This is one of my favorite nerd days of the year. Go check out the latest ZiPS at Baseball Think Factory, courtesy of Dan Szymborksi. Quick thoughts: The best starting lineup by position players is — OPS+ scores in parentheses — 3B Sandoval (127), 1B Belt (121), C Posey (116), RF Melky Cabrera (106), LF Huff (103), CF Gary Brown… Read more →
February is a pretty useless month, sports-wise. One of its few highlights is the annual release of PECOTA , Baseball Prospectus’s projection system. A lot of projection systems just tell you that a player’s future will look like his past, with some age adjustment and regression toward league average thrown in there. While PECOTA has plenty of that thrown in… Read more →
Ah, yes. I love projection systems, especially ZiPS. Dan Szymborski — creator of ZiPS — has posted his projections online today for the 2011 Giants squad. Go give them a look-see. Points of interest: * The Giants have 6 players (Posey, Sandoval, Huff, Belt, Ross, Burrell) with an OPS+ of 100 or greater. * ZiPS has Sandoval bouncing back to… Read more →
Giants’ ZiPS were just released late last night. Head on over to BBTF to check them out. Good Stuff: Lincecum get’s an amazing projection, Cain looks very good, Sandoval is a 129 OPS+ hitter, and the bullpen trio of Romo, Wilson, and Affedlt looks very nice. Bad Stuff: Our 2nd best hitter wasn’t tendered a contract, our 3rd best hitter… Read more →
Brief update today, the 2010 CHONE projections have been released. You can find them, here. Free agents are listed, here. The pitching projections have not yet been released. Just the hitting projections to this point. Interesting projections: Nick Johnson .264/.395/.407 Mmm, OBP. Johnson’s slugging has been down in recent seasons (especially in 2009 when he posted an ISO of .114… Read more →
(Warning: Long post) (Edit: I’ve updated my data a little, instead of using my Giants projections from my 2009 Team WAR post, I decided to just run CHONE across the board for every team. Overall, this didn’t really change the rankings but I thought it would be fairer to do it this way.) Today we’ll be examining the National League… Read more →
I’ve been playing around with EditGrid this morning and I made a few graphs relating to the 2009 Giants WAR projections. There really isn’t any new information presented in these graphs, but they might help some to see just where the wins are actually coming from. I like this pie chart because it shows — in my opinion — how… Read more →
Projecting the 2009 Giants team with Wins Above Replacement.
Today, I’ll be starting my 2009 Wins Above Replacement projection for the Giants. I’ve done some WAR-related stuff on this website before, but if you’re new to the idea, check out this link. It’s a good place to get started. Also, FanGraphs just posted a two-part article on Win Values. It’s also a very good read and I suggest that… Read more →
Tom Tango has just released his yearly projections via his projection system Marcel. You can find them on FanGraphs — individual player pages or sortable leaderboards — or you can download the entire .zip file on Tango’s own website. Marcel is a very basic projection system that uses 3 years worth of data, with the most recent production weighted the… Read more →