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	<title>Bay City Ball &#187; luis perdomo</title>
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		<title>Bullpen Management, Do We Give Too Much Credit?</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2010/02/27/bullpen-management-do-we-give-too-much-credit/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baycityball.com/2010/02/27/bullpen-management-do-we-give-too-much-credit/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Feb 2010 16:36:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Quick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Plots]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brad lidge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brian wilson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bruce bochy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luis perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[managers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[relievers]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=5504</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When it comes to evaluating prospects or looking at roster make-up, I&#8217;ve always been a little biased against relievers. It&#8217;s not that I think all relievers are replaceable, but in the short-term of baseball history, what teams have paid for and what they&#8217;ve gotten has been grossly out of proportion when it comes to relief [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When it comes to evaluating prospects or looking at roster make-up, I&#8217;ve always been a little biased against relievers. It&#8217;s not that I think all relievers are replaceable, but in the short-term of baseball history, what teams have paid for and what they&#8217;ve gotten has been grossly out of proportion when it comes to relief arms. We&#8217;ve seen the almighty save stat loose some of it&#8217;s luster, but teams generally still spend a good bit on relief arms. Somehow Brandon Lyon got 3 years and $15M from the Astros this offseason. Sure, Ed Wade isn&#8217;t the best GM in baseball but other teams are still (in recent memory) spending big money on relievers. The New York Mets are paying Francisco Rodriguez nearly $11.5M per season to close for their baseball team on a deal he signed over the 2008 offseason. K-Rod has been a dominant reliever in his career, but even the best relievers in baseball (the elite guys who are closing) only rack up 2 wins per season above replacement. And that&#8217;s just a handful of relievers. Unfortunately for the Mets, Rodriguez struggled this past year posting a FIP nearly 1 entire run over his career average this season (4.01 compared to 3.00). His control worsened, but most of his other pitching ratios are near career levels. The Mets are hoping he&#8217;ll bounce-back this season but I digress.</p>
<p>My feelings about relievers stem from the the following:</p>
<p>~ Generally speaking, anyone can relieve. The list of starters-turned-to-relievers is long. You rarely see anyone go in the other direction from reliever to starter. Therefore, the potential population to draw relievers from is enormous.</p>
<p>~ They just don&#8217;t pitch that much. Having a relief ace is great, but he&#8217;s only going to pitch in 60-some innings for your team. There just isn&#8217;t a lot of available PT for a reliever to influence a game. I think you could make the case for shifting back to multiple inning usage, a&#8217;la Goose Gossage, but with specialization in the &#8216;pen, I&#8217;m not sure that&#8217;s going to happen anytime soon.</p>
<p>Because of these two reasons, I have a hard time justifying paying the going rate for relievers, which admittedly has taken a hit lately. You can still find good buys (Jeremy Affeldt being one of them) but in general, paying for relief help through the FA market seems risky. Tom Tango <a href="http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_to_calculate_war/">in his seminal post on calculating WAR</a> ran the numbers behind roster construction and found that by WAR, you should only use around 10% of your entire payroll on relievers. That&#8217;s by far the smallest percentage of any portion of your roster. It&#8217;s even lower if you consider pitcher risk.</p>
<p>Switching gears a little, after trying to think about how to sum up my feelings re: relievers, I then started to think about how teams manage their bullpens. We&#8217;ll often hear the phrase in the press or on the TV that a certain manger &#8220;really manages his bullpen well.&#8221; Managing a bullpen can be a catch-all term but to me it normally means when in-game a manager calls on his relievers. You want to use your best reliever in the best possible spots based on leverage &#8212; or the state of the game. We give relievers credit for working in tight late game situations. Example: Brian Wilson comes in a 1 run game in the 8th innings, 2 outs, and the bases are loaded. That&#8217;s a much higher leveraged situation than Brandon Medders working mop-up in the 4th inning of a blowout. Wilson will get credit for his hard work and Medders will not. Seems fair, right? In theory, managers will use their best relievers in the toughest leveraged situations. It makes no sense to bring in Wilson during the 5th inning when the Giants are up by 6 runs.</p>
<p>Therefore, I wanted to look at every qualified reliever (by FanGraphs) by 2009 and examine their FIP vs the average leverage index they pitched in. The theory remains that the higher the leverage, the better the reliever should be. Nobody wants the worst member of the bullpen pitching the 9th inning in a close game.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.baycityball.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/relieversfipli2.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-5507" title="relieversfipli2" src="http://www.baycityball.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/relieversfipli2.png" alt="" width="441" height="402" /></a></p>
<p>There seems to be on obvious relationship between pitcher quality and use. Managers aren&#8217;t going to throw a 5.00 FIP pitcher into the 9th inning and expect him to wiggle out of tight jams. You can see a few relievers that posted very high FIP scores but still worked very high 2+ leverage situations*. The players who posted poor FIP&#8217;s but were still give high leveraged situations are the Established Closer &#8482; types. Brad Lidge had a down year posting a 5.45 FIP but he still pitched in tough situations. Brian Fuentes was very similar. The graph also shows how good Brian Wilson was last year. He pitched in extremely high leveraged situations while posting a FIP of 2.50. His success by FIP combined with his usage adds up to a 2.4 win season. For a reliever, that&#8217;s an incredible sum. Brian Wilson&#8217;s work out of the bullpen was one of the highlights of the Giants&#8217; 2009 season. But, as his price rises through arbitration, the Giants might want to start combing their system for their next great relief arm.</p>
<p><em>*A quick word about leverage, 1.0 indicates a neutral situation. Closers tend to work around 1.8 and guys who are mopping up will be below 1.0. Read more about <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/get-to-know-leverage-index">leverage at FanGraphs. </a><br />
</em></p>
<p>Phil Hughes&#8217; success as a reliever has been well documented but despite his sub-2.00 FIP score, he was leveraged pretty low. You can chalk that up to team composition. When you&#8217;ve got Mariano Rivera in front of you, you&#8217;re probably not going to get the high leveraged situations. Also of note is Luis Perdomo, former Rule 5 pick by the Giants. Perdomo is notable not because he performed well for the Padres, but because his average leverage index of 0.28 was by far the lowest of all our relievers. In order to keep a Rule 5 pick, he must remain on your active roster for the entire season and it&#8217;s pretty obvious that the Padres hid Perdomo in their bullpen, only letting him out when the situation allowed.</p>
<p>Managers seem to have an idea of who their best reliever is and how they should use him. Which makes me think that the idea of managing a bullpen is overrated to an extent. Should we give credit for a manager realizing who his relief ace is and when to use him? Even if managers are judging relievers by things like ERA or scouting reports, it seems that by and large, they make the right call. Which makes me think, is it all that hard to do?</p>
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		<title>That Settles That (Update: Things Going Crazy)</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2009/03/31/that-settles-that/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baycityball.com/2009/03/31/that-settles-that/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 16:49:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Quick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[brandon medders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emmanuel Burriss]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[justin miller]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kevin frandsen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luis perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[second base]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=3676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hot off the BaggsPress: Kevin Frandsen was called into Bruce Bochy’s office this morning and left in street clothes. The Giants just gave the official word: he has been optioned and will begin the season at Triple-A Fresno. All signs pointed to this yesterday. Jesus Guzman confirmed he has been reassigned to minor league camp. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hot off the <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2009/03/31/frandsen-apparently-out-guzman-reassigned/#comments">BaggsPress</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>Kevin Frandsen was called into Bruce Bochy’s office this morning and left in street clothes. The Giants just gave the official word: he has been optioned and will begin the season at Triple-A Fresno. All signs pointed to this yesterday.</p>
<p>Jesus Guzman confirmed he has been reassigned to minor league camp. He’ll go to Fresno but wasn’t told what position he’ll be playing. That’s TBD by Brian Sabean.</p>
<p>Brandon Medders and Justin Miller also received bad news this morning. Miller confirmed that both have been reassigned. Will check back when there’s something official.</p></blockquote>
<p>There&#8217;s some chatter regarding if Frandsen has any options left. I&#8217;m not sure, anyone out there know? The Giants are prepared to head into the 2009 season with Burriss as the starting second baseman. I expect Bochy will make a statement sometime today. I&#8217;m also surprised to see Miller and Medders get reassigned. I expected Miller to make the team and maybe Medders, too. Luis Perdomo&#8217;s chances are probably pretty good right now.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll update with more details as they are released. I&#8217;m wondering how Fransden&#8217;s career will shape out now? He&#8217;ll be 27-years-old and still in AAA.</p>
<p>&#8212;</p>
<p>Update: Things just get getting more interesting. Again, from Baggs.</p>
<blockquote><p>We just chatted with Bruce Bochy and through his comments, along with some divining, we basically have the Giants’ 25-man roster. Here it is:</p>
<p>Starting pitchers (5): Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez</p>
<p>Relievers (7): Brian Wilson, Jeremy Affeldt, Bob Howry, Alex Hinshaw, Merkin Valdez, Luis Perdomo, long man to be determined (Keiichi Yabu, Ramon Ortiz are the top in-house options).</p>
<p>Catchers (1): Bengie Molina.</p>
<p>Infielders (6): 1B Travis Ishikawa, 2B Emmanuel Burriss, SS Edgar Renteria, 3B/C Pablo Sandoval, INF Rich Aurilia, INF Juan Uribe.</p>
<p>Outfielders (6): CF Aaron Rowand, RF Randy Winn, LF Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholtz, Andres Torres, Eugenio Velez.</p></blockquote>
<p>That&#8217;s a bunch of OF&#8217;s (6!) and UTIL players (2!) to have on one roster. Both Torres and Velez making the team is kinda weird since they are basically the same-ish player. Torres might be better defensively but he is a minor league journeyman. And, maybe the most shocking thing of all, is that the Giants aren&#8217;t going to carry a back-up catcher right now. Instead, they&#8217;ll give Pablo Sandoval a crash course in the final weak of Spring Training and let him back-up Bengie. If it&#8217;s one thing the Giants can&#8217;t seem to make up their mind about, it&#8217;s whether or not they like Sandoval at catcher. Lot&#8217;s of back-and-forth on that one.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m not sure I get having two utility players in Uribe and Aurilia &#8212; they are both pretty much the same thing. I&#8217;m going to anticipate a ton of double-switching this year. The rest of the blog post on Extra Baggs is really solid and it&#8217;s answers some other roster questions. Go <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2009/03/31/bochy-more-or-less-sets-giants-roster/">check it out.</a></p>
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		<title>Rule 5 Draft Results</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/11/rule-5-draft-results/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/11/rule-5-draft-results/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 11 Dec 2008 20:06:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Quick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ben copeland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[elio sarmiento]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[kyle haines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luis perdomo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[matt yourkin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rule 5 draft]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=2583</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Baseball America has just posted the results for the Rule 5 Draft. Players Acquired: RHP Luis Perdomo (MLB Phase, drafted from Cardinals), LHP Matt Yourkin (AAA Phase, drafted from Marlins) Players Lost: OF Ben Copeland (MLB Phase, drafted by Athletics), C Elio Sarmiento (AAA Phase, drafted by Rangers), 2B Kyle Haines (AAA Phase, drafted by [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Baseball America has just posted the <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1829">results for the Rule 5 Draft</a>.</p>
<p><strong>Players Acquired</strong>: RHP <span class="content">Luis Perdomo (<em>MLB Phase, drafted from Cardinals</em>), LHP Matt Yourkin (<em>AAA Phase, drafted from Marlins</em>)</span></p>
<p><span class="content"><strong>Players Lost</strong>: OF Ben Copeland (<em>MLB Phase, drafted by Athletics</em>), C </span><span class="content">Elio Sarmiento (<em>AAA Phase, drafted by Rangers</em>), 2B Kyle Haines (<em>AAA Phase, drafted by Phillies).</em></span></p>
<p><span class="content">The Giants picked up two pitchers in Perdomo and Yourkin and lose a couple of position players in Copeland, Sarmiento, and Haines. Let&#8217;s see what the Giants got.</span></p>
<p><span class="content">Luis Perdomo is a 24-year-old 6&#8242; tall right-handed reliever from the D.R. He started 2008 in the Indians organization but was traded to the Cardinals for pitcher Anthony Reyes. He pitched across two levels, A+ and AA, this year. While with the Indians he played with the A+ Kinston team and in 37.1 IP, he struck out 42 hitters and walked 15. That&#8217;s good for a K% of 29 and a BB% of 10.3. He was then moved to AA Akron and pitched another 15.1 innings &#8212; K% of 27.5 and a BB% of 7.5 &#8212; before landing in AA Springfield and the Cardinals organization in the Reyes trade. He pitched 15.1 innings for Akron and continued to post a strong K% of 27. </span></p>
<p><span class="content">BA described his pitching arsenal as:</span></p>
<blockquote><p><span class="content">Despite being old for his level, the 6-foot, 170-pound Perdomo offers an intriguing package coming out of the bullpen, seeing as he has two pitches that grade out as at least plus. His fastball sits at 94 mph and touches 95. His slider might be his best pitch, though, as it&#8217;s a hard 86-88 offering with good tilt that has proven to be lethal against righthanded batters. Perdomo has a loose, quick arm with clean arm action.</span></p></blockquote>
<p><span class="content">He sounds like your classic righty with good velocity, but with a few control problems. He&#8217;ll fit right in with our relievers. He <a href="http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Luis%20Perdomo&amp;pos=P&amp;sid=milb&amp;t=p_pbp&amp;pid=466412">pitched briefly</a> in the Dominican Winter League but only threw 4 innings in November and has yet to throw again. He might stick with the Giants, and he might not. The rules of the Rule 5 Draft state that you must keep the player on your 25-man roster for the entire season or send him back to the original team &#8212; along with the money that the pick cost.</span></p>
<p><span class="content">LHP Matt Yourkin was taken in the AAA Phase from the Florida Marlins. Yourkin is a 27-year-old left-handed pitcher who signed with the Marlins in 2003 as an undrafted free agent. I couldn&#8217;t find any scouting report on him but he looks like your typical AAA reliver. Over 5 minor league seasons he owns a 4.15 ERA to go with a 8.6 K/9 and a 3.6 BB/9. He should help pad out the Grizzlies roster next season. </span></p>
<p><span class="content">The Giants lose &#8212; that is if the A&#8217;s keep him &#8212; OF Ben Copeland. Copeland was the top-pick of the Giants in the 2005 draft when they took him in the 4th round. If you&#8217;ll remember, the Giants didn&#8217;t get to pick that year until the 4th round because of the Mike Matheny, Omar Vizquel, and Armando Benitez signings. Copeland can play an adequate CF and he could also see time in the corners making him a nice 4/5th OF option to have. He&#8217;s excelled against RHP in his minor league career &#8212; career line of: .300/.385/.454 &#8212; but has struggled to hit lefties &#8212; career line of: .240/.318 /.337. The fact that he struggles so bad against LHP limits him to the 4/5th OF role but he can play all three OF positions and handle RHP well enough. He could stick with Oakland in a reserve role.</span></p>
<p><span class="content">In the minor league phase, the Giants lost 2B Kyle Haines and C Elio </span><span class="content">Sarmiento. Haines is a 25-year-old second baseman who&#8217;s never played beyond AA Connecticut. He was drafted in the 31st round of the 2004 draft. Elio Sarmiento is a 22-year-old catcher out of Venzueala. He played most of 2008 for San Jose and over three minor league seasons he&#8217;s hit a combined: .234/.308/.316. No word on how good defensively he is. Neither Haines or Sarmiento figured into the Giants future plans, both will be minor league depth for their new organizations. </span></p>
<p><span class="content">&#8212;</span></p>
<p><span class="content">E: And it appears that Merkin Valdez is injured again. <a href="http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2008/12/11/merkin-valdez-scheduled-to-have-surgery-again/">Baggs is reporting</a> that Merkin is going to undergo forearm surgery on this coming Monday. He should be sidelined for 4-6 weeks. Guy just can&#8217;t stay healthy.<br />
</span></p>
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