lefty reliever that works off of a low-90’s fastball and a sweeping slider. He’ll thrown a change on occasion but his slider and fastball are his bread and butter. The Brewers were rumored weeks ago to be interested in Taschner but any team that needed a lefty in their bullpen might give him a look-see. Because Taschner is 30-years-old, he has minuscule upside and the Giants might already have a better LHP in their bullpen in Alex Hinshaw.

Potential Destination: The Brewers have been linked with Taschner and that would be a good fit. Taschner is originally from Wisconsin. The D-Backs could be interested as they have only one lefty in their pen, Doug Slaten. Slaten has struggled some this year and has an ERA of 4.44 with a FIP of 5.06. The Cardinals have a pair of struggling lefty relievers in Ron Villone and Randy Flores, they could be interested in Taschner.

Chance of Trade: 70%. I think Taschner is one of the most movable bullpen pieces that the Giants have. He’s earning 400K this year and because of his age, this could be one of his last productive years. Hinshaw coming to the majors also makes him a little more expendable. I love Agent Jack but I think it’s his time to go.

***

RHP Tyler Walker
87 ERA+, 4.47 FIP

Who he is: Tyler Walker is a right-handed middle reliever who’s currently the setup man for the Giants. He profiles much better as a middle reliever than a late game pitcher. He throws a low 90’s fastball, a slider, and a split that he started throwing this year. He’s struggled lately and his value has to be really low but the Giants should field any offers that they get for Walker. He’s cheap — a team would only have to pay him the remaining portion of 750K — and he has some late game experience. He’s 32-years-old and won’t get any better. I don’t mind Walker in a middle relief role but the Giants continue to use him in high leverage situations. Fun fact, Tyler Walker is 2nd on the Giants for leveraged situations at 1.80, that’s barely behind Wilson’s leverage score of 1.88. That means that the Giants have been using Walker in some really important situations this year, that’s probably a testament to Bochy’s refusal to change bullpen roles. Walker has been a little unlucky this year, his HR/F% of 16.7% is above the 10-12% rate it should be. He has a career HR/F% of 10.8% and another positive Walker is striking out hitters this year at a good clip of 21.2%.

Potential Destination: The Giants have been rumored to let teams know that Walker is available. He could head to a team that needs a little stability in the middle of a bullpen. I doubt he’ll work 8th inning duties for another team this year. What about the Tigers? They rank 23rd in baseball for bullpen ERA. Zumaya and Rodney have both had injury problems this year.

Chance of Trade: It’s hard to get a grip on what Walker’s value might be in this market. I’ll stick Walker at 25%.

—

Most of the Giants trade pieces are older veterans who are winding down their respective careers. Durham and Aurilia fit this description perfectly. The team has a couple of bullpen pieces that could be moved but I’d prefer that they hang on to the younger players of Hinshaw, Sadler, and Romo. I didn’t include him, but despite Sabean’s claims on not trading any of our young starters, I’ve got the feeling that he could sell high on Sanchez if the price was right. I hope we hang on to him but I could definitely see Sanchez as a darkhorse trade candidate.

Comment Starter: Who would you like to see traded? Who will most likely be traded? Disagree with any of my percentages? Let’s hear it.

—

Other Updates

~ The Giants have signed 16-year-old from the Dominican Republic, Rafael Rodriguez. Rodriguez, who gets a $2.55M signing bonus, is a 6′5″ 198lbs outfielder who has drawn comparisons to Dave Winfield and Vlad Guerrero. Ignore the comparisons because they aren’t really fair. He is considered really raw and some have questioned if he’ll hit at the next level, but the Giants obviously saw something they liked, most likely his power and speed. Both rate as 70’s on the traditional 20-80 scouting scale. He should get into a few games in the Arizona Instructional League by the end of this year in September. It’s good to see the Giants remain active on the international market.

~ And here is your WBQOTW

“I think he’ll be a huge addition,” Bochy said. “With Dave’s experience and ability to play left and center, his speed, his left-handed bat, it would be similar to getting a free agent because we really haven’t had that all year. He has some weapons that can help us, whether it’s coming off the bench or starting.”

We’ve looked at Augusta (A) San Jose (A+) and Connecticut (AA) so far in our farm review. The earlier levels are filled with prospects who could one day reach the Giants and make an impact. Does Fresno have the same kind of prospects? Not so much. Most AAA teams these days are filled with journeymen and other players who are hoping to make it back to the big leagues. Failed prospects, flameouts, guys who got injured, etc. Teams rarely keep their legitimate prospects in AAA for any extended period of time. In ‘07 the average age of a player in the PCL was 27-years-old. If you checked the top 10 hitters in the PCL this year — when ranking by OPS — you would find names like Dallas McPherson, Val Pascucci, Nelson Cruz, and Terry Tiffee. All of these players are in their mid-to-late 20’s and aren’t really considered prospects anymore.

So, don’t expect to find prospects that will anchor your team for the next decade but you might find some pieces that can fill gaps. Let’s check out what the Giants have going on in Fresno.

RF Nate Schierholtz - Nate is one of the most dividing Giants prospects. We can call him a prospect because despite playing in AAA, he’s only 24-years-old. Nate tends to divide people because of his plate approach. He gets good plate coverage and has the ability to make contact all over the zone but his lack of discipline could be a problem. In ‘07 he walked just 17 times in 441 PA’s in Fresno. That’s a BB% of 4.5%, which is quite low. He grabbed 117 major league PA’s with the Giants in ‘07 and he only walked twice. That’s a BB% of 1.7% which is really, really low. For example, Bengie Molina has a career BB% of 4.1% and he never walks. He’s physically strong but during game time, his power seems to border on a tick above average. He’s never hit more than 16 HR’s at any level. You usually want more firepower from your RF. During his time in the majors in ‘07 he hit for high average (.304) but not much else. He was essentially a singles hitter with a double or triple occasionally sprinkled in.

On the other hand, Nate has raised his BB% to 6.3% — a career high — this year in AAA. He’ll never walk 50 times in a season but if he could be more selective at the plate his power might play better. Most scouting reports have Schierholtz as a solid defender in RF with a strong throwing arm. Schierholtz is also a good runner for his size and will surprise you with the occasional triple. He’s done a good job of reducing his strikeouts at each level that he’s played. I think the best case scenario for Nate is a Garret Anderson player type. A hitter that walks at most around 30 times a year but makes good contact, hits 30 doubles, and 15-20 HR’s all while playing a solid RF. Even though I’ve got some questions about Nate I’d love to see him play RF if Randy Winn is traded. The Giants need to find out what Nate can do at the MLB level and if they can move Randy Winn at the deadline, I think they’ll find out.

1B Scott McClain - Yeah, he’s old. But he hits laser-rocket-bombs! Even if you don’t like Scott McClain, you’ve got to admire him just a little bit. He’s a 13-year career (mostly) minorleaguer. Over those 13 years he’s hit (.270/.355/.478) with 270 home runs. He even played four seasons for the Seibu Lions in Japan. In ‘07 he hit (.267/.349/.517) in Fresno with 31 home runs. This year he’s hit (.286/.362/.487) with 12 home runs. Because he’s 36-years-old he has no room left to grow, but man, was I on the McClain bandwagon last year. After watching Aurilia and Klesko struggle to produce from the 1B position, I was ready for some McClain. He did get called up but barely played and only got 11 AB’s. I’d love to see McClain get 500 AB’s in the majors to see what he could do. He might kill some German terrorists and that’s always awesome.

IF/OF Eugenio Velez - It’s everyone’s favorite speedster with bad defense and mental lapses, Eugenio Velez! The only thing more painful than watching the 2008 Giants was watching Eugenio get picked off, drop pop-ups, and perform a variety of other bonehead plays that would make Tom Emanski spin in his grave. He’s very fast but he looked overmatched at the major league level during his brief trail run earlier this year. The Giants mercifully sent him back to AAA and he’s done well. Since his demotion, Velez has hit (.312/.363/.488) in 125 AB’s. The first thing that jumps out at me about Velez’s slash-stats is that he’s slugging .488 in the PCL. If you ever needed proof that hitting in AAA isn’t the same as hitting in the majors, that might be it. He’s already 26-years-old and we might not ever see Velez in the majors for an extended period again. I think he’ll get a callup when rosters expand but barring an injury, I’m not expecting him to get major playing time with the Giants anytime soon. Godspeed Eugenio, godspeed. Those 121 AB’s you got with the Giants were thrilling.

SS Brian Bocock - Our sacrificial lamb. Bocock was called to the majors this year after barely hitting in the California League in ‘07. He struggled to hit in the majors, which was expected, but it was really ugly. He hit just (.143/.258/.156) in 73 AB’s with the Giants. You rarely see a guys batting average almost as high as his slugging percentage. Instead of sending Bocock back to San Jose, or even Connecticut, the Giants sent him to AAA Fresno. He’s failed to hit in AAA as well, hitting just (.163/.254/.187) in a line that’s eerily similar to what he did in the majors. His glove is still top-notch but he’s hitting like a deadball shortstop and that’s not so good in the year twenty aught eight.

Maybe Bocock should dress like this?

LHP Eugene Espineli - Careful with that axe, Eugene. Espineli has the coolest name on the Fresno roster, hands down. I have no idea what Espineli throws but he’s been having a decent year in AAA and at 25-years-old, he’s not ancient. He’s also a lefty and these guys always seem to be able to get work somewhere. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft out of the Texas Christian University. This year in AAA he’s posting a K% of 21.8%, a BB% of 3.5%, and a modest GB% of 56%. He’s been tough on LHB’s who are OPS’ing just .396 against him. He could profile as a LOOGY-type reliever but with Taschner and Hinshaw, both lefties, already with the Giants, Eugene might stay in AAA for awhile. Still, not a bad backup option for some left-handed relief.

LHP Patrick Misch - I still like Misch even if he hit some speed bumps in the majors. He was super unlucky, giving up 10 HR’s in just 47 innings pitched. That’s a HR/F percentage of 23%. League average tends to be between 10-12%. In fact, most of Misch’s underlying peripherals were OK. Struck out 6.5 per game and walked 2.88 per game. Those aren’t bad stats at all from your 5th rotation spot and still better than what Zito has been giving us. He’s thrown just 34.1 innings in AAA since he went back down to the minors and he’s gotten knocked around a little, but I still like his arm. Either in a 5th starter role or a reliever.

—

Fresno isn’t stocked with talent but they do have some players that you might see on the Giants at some point in this year. Hopefully we’ll see Nate in the 2nd half of the season after Randy Winn is shipped off to the Braves from a prospect or two (oh-please-oh-please-oh-please). I doubt we’ll ever see McClain in a Giants uniform at the big league level. Possibly when rosters expand.

Velez and Bocock? Meh. I’m not really banking on either at this point. Velez is getting old and still really doesn’t have a position to play. Bocock has a position to play but he’s hitting terribly. If I had to choose between the two, I’ll take Bocock for now. He’s younger and might eventually figure out how to scrap by as a defensive specialist with a .250 batting average.

Our two lefties of Misch and Geno could get into the bullpen at some point in this season if we trade away any of the following: Taschner, Chulk, or Walker.

Comment Starter: Have a favorite Grizzly?

—

I’m adding a new weekly section to this site that I’ll randomly add to posts called “The Worst Bochy Quote of the Week” in which I’ll post the most absurd Bruce Bochy Quote I can find. This weeks’ WBQOTW is:

“He’s got power. He’s an intriguing player,” Bochy said. “He runs fairly well. I think he has the tools to be an everyday player. Now, that’s up to him. I think he’s improved his work ethic since he’s been here. I think he sees this as a great opportunity.”

Could Castillo be a long-term solution at third base?

“He has shown how talented he could be if he plays every day,” Bochy said. “I’d like to see what he’s done at the end of the year.”

My god. Bruce Bochy thinks Jose Castillo is “intriguing”.