Bay City Ball

Tip of the cap to Giants beatwriter Andrew Baggarly for the news on Velez’s return. He’ll be replacing Brian Horwitz’s spot on the roster. Velez experienced a brief run of 121 AB’s earlier in the season before the Giants sent him packing to AAA Fresno in order to work some kinks out of his game. After a pretty good spring* Velez looked completely out of place at the major league level. He got picked off, made errors, never hit, and didn’t steal bags that well for a guy with blinding speed.

By any metric you slice it, Velez’s time with the Giants earlier in the year was bad. He was worse than any theoretical replacement level player that you could dredge up from the depths of any AAA roster. To Velez’s credit, when he returned to the minor leagues he didn’t entirely melt down. He hit a respectable-ish (.308/.371/.503) over 39 games and 159 AB’s.

Still, if you ever needed any confirmation that the PCL might be a hitters league, check out Velez’s slugging. The good news is that Velez’s BB% in AAA was higher than it was when he was in the majors — 9% to 4.8% — but he’s striking out a little more in AAA when compared to his time in the majors — 17% to 14.3%. Velez also has a gaudy BABIP of .358 in Fresno, which isn’t so gaudy when you notice that he’s hitting line drives at a rate of 24%.

If you use MLE’s from Velez’s half-season in Fresno and translate it to what his equivalent performance in the MLB would be, you get the following. Also, a note, I’m using Dan Szymborski’s excellent zMLE spreadsheet for my translations.

League    BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
AAA PCL  .308  .371   .503   .874
MLB      .283  .329   .428   .757

Keep in mind that this isn’t a prediction, just a translation of what Velez has done. But, if Velez could perform around the same level as his translation in his second trip with the Giants, it would be a huge upgrade from his origininal (.207/.244/.322) debacle.

What hurts Velez is his glove. He still lacks a true defensive position and the hopes that he might turn into a Chone Figgins may have been too high. What makes matters worse is that he’s been primarly playing LF in AAA Fresno — 23 LF, 18 2B, 1 RF — and the Giants won’t need him in the OF. When it comes down to it, Velez is most likely going to have to be a 2B to find a fit with the Giants, unless he’s purely a pinch-runner which seems to run opposite to what the Giants wanted Velez to get in Fresno, that being playing time. A mid-700 OPS left fielder isn’t good. And for those hoping that Velez will add some value with his legs, his 13 steals out of 21 attempts leaves a lot to be desired. That works out to a 62% steal rate.

The silver lining to bringing Velez back to San Francisco is that a potential trade is in the works. The Brewers have been rumored to have some interest in Ray Durham and Jack Taschner and the Giants might be preparing to make a move. Thus, they could need a warm body like Velez to stand at 2B for the rest of the season. But, I still think I’d rather give Denker a shot at playing 2B. Like Velez, he’s supposed to be weak defensively, but his bat might play a little at the MLB level.

After Velez’s first crash-and-burn with the Giants I posed the question of “Will he get another 250 AB’s in a Giants uni?”. I didn’t think so then and I still don’t think so now, but that’s a little less than half a season of AB’s and with Velez back in San Francisco, it’s possible. Stranger things have happened.

Comment Starter: Like the return of Velez? If not, who would you have called up?

We’ve looked at Augusta (A) San Jose (A+) and Connecticut (AA) so far in our farm review. The earlier levels are filled with prospects who could one day reach the Giants and make an impact. Does Fresno have the same kind of prospects? Not so much. Most AAA teams these days are filled with journeymen and other players who are hoping to make it back to the big leagues. Failed prospects, flameouts, guys who got injured, etc. Teams rarely keep their legitimate prospects in AAA for any extended period of time. In ‘07 the average age of a player in the PCL was 27-years-old. If you checked the top 10 hitters in the PCL this year — when ranking by OPS — you would find names like Dallas McPherson, Val Pascucci, Nelson Cruz, and Terry Tiffee. All of these players are in their mid-to-late 20’s and aren’t really considered prospects anymore.

So, don’t expect to find prospects that will anchor your team for the next decade but you might find some pieces that can fill gaps. Let’s check out what the Giants have going on in Fresno.

RF Nate Schierholtz - Nate is one of the most dividing Giants prospects. We can call him a prospect because despite playing in AAA, he’s only 24-years-old. Nate tends to divide people because of his plate approach. He gets good plate coverage and has the ability to make contact all over the zone but his lack of discipline could be a problem. In ‘07 he walked just 17 times in 441 PA’s in Fresno. That’s a BB% of 4.5%, which is quite low. He grabbed 117 major league PA’s with the Giants in ‘07 and he only walked twice. That’s a BB% of 1.7% which is really, really low. For example, Bengie Molina has a career BB% of 4.1% and he never walks. He’s physically strong but during game time, his power seems to border on a tick above average. He’s never hit more than 16 HR’s at any level. You usually want more firepower from your RF. During his time in the majors in ‘07 he hit for high average (.304) but not much else. He was essentially a singles hitter with a double or triple occasionally sprinkled in.

On the other hand, Nate has raised his BB% to 6.3% — a career high — this year in AAA. He’ll never walk 50 times in a season but if he could be more selective at the plate his power might play better. Most scouting reports have Schierholtz as a solid defender in RF with a strong throwing arm. Schierholtz is also a good runner for his size and will surprise you with the occasional triple. He’s done a good job of reducing his strikeouts at each level that he’s played. I think the best case scenario for Nate is a Garret Anderson player type. A hitter that walks at most around 30 times a year but makes good contact, hits 30 doubles, and 15-20 HR’s all while playing a solid RF. Even though I’ve got some questions about Nate I’d love to see him play RF if Randy Winn is traded. The Giants need to find out what Nate can do at the MLB level and if they can move Randy Winn at the deadline, I think they’ll find out.

1B Scott McClain - Yeah, he’s old. But he hits laser-rocket-bombs! Even if you don’t like Scott McClain, you’ve got to admire him just a little bit. He’s a 13-year career (mostly) minorleaguer. Over those 13 years he’s hit (.270/.355/.478) with 270 home runs. He even played four seasons for the Seibu Lions in Japan. In ‘07 he hit (.267/.349/.517) in Fresno with 31 home runs. This year he’s hit (.286/.362/.487) with 12 home runs. Because he’s 36-years-old he has no room left to grow, but man, was I on the McClain bandwagon last year. After watching Aurilia and Klesko struggle to produce from the 1B position, I was ready for some McClain. He did get called up but barely played and only got 11 AB’s. I’d love to see McClain get 500 AB’s in the majors to see what he could do. He might kill some German terrorists and that’s always awesome.

IF/OF Eugenio Velez - It’s everyone’s favorite speedster with bad defense and mental lapses, Eugenio Velez! The only thing more painful than watching the 2008 Giants was watching Eugenio get picked off, drop pop-ups, and perform a variety of other bonehead plays that would make Tom Emanski spin in his grave. He’s very fast but he looked overmatched at the major league level during his brief trail run earlier this year. The Giants mercifully sent him back to AAA and he’s done well. Since his demotion, Velez has hit (.312/.363/.488) in 125 AB’s. The first thing that jumps out at me about Velez’s slash-stats is that he’s slugging .488 in the PCL. If you ever needed proof that hitting in AAA isn’t the same as hitting in the majors, that might be it. He’s already 26-years-old and we might not ever see Velez in the majors for an extended period again. I think he’ll get a callup when rosters expand but barring an injury, I’m not expecting him to get major playing time with the Giants anytime soon. Godspeed Eugenio, godspeed. Those 121 AB’s you got with the Giants were thrilling.

SS Brian Bocock - Our sacrificial lamb. Bocock was called to the majors this year after barely hitting in the California League in ‘07. He struggled to hit in the majors, which was expected, but it was really ugly. He hit just (.143/.258/.156) in 73 AB’s with the Giants. You rarely see a guys batting average almost as high as his slugging percentage. Instead of sending Bocock back to San Jose, or even Connecticut, the Giants sent him to AAA Fresno. He’s failed to hit in AAA as well, hitting just (.163/.254/.187) in a line that’s eerily similar to what he did in the majors. His glove is still top-notch but he’s hitting like a deadball shortstop and that’s not so good in the year twenty aught eight.

Maybe Bocock should dress like this?

LHP Eugene Espineli - Careful with that axe, Eugene. Espineli has the coolest name on the Fresno roster, hands down. I have no idea what Espineli throws but he’s been having a decent year in AAA and at 25-years-old, he’s not ancient. He’s also a lefty and these guys always seem to be able to get work somewhere. He was drafted in the 14th round of the 2004 draft out of the Texas Christian University. This year in AAA he’s posting a K% of 21.8%, a BB% of 3.5%, and a modest GB% of 56%. He’s been tough on LHB’s who are OPS’ing just .396 against him. He could profile as a LOOGY-type reliever but with Taschner and Hinshaw, both lefties, already with the Giants, Eugene might stay in AAA for awhile. Still, not a bad backup option for some left-handed relief.

LHP Patrick Misch - I still like Misch even if he hit some speed bumps in the majors. He was super unlucky, giving up 10 HR’s in just 47 innings pitched. That’s a HR/F percentage of 23%. League average tends to be between 10-12%. In fact, most of Misch’s underlying peripherals were OK. Struck out 6.5 per game and walked 2.88 per game. Those aren’t bad stats at all from your 5th rotation spot and still better than what Zito has been giving us. He’s thrown just 34.1 innings in AAA since he went back down to the minors and he’s gotten knocked around a little, but I still like his arm. Either in a 5th starter role or a reliever.

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Fresno isn’t stocked with talent but they do have some players that you might see on the Giants at some point in this year. Hopefully we’ll see Nate in the 2nd half of the season after Randy Winn is shipped off to the Braves from a prospect or two (oh-please-oh-please-oh-please). I doubt we’ll ever see McClain in a Giants uniform at the big league level. Possibly when rosters expand.

Velez and Bocock? Meh. I’m not really banking on either at this point. Velez is getting old and still really doesn’t have a position to play. Bocock has a position to play but he’s hitting terribly. If I had to choose between the two, I’ll take Bocock for now. He’s younger and might eventually figure out how to scrap by as a defensive specialist with a .250 batting average.

Our two lefties of Misch and Geno could get into the bullpen at some point in this season if we trade away any of the following: Taschner, Chulk, or Walker.

Comment Starter: Have a favorite Grizzly?

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I’m adding a new weekly section to this site that I’ll randomly add to posts called “The Worst Bochy Quote of the Week” in which I’ll post the most absurd Bruce Bochy Quote I can find. This weeks’ WBQOTW is:

“He’s got power. He’s an intriguing player,” Bochy said. “He runs fairly well. I think he has the tools to be an everyday player. Now, that’s up to him. I think he’s improved his work ethic since he’s been here. I think he sees this as a great opportunity.”

Could Castillo be a long-term solution at third base?

“He has shown how talented he could be if he plays every day,” Bochy said. “I’d like to see what he’s done at the end of the year.”

My god. Bruce Bochy thinks Jose Castillo is “intriguing”.

We’re heading to Fresno!

Hot off the heels of a nail biting win over the Purple Ones, the Giants made a roster change involving the ever-speedy Eugenio Velez.

From the SFGiants.com

The Giants optioned Velez to Triple-A Fresno after Tuesday night’s 6-5 victory over the Colorado Rockies, and replaced him with infielder Travis Denker, who was recalled from Fresno.

“This was a move to get Eugenio playing again every day so he can continue his development and get his game back on track,” manager Bruce Bochy said.

The ‘Eugenio Velez Experiment’ started off quick before bursting into flames and disintegrating upon reentry into a fiery explosion of base running gaffes, iron glove work, mental errors, and paper thin offense. Velez was always “exciting” but the excitement he created never seemed to carry over into actual honest-to-goodness success. Velez’s defense was subpar, as advertised, but he also made mental mistakes resulting in defensive woes that would make Glenallen Hill cringe. It’s about what you would expect for a 25-year-old player, who until last year, had never been in AA or AAA. The Giants were going to push him aggressively and it was either sink-or-swim for Velez.

Velez also seemed to get picked off a ton in the majors, especially against LHP. First base coach Roberto Kelly has always preached aggressiveness on the basepaths but Velez’s inability to pickup a major league pickoff move was most likely the final nail in his coffin, for now. When you’ve got one tool — Speed in Eugenio’s case — you’ve got to use it well and he didn’t. He swiped 8 bags but was caught 5 times.

More seasoning should help Eugenio but it’s possible that his very small window is already on its way to shutting. He could very well end up as one of the many AAAA speedsters floating around the minor leagues, hoping to resurface with a team that desperately needs a speedy speedster. The Chone Figgins comparisons seem but a distant memory now.

Travis Denker, the other guy in this move, is a 2B/3B without a tremendous glove. His defense is supposed to be anywhere from average to below and the Giants might use him to spell Ray Durham and Castillo at their respective positions of second and third. I’ve heard talk that during his time in the Dodgers system — Denker was acquired last year in the Sweeney to LA trade — that Denker could eventually find himself in LF at the next level, but to my knowledge has never played a professional game in the outfield. Because his speed is average to below, LF is his ceiling as an OF. As we all know, the Giants have a glut of outfielders, so, Denker seems to be destined for infield duties.

Denker is a lot like Velez in some respects. He has spent the most of his career in the lower minors, never reaching AA or AAA until this year. His glove is also weak, much like Velez’s glove. But unlike Velez he has plate discipline and some pop. His career minor league numbers are (.276/.376/.453) which you’d love to get from your 2B. He has 291 career walks to 353 career strikeouts. He was struggling this year in AA Connecticut hitting (.184/.308/.263) in 76 AB’s. The Giants sent him to Fresno and over 54 AB’s he hit better at (.315/.422/.500).

The Giants will hope that Denker will give them something more than what Velez gave them. I’m skeptical of either contributing much but this is the year to find out these sort of things. I’d probably take Denker for now because of his bat. Both are weak defensively. Velez runs better but Denker gets on base and hits better and is younger.

Comment Starter: True or False, Eugenio Velez will collect 250 more AB’s in his career in a Giants uniform?