Bay City Ball

I was going to write a post today about how Jose Castillo is awful or that our infield defense is still pretty bad or that Ray Durham has the range of a beached whale but I said screw it. We all know that the 2008 Giants season, or the year that speed and defense ran wild, is going to have more negatives than positives at the major league level. Watching a team with defensive issues that can’t score runs isn’t anyones first choice for exciting baseball.

Headlines have alternated between ‘Giants lose another tough one’ and ‘When will Rich Aurilia pass his kidney stone?’. Clearly if any season has ever existed for us to look at other places for encouragement, this is the one

That’s why I’ve been addicted to reading minor league box scores so much this year. I’ve always had a great interest in the farm system — or lack of — but this year I’ve found myself checking minor league box scores before the big club’s box scores. Strange that I’d rather read about anyone with a slight chance of upside than looking at Castillo’s latest o-’fer.

Load up the van, we’re taking a road trip through the Giants minor league system! Use the bathroom, buckle up, and let’s find some signs of encouragement!

Today we’ll make our first stop at the Augusta Greenjackets. The Greenjackets are one of the more exciting minor league teams in the Giants system because of the high number of draft picks in ‘07 and the ever-popular Angel Villalona. The Greenjackets are currently 33-23 and only 6.5 games out of first place in the South Atlantic League.

Here are some players that I’ve been keeping an eye on and so should you.

Augusta Green Jackets (A)

1B Angel Villalona - Mr. Villalona is the top prospect in the Giants organization. The kid from the Dominican Republic won’t turn 18 until August and his bat holds unrivaled potential among minor leaguers. His plate approach could use some work — 12 walks to 47 strikeouts — but when you consider his age, you’ve got a lot to like. His power potential is still enormous and he’s shown flashes of brilliance already this year. The Giants can move Angel along slowly and he could still make it to the majors by his early 20’s.

LHP Madison Bumgarner - Not only is the left-handed Bumgarner one of the youngest pitchers in the South Atlantic League, he’s been one of the best. The 10th overall pick of the 2007 draft has been phenomenal in his first pro-season. He’s striking out 28.2% of hitters faced and only walking 4.3%. That’s good for a K/BB ratio of 6.56, meaning that for every 6.5 K’s, Bumgarner walks 1 hitter. That’s an excellent ratio that puts him 7th in the SAL for K/BB among starters. Other things to like about Bumgarner is that when hitters do make contact, it’s been predominately on the ground — a GB% of 52. Add in reports that he’s been making progress with his breaking pitch — a slurvy breaking ball — and showing some promise with a changeup and you’ve got tons of encouragement. Bumgarner is making a run as a top prospect in the Giants system.

2B Nick Noonan - The ‘07 draft injected a lot of talent into the lower portion of the Giants minor league system. Noonan was picked by the Giants 32nd overall in the 1st round of that draft. The prep shortstop held his own in the AZL in ‘07 with a line of (.316/.357/.451). He started this year in the SAL and has had mixed results. His line of (.273/.298/.411) has shown that Noonan is still a young player — only 19 — with some kinks to work out in his game. He came out of high school as a very polished player. Scouts loved his makeup and hitting approach and he even got some comparisons to Chase Utley, albeit with less power potential. Noonan has moved off shortstop and is now playing 2B full time. He isn’t walking much — just 6 walks in 209 AB’s — but his upside is still very high. He fits the mold of an offensive minded 2B with some speed. Noonan has plenty of time to mature as a player and hopefully we’ll see him make some progress as the season unfolds.

RHP Daniel Otero - My obscure pick for this level. Otero was drafted in ‘07 in the 21st round out of the University of Southern Florida. He racked up 19 saves for the Volcanoes that year in 22.1 innings pitched. Most everything I’ve read about Otero, stuff-wise, indicates that he’s got a fringey fastball and a slider that he uses as a chase pitch. What Otero does have is great control. He’s yet to walk a hitter this year with the Greenjackets in 22.1 innings pitched. In 44.2 career innings pitched he’s only walked 2 hitters. So far as the Greenjackets closer, Otero has collected 14 saves. He’s getting some swing-throughs with a K% at 24.4% and he’s kept the ball on the ground with a GB% of 69%. Because of Otero’s fringey stuff, he’ll have to prove himself every step of the way — similar to Sergio Romo or Adam Cowart — but the early results look great.

That’s it for today’s Farm Review. Tomorrow we’ll be heading across the country to San Jose to check out the San Jose Giants. See you then.

Comment Starter: Got a personal favorite Greenjacket? Let’s hear it.

John Sickels of Minor League Ball has posted his top-20 list for the Giants. You can find the list here.

Here’s how Sickels ranked the top-20 in the Giants’ farm system:

1. Angel Villalona, 3B, Grade B+
2. Henry Sosa, RHP, Grade B
3. Tim Alderson, RHP, Grade B
4. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Grade B- (lack of breaking ball is a caution flag for me)
5. Nate Schierholtz, OF, Grade B-
6. Nick Noonan, 2B, Grade B-
7. Clayton Tanner, LHP, Grade B-
8. Eugenio Velez, UT, Grade B- (I probably like him more than I should but he is fun to watch)
9. Wendell Fairley, OF, Grade C+ (Grade A tools, Grade D refinement, very risky but possible high reward)
10. John Bowker, OF, Grade C+ (sleeper bat)
11. Charlie Culberson, INF, Grade C+
12. Osiris Matos, RHP, Grade C+
13. Wilber Bucardo, RHP, Grade C+
14. Jose Capellan, LHP, Grade C+
15. Sergio Romo, RHP, Grade C+
16. Travis Denker, 2B, Grade C+
17. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, Grade C (I have massive doubts about his bat)
18. Nick Pereira, RHP, Grade C
19. Ben Copeland, OF, Grade C
20. Benjamin Snider, LHP, Grade C

Gripes: I think Sickels under-graded Bumgarner, Fairley, Burris, and Snyder (who apparently he didn’t know how to spell his name properly). This past year I’ve become a little disappointed with Sickels because I’ve felt that he’s lacked consistency in his grades and grading system. Truth be told, he’s less of a scout and more of a guy that combs over stats, like me or you could, to rate players. Not to say that I don’t value his opinion on prospects because he’s been doing it for awhile now but he’s not doing anything that you, me, or any other person with an internet connection couldn’t do.

Back to my gripes.

He downgraded Bumgarner for not having a breaking pitch but he could be going off old reports on Bumgarner because it’s doubtful that he’s ever seen Bumgarner throw in real life. A recent interview with Dave McKamey over at McCovey Chronicles had this to say about Bumgarner.

I really like Bumgarner’s clean delivery, which gives him easy velocity and excellent pitch movement. He has two versions of his curveball that are both used effectively, and is advanced for his age. Alderson may have been one of the more polished (high school) pitchers in the 2007 Draft. His command is impeccable and knows how to attack hitters. Despite his gaudy strikeout numbers in the Arizona League, I don’t think he’s going to be a big strikeout pitcher. His arm action isn’t very fluid and wonder if that will affect his stamina long-term.

According to McKamey, Bumgarner has two breaking balls. I personally have no idea who to believe, Sickels or McKamey, but it’s very possible that Sickels is going off an older report on Bumgarner in regards to his breaking stuff. It’s true that his arm delivery makes it harder to stay on top of a breaking ball, but it’s not impossible.

Burris struggled in A+ ball this year but he improved once he stepped back a level. Clearly he’s at least a “C+” in Sickels grading system. I fully understand that his bat has some questions but you can’t tell me he’s as good as Ben Copeland right now. Burris has some flaws — mostly the lack of power — but hitting for power isn’t going to be in his game. He’s got speed, solid defense, and the ability to hit for a high average because of his speed. Decent enough for a shortstop.

The Snyder ranking might be the one I disagree with the most. Fellow Augusta starter, Clayton Tanner, got a B- ranking but I don’t really think that Snyder and Tanner are that much different. Besides age, they are both lefties that top out around 90mph — Tanner might have 1-2mph on Synder but nothing huge to separate them — and won’t blow away hitters. Here’s a quote that I posted on a few forums that I visit about Tanner and Snyder.

I’m not sure why he rated Tanner so highly and Snyder so low, when they are very similar as pitchers. Both left-handed and don’t have super overpowering stuff. Snyder ran out of gas in the HWB but that was after throwing 150 innings in a year, the highest IP for him yet. Tanner keeps the ball on the ground more (GO/AO of 2.11 versus Snyder’s 1.06) but Snyder K’s more guys than Tanner (K/9 of 8.64 to Tanner’s 6.92) Both also pitched on the superb Augusta Green Jackets staff this year. The sticking point with Sickels has to be that Tanner is 2 years younger but Snynder wasn’t ancient either at 21.

From a stuff and performance angle, they are very similiar in my opinion. I definitely think the straight “C” for Snyder is a bit of a low-ball grade. The Giants probably should have moved him up a level in ‘07 (probably to A+ ball?) but most likely didn’t want to mess with the Augusta staff which ruined many a hitters day in ‘07.

I also think that a “B-” grade for Velez is an over-grade. Velez is a guy that only really has one plus-tool, and that’s his speed. He isn’t a great defender or hitter by any stretch. He’s got some gap power but his speed is still his #1 tool. I would have probably stuck him in the “C+” category.

The Giants farm system is still a work in progress but it’s making steps in the right direction. Hopefully in the 2008 player draft we can pick up a hitter with the #5 pick and continue to reinvest in the farm system. Building up the farm should be a top priority for Sabean because chances are that the Giants are going to need all the help that they can get.