It seems like “Blueprint Games” have been few and far between, mostly because it’s really hard to whittle away against a major league team for nine innings and still come away with the win. If the Giants give up more than 4-runs in a game, they’re doomed. The average National League team this year scores about 4.52 runs per game, the Giants are at 3.85 per game. Only the Nationals and Padres — 3.71 and 3.83 — are worse. The Giants pitching has given up 4.74 runs per game this year, largely due to a weak bullpen that’s ranked dead last in ERA in the National League. In fact, the Giants bullpen has a WPA of -1.48 which places them next to last for bullpen WPA in the NL, once again, only Washington has had worse production from their ‘pen with a score of -2.38.

The Giants had the idea that they could scratch and claw and fight for games by doing the right things, but they lacked the run prevention abilities (defense and bullpen support) to actually get any traction. Oh well, lessons learned, we hope so at least. I think the Giants struggles also have shown that how hard it is to win regular season baseball in a modern era where scoring runs equal one half of the important equation of winning. The Giants’ run differential — how many runs scored versus how many runs allowed — is currently at -108. It’s not the worst differential but it does tell a tale.

Anyways, I’ll take the win, even if it was out-of-the-ordinary for this team. It was good to see Manny get on via a walk, steal 2nd, move to third on a flyball, and then run wildly home for the win.

Also of interest is that Matt Palmer probably bought himself another start or two with his outing yesterday. It wasn’t spectacular — he got a little walky in the 4th, issuing 3 walks in that inning — but he gave the Giants 6-innings of 2-run ball. That’s more than you can say for Zito some days. I would say that yesterday is probably Palmer’s ceiling in terms of effectiveness, he’ll get the occasional groundball, hang the occasional breaking pitch, and hopefully stick in the game long enough to eat innings.

Baggs ponders on the possibilities of Palmer’s pitching performance, wondering if it increases the chances of a 6-man rotation for the rest of the year?

If Palmer can continue to pitch well, the Giants will be more likely to consider a six-man rotation as a way of taking it easy on their younger starters. They only have two days off in September, with few chances to give guys an extra day. So that might not be a bad idea.

I’m assuming that a 6-man rotation includes Sanchez? His MRI results were encouraging but I would much rather err on the side of caution and just shut him down for the year. He has increased his workload by enough and I’m not seeing much to be gained by starting him any more this year. Take it easy on the lefty, Giants.

—

Lowry Update: Lowry’s chances of pitching this year are “bleak” according to a SFGiants.com article. Lowry has still yet to throw off a mound and in a game scenario.

Lowry, the Giants’ leading winner in two of the previous three seasons, has been playing catch every other day for about a month.

“My arm is back to — I don’t want to say ‘normal,’ but with all the time [off], my arm’s had a chance to fully recover,” he said.

Lowry is hoping to play some Winterball to get his arm back in shape. Lowry’s status with the Giants is still very much up in the air. His last contract year with the club is in ’09 and unless he wanted to come back on a incentive-laded value deal, I don’t think the Giants should consider Lowry. His health concerns are a definite roadblock and they won’t know how Lowry does in game situations until Winterball. Best of luck, Noah.

Comment Starter: True or False: Lowry will start 12 games or more for the Giants in ’09.

This is the first interview that I’ve done for Bay City Ball and I hope that everyone enjoys it. With Frandsen going down yesterday with an achilles injury, the Giants are faced with another tough injury to work through. Already in the Spring several Giants have dealt with injuries that have ranged from nagging to more serious. Just to name a few bit by the injury bug: Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham, Bengie Molina, Tim Lincecum, Kevin Correia, Rich Aurilia, and now, unfortunately, Kevin Frandsen.

Now let’s get the interview started.

Bay City Ball: The news is out that 2B Kevin Frandsen has ruptured his achillies and could miss the entire season. Now, I’m not a doctor but that sounds extremely painful. Anytime I hear the word “rupture” I squirm. What are the implications of such an injury? Both in a recovery time frame and how it effects a player’s ability to play the game — field, run, hit, etc.? Any good historical precedents for a baseball player rupturing his achilles and making a successful comeback?

Will Carroll: He’s done for the year, sadly. “Rupture” just means that it’s a complete tear. It will be surgically reattached and he’ll be fine. Most come back normally, a bit less speed. I can name a lot more football players, but Gabe Kapler comes to mind.

BCB: In the 2006 draft, one of the reasons that Tim Lincecum fell to the Giants at a #10 pick was rumors that many teams had concerns about his health. Mainly his small stature combined with a funky whirling delivery. Just how much does size or having “a pitchers body” matter when you yourself look at a pitcher? Is the belief that pint-sized pitchers are more prone to injuries a myth or something more truthful?

WC: All things equal, I’ll take the bigger, stronger guy, but who’s equal to Lincecum? His delivery is about timing and force, not strength. Last I looked, Greg Maddux wasn’t a big guy. Sandy Koufax was skinny.

BCB: The Giants have already had a large amount of injuries and set-backs occur in Spring Training. Most of them seem to be centered around leg issues. For example: Durham (hamstring), Molina (quad), Aurilia (hamstring), Vizquel (knee). Are leg injuries more prevalent as an injury-type to players as they age or are player’s legs behind the rest of their bodies at this time of year?

WC: A bit — we see more strains as players age. It’s mostly a recovery issue. Durham has a long history of leg injuries so it isn’t a “this spring” issue. Vizquel’s knee is a traumatic thing, just one of those things that happens in the season and luckily he’s in such good shape that he can come back from it quickly.

BCB: Aaron Rowand is known for throwing around his body with reckless abandon. If you had to assign the Giants new high priced center fielder a percentage between 0-100 on the chance that he’ll be healthy for the majority of the season, what would you give him?

WC: Depends on what you mean by “healthy” — I think he’ll end up on the DL at some point but I know that the way he plays takes something out of him with soreness and being “banged up” in various ways. So “zero”.

BCB: Only Honus Wagner – 1915 and 1916 – and Luke Appling – 1949 – have appeared in 100 games or more at shortstop at or past the age of 41. Do you think Omar could join them and play in 100 or more games this year in his age 41 season? He’s reportedly already taking batting practice albeit with some slight pain in his knee.

WC: Yeah, I think so. He’s obviously a pretty big outlier but there’s no reason to think that 100 isn’t reachable. I think he’ll have a pretty steep slide at some point, so they’ll need to be smart about how they use him. The lack of depth is more problematic.

—

Thanks, again, go out to Will Carroll.

From SFGiants.com

Frandsen was testing his leg after being sidelined since March 16 with tendinitis. Manager Bruce Bochy, who accompanied the Giants here for their 6-5 exhibition loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks, was told that Frandsen had singled and was rounding second base on his way to third when he hurt himself.

Frandsen’s expected to undergo a magnetic resonance imaging examination Tuesday to confirm the severity of the injury. Bochy said that Frandsen will be sidelined for five to six months if he’s hurt as badly as is believed.

Frandsen already had what was described as a “sour achillies” and was trying to come back from the injury. Bochy was quoted as saying that Frandsen would be out at least for 5-6 months, the Giants won’t know the severity of his injury until they get the results back on his MRI. With Durham’s hot spring it was doubtful that Frandsen would have started the year as a starter, but it’s a role he could have captured for himself somewhere down the line in 2007. The 25-year-old Frandsen — he’ll turn 26 in May — was one of the few young players that could have potentially made an impact on the Giants club this year. Missing a year could throw a wrench into his development, considering he’ll be 27 by next season if he’s back and healthy.

The Frandsen injury makes the following true:

1. Ray Durham will definitely start at 2B — if he’s healthy enough — and most likely won’t be traded until the trading deadline if we’re lucky. A Durham trade at the deadline will only happen if Ray can stay healthy enough to convince a team that he’ll at least be able to get on the field and if he’s hit well enough to that point.

2. Eugenio Velez just made the team. Velez was probably still going to make the team but with Frandsen going down, Velez is a lock. He can play 2B and he’s even had some time at 3B this spring. Both of those are positions that Frandsen would have been playing, so Velez will get slotted into his role — utility guy — and might even force his way into a few starts at some point.

3. Jose Castillo is probably staying for good as well. The newest Giant can play 2B/3B/SS and will most likely see time at all three positions now that Frandsen is gone and Omar is still recovering. Castillo isn’t a good player by any standard but the Giants sorely lacked IF depth and Castillo gives them a warm body to stick in the field. At least he’s not Neifi.

Losing Frandsen for the season, potentially, is something that stings a little. I had my reservations about Frandsen — like whether or not he’ll hit the ball on the ground 52.7% of the time this year like he did last — but he was a young-ish player that had a small amount of talent that the Giants sorely needed to evaluate this year. He’s probably not going to turn into the next Robby Thompson but finding out what he could and couldn’t do this year was something that the Giants needed to find out. Also, like it or not but he was practically the face of the “Gamers” campaign — I can’t stand the radio ads, or the overall concept, but I can imagine many people liked Frandsen because he got his jersey dirty, wore eye black, and played hard — and to lose him hurts that campaign.

The deck could very well be stacked against Frandsen making it as a regular in the MLB — I can’t think of many guys who make their debuts as regulars in their late 20′s and then go onto great success — but I hope Kevin’s recovery is swift and complete. See you in 2009.

Whatever this show is called, it has a controlled fury that teeters on the edge of sheer ridiculousness. Everyone seems to be going a million-miles-an-hour and in different directions. The tanned bimbos with huge collagen injected lips. The body builder-looking guys that chase them. The older business men in three piece suits that are always plotting some diabolical scheme. Everyone is primed and ready to blow up at any second.

This is how I kinda feel when talking about Noah Lowry with Giants fans.

I will say something like:

“Boy, Noah Lowry’s peripherals sure are scary, I’m rather concerned about his ability to not totally stink in the future”

I’ll undoubtedly hear back something like:

“Noah Lowry is [clutch/gritty/cute/a gamer] and he knows how to [win/battle/give-his-team-a-chance] just look at this [poor stat], you’re just wrong!”

Lowry exploded onto the scene during the season in 2004 when the Giants called him up. In 92-innings he posted a 3.82 ERA while throwing a video game changeup that had every major-leaguer swinging out of their fashionable cleats. Lowry was a fairly nondescript prospect — didn’t throw hard or have a lot of press — but when he came to the majors, he got a lot of people excited. Including me.

I still remember this game against the Reds from ’04 when Lowry took Giants fans by surprise. 9 innings pitched, 3 hits, 9 strike outs, and no runs. He was a lefty, didn’t throw terribly hard, but the change was a thing of beauty and many fans were hooked. Going into the 2005 season, a lot of people expected a breakout season from Lowry and they got the very thing they wished for.

In ’05 Lowry posted a 3.78 ERA in over 200-innings of baseball. The changeup was still giving hitters fits and his record of 13-13 pleased a lot of fans. Including me. He was a young lefty that could fill the lefty void after Kirk Rueter left the team. ’05 was the year when Reuter’s luck finally ran out. He left the Giants and baseball after posting an ERA of 5.95. Only 24-years-old, Lowry’s promise seemed high.

But 2006 would be a difficult year for Lowry. In his very first start of the season against the Atlanta Braves, Lowry strained his oblique after 2 innings of pitching and had to come out of the game. He was sidelined for an entire month until May. When he came back, he didn’t have the strikeout stuff that he showed in his first 1.5 seasons. The league adjusting to him? Maybe. But the oblique injury led to a lot of speculation that Lowry was having trouble “pulling” down and “finishing” his pitches. He finished the year with a disappointing 4.74 ERA.

Coming into 2007 everyone was ready for the vintage 04-05 Lowry to reappear. Throwing dastardly change after change, keeping hitters off balance, posting a modest K-rate, and becoming once again, a solid young member of the Giants rotation. If you judged Lowry’s season by the “baseball card” numbers, it doesn’t look so bad. He won a career high 14 games and kept his ERA under 4. His ERA of 3.92 was almost a full run lower than his ’06 ERA. But Lowry ran into forearm troubles near the end of the year and had to miss the final month. The changeup didn’t seem to be there anymore for Lowry and it appeared that he was throwing a slow, looping curve more than the beloved change. Myself and many other Giants fans started to become concerned about Lowry.

Spring Training has been no safe haven thus far for Lowry. His first start against the Cubs brought with it some of his wildness from ’07. But, what’s really gotten people talking was his last start against the Texas Rangers. He walked 9 batters in 1-inning, threw 2 wild pitches, and several to the back stop. After the game, Lowry left without speaking to the press and it has since been discovered that Lowry has wrist tendinitis. He’s supposed to sit out for a “few days” but Lowry’s injury troubles over the last few years have become a real source of concern.

Whats the Big Deal?

Talking about Lowry is often a hot-button-topic with Giants fans. For whatever reason, people seem to get really defensive about him. But, the facts are that Lowry has had a down trending since his breakout ’05. My main concern with Lowry — besides his injury troubles which surely contribute to his recent problems — have been that he’s striking out less hitters while walking more. Sounds simple, right? Pitchers can’t control much of what happens after they throw a ball. How many batters they walk, strike out, and the type of contact to an extent are on the short list of things that a pitcher can control. Two of those three things — K’s and BB’s — are important outcomes that Lowry has gotten worse at over the past few years.

I decided to graph out, by month and year, Lowry’s K% and BB% since ’05 to ’07. League average K% tends to be around 16% and BB% tends to be around 8%. BB% is a little higher in the AL because of the DH.

Here’s how Lowry has done, month-by-month, from ’05-’07. Also, I didn’t include April/Mar of ’06 and Sept/Oct. of ’08 because Lowry was injured and either barely pitched — 2 innings in April/Mar of ’06 — or didn’t pitch at all — Sept/Oct. ’08.

For 2005, Lowry’s K% and BB% on the year was 19.5% and 8.68% respectively. He had an above average K% and right around league average for BB%. Lowry started his trend of strong August performances in ’05 with a K% of 22.4% and a very-low BB% of 6.1%. Those are very strong numbers. Lowry posted excellent K% numbers in May, July, and August. Each month his K% was above 20%. I think it’s interesting to note that Lowry’s control has always been around average. In ’05 his BB% was just around league average but his K% was above league average. I think you can make a case that when Lowry stopped striking out hitters like he used to in ’05, was when he really started to run into some trouble.

As you can see, in ’06 Lowry’s control essentially stayed the same. Popping up and over the league average BB% line throughout the season but after Lowry’s oblique strain, he stopped striking out hitters. This is key. You can tell when the injury happened because the K% drops sharply from an average of 19.5% in ’05 to an average of 11.86% in ’06. Part of the drop could be due to better scouting or the league becoming more accustomed to Lowry but I’d bet that most of that near 8% drop had to do with Lowry’s injury. Lowry lost the ability to strikeout hitters which greatly hurt his game.

Here’s where things get even messier. Despite his nice ERA and W/L record in ’07, Lowry’s peripherals further deteriorated. Lowry actually boosted his K% slightly in ’07 — from 11.86% to 12.38% — but Lowry’s undoing was his BB% which was among the worst in the majors in ’07. His BB% on the year was 12.58%. It’s just not possible to be walking that many guys and still be successful. Lowry’s below average K% — even though it was boosted slightly, it was still below average — and very poor BB% is what had many Giants fans concerned about Lowry’s future prospects, despite his ERA or W/L record.

This is exactly why ERA is a bad predictive measure of a pitchers ability.I can’t stress that enough. Lowry’s sub-4 ERA looks nice on the surface but there was a whole-buncha’ bad stuff going on under the surface. Taking into account things like BB%, K%, LD%, GB%, and a few other stats are much, much more useful and accurate at predicting a players future performance than just ERA. ERA can really mask a lot of bad things going on in a pitchers background, like Lowry’s declining K’s and increasing BB’s.

Throughout 2007 Lowry’s control got worse and by the years end, he had to exit early because of forearm problems. This is why many GM’s were scared off by Lowry and hesitant to trade for him. Any GM worth his salt would be able to quickly look at Lowry’s underlying stats and know that something bad was around the corner.

Here’s the same graph above, but with the league K% and BB% removed and linear trend lines added to Lowry’s K% and BB% from ’05-’07 when looked at month-by-month.

K’s go down. Walk’s go up. Bad signs for a pitcher.

Lowry did slightly increase his GB% in 2007 but up until that year, he’d always been a flyball pitcher. So, I’ll not put much stock into Lowry reinventing himself as a GB pitcher. Also, his GB% was far from what I’d consider a strong groundballer.

Walking into the Future?

I’ve been accused of “just not liking Noah Lowry” but the fact is, I’ve always been a fan of him. I like nothing more than watching a pitcher with a great change make hitters look bad. Especially when the pitcher doesn’t throw extremely hard, it’s just fun to watch.

But I can’t ignore the facts.

1) Lowry has had health concerns every year since his very good 2005 season. It’s assured that his health problems have contributed somewhat to his decline but I can’t say for sure how much. His recent Spring Training problems — even though I don’t put any stock into Spring Training stats themselves — are alarming. Not so much because of the results, but because they fit into where he’s been trending towards the last few years. The “tendinitis” is another bump in Lowry’s health history.

2) His K% has been dropping since 2005. He slightly boosted it in ’07 but a boost of 1% isn’t enough for Lowry. Furthermore, it’s still below average while his BB% is grossly high. When Lowry was having success, he was striking out batters, a skill that he’s either lost because of injury or ineffectiveness.

3) His BB% has also gotten worse. Like I said directly above, it’s extremely bad. A pitcher can’t be successful if he’s walking 5 guys per 9 innings, theres no two ways around it.

I’ve always been a fan of Noah Lowry and I’ll continue to be one. Because of his contract, if he can even pitch close to league average he’s going to have some value in today’s pitching market — one that’s giving Livan Hernanndez a potential $5M+ to pitch — but each year he’s further removed from his ’05 season and as the injury concerns continue to pile up, his future gets a little dimmer each day. I’d love nothing more for Lowry to get healthy this year and come back strong. I’ll just remain pessimistically optimistic until then.

It looks like Vizquel could miss the first couple of weeks of the season, depending on how the surgery and rehab go. With his age — Omar will be 41 this year — it doesn’t seem impossible that he could have some lingering problems. 41-year-old shortstops are a rarity in the game of baseball. Even the great Ozzie Smith only played in 82 games in his age 41 season. It was the final season in Ozzie’s spectacular career.

Losing Omar really downgrades the infield defense. As of now, the Giants are going to play Kevin Frandsen at shortstop. With the injury temporarily ending the second base competition between Ray and Kevin, Durham is assured to start the season as the regular second baseman for the Giants. Frandsen obviously isn’t a shortstop. In his minor league career, he’s only appeared at short in 44 games as compared to 185 at 2B. Frandsen started 15 games at shortstop for the Giants in 2007 and it was obvious that he was either uncomfortable or stretched at the position. I’d say it’s probably a little bit of both.

Frandsen’s sample size at SS is so small, looking at any defensive metric isn’t really going to help. Tom Tango’s excellent Fan Scouting Reports had the fans rating Frandsen a 45 overall as a fielder. In Tango’s system, 50 is considered league average, so Frandsen by the fan rating is a little under league average. Move him from an easier position (2B) to a harder position (SS) and it could be an adventure. The Giants seem to be serious about finding Frandsen playing time and for now it’ll have to be at short.

As I stated above, Omar’s injury really downgrades the infield defense. In addition to moving Frandsen to a position where he’ll most likley be stretched as a fielder, it’s making Durham a full-time starter again. Leg injuries have hampered Durham’s range over the past few years and his defense has suffered. In ’07, by the Fielding Bible, Durham was a -10, meaning that he made 10 less plays than your average second baseman would have. With Durhams age and chronic leg problems, he’ll probably once again be in the negative for ’08. Losing Omar essentially downgrades both SS and 2B in one move.

If the Giants don’t trade for Joe Crede and decide to start Aurilia at 3B, the infield could look pretty scary. I’ll give Frandsen the optimistic bump and say that he could play SS at least close to average defensively. I think that’s really generous, but Durham is going to be below average and Aurilia is probably going to be the same at third. Ort should be fine at 1B, I think he’ll play the position at least average and Molina is a below average catcher. Weight issues and the lack of mobility have really hurt him.

Put it this way:

The Giants are going to have to replace Pedro Feliz — the best defensive 3B in all of baseball — and Omar Vizquel — not what he used to be, but still an excellent defender at SS — with Rich Aurilia and Kevin Frandsen.

For a team that needs to rely on defense as one of it’s core components to win games, things just got a little more dicey.

—

I’ve been assured that Vizquel should come back from the injury relatively quickly. That’s a little more palatable. Who knew that a sub-700 OPS shortstop could be needed so much?

/freakout over