Take a gander:

Yes, that’s what a 14.4 K/9 looks like. Romo struck out 106 in 66.1 innings while only walking 15 hitters. Funky motion, or not, you won’t see a better season from a pitcher’s standpoint anywhere. Romo was simply un-hittable for that year. Romo eventually made his MLB debut in 2008 at 25-years-old and, has since, been solid reliever for the Giants. In 79.2 career innings pitched at the major league level, Romo owns a 2.61 FIP that he’s paired with a 9.83 K/9 and a 2.15 BB/9. What’s been so vital to Romo’s success as a pitcher?

It’s an easy question for anyone to answer that’s seen Romo pitch: it’s his slider. By FanGraph’s pitch-type values, Romo’s slider has been worth 12.6 runs above average since 2008 — if you go by the 10 runs to 1 win rule, that’s a 1.2 win pitch for Romo. Romo possesses a frisbee slider that he throws from a few different arm angles and batters haven’t been able to touch the pitch since Romo entered the league.

The above graph indicates Romo’s slider usage this year split by batter handedness. Whiffs are represented by black circles and contact is represented by X marks. In 2010, Romo has thrown a total of 165 pitches — 67 of which have been the slider. Romo has thrown the slider 40% of the time this season, he’ll pair the pitch with a 2-seam fastball and the occasional changeup. Looking at Romo vs. right-handed batters, we can see a pretty typical usage for the slider. It’s generally in the lower half of the zone with most whiffs coming down and away from the batter. Against lefties, Romo has tended to work them away — or the “back door” slider — or down in the zone. I think from our graphs you can see the above-average control Romo has with his slider, he controls the pitch well and has tended to spot it in the right places.

More numbers on Romo’s slider:

* Of the 67 sliders Romo’s thrown this year, batters have whiffed on 18 of them. That’s a Whiff% of 26.8%.
* The league average Whiff% for all sliders (starters + relievers) thrown in the majors this year is 13.4%
* Romo posted a slider Whiff% of 14.2% in 2009
* The velocity range on Romo’s slider is between 77-79 mph

We’re looking at some pretty small sample sizes when it comes to pitches thrown and results, but Romo’s slider has been a fantastic pitch for him this year. It’s unlikely that he’ll continue to post a 26%+ Whiff% on his slider, but it’s seems likely that his slider will continue to be an above-average pitch for him. Whether or not he’ll have to add another wrinkle to his pitch selection as he progress through his career is another question that’s up in the air. Traditionally, Romo has thrown his slider almost half the time — 46% in ’09 and right around 40% this season — and batters have to know that when they are facing Romo, they’ll get a steady diet of sliders. And yet, they still have had trouble with the pitch. That makes the quality of his slider even more impressive, in my opinion.

As long as he’s healthy (my biggest concern with Romo) the Giants should have an above-average reliever on their hands. If Brian Wilson’s groin is still bothering him, you might even see Romo get a few save opportunities. For the pitcher with the funky motion and filthy slider, it’s well deserved.

Today, news is out that the Giants have promoted three of their better prospects from A+ San Jose to AA Connecticut. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson — the system’s two best pitching prospects — make their way to AA and tagging along is 2008 draft pick, SS Brandon Crawford. The Bumgarner and Alderson promotions were expected but it’s slightly surprising to see Crawford get pushed up a level. Though, as a college prospect it’s not shocking.

Crawford has been excellent for San Jose. According to First Inning’s wOBA leaderboard for the California League, Crawford’s wOBA of .440 is good for 5th place in the league. Crawford has hit for power (ISO of .219) and he’s walking some (BB% of 8.4) but he’s also whiffing a good bit (K% of 26.9). His near .500 BABIP is due for some regression as well and it’ll be very interesting to see how he handles the much, much tougher hitting environment of the Eastern League. The Good News ™ for Crawford is that his defense is considered very good and at this point, there aren’t any questions of whether or not he can stick at SS. So, he doesn’t need to hit like a #3 hitter to be a very valuable player at his position. Crawford has immediately become the best SS prospect in the Giants system. AA should be a good opportunity for Crawford to work on his plate discipline. Keep an eye on him.

Something else I noticed while browsing through the California League is that Giants prospect, Thomas Neal, is having a great start to his season. Neal’s wOBA of .451 is 3rd in the Cal League and he’s flashing some power (ISO of .276). Neal has always been a semi-interesting prospect with some power potential but position issues. He’s moved between 1B and the OF where he’ll likely remain. At 21-years-old he’s not overly old for his level, but he could use a promotion this year if he keeps hitting.

—

For the 7th time this year, the Giants scored 1 run or less in a game when they took a 11-1 loss to the Rockies last night. At 26 games played, the Giants have scored 1 run or less 26.9% of the time this season. Their offense is still in dead last for runs scored (the current number sits at 91 making them the only team under 100 runs scored). Giants first basemen are collectively hitting a .235 wOBA, good for worst 1B production in the majors.

Here’s the Giants rank by position and wOBA for the MLB:

Reeeetch.

The right-side of the infield is amazingly bad. Neifi Perez (career wOBA of .290) bad. The OF has ranged from average-ish to bad. SS and 3B have been adequate, even a little above average. And C is above-average. The Giants should give Ishikawa and Burriss a little more rope to play with, but don’t be surprised if the team makes a roster move at 1B and 2B in a couple of weeks. This type of production (and offense) is unbearable.

—

Good news on the bullpen front, Sergio Romo is throwing in extended ST.

From SFGiants.com:

Romo has been sidelined since Spring Training with a sprained throwing elbow. But Bochy said that the 26-year-old pitched a game Tuesday without incident in extended spring training at the team’s Scottsdale, Ariz., training complex. Bochy said that after one more outing, Romo likely will report to either Class A San Jose or Triple-A Fresno to pitch and make sure his arm is in shape.

A healthy Romo would be a boost to the bullpen and would most likely knock out someone like Brandon Medders. I’m always concerned when a pitcher has an elbow injury and the Giants should take it slow with him.

A post today on four potential relievers that the Giants might consider to replace Sergio Romo if his elbow prevents him from beginning the year with the Giants. The four relievers are: Billy Salder, Justin Miller, Brandon Medders, and Osiris Matos. For now, I’m assuming that either Taschner or Hinshaw will make the team if the Giants decide to carry just 11 pitchers. Both could make it if they carry 12 pitchers. Either scenario leaves the team with 1 remaining bullpen position — Romo’s vacated spot — to fill.

Merkin Valdez doesn’t make the list because he’s yet to throw this ST and his health is always a major concern. Keiichi Yabu has been optioned to AAA and Sabean will look to “trade” him, but I’m not sure any team would actively trade for Yabu. I just can’t see that happening. The one pitcher that I left off this list of four that could make the team is Luis Perdomo. But, Rule 5 picks are generally a longshot and he doesn’t have a whole lot of minor league data to examine. He’s your basic live arm with slight control problems and promising stuff.

The following graphs depict K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and FIP. Also, the 2009 CHONE projection is included. Let’s check them out.

Candidate #1 is Billy Salder. Salder had a brief — if unspectacular — run in the majors last season. Salder throws a fastball in the mid-90′s that he compliments with a big curveball around 79-80mph.  What Sadler doesn’t have is control. Over two years in AAA, he’s posted BB/9 rates of 6+ per nine innings. His K/9 rate went from very strong in the minors — 12.54 in ’07 and 11.18 in ’08 — to slightly above average in the National League. The average K/9 rate of a NL reliever in 2008 was 7.5, Sadler posted a 8.53. During his callup, Salder was still walking almost 6 guys per 9 innings — not good. His control will most likely continue to be a problem for him going forward. CHONE does project Salder to boost his K/9 to around 10 per innings — which would be above average — but his BB/9 will hold steady at slightly under 6 walks per 9. CHONE has his FIP projected at 4.18. In my WAR calculations, I’ve set the replacement-level for relievers at 4.50. So, Sadler does beat the RL in this projection.

Justin Miller is probably my favorite candidate to fill Romo’s vacancy. He was drafted by the Rockies in the 5th round way back in the 1997 First Year Player Draft. He was primarily a starting pitcher in the minors but it was a role he never had much success with. Around 2005, he started relieving and he ended up with the Marlins in 2007 as a reliever and posted some great numbers. His work in the ’07 bullpen for the Marlins stands out: 3.06 FIP, 10.80 K/9, and a 3.50 BB/9. He battled elbow inflammation problems in 2008 with the Marlins and was eventually released. When Miller is healthy, he throws a 89-91mph fastball and a ton of sliders. In the last two seasons with the Marlins, he went to his slider 46-48% of the time. CHONE is projecting a similar season to 2008. His projected FIP of 3.60 it the best among our group of relievers today. If Miller is healthy and can get past his elbow problems, he’s got a decent chance to break with the team if Romo is hurt.

Brandon Medders is another pitcher in camp with Big League Experience(tm). The Giants seem to be evaluating him heavily because he’s already thrown 4 innings for the team. Medders is the definition of a replacement-level reliever. His 2005 with the D-Backs was a little flukey because of an unsustainable LOB% of 89.4% in 30.1 innings of relief. He’s only thrown about 40 innings combined over the last two years, but the spike in his walk-rate is a little concerning. Medders chances will rest on how well he performs this ST and how heavily the Giants will weigh his BLE. All things considered, he’s my least favorite reliever of this bunch. CHONE has him projected to throw a 4.47 FIP, pegging him exactly at replacement-level.

Matos is a 24-year-old reliever that made the jump to the majors last season after working in AA and briefly in AAA over the past two years. Matos is a two-pitch reliever that relies on a fastball/slider combo to get by. Be sure to look at his AA stats with a skewed eye, because he was pitching in one of the best ballparks for pitchers in the minor leagues — Dodd Stadium. In 88 innings pitched over two years in AA Matos only gave up 3 HRs, that’s more to do with his pitching environment than any skill-set he possess. In the majors last year he was an extreme flyball pitcher — 51% of his BIP were of the flyball variety. A few prospect followers really like Matos — Sickels had him rated 12th in the system this year which I thought was laughable — but during his time in the majors, I didn’t see much. He throws a fastball in the 90-92mph range and has an average slider. I’m not sure where his ceiling is, but it’s most likely in middle relief and not a setup or closers role. For 2009, CHONE has him projected to a 4.35 FIP, ever-so-slightly better than RL.

A Ranking to Wrap Things Up

If I had to rank the relievers in order of most desirable to least desirable, I’d probably go with something like this:

1. Justin Miller – He’s had the most success as a reliever at the major league level and he offers to best chance for better than replacement-level production. Health is a concern, but if he’s feeling good,  he’s the guy.
2. Billy Sadler – I hate myself for picking Salder as the #2 — I’m convinced he’ll be the type of pitcher that will forever tease you with potential but will never deliver — but he is somewhat tantalizing. If he could ever improve his control from ‘terrible’ to just ‘bad’ he could be useful. I’ll keep wishing…
3. Osiris Matos – I think his upside is small, but he’s young-ish and could prove me wrong. In his brief time in the majors last season, I just didn’t see the appeal. He pitched well for two years in one of the best minor league parks for pitchers. I just can’t get over that. His 9 innings pitched at Fresno last season doesn’t do anything to quell my park-related apprehensions.
4. Brandon Medders – I think he should get the Brad Hennessey reward for relievers. They remind me a lot of each other. Both have four-pitch arsenals but really lack a one true strikeout pitch. He would be a decent 12th reliever on a team, but if we’re replacing Romo, we want someone who can handle higher-leveraged situations.

Comment Starter: Give me your ranking for replacing Romo.

From SFGiants.com:

Romo hadn’t pitched since last Thursday, when he allowed six ninth-inning runs (three earned) in a 16-7 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. At the time, Romo’s lack of sharpness seemed odd, since he had pitched winter ball in Mexico.

Bochy downplayed Romo’s ailment. “He had a touch of it last year and was fine,” Bochy said.

Given Spring Training’s duration, which is about a week longer than usual due to the World Baseball Classic, Bochy said that Romo still has time to pitch himself into consideration for the Opening Day roster.

Losing Romo to injury would be a strong hit to bullpen depth. Romo has been a steady riser through the minor leagues, getting results at each level he’s pitched at, and his trial run of 30 IP in the majors last season was considered a success. From our Team WAR projections, we’ve got Romo projected to add about a half-win to the bullpen — which makes him a hair less valuable than new relievers Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry.

It’s possible that Romo’s bullpen spot could be filled by someone like Osiris Matos or NRI’s Brandon Medders and Justin Miller. I’ve been a fan of Miller since he signed as a minor league free agent. Brandon Medders has MLB experience, but it’s been largely uninspiring. His career FIP of 4.67 reminds me a little too much of Brad Hennessey. Justin Miller struggled as a starting pitcher, but he posted two solid FIP years with the Marlins — 3.06 and 3.88 — from 2007-08. CHONE has him projected to throw a 3.60 FIP next season, which would rank him in the upper-end of the bullpen. A Romo-injury could also mean that Rule 5 Draft Pick, Luis Perdomo might get a bigger chance to make the team. Perdomo throws a mid-90′s fastball from a low 3/4 arm angle that he compliments with a hard, tilty slider in the mid-80′s.

Yabu and Taschner haven’t looked good so far in ST, but it’s only ST and I wouldn’t bury them yet. I don’t think either pitcher has a good chance to perform well for the bullpen, but they’ve only thrown a combined 4.2 innings between them.

Which brings me to today’s comment starter, if Romo can’t start the season with the Giants, who would you like to see take his place? You can find ST stats for the pitchers in camp, here. Really, though, you should take them with bowling ball-sized grains of salt. ST stats are historically useless and for pitchers that have only throw 1-2 innings so far, they are even less reliable.

Comment Starter: Which pitcher in camp would you replace Sergio Romo with?

Some assumptions before we get started:

~ I’m using the Dodger Sims method for calculating WAR for our pitchers. You can read about how to calculate it for yourself, here.

~ I’ve set replacement level for starters at 5.50 and relievers at 4.50

~ I’ve also included a leverage index for the relievers and starters. This doesn’t really affect the starters, but pitchers that work in late game higher leveraged situations — closers and setup men — will get a boost to their WAR numbers.

~ For pitcher projections I’ve used a combination of Marcels, CHONE, and ZiPS. I tried to use CHONE more for players without major league data.

Let’s examine the spreadsheet:

• In the post yesterday, we talked about the 20 win gap that the Giants would have to make up with their pitching in order to be competitive in the NL West. Fortunately for the Giants, their pitching, once again, will be their biggest strength. As of now, I’ve got the Giants pitching — starters and bullpen — projected to be worth around +17 wins above replacement. It’s not the +20 wins that we were aiming for, but it’s pretty close. Those extra 17 wins added by their pitching moves the Giants to an 82-83 win club. We’ll talk more about this later, but for now let’s examine the pitching more in depth.
• Our starters, by WAR, shake out as follows: Tim Lincecum (+4.95) Matt Cain (+3.42), Jonathan Sanchez (+2.07), Randy Johnson (+2.06), Barry Zito (+1.62), and Noah Lowry (+0.32). Tim Lincecum is really, really, really good and much of the rotation’s success will be tied to his ability to stay healthy and pitch at a dominant level. Matt Cain often get’s overlooked, but he’s adding almost +3.5 wins which is very good, it makes him more valuable than Randy Johnson and Sanchez who both are chipping in for around +2 wins a piece. Zito is adding about +1.6 wins and I’ve got Noah Lowry throwing 50 innings of slightly above replacement level ball.
• I’ve got new guy, Randy Johnson, projected to throw around 150 innings in 2009. I don’t think we can expect much more from the 45-year-old even though he threw 180+ innings in 2008. Much like the defensive numbers, I try to stay conservative for innings pitched projections. You’ll notice that none of our starters broke the 200 IP mark, despite having two pitchers — Lincecum and Cain — who surpassed that mark last season. Back to RJ, even though he’s projected to ‘only’ throw 150 innings, his 4.20 FIP is still quite good making him a valuable addition to the starting rotation.
• Marcel, ZiPS, and CHONE all remain semi-optimistic on Barry Zito. I would love to see him post a FIP of 4.65 but I won’t be holding my breath.
• You can see why many still remain high on Jonathan Sanchez. He’s projected to contribute as much as Randy Johnson in 2009. Despite his high ERA in 2008, he displayed some very nice underlying peripherals — mainly his ability to miss bats — last season. If Sanchez has a ‘breakout’ season, the rotation could pick up 0.5-1 wins.
• I frankly have no idea of what to expect for Noah Lowry next year, so I tentatively penciled him in for 50 innings pitched. If you really disagree with that assessment, you can replace him with 50 innings of a generic replacement level pitcher. It will slightly knock down the win total for the rotation, but nothing drastic. The Giants aren’t depending on Lowry next season and we shouldn’t really expect much from him.
• Talking money with the starters, Lincecum is still an amazing value — the best in baseball? He’s projected to put up just under +5 wins as a starter making him worth something like $24M for such a performance. The Giants are paying him beans, for now, and he’s rewarding them very nicely. Matt Cain is also a very good value. He’s pitching more like a $16M pitcher than the $2.65M he’s getting paid. Randy Johnson is valued between $9-10M and he’s making a base salary of $8M, making him a fair market buy for the Giants. Sanchez is getting paid the league minimum and is projected to pitch more like a $10M pitcher. The Giants have several very cost-effective pitchers in the rotation, the one pitcher who isn’t, is Barry Zito. Zito will earn $18.5M next season and is projected to pitch closer to a $7-8M pitcher. The Giants are nearly paying Zito twice for what he should be earning. That’s not good.
• In total, the rotation is adding +14 wins above replacement to the team. Tim Lincecum is responsible for nearly 35% of the wins provided by the rotation. If you ever needed a reason why the Giants should not grind his arm into dust and keep him healthy, there you go.
• Now, to the bullpen. The revamped ‘pen is headed by Brian Wilson (+0.86), Jeremy Affeldt (+0.87), Sergio Romo (+0.51), and Bob Howry (+0.30).
• The bullpen is adding about +2.75 wins to the overall team and it could bump up a little if Wilson can out pitch his projection. Though, I think a 3.75 FIP for him is pretty spot on. The bullpen might change a little between now and the start of the season — Hinshaw could get bumped, as well as Taschner — but these shouldn’t impact the total WAR for the ‘pen by that much. I think we might see a pitcher like recent Rule 5 selection Luis Perdomo get a chance to pitch in the bullpen. Yabu isn’t guaranteed of a spot this year and Justin Miller might be a darkhorse candidate to win a spot.
• Overall, the bullpen looks much improved. The Giants essentially replaced Tyler Walker and Vinnie Chulk with Affeldt and Howry.
• You’ll notice that I added in 80 innings for ‘Other Relief Pitchers’ in the bullpen. This should take care of guys getting the call to fill in spots in the bullpen. We’ll assume that they’ll be league average relievers — an ERA of 4.50 — and no better or worse. Think of these ‘Other RP’s’ as guys like Geno Espinelli, Osiris Matos, Erick Threets, etc.

When you combine position players and pitchers, I’ve got the Giants projected to be an 82-83 win team next year. That should put them pretty close to contending in the National League West. There was some good debate in the comments section from yesterday’s post on just how many wins it should take to win the NL West. Some thought my assessment of 86-88 wins was a tad high. I think around 85 wins could bring the division home. I don’t necessarily think it’s likely but, the Giants are a better team heading into 2009 than most people realize. I think the big ‘if’s will be as follows: if Sandoval can defend adequately at third, if Tim Lincecum will continue to be a +4-5 win pitcher, if Randy Johnson can throw 150 innings, if Aaron Rowand can rebound defensively, and if the new bullpen additions pitch as well as they are projected to. Mix in a few breakouts or repeat performances — Fred Lewis shows that his 2008 was for real — and the Giants could be in the mix.

This team won’t score a lot of runs, but the pitching should allow the Giants to be better than they look by just their batting lineup. The rest of the NL West is either in transition, looking for parts, or in flames. Meanwhile, the Giants have a semi-competitive team that didn’t mortgage the future for the Adam Dunns of the world. They haven’t traded Sanchez for Jorge Cantu — yet! — and are in a position to surprise a few people if things break their way. Best of all, even if things go wrong, players regress, and the team doesn’t win 80+ games in 2009, they’ll be in a better position for the 2010 season and beyond.

Comment Starter: Can the G’s contend?

We are going to look at Giants pitching this morning by comparing RA/9 and tRA. RA/9 is Runs Allowed scaled to 9 innings, it’s like ERA but it includes every run allowed — earned and unearned. tRA is a newer pitching metric but I think it’s very interesting. tRA weights the series of events that can happen when a pitcher throws the ball (K, BB, HBP, LD, FB, GB, HR) and scales it to R/9. Thus, giving you an idea of the expected number of runs a pitcher would give up by the frequency of the series of events that can happen — listed above — when a pitcher throws the ball. It’s defense neutral and park neutral. Much of what happens when a ball is in play is out of the pitchers control. tRA supplies every pitcher with a theoretical neutral defense, removing very-good and very-bad defenses that can play behind a pitcher from the equation. Park effects can also greatly affect a pitcher — ask anyone who pitched in Coors Field pre-humidor — and tRA adjusts for a park neutral environment as well.

If you’re familiar with FIP — Fielding Independent Pitching — just think of tRA as a more nuanced version of FIP. FIP only takes into account 4 outcomes that can happen — HR, BB, HBP, K — while tRA considers several more. tRA scores are free to browse on StatCorner.com

So, because tRA looks at the core of what’s happening when a pitcher pitches — and removes the park and defense from the equation — it will give us an idea of how well a pitcher pitched. How well his line “should have” looked. This is useful to us because as the Giants continue to transition into next year, we can examine those who are useful parts to the team and those who might have been pitching over their head and be due for a correction — all things staying the same — next year.

Let’s check out the plot and data table. You’ll notice that the graph has two sections. One for those who “Underperformed” — or those who had tRA’s lower than their actual RA/9 — and those who “Overperformed” — or those had tRA’s higher than their actual RA/9 . The closer to the line, the better the match between RA/9 and tRA. The data table has each individual player’s RA/9 and tRA listed. In addition, I’ve also included the Difference (Difference = (RA/9-tRA) -.04) between each measure. The (-.04) is the adjustment between the league averages of RA/9 and tRA in the National League in 2008.

RA/9 vs. tRA

Click to enlarge

A quick note about the graph. tRA and RA/9 data is from the role that the pitcher pitched the most in. For example: Kevin Correia’s tRA of 5.93 — and his corresponding RA/9 — are only from his time as a starter. It does not include the 7.2 innings he pitched as a reliever. I’m only looking at pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in either a starter or reliever role. As a result, I tossed out the relief appearance from Linecum. Brad Hennessey had 30+ overall innings pitched, but not more than 30+ in either a starting or reliving role, thus he didn’t make the list. Just remember, the RA/9 and tRA’s are from the role in which the pitcher accumulated the most innings.

Thoughts:

• You’ll notice that Matt Cain ended up in the overperforming section of the graph. This indicates that his tRA was higher than his actual RA/9. Cain had a difference of about a half-run between his RA/9 and tRA. Cain’s RA/9 was a hair under 4.0 and his tRA was 4.45. I wouldn’t let this freak you out for a couple of reasons. The league average tRA for National League starters in 2008 was 4.77. So, Matt Cain is still a good bit above average for starting pitchers in the National League. It might not be the sub-4.0 RA/9 that many hope, but he’s still giving the Giants value. tRA probably doesn’t like the fact that Matt Cain is an extreme flyball pitcher. He was 8th in the majors last year among all starters in FB%. Another reason that his tRA is higher than his RA/9 is that Matt Cain gave up the most line drives ever in a season last year. His LD% of 21 was the first time his LD% broke the 20% barrier. Line drives can fluctuate quite a bit from year-to-year, so you shouldn’t take Cain’s higher LD% as a developing trend.
• tRA thinks Tim Lincecum’s CYA season was for real. He landed right on the line between RA/9 and tRA. As far as controllable pitching events go, Lincecum controlled the most important one — strikeouts. He led both leagues in K% with a score of 28.71. Nearly one third of plate appearances against Lincecum resulted in a strikeout. If you can’t hit the ball in play, you’re not going to do much damage. Also, while no one is going to confuse Lincecum with Brandon Webb, he had a league average groundball rate.
• Zito’s season wasn’t a result of bad luck or great luck as he performed pretty closely to his tRA. He finished within 0.25 runs of his tRA. He did slightly underperform his tRA but he’s still a 5+ R/9 pitcher if you go by tRA. What’s killing Zito is that he walked a ton of hitters last year. The league average starter had a BB% of 8 last year. Zito’s BB% was 12.47. Only three pitchers — Tom Gorzelanny, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Fausto Carmona — had higher BB%’s. Carmona had injury problems in 2008 and many speculated that Gorzelanny was pitching hurt. Dice-K’s season was maybe one of the weirder pitching seasons in recent memory. Zito was never going to be confused with control artists like Jamie Moyer or Tom Glavine, but a 12+ BB% is ridiculous. Zito’s K% is also below average at 14.67. League average K% for starters is around 16. Most signs point to Zito being unable to throw strikes and when he does, he’s unable to strike hitters out. These are important controllable events for a pitcher and if Zito continues to slip, the Giants are going to be pulling their hair out if they aren’t doing so already.
• Among our starters, Jonathan Sanchez had the biggest differential between his RA/9 and his tRA. Sanchez underperformed his tRA by almost 1 full run. I really like Sanchez as a potential breakout candidate next year because tRA thinks he pitched closer to 4.20 R/9 than 5.00 R/9. If Sanchez’s true talent level is somewhere around 4.20, then he’s going to be provide a very nice value to the Giants. A 4.20 ERA starter in the National League that pitches 180 innings is worth about +2.5 wins over replacement. That’s nearly a value of $12.5M for the Giants. Sanchez struggled in the 2nd half last year but you can’t deny that he misses a lot of bats when he’s pitching. By K%, Sanchez was 12th in all of baseball with a score of 22.59. Sanchez is between Dan Haren and Javier Vazquez by K%. His BB% is higher than league average — 10.79 last season — but if he can remain a 22+ K% he’ll still be of value. If Sanchez can improve on his control some, he could take the next step forward and have a breakout season. This is why I’d much rather hang on to Sanchez and hope he hit’s his upside — and that $12.5M value — than trade him while his value is lowered — or perceived to be low — for one dimensional player-types like Jorge Cantu. Don’t be fooled by Sanchez’s ERA last season, he pitched much better than it would indicate.
• The bullpen has a couple of bright spots. Wilson’s RA/9 of 4.67 was 55 points higher than his tRA, indicating that for the outcomes he was producing he was a little unlucky. Wilson has an above average K% for a reliever but his BB% is higher than league average for relievers. He showed some groundball tendencies which will help him keep the ball in the park. Much like Sanchez, if Wilson can take a step forward with his control he will improve. tRA loved Sergio Romo. He had a differential of slightly more than 1 run between his RA/9 and his tRA. His K% was above average at 25.39 and his BB% was also above average at 6.15. Romo is flyball reliever but his HR/BIA — Home Runs per Ball in Air — wasn’t low or high, it was right around average. Marcel projects Romo as a 3.84 reliever next year and the Giants would be thrilled to get that performance from him. Replacing Tyler Walker with Sergio Romo could be a big upgrade for the Giants. Taschner’s tRA surprised me some. I’d rather they didn’t tender him a contract, I can take him or leave him.
• Kevin Correia was poor in the starting role last year. His tRA is pretty much spot on with what he actually did. He’ll probably be pitching out of the Oakland bullpen if he makes the team. I like Correia much more in the reliever role. Chulk wasn’t any good last year and it might be awhile before resurfaces in a major league bullpen again.
• If I had to name one reliever from last year’s team to be due for a significant correction, it’s Alex Hinshaw. Hinshaw overperformed his tRA by 1.8 runs. That’s a huge difference between the two and the single largest difference for any pitcher on our list. Hinshaw’s problem is that his control is awful. His BB% of 16.20 is nearly 7 points higher than league average BB% for relievers. He’s got great raw “stuf” — his average fastball was clocked at 92.4mph last season — but little idea of where it’s going. At times watching Hinshaw pitch last season it looked like he was just throwing as hard as he could. If he can improve his control, he might make it but I can’t think of many relievers who walk as many hitters as he did last year.
• Billy Sadler and Keichii Yabu are also relievers who drastically overperformed their RA/9′s. Sadler is basically the right-handed version of Alex Hinshaw. He’s got good stuff, but his control is poor. His difference of 1.71 runs between his tRA and RA/9 was 2nd to Hinshaw. Yabu was a great story last season but he also pitched over his head to a degree. The difference between his tRA and RA/9 was 0.75 runs. At this point, I believe that the Giants are making Yabu win his bullpen spot in the Spring. That’s not a bad idea. He’ll be 40-years-old next season. He was a great story.
• Pat Misch “underperformed’ his tRA by a whopping 0.89 runs but he was still pretty bad. I’m not sure how much you can draw from Misch’s 34 innings as a starter last season. He was incredibly unlucky with the HR — 11.59 HR/BIA when the average for starters is 6.5 — which just killed his numbers. I still like Misch as a 5th starter/bullpen reliever and that’s probably his absolute upside right now. He’ll be 27-years-old next season.

The bullpen has a few suspects — Hinshaw, Salder, and Yabu — but Wilson pitched better than his RA/9 would indicate. Romo was fantastic in his time with the Giants. Because Romo only pitched 34 innings at the MLB level last year I’ll temper some of my expectations, but I think he could be one of the stronger members of a revamped bullpen. I’m not too worried about Cain’s tRA in 2008, he posted very good tRA’s from 2006-2007 and I’m hoping 2008 was blip instead of a trend. Most projection systems that I’ve seen have projected Cain very favorably for next season. Lincecum will be the keystone of the rotation. If Zito can get his ERA under 4.50, I would be thrilled. I’m not sure it’s going to happen just yet, but we’ll see. How sad it is that in just two years into the Zito deal, we would all be ecstatic to see a sub-4.50 ERA season? And for goodness sake, hang on to Sanchez.

*Also, apologies in advance if any of this is unreadable. I’m trying to move my hands to type but they keep clubbing the keyboard like huge, fleshy mallets. I blame you, Dextromethorphan.

Some Giants news around the series of tubes today:

~ I watched most of Game 1 of the World Series last night. I definitely watched enough to see ex-Giant Pedro Feliz go 2-3 with a BB. In Petey’s first AB of the night he looked downright patient. He took a walk on 4-5 pitches and trotted up the first base line. “Who was that guy?” I wondered to myself quietly. He didn’t hit the ball hard, but he flicked a couple of singles into the OF off of Kazmir. I’m rooting for the Rays but I actually missed Pedro this year. Having to watch Jose Castillo play 3B will do that to a man.

~ Speaking of Feliz; his defense took a step back this year. Giants fans know what a tremendous defender Feliz was at 3B during his tenure with the orange and black but it appears that he might have lost a little something in ’08. According to John Dewan’s +/- defense system, Pedro was +21 and +27 plays above average at the hot corner through ’06-’07. That’s Scott Rolen level defense. In ’08 for the Phillies, Feliz dropped to +7, which is still very good but not as good as his time in San Francisco. He had back problems this year which may have contributed to his slight decline. After watching him for a few innings last night I thought he was moving a little stiffly.

~ Andrew Baggarly updates his blog with a brief mention that the Giants have voided their $625,000 deal with Dominican right-hander Luis Mateo. Turns out the Giants didn’t like the findings of some medical reports on the young pitcher. BA has some more information on the situation from an October 3rd posting.

~ ELM has his tinfoil hat on and he’s wondering if Buster Posey might be due for a position change in the near future? The Giants have back-and-forthed Posey between the HWB and Arizona in order to work on some passed ball issues. He’s now back in the HWB and catching. I doubt the Giants will try any position changes with Posey right now. He’s had a long year and his value fits best at catcher. The Giants might be tempted to move him way down the road if he can’t handle the position but he’s got a good chance to stick behind the plate. I haven’t seen any scouts who’ve questioned his ability to play catcher. In fact, most were surprised at how quickly he picked it up. Teams will usually give players every chance to play themselves out of positions.

~ Sergio Romo is having a nice start to his Winter League assignment. Romo is currently pitching for the ‘Aguilas de Mexicali‘ in the Carribean Baseball League. He’s closing for his team and in 4.2 innings pitched, he’s earned 4 saves while striking out 5. He’s yet to give up an earned run. Romo should enter ’09 as the Giants setup man.

Romo’s pitches all graded out as average across the board. Average fastball. Average slider. Average changeup. Average curveball. But, Romo had above average control and command of the strike zone. Letting him stick his pitches wherever he wanted them. Think of him as the anti-Zito. He also slings the ball and will mix up his arm angles, adding in an element of deception to his pitching style.

I think sometimes that when relievers come into the game, we want them to fit the reliever archetype. They must have an element of intimidation. This is often achieved through poor facial hair choices or goofy celebratory antics. And they must throw the heat. We all want heat. We’re a nation addicted to the radar gun. This is why Brian Wilson will probably have more fans than Segio Romo. He has that little soul patch and some tats. That’s a check for the facial hair. If and when he converts the save, he’ll drop down that goofy ‘X’ sign he makes when all the players are running onto the field. That’s a check for the antics. And Wilson throws in the mid-90′s, further adding to his appeal. Check, check, and check.

Romo is the opposite of the reliever archetype. He doesn’t have crazy facial hair. He doesn’t initiate celebratory flailing on the level of K-Rod when he strikes a guy out. He doesn’t give props to MMA — I’ll never understand why Wilson does that — via a series of wrestling moves when he throws a clean inning. And he probably won’t dance an Irish jib like Papelbon. On a good day his fastball might top 90mph. He’s almost boring.

Boring isn’t bad because he’s also been very good. He threw 3 innings of relief against the Dodgers and didn’t give up any runs. When was the last Giants reliever that threw 3 or more scoreless innings of relief in 2008? It’s only happened 4 times this year. Romo has done it twice. Most recently before yesterday on September the 2nd. Pat Misch did it in June and Keichii Yabu did it in May.

Here’s some plots from Romo’s relief appearance against LA yesterday.

First, the basics. Romo primarily threw his fastball in relief. Of 33 total pitches, 24 of them were fastballs. He’s getting great movement in on right-handed batters with his fastball. It’s moving, on average, 10.35 inches in on righties. That’s nearly 6 inches more horizontal movement than Tim Lincecum is getting in on righties with his heater. And Lincecum’s fastball has nice movement. So, despite some velo concerns about Romo coming out of the minors, an average of 88.7mph on his fastball, his movement looks to be very, very good. His slider and curveball are breaking 7-8 inches away from righties. Romo is a right-handed pitcher and his breaking stuff will move away from RHB’s. Neither his curve or his slider get tremendous vertical break but they move more along the horizontal axis.

Here’s the break plot, horizontal and vertical, on these pitches.

You can see how the fastball (green grouping) drastically moves in on RHB’s. The slider and curve might be having some crossover, but they are moving away from RHB’s. Only a couple of curves dropped below the negative markings on the vertical plane, indicating that his breaking pitches have more tilt than downward bite.

This is a plot that I was looking forward to doing. Romo will vary his release point depending on situation and this plot shows that. You can see where he dropped down a few times to sling two fastballs and one slider. Otherwise, his release point grouping looks pretty consistent. It’ll help Romo if he can mix his pitches when he drops down. That will help to keep hitters on their toes if they know that they could get more than one pitch from that angle instead of just a breaking ball over-and-over.

Our last plot is pitch location based on pitch-type. Romo threw his fastball in all sections of the strike zone. You can see that his control was as advertised. Everything was near, in, or around the strike zone. He worked his slider in the zone and his curve was more likely to be thrown outside of the zone. Romo threw 11 pitches to left-handed batters, all 11 of them were fastballs. Makes sense because the fastball will cut away from lefties. He threw all of his breaking pitches, the ones that move away from RHB’s, to right-handed hitters. Looks to be a good game plan to attack hitters. Kudos to Molina and Romo.

—

A bunch of stuff to like about Romo. His control looks to be very good — he’s only walked 8 hitters in 31.1 innings pitched — and he’s getting some great horizontal movement on his heater. Romo should take over Tyler Walker’s 8th inning setup role in 2009 and if Brian Wilson is traded, injured, or inneffective, he could work his way into the closers role at some point. That is, if he’s not accidentally DFA’d by next year.

Did Sergio Romo just get DFA’d by accident?

From Andrew Baggarly’s blog:

I’m told that Romo was still on revocable trade waivers when the Giants optioned him, which is not allowed. Therefore, he was designated for assignment. I’m told that trade waivers supercede in this case…so it’s a bit tangled. Will the Giants lose Romo, an arm they value, for nothing? I’ll find out.

To potentially lose a valuable bullpen arm because you don’t understand how the waiver-wire system works, is just amazing. How long have you been a GM?

If Romo is lost to the waivers, this will be truly amazing. I will be angry. Updates to follow.

Update

Crisis averted.

A little explanation on Romo: The Giants probably put him on revocable waivers because a potential trade partner was interested in him. Or they wanted t ogauge the general the level of interest. No matter the reason, you cannot option someone when they are on revocable waivers. (I’m up on most roster rules, but that’s a new one for me.)

Anyway, and this is the important part, the Giants insist the oversight will not result in losing Romo to another club. When you designate a player, you take them off your 40-man roster and have 10 days to waive, release or outright him. Before those 10 days are up, the Giants will revoke Romo off waivers be able to option him at that point. He’ll remain on the 40-man roster. Romo said he expects to join Fresno in Salt Lake on Friday.

Next: The Giants accidentally sell Tim Lincecum’s rights to Japan!

From SFGiants.com:

Chulk, 29, will spend 72 hours on waivers while the Giants try to trade him, which is unlikely to happen. He indicated that if he isn’t claimed, he would decline an outright assignment to Triple-A Fresno.

Because Chulk won’t accept a minor league assignment, this is the last we’ll see of him. Chulk, who was the other player coming from Toronto in the infamous Shea Hillenbrand trade, pitched well for the Giants in 2007 before his season came to a close because of circulation issues related to Buerger’s Disease. In ’07 Chulk posted an ERA of 3.57 and a FIP of 3.33.

Chulk was mostly used in mop-up situations this year and struggled to get in a groove. He has an ERA of 4.83 and a FIP of 5.38 this year. Expect for another team with poor depth in the bullpen to pick him up. As for Sergio Romo, I’ve written about him as recently as last week. I’m a fan of him and I’ll be excited to see him pitch on TV. He doesn’t blow away hitters but has had pretty good success by deception and great command and control.