Bay City Ball

I got a chance to listen to the weekly Ralph and Tom interview with Brian Sabean on KNBR this morning. Some notes and reactions after listening.

~ The topic to start the interview was, of course, Barry Zito. Sabes basically backed up Zito saying that he’s trying hard and wants to get better. Ralph tried to draw a response out of Sabean on who’s idea it really was to sign Zito but the sneaky-sneaky Sabes would not divulge any information.

He did say a couple of things that I thought were interesting — or amusing — depending on your viewpoint. First, that the Giants reports on Zito before the signing were “extremely positive” which makes me wonder what kind of reports they were getting or what kind of tools — ERA, Wins, Gamerness? — they used to analyze Zito. Second, that at least one AL club was going to offer Zito more money — Seattle?.

Before my next point, I’ll add that interviews like these are filled with half-truths and carefully crafted wording. I take most of what’s said with a big ‘ole grain of salt and you should, too. It’s an interesting insight into Sabes’ cranium at a very basic level.

~ Sabes briefly touched on the T. Beckham signing and if it would influence Posey’s demands much. Sabes says no, because every player will sell themselves differently in the negotiation process. And that Posey had some positives going for him that could add to his dollar-value such as being the Collegiate Player of the Year and a top catcher, each would boost his value. He dismissed the $12M signing rumor that was floated around pre-draft and that “guys either want to sign and play, or they don’t”.

~ Some rumors have been going around recently that the Giants have a deal in place with Rafael Rodriguez from the D.R. for $2.5M. He’s been compared to Vladimir Guerro but you should take that with a big grain of salt as well. Sabes debunked the rumor saying that they haven’t inked Rodriguez but he thinks that they are “in the running”. Of course, he noted that International signings can’t happen until after July 1st. If the Giants have a pre-deadline deal in place with Rodriguez, Sabean couldn’t say. The “in the running comment” was a positive indication that the Giants are involved with Rodriguez.

~ Pablo Sandoval is “very playable at first base” and is still learning the catcher position. I was surprised to hear Sabean say he’ll be moving to AA shortly after hearing that the Giants could skip Pablo straight past AA Connecticut. Sabes also said that he thinks we’ll see Sandoval up at the MLB level before the end of the year. Maybe when rosters expand? Will Molina be shopped?

~ And finally that Burriss will see more playing time. Omar will have to understand that with the direction of the team and with Burriss holding his own so far, he’ll have to play less because of his struggles at the plate. He’s “swinging soft” according to Sabes. Brian did praise Omar as a great defender and a future HoF’er but that he’d have to understand that he might start playing less because of his bat troubles. That was nice to hear.

That was it for the Sabean interview, pretty standard stuff.

Other News and Notes

~ The Giants have signed 7th round draft pick LHP Aaron King. King signed for $110,000 and will report to the Arizona League in a week. King was a guy that I liked and I’m happy to see the Giants get him signed. He’s a lefty that can work in the low-90’s and was considered one of the best lefties in the Jr. College ranks.

~ 5th rounder Edwin Quirarte made his first pro appearance on Wednesday in a S-K Volcanoes game. He failed to record an out, walked 3 hitters and gave up 2 earned runs. Sounds like a Giants pitcher already!

~ Teams could have some interest in Randy Winn at the trading deadline. Henry Schulman has heard that some scouts believe that Winn will be a hot name around the trading deadline. The Braves are reportedly interested in Winn. Winn is hitting (.297/.360/.444) and is making $8M this year and $8.25M next. He does have a limited no-trade clause to 8 teams but he might waive it for a contender. A Winn trade would be great for the Giants because it could bring in a prospect and open a space for Nate Schierholtz all in one move.

~ Giants blog, OBnB, has a good interview with Brian Foley of The College Baseball Blog on the Giants’ 2008 First Year Players Draft. Lots of solid questions and responses in the interview. Head on over and check it out now if you haven’t already.

Earlier this week I posted that Wendell Fairely was going to make his debut in the AZL later this month. It turns out I was wrong and that Fairely is going to turn up in the Northwest League with the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes. An article detailing the S-K roster popped up today and Fairely is on the list. It’s anyones guess when he actually gets into a game or how healthy he is, but it’s a good sign that he’s on the roster.

The Volcanoes start their season tonight against the Yakima Bears.

Prospects that I’ve be following in S-K are: Wilber Bucardo (supposedly throws a wicked sinker, excelled in the AZL), Edwin Quirarte (5th overall draft pick from this years draft), Wendell Fairely (whenever he plays!), Kelvin Marte (struck out 91 in 61 innings in the DSL), and Michael Ambort (intriguing catching prospect, has had health problems).

Go Volcanoes!

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Edit: It looks like Fairely might still be with the AZL Giants. After re-reading the S-K article, it only says that Wendell was “expected” to join the Volcanoes. I take it he’s still with the AZL Giants and waiting for their season to start. This is like a bad episode of Where in the World is Carmen San Diego. Hopefully we can track down Wendell soon. He’s actually listed on both the Volcanoes and AZL Giants rosters on MILB.com.

Good morning, I hope everyones day has started well. Pass me the coffee and I’ll be OK.

A few things in Giants news today

~ Keichii Yabu has been promoted to setup man. I wasn’t aware of this until I caught Schulman’s Notebook column on the Chronicle. The article talks about Pat Misch going back to AAA and this quote from Bochy popped out at me.

Bochy acknowledged he has no true long reliever now that Keiichi Yabu has been promoted to setup man, and said, “We’re going to have to get some multiple innings out of guys like Vinnie Chulk, Billy Sadler, Alex Hinshaw and Jack Taschner.”

Interesting, the 39-year-old Yabu has been a pleasant surprise this year. I would prefer to see someone like Sadler or Hinshaw work the 8th inning and get that late inning experience, but Yabu has earned his new role for now. By BP’s WXRL, relievers expected wins added, Yabu is 4th on the team behind Brian Wilson, Tyler Walker, and Jack Taschner.

~ The Giants have signed their 5th round pick RHP Edwin Quirarte for 193K. Quirate throws a low-90’s fastball, a slider, and a split-finger fastball. He profiles as a reliever.

~ So much for home comfort, the Giants have the worst winning percentage at home in the majors. Their current winning percentage of .371% at home is worse than both the Mariners (.388%) and the Nationals (.400%) home percentages. On the road the Giants are a game under .500.

~ I was looking at the Giants team SB% this morning — it sits at 71% currently — and I started to wonder, was the success rate of 71% good enough? If you believed the advertising campaign, the stolen base was going to play a large role in the Giants team success this year. Tom Tango of ‘The Book’ fame, has a quick and easy formula to calculate the break even rate for stolen bases in a given environment. In other words, at what point does stealing a base hurt or help your team?

The formula looks like this:

A very quick rule of thumb on the breakeven point is to do this:
1. take runs per game and divide by 2 (so, a 5.0 RPG gives you 2.5. That’s close to the breakeven of SB, 2.5, to CS, 1).
2. Figure the percentage (2.5/3.5 = 71.4%)
3. Subtract 3%
4. Breakeven is: 68.4%

In The Book, I said the breakeven point for 1999-2002 (5.0 RPG) was 68.7%.

So, a 4.0 RPG environment would give you: 2.0, which is .667, which becomes .637. This is why it really pays to play small ball against a great pitcher.

The current RPG in the NL is 4.55, so our formula should look like this.

4.55/2 = 2.275
2.275/3.275 = 69%
Subtract 3%
Breakeven is: 66%

So, in the current run scoring environment of the National League our breakeven point stands at 66%, meaning that if you’re going to steal a base make sure that you’re successful at least 66%+ of the time. By this formula, the Giants are doing a good enough job of stealing bases this year. Keep in mind that the current RPG of 4.55 will most likely change by the time the season is done and as a result, so will our breakeven point. From ‘01 to ‘07, the average RPG has been 4.61.

It goes to show that in a low scoring environment, such as facing a great pitcher as Tango stated above, the breakeven point for stealing a base is lowered, making it a more attractive option than swinging the bat — and most likely making an out. The lower the scoring environment becomes the lower the value of each out. Take for example the Chicago Cubs. Cubs’ pitchers have given up 3.99 RPG this year. Following the formula above, the breakeven point works out to 63%. The Giants would do well to try and steal bases when they play the Cubs, that is if the Cubs pitching stays at its current level of 3.99 RPG. But, for every Cubs there is an equally bad team when it comes to pitching, such as the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates hurlers have been giving up 5.23 RPG this season, making the breakeven point 69%. When the Giants play a poor offensive team such as the Pirates, they should just swing the bats.

Something to think about and watch for the next time the Giants try to steal bases against poor pitching teams like the Pirates or Colorado.

That was the first thought that ran through my head as Bud Selig read aloud the Giants 5th overall pick in this years draft.

“With the 5th pick in the First-Years Player Draft of 2008, the San Francisco Giants select Gerald Posey, catcher, from Florida State University”

Second thought, I guess the Giants aren’t scared off by his rumored $12M pre-draft demands. Posey and the Giants both know that he won’t sniff 12 large ones, but it was enough to drop Gerald, err Buster, a few slots down to the Giants at the #5 pick. I expect he’ll sign because Posey has no incentive to head back to college over a few million dollars. If he heads back to college and gets injured or declines or has a bad year, his payday will be gone. In the 2007 draft Matt Weiters, another catcher, was drafted 5th overall and signed for $6M. Posey might get anywhere between $6-9M but I’ll be really surprised if he hits double-digits.

The Giants will have until August 15th to get a deal done with Posey or they’ll retain the same pick for next years draft. If Posey signs quickly, he’ll probably report to short-season Salem-Keizer.

Third thought, I really like what the Giants did in this draft.

John Shea from the Chronicle runs down some points on Posey:

Posey, whose college team (Florida State) would earn a berth to the College World Series by beating Wichita State in a best-of-three series this weekend, leads Division I hitters in batting average (.468), RBIs (86), slugging percentage (.897) and on-base percentage (.572).

Right now, Posey projects as an above average catch both offensively and defensively. He doesn’t have the same power projection that the big slugging first basemen had in this draft — Smoask, Hosmer, Alonso — but he should hit .280 or better, draw walks, and pop 15-20 HR’s a year. For a catcher, that’s an All-Star. He’s super athletic — you’ve heard of the game where he played all 9 positions — and even though he’s fairly new to the catcher position — he came to college as a short stop — he’s taken well to the switch. Posey has a plus-arm behind the plate. He has hit 94mph on the mound and also has good accuracy behind the dish. Because Posey is already very polished and super athletic, he’s got a chance to move fast and be in a Giants uniform by 2010.

Brian Sabean hinted that with Molina’s contract running out after next year, Posey could be on the “fast track”:

“(Posey) is on the fast track and Bengie’s clock is winding down,” Sabean said. “It’s really up to him how soon he wants to get going and how soon he can get here.”

Thanks for the effort, Bengie, now see ya later! With Sandoval having a breakout year and Posey — hopefully — now entering the system, the Giants could have two potential solid catchers in the wings. With Sabean’s comments about Molina “winding down” I wonder if they might entertain a trade offer or two for him at the trading deadline this year or over the offseason? Sandoval will most likely end up this year in AAA and might even see sometime with the big club this September. And if Sandoval isn’t ready by next year, the Giants could bring in a 1-year stopgap if they decide to move Molina.

After Posey, the Giants drafted the following players.

Name                Pick#   Position     College/HS     BA-Rank
Conor Gillapsie       37       3B        Wichita St       23
Roger Kieschnick      82       OF        Texas Tech       44
Brandon Crawford     117       SS           UCLA          134
Edwin Quirarte       147       RHP      Cal St. North.    NA
Eric Surkamp         177       LHP      N.Carolina St.    NA

I said earlier that I liked what the Giants did in this draft and the picks of Gillaspie, Roger K., and Brandon Crawford are a big reason why. The Giants got some really nice value late with these picks.

Gillapsie might not have the prototypical power for third base, but he can hit. He’s a pure hitter that makes solid contact and controls the strike zone. You’ll hear him compared to Bill Mueller a lot because he should hit for average and get on base. He might not hit a lot of home runs, but he should hit a ton of doubles and get his fair share of triples. He’s projected to stick at third base defensively, with soft hands and a good throwing arm. Gillapsie is very polished as a college hitter and could move fast. Great pick by the Giants.

Roger Kieschnick is another pick that I like. He’s got above-average power to all fields and could profile as a 5-tool player. His arm should be strong enough to keep him in RF and despite some concerns about his hitting mechanics and aggressiveness, he’s improved every year in college as a player.

From RedRaiders.com:

If Kieschnick signs, he will leave behind a great legacy at Tech as one of its most prolific hitters. He currently ranks in the top five in school history in at bats (689), hits (222), doubles (54), home runs (39) and RBIs (156), and the 168 games played ranks sixth all time.

He finished his junior year by improving in every major statistical category from his sophomore year. The 2006 Big 12 Conference Freshman of the Year who hit a grand slam in his first career game and the 2008 season finale May 16 against Baylor, Kieschnick in 2008 hit .305 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs. The home run and RBI totals led the Big 12 during the regular season.

Kieschnick was considered to be the top position player coming out of Texas this year.

Crawford is a guy that could prove to be a nice pickup late in the draft. From the MLB.com draft report.

After his first two seasons at UCLA, Crawford seemed poised to be one of the top collegiate middle infielders in the class. But a rough Cape season appears to have carried over and he’s lost some confidence in his game, both at the plate and in the field. Some added thickness to his lower half has taken away a little of his quickness, though he’s still a solid shortstop. If he can right himself, he’s the kind of player who usually sees himself go off the board within the first couple of rounds.

A nice pick to see if Crawford can regain some of the promise that he showed in his first two seasons at UCLA. Bryan Smith from the BP Roundtable has a great take on the Crawford pick.

Bryan Smith (4:39:42 PM PT): The Giants pop Brandon Crawford here in the fourth, and I think it’s a fabulous selection. Crawford is incredibly raw for someone his age, but he has some really nice tools. After going for sure bets in Buster Posey and Conor Gillaspie, Crawford is the perfect type of complement. Throw in Roger Kieschnick, who was once considered a first round right fielder, and it’s possible — not likely, but possible — the Giants just filled half their future.

Smith is right on the money, it’s a great complement pick to the more polished guys.

I don’t know much and can’t find much on the two pitchers that the Giants took. You can watch a video of Edwin Quirarte on the MLB.com draft page for the Giants. And you can find his 06-07 stats on the Baseball Cube. His stats from these years don’t look like anything special, ERA’s of 4.50 and 6.57, but in his video he touches 91mph a few times and looks to be throwing a slider in low-80’s. He’ll probably work best as a reliever. Surkamp’s stats look a little better but I have no idea what he throws.

From Scout.com on Surkamp:

Surkamp, a junior from Cincinnati, Ohio, went 5-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Surkamp went through an up-and-down 2008 season, but is finishing on an up note, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.91 ERA in his last four starts. A second-team All-ACC pick as a sophomore in 2007, Surkamp has worked 73 2/3 innings in 15 starts, allowing 74 hits, walking 38 an d striking out 86.

Overall, I really like what the Giants did in this draft, selecting 4 college position players with their first four picks. Posey and Gillapsie could both move fast and Kieschnick and Crawford might move a little slower, but both offer some nice upside. Some fans might be upset that the Giants picked Posey over someone like Justin Smoak but the Giants took the best position player available. Only Pedro Alvarez was ranked higher on the Giants list of draft candidates. But don’t get me wrong, I would have loved the power potential of Justin Smoak but Posey is a fine pick at #5. I do think Smoak was an absolute steal at #11 for the Rangers, he’s going to hit a ton of home runs for the Rangers.

Let’s get these guys signed. Day Two of the draft finishes up today, you can follow the results on MLB.com.

Comment Starter: Happy with the draft? Or irked by passing up a power bat?