Bay City Ball

Good lord, what a terrible game last night. In the 0.5 seconds it took for Brad Ausmus’ — hereby referred to as the evil one — line drive to reach Lincecum’s knee, every tragic career ending scenario flashed through my head. Watching Lincecum limp badly off the field as he leaned against our head trainer, so to keep his balance, was the worst thing I’ve seen all year in a Giants game.

And that’s saying something, I’ve seen a lot of Jose Castillo.

Getting Lincecum and the other young pitchers through this season healthy and ready for ‘09 is the prime objective. It’s extremely important to the Giants future. That’s it. That’s all there is to it. Without the young pitching — especially Lincecum, who might be one of the best pitchers in the game right-this-very-moment — the Giants have little to work with. The pitching is the beginning foundation of a nice house. Without them, the Giants have a few bits-and-pieces of construction materials, but nothing substantial.

That’s why in those 0.5 seconds of pure horror, everything put into that burgeoning house came tumbling down. Reports last night are that the x-rays are negative and that Lincecum was walking around the clubhouse afterwards on his own power. Both are good signs.

Now, what the Giants shouldn’t do — this seems painfully obvious — is to not try and push Lincecum into his next start. They surely know how valuable he is and as Andrew Baggarly notes, if he did miss a start it might not be the worst thing in the world for him, he’s thrown a bunch of pitches this year and a breather could do his arm good. I worry that the liner hit Lincecum’s right knee, which is his plant-and-push leg. Lincecum has a great stride, almost springing off the mound, and that leg is what holds up the entire process. The Giants might be short on pitching because they don’t get a day off until August 28th. Lincecum’s next start is on Sunday, August 17th. Make a bullpen game out of it if you have to, maybe let Yabu throw 4-5 innings and then go from there.

Following the same Baggs link from above, we’ve got some rumors that 1B Travis Ishikawa could be on his way up to the majors and John Bowker could be on his way down. Bowkermania was a brief and wonderful time, but his plate discipline has been poor this year and he’s had a really hard time in July and August. I don’t mind Bowker going to Fresno to get constant work in a lower pressured environment but I hope we seen him again in the big leagues. He might not be a starter, but he could be a fine 1B or 4th OF on this team. I still like his upside a good bit.

As for Ishikawa, I wrote about him last when he was in AA Connecticut:

The Giants sent Ishikawa back to AA this year and he’s made some noticeable changes. Firstly, he cut his K% down to 16.1%, signaling to me that he’s potentially changed his swing in order to make more contact. Ishikawa’s swing has always considered to be a little long. He also raised his BB% to an excellent 13.6%. He does have noticeable splits but it’s encouraging that he’s hitting even just slightly at Dodd Stadium. Overall his line currently sits at (.291/.380/.467). Because of his struggles against LHP he will most likely max out as a platoon partner at 1B. But, after where he was heading a couple of years ago, he’s made some nice adjustments to his game. Let’s hope that they carry throughout this season and that the Giants move him to AAA before the year is done.

After writing about Ishikawa in June, he was promoted just a couple of days later to AAA Fresno. How has he done in Fresno? He’s been on a tear. In 171 AB’s he’s hit (.310/.370/.737) with 16 HR’s. His BB% has dropped some — from 13.6% in AA to 7.3% in AAA — but he’s killing the ball when he makes contact with an ISOP of .427, some question how his power will translate to the majors but he’s turned himself around this year. Just how far he’s turned himself around and how far he’ll go is still for debate.

His combined MLE’s from both levels are (.257/.335/.468) which seem to be about what I’d expect Ishikawa’s upside to be in the majors. He has some platoon issues — OPS’ing .642 against LHP this year — but with Bowker struggling, he’s earned the chance. He’s supposed to be a strong defender at 1B and should be a better defender than Bowker right now.

Kevin Towers is a good GM.

He always seems to demonstrate a knack for finding good talent and acquiring it on the cheap. Take for example: Cla Meredith, Josh Bard, Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, Scott Linebrink, Heath Bell, and Mike Cameron just to name a few. We might be able to add Justin Huber to that list of good, cheaply acquired players. The Padres just picked up Huber from the Royals for either cash considerations or a PTBNL. Huber, who was out of options, wasn’t likely to make the Royals team. The Royals instead preferred to give playing time at 1B to Ross Gload and Ryan Shealy. Yes, that Ross Gload, the 32-year-old 4th OF, backup 1B, Ross Gload.

Huber is a 1B/LF with an adequate glove to play 1B and most likely a average-to-below average LF. He made a name for himself after his 2005 for the Royals when he hit a combined (.326/.417/.560) in both AA and AAA. The Royals opted to keep him in AAA between 2006 and 2007, giving him only 20 combined AB’s at the major league level over those 2 years. Huber didn’t set the world on fire over those 2 years in AAA but he posted OPS’s of .838 and .858. Semi-respectable but again, not world-setting-on-fire performances.

Here’s the thing: Justin Huber would have been a great fit on the Giants at 1B. He’s got a much stronger minor league career when compared to Ortmeier. Is slightly younger than Ortmeier and has the tools that you would want out of your prospective first baseman — the ability to actually hit. What’s even more amazing than the Giants not biting on Huber, is that the recent comments made by Sabean about Ort, potentially indicating that he wouldn’t be the 1B starter for the Giants when the season started. There is a good chance that if Ortmeier doesn’t make the team as a starting 1B, he won’t make the team at all, as the OF is packed and I don’t think they would keep him as a purely backup first baseman with some of the catchers taking playing time at first this Spring.

Before I get accused by “Sabean supporters” for being guilty of looking at grass on the other side of the division, realize a few things.

• Ortmeier isn’t guaranteed a starting job at first. His spring struggles — even though those stats don’t mean anything — have stirred some statements from Sabean saying that Ort has to earn his job. He hasn’t earned it so far. Besides Ort, the Giants only have Rich Aurilia to currently play first base on the major league roster. Huber would be a fantastic option that isn’t Old Man Aurilia. It’s about good or potentially good options.

• The cost for Huber is so low — cash or a PTNBL — that taking a look at him is all upside. The Giants surely wouldn’t trade anything of value for him and for a team with glaring deficiencies at 1B, he’s a nice cheap option.

• Dan Otmeier is not a first baseman. He’d struggle to crack the team as a reserve outfielder and if given a full season of playing time, he would surely be the worst hitting first baseman in the entire majors. I’ve been amazed time and time again that the Giants seriously have considered turning a 5th OF into a 1B. It just boggles my mind. Just because you can play Ort at first, doesn’t mean you should play him there.

• I’m also not saying that Huber is the next Cust/Pena/AAAA-slugger-sensation, but he represents a very intriguing buy low option for a team like the Giants, that can afford to give players like Huber 400 ABs to see what they can do.

Now, I can’t say for sure that Sabean never made a play for Huber but I can only go on what happened. The Padres picked him up for next to nothing. The Royals were either going to send him through waivers — an indictment of how much the Padres were interested in his bat if they wanted to trade for him before that happened — and hope that he cleared them — unlikely — or trade him for next to nothing. What happened was that the Giants exercised their same line of thinking that’s led them to this point. Not taking risks on players with moderate upside, not trying something different, not going with youth. For a team that’s trying to get younger, a large amount of the starting positional players are way past 30. Aurilia, Omar, Molina, Roberts, Winn, and Durham are all well into their 30’s and I don’t believe that they are starting to build up value so that they’ll be “traded at the trading deadline” either, I’ve heard that song and dance time and time before.

I guess in the end, Huber made too much sense. If he crashed and burned, cut or waive him, you would only be out a small sum of money — in baseball terms — or a junk PTNBL. Little things like this have only enforced my belief that Brian Sabean doesn’t have much of a “post-Bonds” plan and that as the Giants sink towards the bottom of the MLB, they won’t be able to surface until some changes are made.

I also guess that when Dan Ortmeier is your first baseman, anything and almost everything could be an upgrade.

A common rumor that’s been floated among Giants fans all offseason is trying to acquire Nick Johnson from the Nationals. The 29-year-old first baseman is a career (.272/.395/.458) hitter over the parts of 6 seasons. In 2006, while posting a career season — an OPS+ of 149 — Johnson collided with teammate Austin Kearns while attempting to catch a foul ball. The collision resulted in Johnson breaking his femur and missing all of 2007 due to the injury. Leg injuries are a serious thing and it’s still to be seen if Johnson can come back fully healed for 2008, but early reports out of Nationals Spring Training have been positive.

From the Washington Post:

He has been under no limitations in camp, and has tested the leg in nearly every imaginable way — with the exception of sliding. But Johnson said he wouldn’t hesitate to slide in a game.

“It’s not going to affect anything,” he said. “Knowing myself, when I get on the field, if the situation arises I’ll just get down and [slide]. It won’t matter how it feels [afterwards]. A little soreness isn’t going to stop me.”

The Nationals are waiting to evaluate Johnson’s performance this spring before making a decision on their first base situation, where Johnson and veteran Dmitri Young are both seeking the starting job.

Like the end of the blurb states, the Nationals currently have two first basemen that can’t really play anywhere else in Dmitri Young and Nick Johnson. Both are big guys that should never play any other position than first. Johnson is signed through the 2009 season at $5.5M per and Young is also signed through ‘09 for $5M per season with an option for 2010.

The Nationals and the Giants could match well as potential trade partners. The Nationals desperately need pitching and the Giants could use a first baseman, despite the fact that the team seems to be locked into letting Ort sink or swim. A trade that involves Johnson is tricky. First, because of his health and the extent of his leg injury, he might never return to his previous performance. I’ll be very interested to see what Will Carroll from Baseball Prospectus has to say about Johnson in his team health report. Johnson has had a history of injuries — deep bone bruises, some reoccurring back problems, some other minor stuff — and his health is no sure bet. He’ll turn 30 in September and that could start to be the age where he slides downhill for good. But if he’s healthy, he’s a very nice player. Great OBP, solid power. But that’s a big if.

Secondly, and just as important, is who the Giants would send to the Nats in return for Johnson. A semi-healthy Johnson would be a much, much, much better option to hit 4th for the Giants than Bengie Molina but I’d really hate to see the Giants send anything of value to the Nationals for Johnson — such as Jonathan Sanchez, I might be one of his biggest supporters — and end up with an injured player on the downside of his career.

Just who would I trade for Johnson? Well, glad you asked.

Tradeable

• Noah Lowry. Lowry is the next Giants pitcher that I’m working on for the PITCHf/x series but I’ve been concerned about him for the past couple of years. I’ll go into greater detail in his actual article, but injury concerns and declining control have me worried. Don’t pay attention to his wins, because his underlying stats are pretty ugly. A 1:1 ratio of walks to strikeouts? Ewww. I think Lowry’s stock is down, as apparent by some news bits that I’ve read over the offseason, but when your starting rotation includes John Patterson — who was good at one point but has been injured since 2006 — Tim Redding, Tyler Clippard, Mike Bacsik, and John Lannan, Noah Lowry doesn’t look so bad. He would probably slot in as their #2 pitcher behind Patterson. If the Nationals would do a swap of Lowry-for-Johnson, I would make that deal so fast your head would spin. The 2008 PECOTA has Lowry’s ERA projected at 4.72.

• Kevin Correia. Alright, settle down. Yes, Correia had some nice spot starts last year but he’s not going to ever be anything more than a 5th starter. The Giants have several pitchers that I’d much rather see get time in the rotation before Kevin, including Jonathan Sanchez and Pat Misch. Cashing in any value that you can get with Correia is probably a smart move. If any team values him, I’d ship him out.

The scenarios where a Johnson trade would work for the Giants is very slim. I would not trade any prospect for Johnson but instead I’d try to swap out major league parts in Lowry or Correia for him. Of course, this post is mainly an exercise in stupidity because trade scenarios never work out. Sabean still might be itchy to upgrade first but I’d hope he would only do so on these terms. In reality, the Giants are better just sticking with Ortmeier and sucking than trading for anything else. That’s the feeling that I’ve got about ‘08 and for the early future. I think most fans share that same feeling of doom and dread. It kinda sucks to know that no matter what your team does, it’s still going to be really terrible.

I started this post with hopes that I could make a Nick Johnson trade work and make sense for the Giants! But instead, I sorta got depressed. Thanks Giants!

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Update

Just as I submitted this post, I got an email from Will himself. He says that Johnson is definitely a “red risk” because he’s never really been all that healthy, in addition, his power would only be “mediocre” at the big phone and it would be best to platoon him. Can’t say I argue with either assessment. A platoon would obviously lessen the work load on Johnson as he attempts to come back from his injury.

The Giants have announced 15 players who got the invite for spring training. Non-roster invites are usually a mix of long-shot players who’ve either played in the minors forever or have had injuries that have delayed their careers and younger rookies hoping to break camp with the big club. Let’s take a look at the invites.

The Players

Pitchers

1. Bartolome Fortunato - The “other guy” in the Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano trade. Fortunato was a Devil Rays prospect before becoming part of the package heading to the Mets with Zambrano in the ill-fated trade for Scott Kazmir. He’s only pitched 29 innings in the majors but has compiled 338.1 innings in the minors. His career K/9 in the minor leagues is 10.28 which is a little intriguing.

Here’s what BA said about Fortunato all the way back in 2004 after the Kazmir trade.

Fortunato, 29, signed as an outfielder out of the Dominican in 1996. Though he has a 93-94 mph fastball and has served as the closer at Triple-A Durham this year, he wasn’t considered one of the Rays’ top prospects. Fortunato was 4-3, 2.42 with nine saves in 34 games, with a 51-21 K-BB ratio in 45 innings. International League hitters were batting just .175 with four homers against him. In 157 minor league games, he has a career record of 27-20, 3.57.

The low-90’s velocity seems to mesh well with his strikeout numbers in the minors. He was out of baseball for all of 2007 after Tommy John surgery and he’ll be 33 coming into the 2008 season. According to the Giants main website, he pitched 13.1 scoreless innings in the Dominican Winter League. He could make his way to San Francisco at some point in the 2008 season but I’d expect him to start the year in Fresno. The bullpen is just too crowded right now and I’d rank several people in front of him on the depth chart. He’s probably the most interesting reliever out of the NRI guys, though. If he regained some of the zip on his fastall he could be useful.

2. Victor Santos - Santos has the most experience out of the NRI group but that’s about all I can say. He’s pitched with Detroit, Colorado, Texas, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Cincinnati. He sports a career major league ERA of 5.21 in 602.1 innings pitched. If he somehow miraciously makes the team, he’ll probably never leave a mop-up role. He’s been entirely too hittable during his MLB time. Think a right-handed Wayne Franklin.

3. Keiichi Yabu - Japanese pitchers are supposed to be good, right? Yabu pitched 11 seasons in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers and did well enough before finally making his appearance state-side in 2005 with the Athletics. In ‘05, he pitched 58 innings of 4.50-ERA-ball. Yabu is another longshot, his Japanese peripherals aren’t very impressive and he didn’t really blow anyone away in ‘05. He’ll be 39 years old and looking for another chance to pitch in the majors. Mark this one doubtful.

Catchers

4. Steve Holm - The 27-year-old AA catcher played his entire 2007 in Connecticut for the Norwich Defenders. According to the Giants main page he earned Eastern League All-Star honors for his season in which he hit (.272/.387/.433). I love the high OBP and modest power in the Eastern League, which has been notoriously hard on hitters, but Holm has little chance of making the team as a backup with Eliezer and G-Rod in front of him. He’ll probably start the year in Fresno and stay there.

5. Pablo Sandoval - Is he a catcher or isn’t he? Sandoval, who’s still very young at 20-years-old, has already been moved around some defensively in his young career. In 2006 the Giants moved him off of catcher the third base in an attempt to “jump start his bat”. In 2007 he was back at catcher and split duties with Adam Witter. His final line in ‘07 in A+ ball is encouraging, especially the bump in power (.287/.312/.476) even if it was in the Cal League. He should be heading to AA in ‘08.

6. Jackson Williams - A draft choice from the 2007 draft, Williams has already earned a reputation for his defense behind the plate but the Oklahoma product has questions about how much he’ll hit. His catch and throw times are supposed to be insane and if he ever makes it to the majors, it’ll be on the strength of his defense.

Infielders

7. Manny Burris - Very speedy — stole 68 bases between A and A+ ball — but Burris still has some questions about how his bat will play. The jackrabbit shortstop performed terribly to start the year in A+ ball and was demoted to A-ball. Once he went back a level, he did much better, hitting for a high batting average and playing a sound defensive shortstop. Burris will hardly ever hit for power — he has 1 career minor league HR — but if he can keep making progress like he did once he moved back a level, he could have some major league value. He’s still 2-3 years away from the big leagues so don’t expect him in San Fran any time soon. His 2008 will play a huge role on how fast he heads towards the majors, if he struggles again it could be a bad sign but if he rebounds in A+ ball it should only help his prospect status.

8. Brian Bocock - He’s a little like Burris in the fact that he’s a strong defensive shortstop, maybe even a tad better than Burris with the glove. Baseball America seemed to think so when they rated him the best defensive infielder and best infield arm in the Giants farm system this year. Unfortunately, he shares Burris’s same weak bat, he hit enough in A-ball for a defensive specialist (.292/.354/.379) but bottomed out once he moved up the ladder to San Jose, where he hit (.220/.293/.328). He’s fast but nowhere near as fast as Burris. He’s also a good bit away from the majors and time will tell if he’ll ever hit enough to be useful. I saw him play at the Futures Game this year in San Fran and he’s every bit as slick with the glove as advertised, if he could just hit a little more.

9. Brett Harper - The lefty slugging first baseman is the son of former major leaguer and current Giants roving catcher instructor, Brian Harper. He was drafted in the 45th round in 2001 by the Mets and has since played parts of 7 seasons in the minors. It’s probably not good news that he’s never made it past AA but his 2007 season wasn’t too shabby. In ‘07 he hit (.296/.350/.500) as a 25-year-old in the Eastern League. He also hit 25 2B’s and 24 HR’s in ‘07. He missed most of 2006 with an injury but he could be a sleeper for first base with the Giants if he really impresses in Spring Training. It’ll be a long shot but 1B is a weak position for the Giants.

10. Justin Leone - Leone can mostly play 3B/OF but he logged a game or two at SS/2B/1B in 2007 with Fresno. Leone is a guy that I’ve been rooting for to make an appearance with the Giants after his ‘07 season in which he hit (.269/.383/.498). Sure, those stats might be a little pumped up by playing in the PCL but I like the OBP and power — he hit 30 2B’s 4 3B’s 20 HR’s and stole 26 bags–, even if it takes a dip in the majors. Leone will be 31 for the 2008 season and has to be considered a longshot for the 3B position. I don’t think the Giants thought much about Leone because they never even called him up last year. He would be a great utility man on a better team and he could be considered a sleeper candiate for 3B with the Giants depending on who gets signed between now and Spring Training.

11. Scott McClain - Boy, I’d love to see McClain get platooned at first base for the Giants. He’s got legitimate power but he’ll K a lot. The 18-year minor league veteran hit 31 HR’s last year for the Grizzlies and absolutely destroyed LHP to the tune of (.280/.397/.544). I think he would be a pretty good platoon option at first base for the Giants but I’m doubtful that they’ll take him very seriously. He got a brief cup of coffee in ‘07 but hardly earned any playing time. Give him a shot already!

12. Ivan Ochoa - More of the same, lots of glove, little bat. Ochoa’s minor league career of (.246/.330/.307) is going to make it really hard for any team to carry him, even the Giants. He’ll end up back in Fresno for most of the year and shouldn’t make it to the Giants.

Outfielders

13. Ben Copeland - He’s got doubles power and a good batting eye — he drew 70 walks against 77 K’s in A+ ball — but still has a long way to go. The Giants have more outfielders than you can shake a stick at so it’s doubtful that Copeland will be on the team any time soon. I’d rank several minor league outfielders ahead of him and he’ll have to continue to prove himself at each level to make it. In a perfect world, he’ll end up as a 4th OF that can play all three OF positions. LHP absolutely kill him — he hit (.156/.233/.189) against them in ‘07 –, he’ll have trouble reaching the majors until he can handle southpaws.

14. Brian Horwitz - Horwitz has always been able to make contact — career batting average of .326 over 4 minor league seasons — but that contact comes without much punch. Over those 4 seasons, he’s only hit 11 HR’s. He would probably make an awesome pinch-hitter but the Giants have bigger fish to fry. I’d love to see him get a chance someday but the odds are stacked against him.

15. Michael McBryde - Super atheltic, speedy, and a fine defensive centefielder, McBryde hasn’t matched on-field performance with his impressive tools. His speed is supposed to be outstanding, I’ve read that he’s even faster than Burris. He’s also got a strong throwing arm and I’ve heard that if he doesn’t hit, he could be headed to the mound someday as a last ditch effort to tap into some of his athletic talents.

There you have it, a pretty good selection of younger guys and older players still looking for their chance. If I had to guess who might make the team out of Spring Training out of the 15 players listed, I’d probably guess that maybe someone like Harper, Leone, or McClain might squeak their way onto the roster because of obvious positional needs that these players can fill.

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According to Rotoworld, Chris Shelton was DFA’d by the Rangers today in order to make space on their 40-man roster. You might remember Shelton from his 2006 in which he went crazy in April and slugged 10 HR’s in just 25 games for the Detroit Tigers. Shelton, as they say, peaked too early and struggled the rest of the year, never topping 4 HR’s in a month. He was tragically left off the Tigers playoff roster that year in favor of a broken-down Sean Casey. Such is life of the baseball player.

Shelton didn’t break camp in ‘07 with the team and was sent back to Toledo where he scuffled some, only hitting (.269/.381/.420). That line doesn’t look terrible but consider his minor league career line of (.311/.410/.500) and you can see that Shelton was a little bit off. I imagine that going from big league slugger back to riding the bus in Toledo must have been a hard blow to take. Shelton was obviously crushed about the demotion. He did not appear in a major league game in ‘07.

In December he was traded to the Rangers for Freddy Guzman. The Rangers didn’t keep him long, opting to DFA him today, which means that the Rangers have 10-days to either trade him to another team or release him.

Here’s why I would like to see the Giants make a play for Chris Shelton.

1. Perfect Platoonmate - Chris Shelton is the perfect platoonmate. He has always mashed RHP but struggles some against LHP. For his career, he’s hit (.286/.342/.498) when batting against righties. Thats terrific production. The sample size isn’t huge, it’s over 643 PA’s, or about 1-full season of baseball but it lets us know that when Shelton is hitting against RHP, he’s hitting them well. I think if you paired him with somone who hits LHP well, like oh say, McClain, the Giants might be able to get some solid production out of 1B since JT Snow’s bizzare 2004. He’s a RHH so Mays Field shouldn’t supress his power and he’s got a good bit of power.

2. Low Cost - To land Shelton, the Giants would probably send back a low-level prospect, probably even a scrub-prospect would do. With the Rangers DFA’ing Shelton before Spring Training, his value is at an all-time low. The Giants could probably pick him up for someone like Chad Santos, Clay Timpner, or Travis Ishikawa, just to throw some names out there. Or, if the Rangers want an arm, the Giants have several lower-level arms that they could move to Texas. Guys like Brooks McNiven, Matt Palmer, or Chris Begg might do.

3. What’s to Lose? - Taking a chance on Shelton is a low-cost potential high-upside reward. I know the point has been bludgeoned to death, but Carlos Pena was the same type of player, essentially free to have with modest upside. He turned out pretty well for the Rays. I’m not saying that Pena and Shelton are of the same caliber, Pena has done better, but that they have been similar situations. Does trading a C+ prospect to see what Shelton can do make sense? Yes. It makes a lot of sense, especially for the Giants who aren’t going to contend in ‘08. The team can take a few fliers like Shelton — and maybe a Morgan Ensberg — to see what they can find.

I would love to see a McClain/Shelton platoon at first base in 2008. The production has a chance to be good and if that doesn’t sell you enough, it should warm the cockles of your heart to see a career minor league journeyman get a real shot at the majors and a guy with a lot of talent who was left for dead. If you’ve read this blog for any amount of time, you know that I could care less about such things but even I would have to admit that it would be a little cool.