So, when Todd Wellemeyer went down with his right quad strain, I was hoping the Giants would recall Martinez. You never wish injury on any ballplayer, but Wellemeyer has been maddeningly inconsistent this year (6.33 FIP, 5.37 BB/9) and when the Giants recalled Martinez I hoped he would impress — or at least be serviceable in his start — to convince the Giants to let him take over 5th starter duties for the time being.

Martinez lost his start against the Orioles but — my personal biases aside — I think he pitched pretty well. Martinez’s ability to throw strikes essentially makes him the anti-Wellemeyer and he was never really hit that hard by the O’s. The O’s seemed to whack a bunch of groundballs that either found holes or were misplayed by the defense. Besides his control, here’s what I really like about Martinez: his 2-seam fastball.

Pictured above is a graph of all the fastballs Martinez threw in his start against the Orioles. As usual, the graph is from the vantage point of the catcher — sitting directly behind the plate. You can see that Martinez’s minor league walk rates aren’t a fluke, he genuinely has a good feel for his fastball and has the ability to throw it for strikes. On the night, Martinez threw 55 fastballs.

Some numbers:

* 34.5% of Martinez’s fastballs went for strikes (Called, Swinging, Foul).
* No batter whiffed on any Martinez fastball — he did have a few whiffs, but they both came on changeups.
* 20% of Martinez’s fastballs were hit on the ground. You can chalk that up to the horizontal movement of the 2-seamer — nearly 8.5 inches on average
* Batters made contact against 43.6% of Martinez’s fastballs.
* The average velocity on Martinez’s fastball is right around 89 mph. He topped out at 91 mph.

I think the graph sums up Martinez pretty well. He’s not going to strike a bunch of hitters out, but his minor league K/9 numbers suggest he has at least some ability to occasionally miss bats. What he will do, however, is pound the zone with strikes while mostly throwing his 2-seam fastball. The 2-seam fastball that Martinez features does have some nice horizontal movement. The pitch will run in on right-handed batters and away from lefties. I’ve likened Martinez to a poor man’s Aaron Cook before and I still think the comparison is appropriate. Both are pitchers that will live and die by the groundball and Martinez has posted a better K/9 in his minor league career as compared to Cook — 7.05 vs Cook’s 6.1. Martinez is better than Todd Wellemeyer right now and until the Giants feel comfortable promoting Bumgarner, he’s a fine option for the 5th rotation slot.

Do the right thing Giants, release Wellemeyer and give Martinez his starts.

For the purpose of today’s post, I wanted to try and examine Lincecum’s slump to see what was going on under the surface. It’s a rudimentary look, but I examined three components of Tim Lincecum: Ball%, Strike%, and Strike Swinging%. Then, to break down those three categories by pitch-type with the help of Pitch FX. I divided his pitch data into two crude sections: Pre-Slump (all starts before May 15th) and Slump (all starts after May 15th). Not the most scientific approach, but one that will hopefully shed some light or at least stimulate discussion on Tim.

A quick word on the three categories and what they are.

Ball% – Every pitch classified as a ball. Easy enough.
Strike% – Any pitch that resulted in a strike (Called, Swinging, Foul).
Whiff% – One the most important indicators for dominant pitching. The amount of times a batter takes a swing at a pitch and misses completely.

Now, the data:

Pre-Slump	Total#	Ball%	Strike%	Whiff%
CH		188	25.0%	60.6%	33.0%
CU		129	41.9%	41.1%	8.5%
FB		392	38.0%	48.2%	7.4%
SL		53	34.0%	49.1%	13.2%

Slump		Total#	Ball%	Strike%	Whiff%
CH		95	32.6%	50.5%	23.2%
CU		81	56.8%	33.3%	9.9%
FB		230	39.6%	43.5%	7.0%
SL		27	37.0%	37.0%	3.7%

And the difference in percentages between the two — difference = (slump – pre-slump).

Diff.	 Ball%	Strike%	Whiff%
CH	 +7.6%	-10.1%	-9.8%
CU	+14.9%	-7.8%	+1.3%
FB	 +1.6%	-4.7%	-0.4%
SL	 +3.1%	-12.0%	-9.5%

Across the board, Tim’s changeup was thrown for more balls, less strikes, and batters swung-and-missed at it less than before the slump. Because I pulled the data purposely from when Lincecum was struggling, we shouldn’t be shocked that the numbers are down from earlier in the year, but what I think is interesting is how the numbers are down. Tim’s best pitch, by a large margin, is his changeup and during his slump it appears that he’s lost a feel for the pitch — throwing it more for balls and getting less swing-throughs. It’s not all bad, though. Batters are still swinging and missing at the changeup almost a quarter of the time. Even when he’s slumping that’s quite impressive and it indicates that pitch is still quite effective for Lincecum.*

*The league average changeup this year has a Whiff% of 14.2%

If we look at the rest of the pitches between his pre-slump and slump periods, the results are very similar for our three categories. He had a large increase in Ball% for his curveball, but I would chalk that up to a sample size of just 81 pitches rather than a problem with the curve. His Strike% is down, but that should correlate somewhat with the slight rise in Ball% for his pitches. As the changeup goes, so goes Tim Lincecum. It’s heartening to see that the change is still garnering a good clip of swings-and-misses. Lincecum’s bounce-back will begin with the changeup: throwing it for strikes will be key. Once that happens, I think things should sort themselves out. Lincecum should take the hill again on June 7th against the Reds in Cincinnati. It should be a challenging matchup for Lincecum. Not only are the Reds the 2nd best team in baseball on offense by wOBA  — .352 team average, behind only the Yankees — but the Great American Ballpark has a reputation as a bit of a launching pad. If Lincecum can have a positive outing, it should go a long way to suppressing our fears.

I’ll be waiting and watching the changeup.

A visual:

Even when the count moves to 3-2, Lincecum is still going to throw the changeup 48.9% of the time. It’s a testament to how fast he’s developed a feel for the pitch. In 2010, by FanGraphs’ pitch-type values, Lincecum’s changeup — just by itself — has been worth 11.4 runs above average. That’s a 1-win pitch and by the time the season ends, it’s likely to be closer to 2.5 to 3 wins. Any pitch that’s 1.5 wins above average, or better, can safely be called one of the best in baseball. Roy Halladay’s cutter, Zack Greinke’s fastball, Adam Wainwright’s curveball all fall into this category. Lincecum’s changeup is amazing, but you already knew that.

Part (2) deals with Lincecum’s huge strides in control. While in college, from 2004-2005 Lincecum was walking 6+ hitter per 9. He lowered his BB/9 in his senior year to a “strike-throwing” 4.5 walks per 9. When Lincecum reached the majors, something changed with his ability to throw strikes. It got much better. In his first season in 2007 Lincecum walked 4 batters per 9 — but since ’07 he’s lowered his BB/9 or kept it in the low 3′s: 2008 (3.3), 2009 (2.7), and 2010 (3.4). Control has been the main problem with Lincecum’s mini-struggle.

Details from his past 3 games:

The past 3 games mark the first time in Lincecum’s career that he’s walked 5+ batters in 3 consecutive starts. All games have a similar thread running through them — the walks — but the past 2 games are much more alike than his start against Houston on May 15th, which wasn’t actually all that bad. High pitch counts as the result of walking hitters have knocked Lincecum out of his last 2 starts. Where does his current loss of control rank among Tim’s career?

Using the fabulous BB-Ref, we can search for consecutive games in which Lincecum walked at least 4 batters. Here is the Top-5 results:

I think it’s very telling that 3 of the 5 are from the ’07 season in which he was still figuring himself out as a pitcher.

—

As they say, “Where do we go from here?”. Over the past 3 starts, it’s the most walks we’ve seen out of Lincecum since ’07 and the first time that he’s ever walked 5+ in 3 straight games. Before the game last night there was some talk about a blister that Lincecum is currently dealing with. The post-game wrap on SFGiants.com has both Bochy and Lincecum shooting down the blister theory as a reason for his recent mini-skid

What is not a source of complaint is a blister problem that seems to have gone viral. He developed one during Spring Training and has dealt with them through his entire professional career.

“It’s a non-issue,” Bochy said. “We wouldn’t pitch a guy with a blister. He’s fine and he’s going to make his next start.”

Lincecum confirmed the non-issue. “It’s nothing,” he said. “I go through them all the time. It had nothing to do with anything.”

Pitchers get blisters all the time and I’m sure — as the quote from Tim says — that it’s not the first time he’s pitched with one. The question then, if it’s not a health problem, becomes is it mechanical? It’s possible, but I’m not a mechanics expert. Watching Lincecum on TV last night, his mechanics looked “normal”. He was missing high and he didn’t seem to have a great feel for his breaking stuff, but pitchers often don’t when they’re struggling. It’s all too easy to freak out when the Giants’ best player isn’t performing like we’ve come to expect, but Lincecum seems to be a pretty smart guy that’s especially in-tune with his mechanics and the art of pitching. In the long run, I think he’ll make the adjustment or whatever needs to be made. It’s way too early to start panicking after just 3 lackluster starts — even if they came from Lincecum.

If a player is not traded, and clears waivers, he may be released from the team. The player is then a free agent and may sign with any team, including the team that just released him. The team that releases him is responsible for the salary the player is owed, less what he is paid by the team that signs him. In practice, that amount is usually a pro-rated portion of the Major League minimum salary.

A quick word on Ramirez and why he might interest the Giants. Ramirez is a 6’3″ right-handed reliever out of the Yankees organization that has also spent time in his earlier years with the Angels. He works off of a 88-89 mph fastball that he’s thrown 53% of the time in the majors and a plus-changeup (that’s sometimes been called a “Bugs Bunny Change”) that he’s thrown a hair under 38% of the time. He has a slider but it’s usage has been minimal. By FanGraphs pitch-type linear weights, his changeup has been an above average pitch for him in his 98.1 career innings in the majors — over that time-frame his changeup has been worth a total of +7.6 runs above average. He sells the change really well and it’s his best pitch. He’s not a hard-thrower, but his fastball and changeup combo has devastated minor league hitters.

Ramirez’s career minor league numbers:

Note: some of his years cover different levels and leagues. To get a more specific breakdown of Ramirez’s number in the minors, check out his BB-Ref page.

Yup, those numbers should be enough to interest any team. Ramirez hasn’t had the same level of success in the majors as the minors. He’s still had the ability to K hitters with a career K/9 in the majors of 10.62, but his BB/9 at 5.13 is well above his minor league control numbers. CHONE is projecting him as a 4.37 FIP reliever for the 2010 season — making him more of a back-end bullpen guy than a late inning reliever. But Ramirez does offer plenty of upside, especially in the NL. His minor league numbers are fantastic and a smart team needing to round out their bullpen should check in on Edwar. If the Giants picked him up, I’d rank rank him above Brandon Medders, and maybe even Waldis Joaquin or Dan Runzler.

Other links on Ramirez: Neyer | THT | River Ave. Blues

Big thanks to Joe Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X Tool for providing the data. My deskstop is still packaged away, and with it my database. All numbers from the 2009 season.

The two horizontal gray lines indicate the standard strike zone by height. Matt Cain, being a flyball pitcher that goes for strikeouts, is more likely to pitch batters up in the zone with his fastball. Cain has a FB% (flyball percentage) of 45% over his career — indicating that he’s more likely to give up flyballs than any other batted ball. His career K/9 of 7.5 is above average for a starting pitcher in the National League. In 2009, the average SP in the NL struck out 6.8 batters per 9. Cain is almost a full strike out better than league average. This fastball location profile seems to mesh with what we would expect for Cain’s pitcher-type. Cain works up in the strike zone with his heat.

Affeldt had an interesting season in ’09. He owns a career GB% of 48.8% which indicates that he’s got some groundball tendencies. But, last year Affeldt’s ground ball percentage shot all the way up to 65%. As a result, Affeldt induced 18 double plays — leading all relievers in baseball. As you can see from his frequency graph, he kept his fastball down in the zone (much lower than Cain) where batters are more likely to hit it on the ground. I don’t think Affeldt is a true talent 60%+ groundball pitcher, but his game plan should remain the same: keep the ball down. Over his career since he switched to relief full-time, he’s been successful by following that approach.

It all adds up to another reason why I like baseball so much. You’ve got two pitchers with two great fastballs, but they use them in two opposite ways to achieve success.

A few assumptions before we begin:

~ I’m still using the same method for pitcher WAR as I used in last year’s post. Check the link if you want any more information on it.

~ Replacement level for starters has been set to 5.50. For relievers it’s set to 4.50 runs.

~ I used the CHONE projections for 95% of this post with a few tweaks here and there. CHONE is an awesome projection system and the ZiPS database hasn’t been fully released just yet.

~ For the defensive projections I’m working off of Jeff Zimmerman’s 2010 UZR Projections. He’s projected every defensive player for 2010 with an age adjustment. Good stuff.

Now, let’s check our numbers out.

• Right off the bat I’ve got the Giants projected as an 83-84 win baseball team for 2010. If you’ve read the Giants 2009 projection post, they were projected as an 82-83 win baseball team. I’ve said more than once that I’m not sure the Giants have actually improved themselves heading into 2010, as this initial projection seems to validate that idea some. DeRosa in LF isn’t an improvement over Fred Lewis (and maybe even John Bowker — but DeRosa does have some value from his versatility), even with a dead cat bounce Huff isn’t projected to be any better than say Ishikawa, and Freddy Sanchez will improve the 2B group — but his health concerns shouldn’t be taken lightly.
• The Giants did win 88 games last season after we projected them to win 82-83 wins. That’s over our numbers by 5 wins or so. A couple of things helped the Giants play over their heads last season: they fielded an exceptional defensive team, their pitching was incredible (clearly the best Giants pitching team in almost 50 years), and they were a “clutch” team (by FanGraphs, the Giants were the 6th best team in baseball for clutch performance). Being clutch isn’t something that you can’t rely on from year-to-year and the Giants accumulated nearly +3 wins because of it. Realize that it’s just as likely for the Giants’ luck to swing the other way, and instead of 88 wins, you end up with 78 wins. It’s a good reason why to not treat baseball performances as static and say: “OK, we won 88 wins this year, add a player here, a player there, and 90 wins!”
• Some numbers. The top 5 Giants players by projected WAR: Lincecum (6.1), Pablo Sandoval (4.1), Matt Cain (3.6), Jonathan Sanchez (2.5), and Nate Schierholtz (2). Not surprising that 3 of the 5 are pitchers. The Giants pitching is by far their best team strength. Projection systems always love Nate (calling him a slightly better than league average hitter with +6 defense in RF). I would love to see Nate live up to that projection this year but I’m skeptical on him. He looks great on D in RF, but his hitting approach leaves something to be desired. If he’s a league average hitter with +6 defense, he’s a starter on this team and quite valuable.
• More pitching thoughts: Zito turns in a slightly below average performance (1.7)  in 190 projected innings pitched. He’s earning $18.5M these days and continues to be a vast overpay. But most Giants fans (me included) would be happy if he can hang around 2 wins for awhile. Brian Wilson’s projection (1.6) is very solid for a reliever. The elite guys in the bullpen tend to pitch around 2 wins per year. Wilson took some great steps forward last year with his components and if he can hold them steady, he should be in for another good year.
• The bullpen also projects some solid performances from Affeldt and Romo but outside of the top three pitchers in the ‘pen, things drop off. Medders is a replacement level reliever that out-pitched his peripherals last year. Runzler and Joaquin have some promise, but control issues in their past make them a little risky to project as sub-4.00 FIP relievers.
• I’m calling Bumgarner (0.7) the 5th starter for now even though I would prefer that he start the year in AAA. Look for the Giants to bring in someone like Todd Wellemeyer to fight for the 5th spot. Bumgarner does offer some upside vs. his projection. He could be a spot on the Giants were they could add an extra win.
• On the hitting side of things the Giants could improve themselves in a few places: (1) As soon as possible use Posey behind the plate. He’s set to almost outproduce Bengie Molina in just 25% PT as compared to Bengie’s projected PT of 60%. Catcher is one of the few areas on the Giants where a clear and reasonable upgrade is available. (2) Play John Bowker. Bowker gets the 2nd best projection for hitting on the team behind Pablo. Bowker probably won’t be in the open RF competition in ST, making his avenue to the team narrow. But a poor hitting team like the Giants just can’t ignore the possibility of a .350 wOBA hitter on their roster. I’ve got Bowker backing up in RF and LF, but you can probably cut that back at the moment — taking down the total team WAR a few runs. (3) If Huff looks done, don’t be afraid to play Ishikawa at first base, he still profiles as the better player. (4) This also applies to Renteria vs. Uribe.
• Uribe comes back to earth in 2010 but his defense is still good enough in the infield that he should be the preferred sub at 2B/3B.
• Aaron Rowand gets a below average projection (1.6) in 80% PT. I find Rowand to be a pretty volatile player. He’s going to be an average hitter in most seasons, but his defense, which has also been average, could go quick. He’s projected as an average defender in CF for next year but if he posts, say, a -5 run season in CF, he’s going to be lucky to break 1 win. The Giants tried to rest Rowand more last year to help his bat and he was basically the same hitter. His defense did bounce-back, though. Only three more years left.

Feel free to click around the spreadsheet above and check out the numbers. The 2010 Giants team looks pretty similar to the 2009 team. The Giants are going to have to hope that last year was for real and that they’ve actually improved themselves over this offseason. I’m not seeing in right now in February. The team is still weak on offense and there’s reason to think the defense (losing Winn, reduced PT to Ishikawa, Renteria, Rowand) might take a step back. The pitching should be very good again but any missed time to either Lincecum or Cain (or even Pablo, or if he regresses) and you can kiss the season goodbye. The Giants don’t have the depth on offense/defense to make up for any missed time in the rotation. Once again, the rotation will carry the team with a below average offense.

Before you jump into the comments section, check this post from Dave Cameron on what projections are. Because these projections can sometimes bring out the worst in people, please keep your comments respectful in the comments section or I will edit them with pictures of sheep.

Comment Starter: How many wins do you think the Giants will net in ’10? Is it enough to win the NL West?

It wouldn’t be totally crazy to start the season with Bumgarner in the rotation, but I’m not sure it’s the best situation, either.

The yeas would break it down like this:

• He excelled in the minor leagues
• His velo drop could be the result of his workload and not any physical issues
• The Giants think he’s ready and I’ll trust their judgment. If it’s one thing I trust the Giants on, it’s pitching

The nays respond:

• Outside of his fastball (which was a lot slower in the majors than scouting reports) Bumgarner really only has 1 pitch. It’s a terrific pitch, but it’s all he has.
• He’s yet to top 140 innings of starting in a season. Why not ease him along? Let him develop in AAA (working on pitches and stamina) and then bring him up.
• If you call him up late, you can delay his arb-clock. The Giants might have learned this the hard way with Lincecum.

I have to admit, at this point, I’m siding with the nays. It’s not completely crazy to start Bumgarner in the majors, but it’s also not completely crazy to eat a mayonnaise and broccoli sandwich. Hey, it could be good.

There are a few remaining free agent pitchers on the market — do any of them fit with the Giants? Let’s check them out. I’ve listed 3 groups of pitchers. ‘Could Be Expensive’, ‘Old and/or  Injured’, and the ‘Scrap Heap’. I think each group is self explanatory. Also listed in ()’s is the 2009 pitching stats of that pitcher.

Could Be Expensive

Jarrod Washburn (176 IP, 5.11 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.58 FIP):

Washburn is most likely the best pitcher left on the market. But, buyer-beware, he’s going to need a top-notch outfield defense in front of him. In 2009, Washburn pitched 133 innings in front of Seattle’s monster defense and looked great posting a 2.64 ERA in the process. Traded to Detroit at the deadline, Washburn struggled and posted a 7.33 ERA as his new outfielders were less adept at turning flyballs into outs.  As a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike out many hitters, whichever team picks him up should pair him with a good defensive outfield. He’s a strike-thrower (career BB/9 of 2.75) that throws a lot of fastballs. Another data point of interest from Washburn’s ’09 season is the number .244 — that’s his BABIP. We expect most pitchers to pitch around a .300 BABIP. CHONE projects Washburn as a 4.70 FIP pitcher in 2010. I can’t see the Giants bidding on Washburn. He’ll probably earn around $4-5M per season and the Giants seem to be done spending big money.

Old and/or Injured

Erik Bedard (83 IP, 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 3.55 FIP):

There’s no denying that of the remaining free agent pitchers left, Bedard has the best stuff. But, durability and injury issues place him directly in our ‘old and/or injured’ category. When Bedard is healthy, he’s one of the better pitchers in the game. He works off of a low-90′s fastball and a tough curveball that’s given batters nightmares since he came into the league. By FanGraphs’ pitch values, Bedards curveball has been worth 58.5 runs above the average curve over his career. That’s a great pitch. Bedard rattled off back-to-back +5 win seasons between 2006-07 with Baltimore, but over the past two seasons he’s only pitched around 80 innings per year. When he’s healthy, he’s very good, but there’s a good chance he might not be ready to go until sometime in May. Because of his health, he’ll have to sign a 1-year deal. And because of his health I’m not sure he fits in with the Giants. They need someone at the start of the year that can log time in the rotation to give Bumgarner time. Whichever team that picks up Bedard and can wait for him to get back might just have one of the better bargains of this offseason.

John Smoltz (78 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 3.87 FIP):

The 43-year-old John Smoltz could be an option for a team like the Giants that needs a veteran to hold down the fort until Bumgarner is ready. Because of his age, you can’t really expect Smoltz to pitch more than 100 innings. If Smoltz would take on a role like or not is another question, but he does fill some of the criteria for what the Giants need. His AL tenure was short, but overall he was still an above-average starting pitcher. Much like Randy Johnson, if Smoltz goes down with an injury then you can promote Bumgarner, but he should give the Giants a little breathing room. CHONE has Smoltz projected as a 4.01 FIP pitcher next year. I like the idea of Smoltz in the rotation. Do the Giants?

Pedro Martinez (44.2 IP, 7.46 K/9, 1.61 BB/9, 4.28 FIP):

Martinez is a lot like Smoltz. You can’t expect him to throw more than 100 innings, and he’s not the same pitcher he once was, but he’s still got some value. Pedro doesn’t throw in the mid-90′s any more but he’s got enough secondary pitches to keep hitters honest.

Scrap Heap

Braden Looper (194.2 IP, 4.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 5.74 FIP):

Well, one thing you can say about Looper is that he’ll probably give you 200 innings of baseball and he’ll throw strikes. The former reliever had an awful season in ’09. Despite going 14-7, his underlying numbers weren’t pretty. He doesn’t strike out hitters, he’s not really a groundball pitcher, but he is durable. In this market, Looper is going to have to settle for a minor league deal. He might find his way into Giants camp but I’m not sure he’ll make the rotation. I’m also not sure he’s better than internal options. He’s in the scrap heap for a reason.

Livan Hernandez (183.2 IP, 5.0 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 4.44 FIP):

This is the Comedy Option. I’m always amazed that year in and year out Livan manages to find work. Teams that need a warm body in their rotation always seem to pick up Livan. Livan’s numbers from 2009 aren’t all that bad. He posted a solid FIP and was worth +1.7 wins. He actually looks to be the best in our scrap heap, so why shouldn’t we be interested? First, Livan’s fastball has slowed in almost each season. In 2002 he was throwing his fastball around 88 mph, it’s closer to 83 mph these days. Second, his K/9 of 5.0 was his highest strike-out rate since 2006. Between 2007-08 Livan was striking out around 3 hitters per 9 — for a guy that doesn’t get groundballs that’s horrific. Livan’s approach is to nibble around the strike zone and let hitters put the ball in play. He mixes in a slider, a slow curve, and a changeup. He could probably throw 200 innings a year until he’s 60-years-old but the Giants can do better. Is it bad when your fastball is slower than Kirk Rueter’s best heat?

—

If the Giants want to bring in FA to pitch in the 5th spot to give Madison Bumgarner more time in AAA, my first choice would be Smoltz. He offers the best chance for above-average pitching and with his age (and injury history) you can only really expect 100 innings or less — making him the perfect candidate to hold down a rotation spot for a young prospect. Ideally when Bumgarner is ready, you could shift Smoltz into the bullpen and let him work from there. If Smoltz is agreeable to this plan, he would be a fine addition to the Giants. Bedard would be nice, but with his injuries I’m not sure he fits the time table for the Giants.

If the Giants want to with internal options, I like Joe Martinez. He’s shown some GB tendencies in his career and he could fill in for Bumgarner until he’s ready. I think I much prefer him to Kevin Pucetas.

Comment Starter: Is Madison ready?

The Royals, desperate to extract any sort of value from Pena, converted him to the mound and the initial results are encouraging. In a scant 19.1 IP across three levels (most of which were in A-ball) Pena struck out 18 hitters, walked 6, and gave up 14 hits while posting an ERA of 2.33.

Thankfully for us, there is a blip of pitching data on Pena already at the major league level. The Royals let him pitch the 9th inning of 19-4 blowout against the Detroit Tigers in 2008. There’s nothing better than watching position players pitch in baseball during blowouts, but little did Pena know that taking the mound would be a sign of things to come for his career in baseball. The all-seeing eye of PFX captured Pena’s stuff on that night.

Let’s see what he was throwing. First, here’s the typical vertical x horizontal breakplot that’s customary of PFX analysis.

On the night Pena threw 12 pitches (8 went for strikes). From the above plot, you can see what Pena was throwing. 8 of his pitches appear to be fastballs. Pitches in the upper left of the graph indicate heaters — they have little vertical movement and run horizontally. In fact, a few of Pena’s fastballs were getting some nice horizontal movement. If I had to guess, I would guess that he was throwing a 2-seamer of some sort because of the movement. The other 4 pitches appear to be of the slider/curve variety.

Here’s the velocity by pitch in his only MLB appearance.

If you’re looking to convert a position player into a pitcher you would do well to look at most shortstops. On average, I would say that most non-Eckstein shortstops have pretty solid throwing arms. Pena’s fastball worked in the 90-91 mph range and his slider/curve sat around 75 mph. Click here for a video of Pena pitching the KC-DET blowout. From the video you can see that Pena throws in side-arm motion. With a slightly funky delivery, a 90mph 2-seam fastball, and a developing breaking pitch, you can see the makings of a bullpen pitcher. Pena is an interesting pick-up for the Giants and if he can develop/hone a secondary pitch, he might see some time in the majors this season. Of course, we can’t know much about Pena the pitcher from just one outing in ’08, but he’s got some of the tools needed to succeed as a reliever.

And, how cool would it be to see Pena come in from the bullpen to play a few innings at SS in a blowout? In terms of roster construction, having a back-up SS that can also pitch has to have some advantages (even if they are small). Maybe it’s time the Giants did the same thing with Brian Bocock?

Toss in some reports of decreased velocity, and it’s been and up-and-down year for one of the better pitching prospects in the game. With Madison making his first major league start, we can get a sense of where he’s at, what he throws, and what the next step for him might be.

Let’s move on to some data.

What Does He Throw

Bumgarner has been scouted as primarily a fastball first pitcher with developing offspeed offerings. The book on Bumgarner’s fastball, to this point, has been that it’s a pitch that he can run into the mid-90′s and throw for strikes repeatedly. His slider has room for development, it’s a pitch that he’s still learning how to throw. His low arm angle, almost side-armed, will make it tough to throw quality sliders at times.

Thankfully for PitchF/X, we can go a little deeper into what Bumgarner is throwing right now. Let’s check some numbers from his first major league start.

These are the averages for Bumgarner’s first MLB start. It should be pretty self explanatory. You’ve got the pitch, how many he threw, what’s the percentage thrown for the pitch-type, the average velocity on each pitch, the average horizontal movement, and the average vertical movement.

For example: 69.7% of Bumgarner’s pitches last night were fastballs that, on average, were clocked at 88 mph.

I think the first thing that jumped out at me (and I’m sure other Giants fans) was Madison’s velocity. It looks like the reports of decreased velocity from the minor leagues are true. At times, his fastball has scouted as a mid-90′s pitch. But, in the game last night, his fastball only touched 90 mph twice — 90.1 and 90.4 mph. For most of the evening Bumgarner averaged between 87-89 mph on the heater.

It sounds like Bumgarner realizes that he’s not throwing as hard as he previously was. It’s a question that he candidly touched on in the SFGiants.com post-game wrap:

“It feels the same coming out. It’s just not reading on the radar gun,” said Bumgarner, sounding not the least bit surprised at the question. “I guess [I'm] maybe getting a little tired. I don’t feel it, but I guess that’s what’s happening.”

Whether or not he’ll get his velocity back is anyone’s guess. Is it a mechanical thing? A tired arm?

Keeping with velocity, here is Bumgarner’s velocity plot. The plot is by mph vs. pitch count.

He mostly worked in the upper-80′s with his fastball. Between 77-80 mph you get the slider and in the low 80′s he mixed in a few changeups. Around the 60th pitch of the game, Bumgarner’s velocity on his fastball dropped to around 86-87 mph.

This plot represents the data table above. This is Bumgarner’s break plot — how much each pitch he threw moved. Pitches that are on the negative end of the x-axis move in on right-handed batters. Likewise, pitches on the positive end of the x-axis, move in on left-handed batters. Because of Bumgarner’s handedness, his slider works away from LHB’s and in on RHB’s. His fastball will work itself away from RHB’s. During the game, his fastball seemed to have pretty good action, working away from RHBs with some cut. The slider still needs some work. It looked pretty flat at times, but considering the arm angle, it’s a feel pitch that Bumgarner is going to have to learn.

Location Matters

While Bumgarner’s “stuff” might have not lived up to it’s billing — his location was pretty good. Throughout the night, Bumgarner show a pretty good ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes. Above is a location plot by pitch-type and batter handedness. When pitching to RHB’s, Bumgarner did a pretty good job of keeping the heater in the lower portion of the zone. He wasn’t perfect, you can see a pretty good cluster of fastballs up in the zone in the right-hand corner. For the most part, Bumgarner pitched in and around the zone against the Padres. When his slider missed, it either missed wide or below the zone. If you can’t snap them off perfectly, at least keep them low in the zone or out of the zone altogether.

Also surprising was the groundballs that Bumgarner induced. Bumgarner allowed 10 ground outs to 2 fly outs in the game. In AA this year, Bumgarner posted a GB% of 43, indicating that he’s not much of a groundballer. For his minor league career, he’s induced grounders at a clip of 42.3%. Here’s a plot of the location, by pitch-type, of the grounders that Bumgarner induced against the Padres. I’ll note here that only 9 of the 10 are represented. For some reason, PFX has some missing data on the 10th grounder. Grounders are labled by the bold colored dots with black trim.

Out of the 9 tracked grounders, Bumgarner got 6 of them from his fastball, the slider was responsible for the other 3.

Closing Thoughts

You can only take so much from a single start, but despite diminished velocity, I think there’s a lot to like about Bumgarner’s first career game. The heat might have not been there, but he showed a skill for throwing strikes. Even if it was with a lesser fastball. He’s still a big projectable body with a pretty damn good track record. He might have not debuted throwing 95, but I think he showed Giants fans something last night.

Still, on the other side of things, if MadBum is truly a 87-90 mph pitcher, you can probably scale back some of his projections. Without a premium fastball (at this stage in his development) he probably moves back from a front of the rotation starter to a mid-rotation starter. I think we also saw a pitcher that’s still learning how to throw non-fastball pitches. The slider looked decent-ish at times, but it’s still definitely a work-in-progress. He barely threw his changeup, and quite frankly, I have no idea how far along he is with a changeup or any other 3rd pitch. I think it’s pretty clear that as of now, his current repertoire needs polish.

Basically, it’s how I imagined a 20-year-old pitcher would look in his first start. It might not have been a 10 K game with 95 mph heat, but it was a pretty good ‘getting-your-feet-wet’ game for Bumgarner. I imagine that the Giants will start him in AAA next season. If he can regain velocity and/or work on his breaking pitches, he should be next in line for a rotation spot.

After being demoted the bullpen, it was a game that Sanchez wasn’t even scheduled to pitch in. But a Randy Johnson injury gave Sanchez the opportunity to crack the starting rotation once more and it’s an opportunity that he took full advantage of. That’s one of the reasons baseball is so enjoyable for me — one minute you’re the goat, an under-performing left-hander with good stuff and the next minute you’re the hero. Sanchez hurled 9 innings of no-hit baseball that was punctuated by a career high 11 strikeouts.

Let’s dive into a few PFX numbers.

Note: The following pitch-types are pulled directly from MLBAM’s pitch classifications which aren’t always right. They largely look OK for this start. Sanchez doesn’t throw a 2-seamer to my knowledge and a few of the curveballs could have been sliders but, overall, it’s a decent bit of information.

From the velocity plot and the data table you can get a feel of what Sanchez was throwing in the game. To get an idea of just how good Sanchez’s fastball can be, look at the velocity plot. Until his 40th pitch on the night (or around the 4th inning) it’s all he threw. Just think about that for a second. Sanchez’s fastball is so good that he can cruise through the batting order once or twice before needing to mix in other pitches. By the 40th pitch on the night Sanchez started to mix in his slider which proved to be his best pitch on the night. Sanchez also threw a few curveballs and changeups, but for the most part he was a two-pitch pitcher with the fastball and slider. Another note about the fastball is that out-of-the-gate, he was touching 95 mph. Lefties that can throw with that type of velocity don’t grow on trees. By around the 40th pitch of the game his fastball settled into the 90-92 mph range.

For a pitcher with control problems (his BB/9 is still over 5 for this year) what’s one of the reasons that Sanchez had so much success?

Answer: He pounded the strike zone all night long.

This is a plot of all the pitches that Sanchez threw during the game. His arm-slot will still give him problems sometimes — causing him to miss up in the zone — but he was in the zone all night. Sometimes his arm-slot would give him a little trouble and he’d miss up, but by the next pitch he’d correct himself and get back into the strike zone. It’s a pretty remarkable graph for Sanchez. With his swing-and-miss stuff, if he can stay in the strike zone more he could be a very good pitcher. But, of course, you could say that about every pitcher with good stuff and control problems.

Let’s check out Sanchez’s movement by speed during the no-no.

This plot is sort of a combination of the data table and velocity graph. The red dashed circle indicates Sanchez’s fastballs, which because of his left-handedness, will move away from right-handed batters. Most of his fastballs were between 90-95 mph with a few reaching 95+ mph. Below that is the orange dashed circle which indicates the few changeups that Sanchez threw. And in the bottom left-hand section of the graph is the blue dashed circle or the sliders and curves that Sanchez threw. Again, because of his handedness these pitches will break away from left-handed batters and in on right-handers. The majority of Sanchez’s breaking stuff ranged between 80-85 mph with a few that dipped under 80 mph.

The slider was quite good for Sanchez. Actually, better than quite good — it was devastating. More often than not he kept the pitch down in the zone and the Padres just couldn’t hit it. 10 out of the 11 strikeouts that Sanchez collected were via the slider. Watching Sanchez, I can’t remember a time before when he slider was so “on”.

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Wrapping up, it’s not too hard to see why Sanchez had such a great night. His fastball is good enough that he can get through a lineup a couple of times on nothing but the heater. But, if he’s controlling the slider like he was there’s not much else he needs to succeed as a starting pitcher in the majors. His changeup has always been scouted as a plus-pitch and if he can still work towards making that pitch a weapon for him, he’s going to be good. Of course, his control is always going to drive you mad some nights but no other pitcher in the Giants system near the major league level has the level of “stuff” that Sanchez has.

Hopefully the no-hitter is a big step in the right direction for Sanchez, but even it wasn’t, it was a hell of a game to pitch and one we’ll all be remembering for some time to come. I think the kid earned himself a few more starts.