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	<title>Bay City Ball &#187; gregg zaun</title>
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		<title>The Giants Should Sign Gregg Zaun</title>
		<link>http://www.baycityball.com/2009/11/09/the-giants-should-sign-gregg-zaun/</link>
		<comments>http://www.baycityball.com/2009/11/09/the-giants-should-sign-gregg-zaun/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:23:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Quick</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Giants]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bengie molina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[buster posey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[catchers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gregg zaun]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.baycityball.com/?p=5010</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There&#8217;s not much left for Buster Posey to prove in the minor leagues. In 2009, the young catcher put up a .433 wOBA in San Jose in 80 games, was promoted to Fresno, and put up a .390 wOBA in 35 games. If a slash-line is more your thing, Buster has a career .327/.421/.538 minor [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There&#8217;s not much left for Buster Posey to prove in the minor leagues. In 2009, the young catcher put up a .433 wOBA in San Jose in 80 games, was promoted to Fresno, and put up a .390 wOBA in 35 games. If a slash-line is more your thing, Buster has a career .327/.421/.538 minor league line. He&#8217;s the best prospect in the Giants&#8217; system and a legitimate Top-5 prospect in all of baseball. As a polished college draft pick, he&#8217;s ready for MLB action.</p>
<p>The Giants have been tentative about naming Posey the starting catcher for 2010 and all signs point to the team bringing in a veteran catcher or bringing back Bengie Molina to help ease Buster into a starting role. Bringing back Molina would probably be one of the worst things for Buster&#8217;s development and the Giants&#8217; wallet. If the Giant chose to offer arbitration to Molina, there&#8217;s a chance he could accept and get a 1-year paycheck around the $6M he earned in &#8217;09. There&#8217;s also some questions about Molina and how happy he would be in a back-up / mentor role. In addition, I just can&#8217;t imagine Bruce Bochy sitting down Molina for Buster Posey.</p>
<p>Thus, the Giants are looking for a catcher with the following requirements:</p>
<ul>
<li>Has veteran experience. Someone who&#8217;s been in the league for more than a few years and has experience working with and catching all sorts of pitchers.</li>
<p></p>
<li>Has good defense or perceived good defense. For this reason, and this reason alone, Eli Whiteside appeared in 47 games with the Giants.</li>
<p></p>
<li>Bonus: Can hit a little.</li>
</ul>
<p>Enter <a href="http://blogs.tampabay.com/rays/2009/11/tampa-bay-rays-pick-up-option-for-lf-carl-crawford-decline-shouse-and-zauns-options.html">Gregg Zaun</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p>The Rays, however, did not pick up the options for LHP reliever Brian Shouse ($2 million) and backup C Gregg Zaun ($2 milion).</p></blockquote>
<p>Gregg Zaun is now a free agent after the Rays declined his option. The Rays chose to pay Zaun $500K instead of picking up his $2M option and bringing him back for the 2010 season. The Rays&#8217; loss could be the Giants gain. Gregg Zaun fits the ideal mold for veteran catcher.</p>
<ul>
<li>The price is right. Zaun would only cost the Giants $2-3M as compared to potentially $6M (or more) for someone like Bengie Molina. It doesn&#8217;t sound like a huge amount of money, but it&#8217;s $2-3M more that the Giants could spend on a more deserving free agent.</li>
<p></p>
<li>Zaun&#8217;s defensive profile is solid. According to this informative post on catcher&#8217;s defense, Zaun was an <a href="http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/2009/10/13/1082419/2009-catcher-defense-filling-in">average defender</a> in 2009. Even if you want to factor in aging, he&#8217;ll be 38-years-old in 2010, Zaun should rate within 2-3 runs of average.</li>
<p></p>
<li>He can hit. Over the past 3 seasons Zaun has posted OBP&#8217;s of .341, .340, and .345. He owns a career OBP of .344 across 15 seasons. Looks much nicer than Molina&#8217;s .285 OBP, right? Don&#8217;t let Molina&#8217;s HR and RBI numbers fool you, Zaun is just as good of a hitter &#8212; if not better. Zaun&#8217;s last three seasons by wOBA: .324, .316, and .334. Compare that to Molina&#8217;s past three seasons: .314, .328, and .308. Zaun is a good bet to either match or better Molina on offense in 2010.</li>
</ul>
<p>If I was a GM and had to pick between Zaun and Molina, I would take Zaun almost every single time. He&#8217;s going to be cheaper than Molina and he&#8217;s got a good chance to give you the same level of performance. If we project Zaun for 2010 he should look like the following:</p>
<blockquote><p>Batting Wins Above Average (.320 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –0.7 wins<br />
Defensive Wins Above Average: -.3 wins<br />
C Positional Adjustment: +1.25 wins<br />
Replacement Level: +2 wins<br />
&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8211;<br />
= 2.25 wins * .50 (or about 350 PA&#8217;s for PT) = +1.13 WAR</p></blockquote>
<p>We&#8217;ve called him a .320 wOBA hitter with -3 run defense behind the plate. All things considered in a part-time sharing role with Posey, Zaun would be worth around +1.13 wins. That makes him around a $4-5M a year player by recent spending on the FA market. Zaun should sign for around $2-3M making him a nice deal. He gives the Giants everything they like in Molina but with a much smaller commitment. Gregg Zaun makes a ton of sense for the Giants.</p>
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