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	<title>Bay City Ball &#187; Kyle Farnsworth</title>
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		<title>If You Didn&#8217;t Like The Howry-Affeldt Deals&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/12/if-you-didnt-like-the-howry-affeldt-deals/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baycityball.com/2008/12/12/if-you-didnt-like-the-howry-affeldt-deals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Dec 2008 16:09:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Quick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[General Baseball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bob howry]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[jeremy affeldt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kyle Farnsworth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WAR]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=2604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You should probably like them a good bit more now: The Royals are closing in on a two-year deal to sign right-hander Kyle Farnsworth as a setup reliever, MLB.com has learned. Also, the Royals announced on Thursday they signed right-hander Doug Waechter as a middle reliever and left-hander Horacio Ramirez as a starter, both to [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You should <a href="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081211&amp;content_id=3713165&amp;vkey=news_kc&amp;fext=.jsp&amp;c_id=kc">probably like them a good bit more now</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>The Royals are closing in on a two-year deal to sign right-hander Kyle Farnsworth as a setup reliever, MLB.com has learned.</p>
<p>Also, the Royals announced on Thursday they signed right-hander Doug Waechter as a middle reliever and left-hander Horacio Ramirez as a starter, both to one-year contracts. The Ramirez deal was reported earlier.</p></blockquote>
<p>Once he passes his physical, the Royals will finalize the deal and sign reliever Kyle Farnsworth to a 2-year, $9.25M deal. Horacio Ramirez signed for a 1-year, $1.8M deal and Doug Waechter got 1-year, $640K contract. The Waechter signing isn&#8217;t terrible, he&#8217;s got a chance to be a below-average reliever. It&#8217;s not a bad chance to take on seeing if he can eat some low-leverage innings. But, throwing a little over $11M at Farnsworth and Ramirez is hard to defend.</p>
<p>Farnsworth is the textbook definition of: Great &#8220;stuff&#8221; &#8212; AKA, he throws very hard &#8212; but gets little results. I was truly shocked to see Ramirez get a major league deal. In 2007 Ramirez put together a spectacularly bad season. His line from &#8217;07: <em>98 IP, 139 H, 86 R, 78 ER, 13 HR, 42 BB, 40 SO, 61 ERA+</em>. He resurfaced last year as a reliever and split time with the White Sox and Royals. He pitched 37 innings out of the bullpen and posted a 101 ERA+. If you made me squint really hard, I could see Ramirez as bullpen fodder, a mop-up guy who comes into the game when the team is either down or up by a large amount of runs.</p>
<p>But, here&#8217;s the kicker:</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Our expectation is that Horacio Ramirez will be part of our starting rotation in 2009,&#8221; Moore said.</p></blockquote>
<p>Gah. Oh, Dayton, you are <em>crazy</em>. Ask any Mariner fan who watched him pitch in 2007 about the prospects of Ramirez being a starter. He simply isn&#8217;t someone who should be starting for a major league team. I would give Brad Hennessey a better chance of pitching 140 innings than Ramirez.</p>
<p>Back to Farnsworth, Marcel projects him as a 4.80 FIP reliever in 2009. That seems about right, over the last three years Farnsworth has had FIP&#8217;s of: 3.77, 5.04, and 5.49. Farnsworth will probably be working the 8th inning in KC, so if you account for some leverage in his valuation, he&#8217;s probably going to be worth around +0.5 wins above replacement. Teams are paying about $5M per win above replacement this offseason, so he&#8217;s valued around $2.5M per season. The Royals are essentially paying twice for what a replacement win should cost. Meanwhile, Affeldt and Howry are worth around +0.5 wins and that&#8217;s without any leverage. If they both work late-inning situations &#8212; where leverage is higher &#8212; they should be worth around +1 win per.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s some WAR calculations without the leverage scores factored in:</p>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 306pt;" border="0" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0" width="407">
<col style="width: 75pt;" width="100"></col>
<col style="width: 32pt;" width="42"></col>
<col style="width: 35pt;" width="46"></col>
<col style="width: 32pt;" width="43"></col>
<col style="width: 48pt;" span="2" width="64"></col>
<col style="width: 36pt;" width="48"></col>
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<td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 75pt;" width="100" height="17"><strong>Name</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 32pt;" width="42"><strong>IP</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 35pt;" width="46"><strong>ERA</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 32pt;" width="43"><strong>WAR</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><strong>$WAR</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 48pt;" width="64"><strong>Actual</strong></td>
<td class="xl24" style="width: 36pt;" width="48"><strong>Diff</strong></td>
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<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Kyle Farnsworth</td>
<td class="xl24">61</td>
<td class="xl24">4.80</td>
<td class="xl24">-0.01</td>
<td class="xl25">$0.36</td>
<td class="xl25">$4.63</td>
<td class="xl24">-4.27</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Jeremy Affeldt</td>
<td class="xl24">71</td>
<td class="xl24">4.14</td>
<td class="xl24">0.38</td>
<td class="xl25">$2.23</td>
<td class="xl25">$4.00</td>
<td class="xl24">-1.77</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">
<td class="xl24" style="height: 12.75pt;" height="17">Bob Howry</td>
<td class="xl24">68</td>
<td class="xl24">4.10</td>
<td class="xl24">0.40</td>
<td class="xl25">$2.32</td>
<td class="xl25">$2.75</td>
<td class="xl24">-0.43</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Farnsworth is pretty much the definition of a replacement-level reliever in the American League. I might be biased, but I think Affeldt and Howry are good bets to beat their projected ERA&#8217;s. Howry should benefit some from pitching in AT&amp;T, especially against LHB&#8217;s which hit 4 HR&#8217;s off of him. Between Affeldt and Howry &#8212; if you give them a slight boost for leverage &#8212; the Giants added about +2 wins to their bullpen for $6.75M total. Howry could hit some incentives in his contract, but that&#8217;s still a great buy. Those +2 wins should be valued around $10M total. On the other hand, the Royals are paying Farnsworth $4.6M per season for about a +0.5 wins. That&#8217;s not so good. If Farnsworth can pitch like he did in 2005-2006 he&#8217;ll be a better value.</p>
<p>Sabes has made some nice bullpen moves this season.</p>
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