A few thoughts on topics I missed while I was away:

~ Barry Zito continues to pitch like a man reborn. Part of Zito’s early season success has been his control. He’s only walking 2.8 per 9 right now as compared to a career BB/9 of 3.70. Zito has never been a pitcher that’s pounded the strike zone but he has put together a few average to above-average BB/9 years during his career (from 2001-2004 he was either right around league average or below for walks). He’s been throwing strikes this year and it’s helped. It’s way too early to state that Zito has returned to form, but he’s looked good. I can’t recall him pitching as well as he is right now at any time in his Giants career. Selective memory? Very possible. But he’s been impressive.

~ We all knew that the Giants should have solid pitching, but by FIP, the team is 2nd best in the majors right now. The Giants’ FIP of 3.34 places them right behind the Cardinals (3.30) and in front of the Twins (3.67). If you examined starting pitchers only, the Giants rank first in baseball, coming in with a FIP of 3.09. And that’s with Todd Wellemeyer in the mix. Yeah, they’re good.  The Giants currenly have 3 SP with sub-3.0 FIPs: Lincecum (1.98), Zito (2.66), and Sanchez (2.10). Cain just misses the cut-off with a 3.05.

~ Besides the ability to take a walk (BB% of 11.1%) Mark DeRosa has struggled. The most shocking issue with DeRosa is his power, or lack of. He’s had 15 hits on the season, 12 of which have been singles. His ISO currently sits at an alarming .071. Because it’s early, we can console ourselves just a little bit, but for a player coming off a wrist surgery, his complete evaporation of power is startling.

Overall, I outlined why I liked Penny in the post below this one, but it’s a nice move by the Giants to shape up their rotation a little as they make an improbable run for the Wild Card. Good move.

Penny will be placed on release waivers tomorrow and clear them on Monday. He can talk to other teams while on waivers, but he can’t formally enter into a contract until he clears. He would like the opportunity to start, which probably wasn’t going to happen in Boston.

Penny, the former Dodger and disgruntled right-hander, became the odd man out after the Red Sox acquired Billy Wagner to strengthen their bullpen. And with Tim Wakefield starting again, the team chose to release Penny. After Penny clears waivers on Monday, he’ll be free to sign with any team. He’s made his preference well known that he’d like to start. The bonus with signing Penny by the end of August is that he would make the cut-off for post season rosters.

Should the Giants consider bringing him aboard?

I think you’ve got to at least consider it. After missing most of 2008 (save for 94.2 IP) with an arm injury, the Red Sox signed Penny to a 1-year incentive laden deal over the offseason. On the surface his tenure in Boston doesn’t look very appealing — 131.2 IP, 160 H, 5.61 ERA. But, underneath things, there are some encouraging signs. First, Penny has regained some of the velocity on his fastball. According to Fangraphs’ pitch data, the average Penny fastball thrown this year has been clocked at 94 mph. That’s a near +2 mph increase off his injury shortened ’08.

Secondly, Penny’s BB/9 in ’08 shot up to 3.99 walks per 9 innings, indicating that his arm troubles could have affected his command. This year with the Red Sox Penny has regained his strike-throwing form with a 2.87 BB/9. That’s in line with is career BB/9 of 2.92.

Third, Penny has posted a slightly better than league average FIP in the American League (a tougher offensive league than the NL because of the DH) and has been worth +2.1 WAR on the season. You could probably shave a few points off of his 4.48 FIP if he transitioned to the NL.

What’s killed Penny this year has been, primarily, two things. He has had terrible luck at stranding runners on base. His LOB% currently stands at 64.4%. That’s the 2nd lowest LOB% in baseball. For comparison, Matt Cain has stranded over 85% of the runners he’s allowed on base this year. That’s the best LOB% in baseball. The league average for LOB% tends to hover around 70% and often pitchers will look worse (or much better) because they’ve either had really good or bad luck at stranding runners. If you adjusted Penny closer to a 70% LOB%, he’s going to look a bit better.

In addition to his LOB problems, Penny’s curveball has been absolutely crushed this year by opposing hitters. By Fangraphs’ pitch-type linear values, Penny’s curveball has been worth -16 runs (or about -1.6 wins). That’s easily the worst curveball in the majors among starters by the linear weights metric. Quickly eyeballing Penny’s PFX numbers, his curveball appears to have the same vertical break that it’s always had. He’s throwing it at the same velocity, too. Penny’s curveball has always played as an average pitch for him. Check out the run values on it during the past 5 seasons: -3.2, 0.8, 1.1, 0.8, and -16 runs. Which number looks out of place?

So, we’ve got a pitcher that’s pitched like a league average pitcher in a tougher offensive league. He’s regained some velocity on his fastball. He’s had poor luck with stranding runners. And a pitch that was previously a solid pitch for him, has rated as the worst pitch in baseball for that pitch type. To me, it seems like Penny has good upside to take a chance on. He would slot into the Giants rotation as the 5th starter by replacing Joe Martinez. The Giants could then send Martinez to the bullpen to pitch in a long relief role. The Giants would improve their rotation and bullpen with one aquisition — Miller or Merkin Valdez would most likely get pushed out of the bullpen. Ideally, the Giants would improve their hitting over the last stage of this season, but if an upgrade like Penny presents itself, I think you’ve got to take advantage of it.

I hate myself for saying it but, sign Brad Penny.

The Giants’ 13-16 record is a little misleading because the team still has some big problems, namely the ability to put runs on the board — 15th in the NL in runs scored and 14th in OPS — and play defense. The Giants Revised Zone Rating of .806 is lowest in the National League and Pythagoras says that our record should be closer to 10-19 than 13-19. This team just isn’t one or two pieces away from being good again.

But enough of the weak points, how’s one of our perceived strengths, pitching, been playing out? It’s been a mixed bag. Lincecum and Sanchez have been great, Cain has struggled some, Correia got hurt, and Zito has been tremendously bad. Let’s check out some numbers.

1. Matt Cain 1-2, 4.41 ERA

	2008      Career
FIP     4.73      3.97
BABIP   .300      .272
K%      19.7      20.2
BB%     15.6      10.5
LD%     23.1      17
GB%     36.3      36.7
FB%     40.7      46.3

The first thing that pops out at me about Cain’s numbers is his BB% which is ungodly. Cain has always had some control issues — a career 10.6 BB% that could use some lowering before he takes another step forward as a pitcher — but never this bad. In 32.2 innings he’s walked 23 hitters. In 6 starts, Cain has waked 5 in two games, 3 in three games, and 4 in one game. Even in his first win of the season against the Rockies, he didn’t pitch marvelously, having trouble throwing strikes. His release point and arm slot really got out of whack in the Rockies game and he appeared to be “slinging” the ball.

I’ve always thought that Bochy was hard on Cain last year and in the first start of this season Bochy ran Cain out for 114 pitches. His control issues will be something to keep an eye on. I think it’s easy to forget that Cain is only 23 and on precipice of the injury nexus for young pitching. Let’s hope he’s healthy.

Otherwise, most of Cain’s numbers are inline with his career. He’s giving up less flyballs and more line drives right now, which has contributed to his higher-than-usual BABIP. If Cain can move his BB% back to his career levels and give up a few less LD’s, we should see some improvement but it’s all going to start with better control of the strike zone.

2. Tim Lincecum 4-1, 1.73 ERA

	2008      Career
FIP     2.68      3.41
BABIP   .352      .307
K%      26.4      24.7
BB%      9.9      10.4
LD%     21.7      16.6
GB%     46.7      47
FB%     31.5      36.4

Tim Lincecum has been the best pitcher for the Giants in 2008, a true ace. Notice how good his numbers look despite that really high BABIP — a testament to the Giants terrible defense. I suspect most Giants starters are going to have higher BABIP’s than normal because of the defense. Balls hit into play that would be turned into outs by an average defense are falling for hits. So much for the defense part of speed and defense?

Lincecum is doing a bunch of things right this year. He cut his BB% slightly and raised his K% by almost 2 percent. What’s always amazed me about Lincecum is the amount of groundballs he gets. League average GB% is around 42% and Lincecum is 4-5% above that. His line drive percentage is a little higher than usual and if he rolls it back some to previous levels, his numbers should improve even more. Lincecum is basically the best type of pitcher you could ask for, great strike out rate and when hitters do make contact, it’s usually on the ground and easier to turn into an out. You can’t hit a groundball over the fence.

Speaking of home runs, even though I’m not posting the HR/FB percentage for each pitcher, Lincecum’s is impossibly low right now at 3.4%. He’s given up 1 home run in 36.2 innings pitched and pitchers tend to give up HR’s at a percentage of 10-12%. So, Lincecum will most certainly see some correction at some point in this season in terms of giving up the longball.

3. Jonathan Sanchez 2-1, 3.48 ERA

	2008      Career
FIP     3.41      4.21
BABIP   .304      .334
K%      27.7      23.8
BB%     11.1      11.8
LD%     15.7      19.5
GB%     39.8      38.1
FB%     44.6      42.4

If Lincecum has been the best Giants starting pitcher this season, then Sanchez has been the 2nd best. He owns the best K% of any starting pitcher, even surpassing Lincecum. His BB% is high and in a perfect world, would come down, but Sanchez has always had some command problems. When he’s throwing strikes, he’s tough on hitters.

A flyball pitcher, Sanchez gives up a bunch of flyballs which Mays Field should help suppress. Sanchez has also kept his line drives down, almost 4% under his career levels. It’s interesting to see that Sanchez’s K% numbers have actually improved this year as a starter when the previous bulk of his MLB work has been out of the bullpen, which I would assume would add to his K% numbers. Coming out of the pen you can go full steam and not have to pace yourself throughout the game but Sanchez has a stronger K% right now as a starter. FIP tells us that given Sanchez’s current peripherals his ERA is for real. Go Sanchez!

I’ve been extremely pleased with the way Sanchez has thrown so far this season — being a self proclaimed huge fan of him — but he’ll probably hit speed bumps now and then when his control problems flair up. If Sanchez could throw 160 innings as a starter this year and gradually improve his control, it would be a great success for him and the team. He’s off to a great start.

4. Barry Zito 0-6, 7.53 ERA

	2008      Career
FIP     5.82      4.40
BABIP   .346      .271
K%       7.8      17.7
BB%     10.6       9.4
LD%     19.6      19.2
GB%     36.6      38.2
FB%     43.8      42.6

As bad as Zito has been, he’s not the 7+ ERA pitcher that we might think he his. According to FIP, he’s a 5.82 ERA pitcher right now. Hey, you take the small wins wherever you can get them.

His BABIP is enormous, which can be partially linked to our terrible defense but hitters are making a lot of hard contact against Zito with a batting line of (.336/.403/.525). The usual suspects are still problems for Zito — K’s and BB’s — he’s not striking out anybody at 7.8% for his K% and his BB% has slightly moved up from his career numbers. Hitters are only swinging and missing at Zito pitches 8% of the time which means that they’re making a lot of contact and that Zito lacks the command, control, pitch quality, or velocity to induce swing-throughs.

He’s currently in the bullpen working on pitching after taking a beating this month. When was the last time you saw a Cy Young award winner get yanked out of the rotation to “work on stuff” in the bullpen? That’s not a good sign my friends, not a good sign at all. Who knows that the Giants will get when Zito comes back from the bullpen but my bet is that it still won’t be that good.

5. Kevin Correia* 1-3, 4.50 ERA

	2008      Career
FIP     5.74      4.73
BABIP   .254      .259
K%      14.8      17.4
BB%      9.2       9.5
LD%     18.3      19.7
GB%     39.0      39.0
FB%     42.7      41.3

* Correia is currently on the DL with the dreaded oblique strain that has bothered Noah Lowry in the past.

Correia is what-he-is, a decent 5th option in a rotation but the only problem is that Barry Zito has been pitching like a 5th starter if not worse. Primarily a bullpen member and spot starter in the majors, Correia had a nice string of starts to round out the ’07 season and earned himself a rotation spot for ’08. He lost some strike outs it appears from his transition from the bullpen to the rotation, that seems to be expected.

He’s a flyball pitcher that has slightly worse than average control and a slightly lower than average K%. Not too much to get excited about but he’s most likely going to be “serviceable” in the role of 5th starter but with his injury he might not come back into the starting rotation. I’d much rather see Misch get a shot in the rotation than Correia. That’s not a dig against Correia but he’s entirely average, which won’t kill you from his rotation spot, but I’ll take a guy with upside — however slight Misch’s upside is — right now rather than someone who will be average at best. If and when Lowry get’s healthy, the Giants will probably slot him into the rotation and move Correia or Misch back into the bullpen.

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The Giants have had some tremendous pitching performances early in the season. Lincecum and Sanchez have been two of the better pitchers in the NL. But the Giants have been absolutely killed by Barry Zito who could be one of the worst pitchers in the entire MLB right now. Cain has struggled with consistency and I pray that he’s not secretly hurting, I’d love to see him get on a roll. And Correia has been about what you would expect from his rotation spot, though I prefer to see Misch get some starts.

I think we can draw one conclusion from the early season and it’s that fans of this team could have drastically overstated our pitching depth. It’s something that I’ve been slightly worried with for some time since Lowry began to have injury problems and declining numbers. At this point you can’t count on Lowry and Zito to be productive pitchers, anything positive they give you is a plus. Sanchez, even with his dynamite start, still has a ways to go before we can count on him to be a corner of the rotation. Cain has struggled and I’ve got this nagging voice in the back of my head about him. And Lincecum has been an elite starter so far. To me, looks like there’s a lot more question marks than certainties right now but the rotation has a good chance to be good, maybe not “the best in the NL” as some fans had dreamed, but good. Let’s see what happens over the next month.

Comment Starter: Report card time! How would you grade our 5 starters thus far? Flunking out or star students?