I decided to use bUZR from the years 2002-2008 to find the best and worst defender on each Giants team in each year. My criteria was fielders who played at least 600 innings in the field. It’s a small-ish sample size for one season, but not many players field over 1,000 innings in a season unless they are playing 150 games or more. I’m also using bUZR/150 or bUZR scores prorated to 150 games in a season. This will give you an idea of how good or bad a player would have fielded his position if given the chance to play 150 games.

First, let’s check out the best defenders.

Most shocking inclusion on this list has to be Deivi Cruz who played a +8.3 shortstop for the Giants in 2004. Cruz was really a nice little pick-up that season. He got 400+ AB’s with the Giants that year and hit: .292/.322/.421 while playing above average defense at shortstop. I remember his arm being pretty weak but bUZR thinks he did a better than average job. Randy Winn and Pedro Feliz both make the list twice, they’ve been some of the better defenders for the Giants in recent memory. Feliz was arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game for a couple of seasons and Randy Winn has been one of the best — if not the best — defenders in right.

In 2003 Bonds could still play LF quite well. He saved +15.3 runs over the average National League left fielder. It seems that 2003 was his last year as an outstanding defensive left fielder. In 2004 he dropped to a bUZR/150 of +4, he was hurt in 2005 and when he came back in 2006, he was a -1.9 defender in left. In 2007 he was a -8 defender. For all the flak that Bonds got for being “an immobile object” in left field by sportswriters, most of it wasn’t deserved. Even on one good leg Bonds was a much better defender at his position than present day lumps Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn. Reggie Sanders was “a good Giant”. He hit well in 2002 and played very good defense in right field, but much like through his career, Sanders was gone after the season ended. From 1999-2003 Sanders played with 5 different teams. For a pretty good player, he moved around a lot.

You might have expected Omar Vizquel to show up on this list. He just barely missed the cut in 2007 when he scored a bUZR/150 of +20.2. In his four seasons with the Giants, Omar always could field. He had bUZR/150′s of: +10, +7.4, +20.2, and +13.8.

Now, let’s check out the worst defenders:

Most shocking member of team iron glove? I would say that Snow making the list might upset a few people. JT was always a fan favorite for his gold glove defense at first base. But, for whatever reason, he didn’t do well in bUZR for his 2002 season. It could have been something in the system that didn’t like Snow, because a bUZR/150 of -18.2 runs seems shockingly out of whack for his defensive reputation. He fielded over 1,000 innings at first in 2002 but bUZR says that Snow had terrible range. His scores from 2003-2005 seem more accurate. He had scores of: +8.9, +6.9, and +3.1.

Edgardo Alfonzo was a disappointment on both the offensive and defensive ends of his contract. After posting strong offensive seasons in New York, he lost a huge chunk of his power once coming to San Francisco. From 1998-2002 he never posted an ISO under .149, but with the Giants, his ISO’s fell to .132, .118, and finally .068. The final ISO looks like something Omar Vizquel could do. It also looks like he had trouble playing defense. His 2003 score of -3 runs isn’t terrible, it’s very close to being average, but in 2005 someone should have taken his glove away. Does anyone remember him being that bad? I’ve blocked out most of my memories of Fonzy.

I can’t say that I’m surprised to see Grissom pop up for his 2004 season in center field. I can’t tell you how many blooped singles I watched fall in front of Grissom while he was roaming CF for the Giants. He would always run in full steam but watch helplessly as the ball landed 4-5ft in front of him. Every-single-time. He was a pleasant surprise with the bat but he probably didn’t belong in center field at this stage of his career. The Giants picked up him up when he was 36-years-old. In 2001 and 2002 teams started to transition Grissom to LF but the Giants picked him up and played him in CF for 148 games in 2003. In 2004, at 37-years-old, he played 142 games in center. His 2003 bUZR/150 is actually respectable for a player on the last legs of his carer at a defensive position. In that year, Grissom was about average defensively with a score of -2.9 runs. It appears that there’s a fine line between being a useful defensive player and turning into a statue. Marquis crossed that line between 2003 and 2004.

Trying to play Dave Roberts in center was an ugly experiment in 2007. He really had no business playing that position. Rowand’s rating will scare the hell out of pessimists and other people concerned with how he’ll age. If he continues to post double-digit negative run scores in CF, the Giants will have a headache on their hands. He looked slow at times in 2008 and the less we talk about his throwing arm, the better.

Comment Starter: Your favorite all-time Giants defender? Your most hated all-time defender?

The unbelievable has happened, Pedro Feliz will not be a Giant in 2008. The Phillies, who actually had an enormous hole at third base, lured away Pedro Feliz for a 2 year $8.5M contract that can run up to 3-years and $15M depending on incentives. I feel like I’ve written an enormous amount about Feliz on this site over the years but he’s always been a hot-button-topic with Giants fans.

As terrible as Feliz is, he’s going to most likely be an upgrade for the Phillies. Any team that has to run out a 3B amalgamation of Wes Helms, Greg Dobbs, and Abraham Nunez to play the position is in trouble and there’s not many places to go but up. Feliz will probably smack some homers and play some great defense for the Phillies but with his age, history, and the state of the Giants, there’s no real reason for him to be on a Giants team in transition.

And now, for a stupid quote from the Phillies.com article on the signing. The added emphasis is mine.

“We got better,” Manuel said. “He’s a good defensive player. He’s got power. He’ll hit probably sixth, seventh, somewhere in there. He’ll continue to hit 20 homers. I think putting him down in our lineup will help him. He was called on to hit in the middle of the lineup in San Francisco. A couple years ago, he might’ve been pressing to do too much because they had Barry Bonds there.“

What does that even mean? Does Barry Bonds have some voodoo-like powers that compelled Pedro Feliz to swing at sliders in the dirt for 7-years straight? Damn you Barry Bonds.

The Giants will probably either sign a FA with injury or performance questions — Ensberg or McPherson — or get stupid and trade for Joe Crede. Please, Giants, don’t trade away Feliz and then replace him with another Feliz.

Words from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Pedro Feliz apparently is gone, with Sabean saying, “We made a two-year offer, which he rejected. We’ve pretty much moved on from there.” There are other third baseman coming off injuries who might be available via trade – most notably Joe Crede and the already-dealt Scott Rolen – and Sabean acknowledged he is monitoring players in that category.

After offering Feliz a 2-year deal you can’t really say that the Giants totally backed away from Feliz, but it’s good news that Sabean is showing a modicum of restraint and not giving into the 3-year demands that Feliz apparently wants. Feliz is what he is, great with the leather, not-so-great with the bat. Toss in the fact that Feliz will be 33 next year and he’s a pretty big risk, even at two years. I think that a team with really weak 3B production last year might still take a shot at Feliz, maybe someone like the Phillies, but I’d really be surprised if he gets the 3-years he’s looking for.

The good news for the G’s is that they offered Feliz arbitration, he’s a type-B player, and will get a supplemental draft pick from whichever team he signs with — if he doesn’t end up playing in Japan or something. Despite what Schulman is saying, I don’t think the Blue Jays will be trading Scott Rolen, nor would I really want him. The same goes for Crede, even though the White Sox are definitely making him available, I do no want him. Actually trading talent for Crede is mind-boggling considering that Feliz and Crede are basically the same player. Crede’s agent is Scott Boras, too, who loves to test the market. Crede would be nothing but a potential 1-year rental with a lot of health concerns. I really, really, hope that Sabean doesn’t trade for him.

I’ve been riding shotgun on the Morgan Ensberg bandwagon for 2-years now and I won’t get off just yet. He’d come cheap and without the cost of prospects. He might even put up league average numbers for the Giants. An article in the San Jose Mercury News today briefly mentions that the Giants might be checking out Ensberg.

Club officials are exploring other possibilities for the corners, including free agent Morgan Ensberg. Giants scouts also plan to monitor Chicago White Sox third baseman Joe Crede this spring to see if his back is healthy. If so, club sources said there is a good chance the Giants could acquire him for a pitcher.

If the Giants trade for Crede, I’ve got the feeling that they will move Lowry in a Crede deal. I’m not big on Lowry by any stretch but to trade him for a 1-year of Joe Crede — who’s essentially the exact same player that Feliz is — seems like a spinning-the-wheels-in-sand type of move.

—

While my Ensberg dreams still run strong, you can cross Chris Shelton off the list as a possible first base candidate for the Giants. He cleared waivers today for Texas and was sent to their AAA affiliate. Shelton would most likely out-hit Ben Broussard but it looks like initially the Rangers will carry him as a bench bat, if he even makes the team.

Finally, ex-Giant David Aardsma was DFA’d by the Chicago White Sox. Aardsma, who is #1 all-time alphabetically in baseball, pitched great for the White Sox in ’07 … in April. He started the year looking un-hittable, posting an ERA of 1.72 in 15.2 innings with 23 strike-outs. In May, June, and July Aardsma never had an ERA under 9.00 and was optioned to AAA where he stayed for the rest of the year. According to his Wikipedia page, he’s also good friends with Kirsten Dunst? He’d be a interesting reclamation project because of his arm but I think he’ll get picked before the Giants get a shot at him.

Blurb #1 from Schulman:

Contract talks between the Giants and incumbent third baseman Pedro Feliz appear to be stalling. Sources said the team offered Feliz a contract of less than the three years he is believed to be seeking, and no deal was struck despite a deadline imposed by the team.

As much as it pains me to see Feliz in a Giants uniform for another year, it’s not really a surprise to hear that Sabean has at least offered Feliz something. From the early stages of arbitration after Feliz turned down the Giants arb offer, Sabean has been on record as saying that he’s still interested in Feliz but not at the 3-year price that he’s reportedly looking for. 3B is still one of the larger holes on the Giants and outside of Rich Aurilia and Kevin Frandsen, there isn’t really anyone on the current roster or close enough in the minors — Justin Leone aside, who I don’t think the Giants value too much — to play third. I expect Aurilia to further decline because of age and injuries and Frandsen fits better at 2B than he does at third.

Like I said, another year of Feliz isn’t something I’d look forward too, but if the Giants offer him anything, I hope it’s a 1-year deal which seems unlikely to me since he turned down the arbitration offer. 2-years is just too long for Feliz, even with his awesome defense.

Blurb #2

A passing deadline does not necessarily mean Feliz is gone, but does mean that with five weeks before spring training, the Giants might have to intensify trade talks for Scott Rolen, Joe Crede or any other third baseman who might be available.

Schulman is speculating here but it might be a pretty good guess at what the Giants might try to do if they can’t find a 3B that they like. First let me say that Joe Crede is an awfully overrated 3B who is still living off his breakout 2006 campaign in which he finally put it all together to hit (.283/.323/.506) which is an OPS+ of 107. He’s tended to hit 20 or so homers per year in his career while hitting around .260 and barely scrapping past a .300 OBP. He also plays above-average defense. Sound like anyone you know? In fact, his career line of (.259/.305/.446) is amazingly similar to what our boy Pedro has done (.252/.288/.433). Just say no to Joe Crede.

At least Feliz has been durable, he’s appeared in 144, 156, 160, 150 games over the last 4 seasons. Crede by comparison has appeared in 144, 132, 150, and 47 games over the last 4 years. In 2007 he missed most of the year because of lower back surgery. Crede has been dinged up over the last 3-4 years and it really didn’t catch up to him until ’07 but he definitely still has durability issues heading into 2008 with his back problems. I’d much rather hang onto prospects and resign Feliz to a 1-year deal (maybe wishful thinking, I’d would only go as far as 1-year with Petey) than send prospects to Chicago for Crede, who isn’t much better than Feliz and has injury concerns.

Schulman also mentions Scott Rolen who’s been one of the most consistent hitters from the mid-90′s to the mid-00′s but who has had some up-and-down seasons over the last few years because of injuries. From 1997-2004 Rolen’s OPS+ never dipped below 119 and peaked at 157 in ’04. He then battled injuries in 2005 which resulted in him posting a OPS+ of 84 in just 56 games. In 2006 Rolen got healthy again, appearing in 142 games and was hitting like his old self, good for a OPS+ of 126. He battled injuries again in 2007, his age 32 season, and had season ending surgery in September to remove scar tissue from his shoulder. He posted an OPS+ of 89 in ’07.

The concerns about Rolen are with his age and injuries. 2006 showed that if he’s healthy, he can still hit but the question remains that after 2007 when’s the next time Scott Rolen is going to be healthy? The shoulder problems have negatively affected his power, his ISO fell to .148 and .133 in his injury years of ’05 and ’07. For his career, Rolen has posted an ISO of .223. Player projection system, ZiPS, is doubtful about Rolen rebounding much in ’08. The system has him down for a projected line of (.255/.331/.397) which isn’t totally uncalled for, Rolen’s age combined with his injuries (he’s always played dinged up but had serious problems in ’05 and ’07) cast a good bit of doubt on whether he can still be a productive hitter. For comparison the Bill James projections have Rolen at (.282/.367/.475) which I think could be a tad optimistic. I’m not a big fan of the James projections, many of them seem really optimistic to me.

Rolen is still under contract for three more years, earning $12M in each year. It’s possible that St. Louis could chip in a few million in the deal but I don’t think they’ll want to chip in a whole lot to move Rolen. The Cardinals need rotation help — with Carpenter coming off injury and Braden Looper in the rotation, you know they need help — and MI help, so the Giants would probably send something like Lowry + Frandsen to St. Louis in a Rolen deal, which might be too steep of a price for a maybe-injured former All-Star third baseman. Though, if Rolen is somehow magically healthy over the final three years of the contract, the Giants could vastly upgrade at third base. Essentially, they’d be trading Lowry (a guy with injury concerns) for Rolen (another guy with injury concerns) and hope that Rolen holds up. I’ll leave that to the Giants medical staff to evaluate, but I can’t see Rolen being healthy over the next three years. His power drop is concerning.

In all the talk of potential trades, I think the Giants could find their best third base option with a player they wouldn’t even have to trade for.

Enter, Morgan Ensberg.

Signing Ensberg is attractive for a couple of reasons. 1) You don’t have to lose prospects in an already weak-ish farm system. The Giants should look to hang onto most of their prospects if they can and definitely not trade them for injury cases like Crede and Rolen. 2) The financial risk is very small. Ensberg could probably sign for a 1-year deal — maybe even include an option if he wants security — in an effort to rebuild his value. He was great in 2005 and if he could even come close to approaching that production again for the Giants he could find some lucrative offers next offseason from other teams.

Ensberg is from California, so playing in his home state might be appealing to him. Also, with a team like the Giants he knows that he’s going to get playing time which is good for his chances of rebuilding his value. He’ll be 32 next year so chances are that he’s not going to vastly improve but he’s a solid buy-low high-reward choice. Ensberg has always gotten onbase, even when he wasn’t hitting for average. He was traded to San Diego last year and managed to post a 109 OPS+, albeit in a very small sample size of 58 AB’s. His combined OPS+ of 2007 was 88, 4 points higher than Feliz’s career OPS+. He’s also a solid defender. ZiPS posted an optimistic projection for him as well, with a line of (.243/.370/.446). That projection might improve a little with a move to Mays Field, as it assumes that Ensberg will play half his games in San Diego. That’s surely worth a 1-2 year deal to find out what he has left.

I think if you asked the average baseball fan, and even the average Giants fan, what they thought about the defense in 2007, they’d most likely say something negative. After all, you had a creeky-knee’d Bonds bumbling around LF, a 40 year old shortstop still defying age, an overweight catcher who tied the league lead for passed balls, and Ray Durham who’s days of being an adequate defender at second are long gone. Here’s the thing…

The team defense was actually pretty good in 2007.

Judging the team by THT’s Team stats page and using their plus/minus system for defense, the results are shockingly positive. As a team, the Giants’ fielders rated as a +27 for team defense. The much publicized Rockies’ defense tied for the lead in the National League with a +58 along with the Braves. The Padres also had a strong defense at +55. The teams that did the worst were the Marlins -102, the Pirates -64, and the Brewers -48. The average NL team was a +5 and sported a Revised Zone Rating of .818, the Giants once again were at a +27 and had a RZR of .829, 10 points above the average NL team.

How could this be? The Giants got great defense out of 3B (Feliz), SS (Omar), and RF (Winn). By the Fielding Bible, one of my favorite defensive metrics, Pedro Feliz was the best defender in baseball at the hot corner with a score of +27. Omar was a +20 by the FB and Randy Winn was a +13 by the FB. The Giants got good defense out of 1B, Klesko with a +8 from the FB. The team got bad defense from 2B, C, LF and awful defense from CF. Durham was -10 by the Bible and while I haven’t seen Bonds’ stats from the bible, I’m betting that they aren’t great. I think his defense has been overstated the past few years, he’s not great but he has tended to hover around replacement level. For what it’s worth, UZR hated Bonds this year and gave him a -22, somewhere between Pat Burrel and Carlos Lee defensively. Molina was a poor defender and Dave Roberts was the third worst CF in the majors with a score of -19 according to the Fielding Bible. UZR had Roberts at -26, at this point in his career, he’s a left fielder.

Some of this stuff is repeated from the Rowand post but let’s go through it and some other stuff.

Why the Defense Could Improve

- First and foremost is getting Dave Roberts out of center field. At this point in his career he has no business in center and especially not in the large outfields of the NL West. Aaron Rowand’s defense should help the Giants save some runs. A lot of people are split on Rowand’s defense, opinions range from good to overated. This past Friday, Dan Fox of BP, held a chat centered mostly on defensive questions. I submitted the following question to Dan and got an answer:

Chris (Harrisonburg, VA): I seem to hear a lot of chatter on the defensive abilities of newly acquired center fielder for the San Francisco Giants, Aaron Rowand. I’ve heard everything from he’s overrated to he’s pretty good, what gives?

Dan Fox: I was thinking about that one myself. I have him at -6.8 but I know UZR has him as the best CF in the NL at +14. This could be a case of those “out of zone” type plays making a big difference. I’m hopeful that in making some adjustments we’ll figure out whether this is the case or not.

UZR loved Rowand but Fox’s system still has some questions about him. The Giants don’t necessarily need Rowand to be the “best CF in the NL” but if he can play slightly above average, it’s going to help out. I’ll be anxious to watch Rowand in CF with my own two eyes.

- Moving Roberts into LF and replacing Bonds’ defense is going to help as well. In 2006 Roberts was rated as the best LF in all of baseball by the Fielding Bible with a +16. LF will hide Roberts poor arm and help use some of his speed which just isn’t quite enough for center field now. I’m not sure what the Fielding Bible has Bonds rated at, but if you gave him a conservative estimate of -15, it’s possible to see a +25 point turn around by defense alone in left in ’08.

- Durham is traded and Kevin Frandsen is given the starting job at second base. Alright, this one is a little bit of a fantasy scenario right now as Durham is still on the team, but if he’s moved the Giants will see their right side of the infield improve from a defensive standpoint. Durham was -10 in ’07 by the Fielding Bible and if Frandsen can play around 0 or above, it’ll help. Frandsen struggled throughout ’07 but so did Durham, it’s possible that he could both out-hit and out-field Durham in ’08. I expect Ray to bounce back with the bat some but it’s hard to tell at this point.

Why the Defense Might Get Worse

- Losing Feliz will hurt the left side of the infield. He’s simply the best defensive third baseman in baseball right now. If they replace him with someone like Ensberg, who’s been a above average fielding third baseman in his career, the dropoff might not be enormous.

- This might seem unfair, but can Omar keep it up? He’ll be a 41 year old shortstop in 2008. 41-year-old shortstops are rare enough — Limited to guys like Smith, Wagner, and Apling — but 41-year-old defensive masters at shortstop are even rarer. I can’t think of anyone outside of Ozzie Smith who was defensively great at the number 6 position at age 41. We all saw how fast Omar’s bat left him and if his glove starts to leave him the same way, look out. The potential for the left side of the infield to run into some problems is there.

I think the outfield defense is looking pretty good so far in 2008, whether or not they’ll be able to contribute offensively is a whole ‘nother post, but on paper they look good. The team essentially has three CF’s (well, maybe not Roberts these days) playing the three outfield positions. A outfield of Roberts-Rowand-Winn looks like it should be able to get to a lot of flyballs hit by the opposition.

The infield is another question. To me the infield defense hinges on a few questions. Will the Giants trade or bench Durham? Will Omar still be able to field like a 26-year-old? And, how the team replaces Feliz’s glove. I’m not optimistic for Bengie’s “gold glove defense” to come back, his age and weight tell me that he’s only going to get worse. First base isn’t a concern either because it’s the least demanding of the defensive positions, I’d rather the team focus on someone who can hit at that position, but thats just me.

The Giants announced late Saturday night that they offered salary arbitration to third baseman Pedro Feliz, although this hardly assured that the free agent would return to the club in 2008.

Not too surprising. I always thought that the Giants might offer Feliz arbitration because I think he’s got a good shot of getting a multi-year deal on the market. A team like Philadelphia or even the Twins (maybe not so much the Twins now that they’ve started selling) could sign Feliz for 2-3 years because even though we all know he’s a bad player, the Philly combo of Abraham Nunez and Wes Helms was horrific (Nunez had an OPS+ of 54 and Helms had a OPS+ of 68) and the Twins didn’t do much better with Nick “Worst MLB Regular” Punto manning the hot corner for them in ’07 (OPS+ of 52). Feliz is no superstar but he’s better than both of those examples.

Also, if Feliz is signed by another team, the Giants will get compensation because he’s a Type-B free agent. That compensation will come in the form of a sandwich pick.

A lot of fans will probably moan and groan about offering Feliz arbitration but it’s not the worst thing that could happen. He could very well accept it and the Giants would have to pay him something in the neighborhood of $5-7M but depending on what Feliz wants, I still think he can get a multi-year deal on the free market. There’s got to be a few teams at least that love his gold glove defense and over-value his 20HR power and RBI numbers. What the Giants did was protect themselves. Worst case – Feliz takes arbitration and you have to pay him. Best case – another team signs him, you get the draft pick, and you can continue looking for a replacement. Feliz’s value will probably never be higher so if he wants to make more money on the market, now is the time to do so. Having to watch Feliz for another year isn’t something I’d call fun but it’s a decent fallback option so the Giants don’t have to trade the farm for a third baseman.

From the same article, on who wasn’t offered arbitration:

The Giants did not offer salary arbitration to their other free agents — left fielder Barry Bonds, first baseman-outfielder Ryan Klesko, right-hander Russ Ortiz and catcher Mike Matheny.

No surprises here. No reason to bring back Klesko or Ortiz (who’ll miss the year with arm surgery) and Matheny was still on the active roster for some weird reason. Bonds was also a no-brainer, his chances of playing now are minuscule and if offered arbitration, at this point, he would surely accept it.

—

Another interesting bit-o-news regarding a possible non-tender in Xavier Nady:

The Pirates are prepared to trade outfielder Xavier Nady.

And, if they cannot do so within the next few days, according to one official with direct knowledge of their plans, they are considering non-tendering him before the Dec. 12 deadline to offer salary arbitration. That would allow him to become a free agent.

The Pirates organization is in transition right now and Nady is definitely available but if they can’t find the right match, they’d rather non-tender him than pay him in arbitration. The potential Nady non-tender is good news for the Giants, because he’s a Type B free agent the Giants wouldn’t lose a pick to sign him if he’s non-tendered, but also for the fact that the Giants wouldn’t necessarily have to trade a prospect to get him. If non-tendered, he enters the market as a free agent.

In 2007 Nady hit (.278/.330/.476) and he can play a corner OF spot or 1B. I would be interested in him at first base if non-tendered. He could be a platoon option (he’s hit well against LHP for his career) or a a starting option if the Giants can’t pair him with someone like a Geoff Jenkins. He could even be an insurance option if the club is still crazy enough to let Dan Ortmeier play first base. He’s a decent hitter at AT&T, too. In 53 career AB’s he’s hit (.302/.351/.434) which is an OPS of .785, that’s unheard of for a Giants first baseman. If I were to sign him, I’d hope to either get him on a 1 year deal or maybe even a 2-year deal similar to what Rich Aurilia got last offseason. A $2/8-10M deal for a career league average hitter isn’t too shabby this day and age.

“Third base is what we’re presently going to work on,” Sabean said. “I think that definitely has to be the first thing we try to address.”

Sabean said that Feliz, who has averaged 21 home runs and 84 RBIs in the past four seasons, and is widely considered to have developed into a Gold Glove-caliber defender, has received “quite a bit of action” from teams seeking a third baseman. Sabean indicated that the Giants are reluctant to fulfill Feliz’s hopes for a multiyear contract — a request that could extend “closer to three years,” the GM noted.

“If that’s the case,” Sabean said, “it’s not going to be something that we’ll pursue, at least at this time.”

My initial reaction to this is one of joy and happiness. The fact that Omar Vizquel is getting (potentially) a multi-year deal from the Giants is enough, but to imagine the Giants signing the 32-year-old Feliz to a 2-3 year deal is enough to make the strongest fan question his personal religious beliefs. It’s a classic question that’s irked mankind for sometime now, if God truly exists, how can he let such terrible things happen to good people? Floods, Famine, Pedro Feliz. You’ll find weird pockets of Giants fans who absolutely love Feliz and his annual 20 HR power with excellent defense but in my estimation, Feliz just isn’t very good. He’s Tony Batista with a better glove and no one has ever clamored for Tony Batista.

Options to replace Feliz aren’t very exciting but even with the weak options, I think the Giants should end their relationship with Feliz, unless it was on another 1-year deal. Rotoworld speculated that if the Giants don’t sign Feliz, they could turn to such options of Mike Lamb or Mark Loretta. Either player wouldn’t realy be an upgrade when compared to Feliz. Both Lamb and Loretta are poor defenders and their hitting isn’t good enough to make up for the difference. Both have been worth about 1-3 wins over the past three years, while Feliz has been about a 3 win player on the strength of his defense.

Between the two, Lamb would probably be the best option but I wouldn’t want to spend more than a year on him and he’ll probably get a few multi-year offers. His defense at third base isn’t nearly as strong as Feliz’s but it’s near replacement-level. I was hoping the Giants might consider Fresno AAA’er Justin Leone this past year to work at third base but he never made it out of the minors. Leone showed both good pop and patience in the minors, hitting 20 HR’s, 30 2B’s, and posting an OBP of .383. He also stole 26 bags to only 1 caught-stealing. Sadly, the Giants most likely have a poor view of Leone – who throughout his minor league career has been a decent player, career line of (.260/.363/.480) – because he was never once called up to the big team. He’s now a minor league free agent and it’s very possible that he’ll join on with another team to get a crack at major league playing time.

The Giants could enter the trade market to try and find a third baseman. Sabean has recently calmed some fears and stated that Lincecum isn’t actively being shopped but they’ve had a lot of requests for him from opposing teams. They’ve listened but that doesn’t mean they’re going to trade him. If the team is looking for established star third basemen, then they will be very interested in Miguel Cabrera. In interacting with a lot of Giants fans, I’ve found that the average Giants fan seems to be wary of Cabrera because of his “weight and personality issues” which to me, seem grossly overblown.

What Cabrera has done in his first 5 seasons before the age of 24 is historic.

Cnt Player           **HR**
+----+-----------------+---
1 Eddie Mathews       190
2 Frank Robinson      165
3 Albert Pujols       160
4 Orlando Cepeda      157
5 Hank Aaron          140
6 Miguel Cabrera      138
7 Bob Horner          138
8 Joe DiMaggio        137
9 Vladimir Guerrero   136
10 Hal Trosky         136

How many people can say that they’ve hit more HR’s before the age of 24 than DiMaggio did? The Giants might not have the prospects to trade for Cabrera (I think they should hold onto Cain and Lincecum but everyone else could be expendable) but he’s one of the few players in the MLB that comes close to being able to replace the production of Bonds. He’s not that good yet, about 3-4 wins from replacing Bonds in his prime, but he’s a fantastic talent who’s weight issues in my opinion, have been way overblown.

I liked the way Bill James described Cabrera in a recent article he penned for SI.com:

He’s fat and he looks lazy, but he hits .320 and drives in 115 runs every year. As a hitter, he’s in a class with Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez and Albert Belle, just crushes the ball about 200 times a year. As a third baseman he’s in a class with guys who really need to work on playing third base.

Cabrera isn’t a strong fielding third baseman, but he was almost in the middle of the pack last year. He was 8th out of 12 qualifying NL 3B’s in 2007 when ranking by revised zone rating. The Fielding Bible liked him even less, only Garret Atkins and Ryan Bruan were worse at defending third base last year. He’s eventually destined for LF or 1B but the Giants could probably squeeze a couple of years out of him from third base if they needed to. Thankfully, they’ve got major openings at both positions, so if they didn’t feel comfortable with Cabrera at third, they could push him to first instantly. If Angel Villalona could stick at third base (that’s still up for debate but at least the Giants aren’t moving him off the position just yet) a infield that contained both would look awfully nice.

The biggest hurdle to getting Cabrera might be his contract. He’ll be a free agent in 2010 and any team that trades for him would prefer that he’d sign a contract extension with them. If the Giants could bowl Cabrera over with a contract extension and not give up the big two (Cain and Lincecum) in the process, I would love to see Cabrera in San Francisco. It all fits together like a best case scenario but it’s my best case scenario, dang it!

Comment Starter: What’s your best case scenario for the Giants this off-season? Try to keep it a little realistic.

—

Update

Not being able to sleep can have it’s advantages. I just noticed an SI.com article by Jon Heyman on the subject of Miguel Cabrera and the Marlins’ asking price:

The price is so prohibitive and includes multiple top-tier prospects — the kind of young players that are hardly ever traded anymore — that executives believe the Marlins will have to drop their price significantly to deal Cabrera. Because the requests have been jaw-dropping, teams say they don’t see anything happening until the winter meetings next month.

For Cabrera, 24, the Marlins are requesting a package of four top young players,

The Marlins are officially asking for a “buttload” of talent. Yes thats a word. That’s a huge amount of talent to give up, even for Miguel Cabrera. 4 top-tiered prospects? That’s madness. That would be like sending Cain, Lincecum, Henry Sosa, and whoever else the Giants could lump in as a top-tiered prospect to Florida. That’s just way too much talent to give up. I guess it does make sense for the Marlins and as a negotiating tactic, it’s a good one. Ask for the world because someone might give it to you, but if they don’t you can always adjust the conversations. Better to start too high than too low.