I’m in love with the new Baseball-Reference WAR data. WAR, or Wins Above Replacement, is the uber-stat that attempts to encompass the total value of what makes a player, erm, valuable. With the development of FanGraphs and other saber-slanted websites, WAR has become a pretty well known statistic. If you’re new to the game, check out the glossary section of the site for a definition.

One of the components of WAR is fielding. Now that BB-Ref is providing WAR data, I’ve been having a good time running various queries. Best WAR seasons, best baserunning seasons, best fielding seasons — and today’s post, the worst fielding seasons in Giants’ history. A few words before we jump in and have fun. Baseball-Reference’s fielding component for WAR comes in the form of Total Zone. It’s expressed in runs above (or below) average. Also, when considering defense at a position we must realize that a -10 run first baseman isn’t the same as a -10 run shortstop. The shortstop is a much more athletic group when compared to your average group of first basemen. So, we can assume that if we moved a SS to 1B he would be very good, if we moved a 1B to SS, he wouldn’t do so hot.

Now, let’s check out the 10 worst fielding seasons — as measured by the Total Zone component of BB-Ref WAR — in Giants’ history.

A graph plus the data table. Click the graph to enlarge. It looks much better at full resolution.

A good mix of Giants past and present. A few words on some of the names on our list.

• #1 on our list is Bobby Murcer’s 1975 season which clocks in at -22 runs below average just on defense. Bobby Murcer is known for a few things in his baseball career. First and foremost, from a Giants’ perspective, is that he’s the player the Giants traded for when Bobby Bonds was sent to New York in the offseason of 1974. Bonds went on to have maybe his finest season that year when he hit .270/.375/.512 (151 OPS+). For the Giants Murcer had a fine year on offense batting .298/.396/.432 (127 OPS+) but, as our graph and data table show, his defensive numbers in the outfield were terrible. Oddly enough, Murcer — a gold glove winner in 1972 — scores poorly by Total Zone throughout his career. He owns a career mark of -97 runs below average in the outfield. It’s almost as if the Gold Glove Award doesn’t do a good job of assessing good defense. Hmmm.
• Ron Hunt was never considered a strong fielder and his 1970 season and the -20 runs (nearly negative 2 wins) he accumulated on defense was a career worst. Hunt, a career 2B, played primarily 2B in ’70 but he also saw some time at 3B. Hunt — the master of getting hit by pitches– has maybe one of my favorite baseball quotes of all time, “Some people give their bodies to science; I give mine to baseball,” And to back that statement up he ended his career with an astounding 243 HBPs. To this day, he owns the record for most HBP in a single season with 50(!) in ’71 with the Expos. The HBP magnet only played 3 seasons with the Giants from 1968-70.
• Maybe my favorite player on the list, Dick ‘The Mule’ Dietz, shows up for his 1970 season and the -20 runs on defense that accompanied it. Dietz’s season is really a tale of two different skill-sets. On offense Dietz was incredible — batting .300/.426/.515 (152 OPS+). It’s probably the best offensive year ever for a Giants’ catcher. However, on defense, Dietz was another story. His -20 runs is damaging, but also consider some of the traditional stats that, I think, tell a story. Dietz made 14 errors, 25 passed balls, and caught only 19% of base-stealers. Dietz gave up 92 stolen bases that year while only throwing out 21 runners. Even more amazing is he was still worth +4.5 wins that year — even docking him nearly 2 wins by defense — he was an All-Star and still remains one of my favorite Giants of all-time. You have to wonder if Dietz would have been moved over to first base if he hadn’t played with McCovey.
• Hey look, a Marvin Benard sighting. His -19 runs below average on defense in ’99 is our most recent Giant to make the Butcher List. I have to admit, I’ve got a soft spot for Benard. He was generally acceptable on defense — a carer +2 runs by TZ — and he had a couple of average to above-average years (’98, ’99, and ’01) on offense. He was most likely stretched as a CF and the Giants didn’t help themselves by primarily playing him there. He would have most likely done much better in a corner spot.
• You’ve got to feel for Johnnie LeMaster. He was futile on offense — career OPS+ of 60 — and his defensive numbers don’t stack up. Since he was a SS, we should note that he was playing in a more athletic peer group than the OF/1B group, but LeMaster scored poorly across the board over his career on defense. In fact, by BB-Ref’s WAR, he’s -7 wins below replacement level for his career. His -15 run defensive season in ’82 was paired with an OPS+ of 51. And yet he still appeared in 130 games and collected 436 at-bats.

An interesting list. Dick Dietz’s season in 1970 in particular is notorious for it’s defensive problems. Total Zone is really handy when we’re trying to examine historical players that fall past the scope of current defensive metrics like UZR.

Comment Starter: Anyone on the list surprise you? Anyone you think should be added to our Top 10?

They often say that the biggest transition for a prospect is between A and AA baseball. I’m not sure if that’s true or not, but it often seems that way. By all accounts Crawford’s glove was still terrific — BA ranked him the best defensive infielder in the system, here — but you’ve got show at least something offensively to carve out a starting role in the majors. Stat-watchers should have expected Crawford to have a rough transition from San Jose to Connecticut. Why? Crawford’s BABIP in San Jose was a staggering .493. We know that hitters can have a larger affect on their BABIP than their pitching counterparts, but a near .500 BABIP is an outlier. Crawford was hitting for a ton of power in San Jose (ISO .229) but he was striking out in nearly 1/3rd of his at-bats (K% 30.48%). When he got to AA, he walked even less (dropping from 8% to 4%) and his BABIP dropped to a more reasonable .334.

It was a rough stretch in AA for Crawford. The Giants left him in AA to start the 2010 season and so far the early returns have been great. Some numbers:

Year	Tm	        Lev	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
2009	2 Teams	        AA-A+	542	5.54%	26.56%	0.132	.364
2009	San Jose	A+	119	8.40%	30.48%	0.229	.493
2009	Connecticut	AA	423	4.73%	25.51%	0.107	.334
2010	Richmond	AA	166	16.29%	24.44%	0.148	.294

Data pulled from 5.23.10

I’ve listed 4 pretty important statistics for hitters above. How much they walk (BB%), strikeout (K%), how much power they hit for (ISO), and their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The most impressive development about Crawford’s second crack at AA baseball has been his BB% — it currently stands at 16.29%. After posting a 4.73% in AA last year, Crawford has nearly quadrupled his walk rate this year. He’s still striking out at the same rate, but strikeouts are less egregious if you can supplement them with other skills — namely getting on base via the walk and hitting for power. Overall, the Eastern League is a pretty tough place for hitters. For example, the league average hitter in the EL right now is hitting .251/.328/.378 (OPS .706). That includes slugging first basemen, outfielders, and other offense first positions. Comparatively, Crawford is hitting .252/.364/.400 (OPS .764). And that’s as a SS with above-average defense. Crawford’s ISO isn’t in the .200+ range that it was in San Jose, but at the current .148 he’s showing moderate power.

The biggest caveat is that it’s still early in the year — just 166 plate appearances to this point — but if Crawford’s change at the plate is for real, his ceiling adjusts a little from bench glove to potential starter.

If we call Crawford a .310 wOBA batter in the majors — think Orlando Caberera’s 2009 season or about any .700 OPS batter in the majors — we could value Crawford as follows:

Batting Wins Above Average (.310 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –1.28 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: +0.5 wins
SS Positional Adjustment: +.75 wins
Replacement Level: +2.25 wins
-——————————————————————-
= 2.22 wins above replacement * .8 (or 80% playing time ie: 560 PA’s) = +1.78 wins

Under our assumptions above he projects as a 1.78 win player for the Giants in 80% playing time. I’m calling him a +5 run defender at SS, which is very good when you consider he plays in the most athletic player group in baseball. Also, keep in mind that this WAR valuation is without any baserunning component. Crawford should be mobile enough to chip in a couple of runs with is legs each year.

Depending on how Crawford finishes out this year — and if his new plate approach is for real — the Giants should have a couple of decisions on their mind. Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe are both free agents after this season and Crawford is the only prospect in the minors that you could consider for the opening at SS. From the looks of it, the best available ’11 SS FA will be J.J. Hardy. The Giants might want to consider signing a SS that can play half the year at the position before turning it over to Crawford. Again, it’s still very early in the year, but Crawford’s progress is quite encouraging. He’s probably the #5 prospect in the Giants system right now.

I would break down the Top-5 as follows:

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zach Wheeler
4. Thomas Neal
5. Brandon Crawford

With Brandon Belt around #6-8.

Comment Starter: What do you make of Crawford’s season so far? Is it too aggressive to pencil him into the 2011 Giants team?

Sabermetricians have always been on the search for the best way to measure wins contributed by players. Baseball Prospectus has WARP, Bill James has win shares and now we are presenting Sean Smith’s Wins Above Replacement or WAR data on the site.

Yup. You’re reading that right. Baseball-Reference is now providing WAR data. I’d advise you to click the above link to read through their methodology for calculating WAR — it’s slightly different than the FanGraph’s flavor. My favorite part is that this data, used in conjunction with the Play Index Tool, has a ton of uses and it’s search-ability is beyond amazing.

Take, for example, if I wanted to know the Top-10 defensive seasons in Giants history (1901-2010). Just a quick run through the PI Tool and bang, I get this.

Or, if I wanted to go a little more obscure, I can search the Top-10 best fielding seasons (again from 1901-2010, min. 75% of games started at 3B) for a Giants third baseman.

Hmm, can’t say that I’m shocked to see Pedro Feliz topping this one. He had some truly excellent years for the Giants on defense. I’m not sure I’ve seen another 3B make the play to his right while making a strong throw across the diamond look so easy. His ability to charge the bunt was excellent, as well. I love running searches like this. Heinie Zimmerman? Can’t say I’ve ever heard of him, but he totaled 33.8 career wins above replacement. Not bad. His +11 runs in 1917 was by far a career year for him on defense. He appears to have been an average-to-below average fielder for most of his career outside of that season.

Overall, it’s a great addition to the already beefy database of Baseball-Reference. I can’t wait to play around with the data some more.

A: Andres Torres

—

Torres was a weird bird for the 2009 Giants. He was a 31-year-old minor league journeyman with a scant 285 career plate appearances in the majors before the season started. Originally drafted by the Tigers in the 4th round of the 1998 First Year Player Draft, Torres had logged over 469 games in the minors since 2004. He caught the Giants’ eye after his 2008 season with the Cubs — being Torres, this was the Iowa version of the Cubbies — in which he hit: .306/.391/.501

Before the season started, the Giants ended up signing Torres to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. Putting myself in Torres speedy shoes, I imagine he was prepared to start his year in Fresno. However, things turned out differently. Torres impressed the Giants while in camp and opened the season with the team in San Francisco. It was the first time since 2005 that Torres had been on a major league roster. I was slightly pessimistic about Torres’ odds, but across the board he had a fine season, which when tabulated by WAR, added up to +2 wins.

The biggest surprise with Torres was his hitting. Torres was never a masher in the minor leagues, but he showed up to the Giants and made hard contact all year long. In 170 PA’s, Torres hit 6 home runs, 8 triples, and 6 doubles. That’s an ISO of .262. But it wasn’t just his hitting that made Torres stand out, his fielding was exceptional. By UZR, in an admittedly too-tiny-sample to take seriously, he was +7.8 runs above the average CF in just 351 innings fielded. Pro-rated to 150 games in CF, that’s a +30 run season. That’s probably not going to happen, but with Torres’ footspeed, he should be able to play CF around +5 runs over a full season, making him a very good defender.

This Spring Training, Torres must feel like he’s repeating history. He’s back in camp and again fighting for a job. The Giants have 2 open OF positions to split among Fred Lewis, John Bowker, Eugenio Velez and Andres Torres. Because of Torres’ ability to handle CF adeptly, he should have somewhat of an inside track to make the team. Out of the Lewis, Velez, and Bowker group, none of them can really play CF — even though the Giants have stuck Velez there from time-to-time. I don’t think anyone should expect Torres to repeat his .379 wOBA from last year. His BABIP (.347) and success on flyballs should make us skeptical of his chances in 2010. The BABIP of .347 is high, but it’s not totally outrageous, the one thing that Torres shouldn’t be able to repeat was his success when hitting the ball in the air. When talking about batted balls, flyballs are turned into outs more often than groundballs, but they do more damage when they land for hits (or go over the fence). It’s hard to hit a groundball out of the park. Thanks to the handy Baseball-Reference, we can see just how fortunate Torres was in ’09 when he hit the baseball in the air. The average NL batter hit .224/.218/.595 on flyballs. Torres hit .378/.378/1.111 on flyballs. Or, by using sOPS+ — the split based version of OPS+, compares the current batter by split to the league average by split — of  259. That means that Torres hit 159% better than your league average hitter when it came to flyballs.

That’s unreal.

And, very likely unsustainable. Looking ahead, It’s hard to try and project Torres. His footspeed and range make me think his defense is for real, but trying to get a handle on his hitting is tough. His development as a player is all over the place. After struggling in the minors he put together a few nice seasons later in his career — namely his 2007 split between AA/AAA with the Tigers and his 2008 with the Iowa Cubs. Of course, age-to-level caveats apply, but it’s not impossible that Torres learned something in the minors that helped him on offense. CHONE has Torres projected as a .319 wOBA hitter for 2010 which is quite the drop off. You might think that if Torres is a .319 wOBA batter, then he’s not very valuable. Not true. Torres would be a below average hitter, but his defense is a plus in CF and his baserunning should chip in a few runs as well.

Unless Rowand is hurt by slamming into a wall, the Giants won’t need Torres to be a starter. His defense and baserunning make him a nice candidate as a 4th OF. And he’s the only player on the roster that can honestly handle CF in an above average fashion. Those reasons should make him the go-to guy to start the season with the team in the majors. Torres has taken a long path to the majors, but if he can stay healthy and defend in CF, he should be able to find some work at the major league level as long as his legs are healthy.

How has it happened? We don’t hit HR’s. We don’t walk. We’re as hacky as a team can get.

The answer lies in run prevention. Or, to put it another way, the Giants have been very good about not giving up runs to their opponents. As a team, the Giants have only given up 425 runs on the season. That’s the best in the majors. On offense, they’ve only scored 455 runs. That’s 2nd worst in the majors behind the Padres. If you want to park adjust things, the Giants should be the worst team in the majors at scoring runs. And while the Giants have played over their heads some — our Pythagorean record pegs us closer to a 60 win team than a 62 win team — the power of run prevention has made the Giants a poster team for why these things matter. And can matter a lot.

Let’s move on towards the graph. I’ve plotted each team in baseball by their UZR and FIP. This should let us see which teams are the best at run prevention (those who pitch well, and play good defense) and those who are the worst at run prevention (those who pitch and play defense poorly) and the teams that are in-between.

The bold lines indicate league averages. For UZR, this would be ’0′ runs. For team FIP, it worked out around 4.34 runs. Remember that the league average FIP will be higher in the AL because of the DH and slightly lower in the NL.

(Update: I’ve added a new version with team icons for each data marker)

Reading the Graph:

Upper-right Quadrant = Teams with above average defense and pitching. This is the most desirable quadrant to be in.
Upper-left Quadrant = Teams with above average defense, but below average pitching.
Lower-right Quadrant = Teams with below average defense, but above average pitching.
Lower-left Quadrant = Teams with below average defense and pitching. This is the least desirable quadrant to be in.

I’ve marked a few of the teams in each quadrant so that you can get a feel for how certain teams were placed.

Amazingly this season the Giants have posted the best defense of any team in baseball. That’s quite a boost from their ranking last year. In 2008, the Giants ranked as the 9th best defensive team in baseball. That’s above average, but they’ve climbed to the very top this year. Not only has the defense been great, our pitching has been very good, too. Only the Braves have posted a better team FIP (3.63 to our 3.73) this season. Defensively, the Giants have been on par with an excellent M’s squad. The Giants OF defense has been superb this year. Aaron Rowand has had a bounce-back season. Randy Winn, despite his struggles at the plate, is still a top OF defender in all of baseball. And the rest of the OF has been played by plus-defenders like Fred Lewis, Nate Schierholtz, and Andres Torres. OF defense is a major, major strength for our current team. This is why any attempt to play Ryan Garko in LF is a foolish idea.

Looking at other teams, the Braves have posted the best FIP in baseball but their defense has played below average. The Cubs are right in the middle as an average team when it comes to defense and pitching. The poor Royals rank as the worst defensive team in baseball by UZR. Their team FIP is better than the league average. The Royals would see some nice gains if they could boot players like Betancourt, Guillen, and Alberto Callapso. None of these players are good hitters, so there’s not much of a reason, on any level of debate, to keep them in the lineup — and in the field. The Orioles have defended and pitched poorly this season. They are one of the unfortunate teams stuck in the lower-left quadrant.

The Giants do need to improve their offense, because it’s hard to bank on Lincecum and Cain being this good every year, but if the team’s defensive abilities remain above average, the offensive improvement might be smaller than most would think.

Now, let’s move on with the questions.
—

1. 2009 will be (potentially) Brian Sabean’s last year as Giants GM. Would you welcome an extension beyond this upcoming season or is it time for new blood in the front office?

Grant Brisbee (McCovey Chronicles): Ah. The devil you know vs. the devil you don’t. Ever since Jose Castillo was released, Brian Sabean has seemed like a competent GM. I’m not sure if I buy it, but there hasn’t been much to complain about lately. But I can’t answer the question because I have no idea who the Giants would hire. Would they go for one of them there smart dudes from the Indians organization, or would they dredge up some retread? If it’s the latter, I’d just as soon keep Sabean. He probably knows the names of all the people in the office, so why rock the boat?

Lefty (El Lefty Malo): I’ve thought about this a lot, and I’m torn. Part of me really wants to see if Sabean can pull off a riches-to-rags-to-riches story. It’s easy to forget he was one of the best GMs on the planet from 1996 to 2003. Did the game pass him by? Did he lose his secret mojo? Or can he take the skills he used in the Good Years, add them to the hard lessons learned from the Dark Years, and become successful again?

The past year or two, he’s earned back some confidence that he can turn the team around, especially as he’s revamped the scouting operations and replenished the front office. Canning his ass after this year would leave the story incomplete, and what fun is that? If all goes well this year, the team is fun to watch and somewhat competitive, and he doesn’t make any  bonehead trades, I would be open to a one or two year extension when the season ends.

Paul Rice (Give ‘em Some Stankeye): One year ago, if you had asked me if Sabean should be extended, I would have answered with an emphatic “No!” and followed with the requisite temper tantrum. Now though, I’m not so sure. There is some evidence that the veteran fetish and the awful Zito contract were both ownership-influenced and for the most part it seems as though the team is on the right track.

For one thing, they’re finally giving their young players a legitimate shot (or at least appear to be). I’m not much of a fan of Travis Ishikawa, but at least he gets to prove whether he can hang in the big leagues or not. You couldn’t say that three years ago when the Giants were dabbling with the Mark Sweeneys and Shea Hillenbrands of the world. Same for Sandoval. Would he have been given a shot in favor of a Mike Matheny signing? I doubt it.

In the past this team would have signed Orlando Hudson to a ridiculous deal instead of going with Frandsen for pocket change. That they didn’t go after Hudson this season is an encouraging sign. Also, even Sabean’s most vicious critics have to admit that he and his front office team have done a terrific job drafting in the last few years.

There is obviously an appeal to go out and find somebody younger, to get some “new blood” in the front office, as the kids say. The question is who is out there? Competent general managers don’t exactly grow on trees, and you’re running the risk of bringing in somebody worse. Take the Royals. Dayton Moore had an impeccable resume when he took over, but in the last two years that franchise has made some of the stupidest decisions you’ll ever see.

I used to be in the front row of picketers demanding Sabean’s ouster, so I feel weird sitting here actually defending the man. Basically, I’d say retain him unless there is a short list of legitimate, available candidates in mind to replace him. And before you throw Paul DePodesta’s name out there (come on, we were all thinking it), I think he’s stated that he doesn’t want a GM job anytime soon.

Chris Quick (Bay City Ball): Like the others, I’m not sure how I feel about this question. For a time, Sabean was a fantastic GM but he definitely hit a funk. His career with the Giants plays into two parts. The Good (1997-2004) and The Bad (bits a pieces since 2004). But, for better or worse, the Giants have stuck by Sabean for the last two years and the results have been promising — if a little mixed at times. His attempts to land Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. in the same offseason still makes me feel sick (we eventually ended up with Dave Roberts). And his trading record hasn’t been as hot as it once was, but you can’t argue that since 2006 the team’s farm system has made steady improvements. The Zito deal is absolutely crushing but on a few other fronts, Sabes has made some prudent moves. Getting a prospecty arm for Jack Taschner is a minor miracle and he hasn’t sold low on some of our young talent.

All that being said, I wouldn’t mind another 1-2 years for Sabes to see if he’s still got it but I definitely wouldn’t cry if this was his last year as GM. There’s a lot of qualified candidates out there and Nuekom strikes me as a guy that might be a little more forward thinking than Sabean, time will tell but for now, I’ll take a couple of more years of tire-kicking.

2. What’s your biggest concern with the team heading into the season?

GB: The starting pitching. Will they be able to restrain themselves from garroting the starting lineup with piano wire? I wouldn’t be able to.

L: Hitting, hitting, hitting. Even if a couple guys step up, teams will pitch around them. Imagine: Pablo Sandoval goes batshit red-hot crazy and can’t be pitched to. Behind him, it’s….Travis Ishikawa! Rich Aurilia! Aaron Rowand! Not a difficult choice if you’re the opposing manager.

I’m also a bit worried about starting pitching depth. This of course completely contradicts my previous comments about Matt Cain, but if a couple pitchers go down for extended periods, it’s probably up to Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas to hold down the fort. Still, the Giants are in better shape rotation-wise than any of their division rivals and probably any other team in the league.

PR: Offense. Oh, that offense. There is still no power and there are only two guys who take walks with a modicum of regularity. BP projected like a 60-run jump for the team’s offense this year. What? Excuse me if I don’t quite see where those extra runs are going to come from. Edgar Renteria is an obvious upgrade from the unmentionable shortstop situation last year, but not 60 runs worth. Full seasons of Ishikawa and Sandoval still probably won’t get this team to 700 runs scored. I like how the team didn’t succumb to the temptation to lavish an albatross contract on a guy like Manny Ramirez, but finding some people who can produce runs is still a pressing issue. When Fred Lewis and Randy Winn are your best hitters, you’re in trouble.

CQ: Since I developed this question, I’ll cheat a little and say offense and defense. The offense is a no-brainer. This team isn’t going to score a lot of runs and I think everyone has prepared themselves for that reality. But parts of our defense has the potential to be cover-your-eyes bad. I love Sandoval’s bat but I don’t know how he’s going to handle third base full-time. It’s a position he hadn’t played since 2006 and even then it wasn’t his primary position. I still like the Renteria signing but he’s not a defensive whiz by any stretch of the imagination. The OF — pending Rowand playing at least average defense in CF — should be very solid and I like the right-side of the infield. But, man, does the left-side of the infield have the potential to be scary.

3. Poor Matt Cain is always involved in trade rumors, but with only 3 more seasons left on his deal — he’s got a club option for 2011 that will almost certainly be picked up — when does it become interesting to make a trade?

GB: If his K/9 drops at the same time his ERA is superficially low, trade him. Until then, there’s no way the Giants will get value. If the Reds had Matt Wieters and Buster Posey to go with Joey Votto and Yonder Alonso, and they said, “pick two for Cain,” then it would make sense. But that’s pretty danged far-fetched. A one-for-one, Cain-for-Position-Player trade is treading water.

If Bumgarner and Alderson are ready by next spring, maybe I’ll change my mind.

L: I think half way through this year, with several caveats. IF Bumgarner and Alderson are kicking butt in High A and Double A respectively, IF Jonathan Sanchez is realizing his potential and IF Tim Lincecum is showing no signs of slowing down, the Giants should seriously think about it. With so many teams hurting for young starting pitching, the bounty they could fetch for Cain would be incredibly tempting; they might be able to immediately add two good young hitters, plus grab a prospect or two. I think the type of haul Oakland got for Dan Haren is a good goal to shoot for.

PR: It depends a lot on the development of Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner. If they continue to pitch like they have as they ascend through the minor league levels, they should be here before 2011, and Cain becomes more expendable. However, we all know about TINSTAPP and all that jazz.

I personally am very anti-trading Cain. The thing about him is that he’s now proven he can go out and give you 200 innings a year with a top 20 ERA, and how many guys can you say that about? Not too many. The guy is also only, what, 25? This could hardly be his ceiling, especially if he cuts his walks down. I think a lot of people fail to understand exactly how much of an asset Cain really is.

CQ: There’s a lot of good answers for this question but Paul makes a great point — Cain has been darned valuable since he became a full-time starter for the Giants. I think because of his ‘W’ total, he often gets devalued. Fact is that Cain was just as valuable as Roy Oswalt last year — they both added +3.7 wins to their teams — and that statement would probably shock the “Matt Cain just can’t get WINZ” segment of the Giants population. Cain is a legitimate 3-4 win pitcher and that’s nothing to sneeze at. That’s very, very good.

So, before you trade away Cain — and his annual 3-4 wins — you’ve got to make sure you’re getting something close to that in return. It’s definitely going to depend on how prospects like Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson develop this year in the minors. And to a lesser extenet, guys like Henry Sosa and Scott Barnes. If one of these prospects starts making large strides, then you should consider it a little but Cain is just a great value that you better be sure that if you’re trading him, you’re getting quality in return.

4. 2009 will be Bruce Bochy’s last contract year with the Giants. How would you rate the Bochy-era? Happy, dissatisfied, or indifferent?

GB: I’ll never agree with any manager 100% of the time. No one will. So I lean toward indifferent…but, man, the guy’s moves bug me.

L: Strictly by won-loss record, dissatisfied. But I don’t blame Bochy anymore than I would credit him for an above-.500 team. I just don’t think a field manager does that much to affect on-field performance unless it’s something egregious, like ordering hundreds of sac bunts and hit and runs, or burning out pitchers’ arms.

PR: Totally indifferent. I’m firmly of the belief that a manager only has a marginal impact on a team at most, and that a bad manager can hurt a good team more than a good manager can help a mediocre one.

That said, Bochy hasn’t had anything to work with. A John McGraw/Casey Stengel super-duo wouldn’t win a darn thing with the 2007 or 2008 teams, so it’s completely unfair to judge Bochy on a won-loss basis. My major criticism would be that over the past two years, the Giants have been right at the top in hit-and-run attempts. T he hit-and-run play is one of the silliest and most self-immolating strategies in baseball, and obviously Bochy is the guy calling all of them.

In contrast to my thoughts on replacing Sabean, I very much believe that the Giants should bring in a younger, more innovative manager in the Joe Maddon/Manny Acta mold. Somebody who won’t give too much playing time to veterans or adhere so strictly to conventional patterns of bullpen usage that make my head hurt so.

CQ: I’m probably going to come off sounding like a grump on this one, but mark me down as dissatisfied. I agree that mangers don’t have a ton of impact on the outcomes of games and that Bochy hasn’t had squat to work with since he joined the Giants, but my disappointment stems from the one label that Bochy was given before coming to San Francisco — pitcher’s manager. Of all the things I heard about Bochy, one of the things I heard the most was that he protects young arms. After watching him for a couple of seasons, I’m wondering if this Bochy is the same Bochy that managed in San Diego. He’s ridden Cain very hard since he became manager and I thought he was borderline reckless with Tim Lincecum last season. His bullpen management is also pretty frustrating. I’ll be glad to see Bochy go. I think he’s probably a really, really nice guy, but more often than not he drives me crazy.

5. Fantasy time: You’re given GM privileges for one day and you’re allowed to make one team move (trade, contract extension, etc.) what do you do?

GB: I’d bend Alex Hinshaw’s cap. Like, put a real nice crease in it.

Other than that, I’d try and get Nate Schierholtz a starting gig in right field. Whether that comes by trading Rowand for another bad contract, or trading Winn, it’s time to find out if Schierholtz can live up to the Garret Anderson ceiling I’ve assigned to him in my mind.

L: If I had to make the move right now, I’d push hard for an extension for Tim Lincecum. I would not try to make a big trade right now. As many people have noted, this summer will bring serious fire sales as the economy crushes certain teams (the Tigers are one oft-cited example). Come June there should be some fine talent available for very little.

PR: Trade Bengie Molina. Yes, I know this sounds heartless because everybody loves Bengie, and rightly so. But he’s a 34-year-old catcher who played almost every day last season, and with his free-swinging ways, he’s a BABIP casualty waiting to happen. Frankly it makes no sense to keep him around anymore with Sandoval capable of stepping in and Buster Posey right on his heels. That is, unless you really think the team can contend this season, which I don’t.

Now, I’m not naïve enough to think that other GMs out there can’t see all of Molina’s flaws, but there’s definitely a market for a power-hitting catcher. There may be a contender looking to add a catcher who can hit (the Mets?), who will also offer something of value.

What isn’t clear is what the Giants will get if they ride Molina out through the rest of his contract. No one can figure out what those wacky Elias people are doing when they assign letters to free agents, but I’d guess Molina will be a Type B. Basically, I would exhaust every resource trying to trade Molina for equal or better value than that.

CQ: Try to buy out as many of Lincecum’s FA seasons that I can. He’s the most valuable player on the team going forward and if you can get a few of his FA years at a reduced price, you should go for it.

—

Again, thanks to Grant, Lefty, and Paul for taking the time to answer some of these questions. Go Giants!

*Quick side note: Using FanGraph’s new handy-dandy Win Value Leaderboards, we can see just how good Rowand was in 2007. In ’07 he hit: .309/.374/.515 and played above-average defense in CF with a bUZR of +8 runs. Add all that up, and Rowand was worth +5.9 wins above replacement in the National League for his solid season. A 5-6 win player is a legitimate star in any lineup and Rowand’s 5-win total placed him, in terms of value, between Grady Sizemore and Aramis Ramirez. He was the 16th most valuable position player in baseball. By all accounts, Rowand’s year was amazing, the Giants player evaluation skills? That’s still to be determined.

In short, Rowand had a tough first season with his new club. He started the year on a BABIP-fueled tear, but in the 2nd half of the season, his BABIP returned to Earth and he crawled to the finish line. His 2nd half line of: .242/.309/.356 tells a scary story that haunts more than just a few Giants fans. I’ve written gobs about Rowand on this site, so I won’t rehash his ’08 season in it’s entirety. If you’re interested in that, just run a search for ‘Aaron Rowand’ or click on the Aaron Rowand ‘tag’ in the bottom of this post to find more articles on him.

What I do want to look at in today’s post is a graph of Rowand from 2002-08. As I mentioned above, I’ve graphed offense, defense, and both combined with an adjustment against the replacement level. A few quick words on my methods.

1. For offensive batting runs, I’m going simple and using FanGraph’s wRAA. It’s park adjusted — which should help us some with Rowand coming from two great hitters parks in Chicago and Philly — and it’s quickly and easily available from FanGraphs.

2. Again, utilizing FG, I’ll be using bUZR for my defensive metric. UZR is just about the best defensive metric out there and FanGraphs has done a great job making it freely available and easy to parse.

3. Everything is pro-rated to 700 PA’s in order to make things easy to read.

4. OPD = wRAA + bUZR + Positional Adjustment for playing CF.

5. I’ve adjusted the defensive positional adjustment for Rowand from 2002-2004. In those seasons he logged up to 100 innings in the corners and I’ve accounted for that. What I didn’t do was adjust the defensive replacement level line. It’s still set for CF. The adjustments from ’02-’04 are very small and only swing his run total by a fraction.

6. Replacement level is set to 2.25 wins or 22.5 runs. Replacement has varied a little since 2002, but it’s a quick-and-dirty measurement and for this graph, it serves it’s purpose well enough.

7. Thanks to Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Box Score for helping me clean up my spreadsheet that I’m using today.

Let’s check the graph and see what parts of Rowand’s game — offense or defense — have been changing in the past seven years.

Click to enlarge

Let’s examine Rowand’s bat. The orange-slashed-line is for his wRAA pro-rated to 700 PA’s. Rowand’s bat has tended to go up and down every couple of years. Starting from 2002, he’s had OPS+’s of: 81, 102, 130, 93, 86, 123, and 94. 2004 and 2007 were definitely peak years for Rowand at the dish, but most of the time, his bat has played much closer to ‘average’ — or a score of 0 runs — than way above. And, in both ’04 and ’07, Rowand had excellent BABIP’s of .341 and .348. Hitters tend to have more influence on their BABIP’s, his career BABIP is above-average at .325. I found it interesting that Rowand’s BABIP in 2008 was .332, still above-average but much of it was pumped up by his April and May BABIP’s of .413 (!) and .377. Outside of July, Rowand had a BABIP of sub-.300 in each month of ’08. It appears that if Rowand can hit a .340+ BABIP, he’s an impact bat, and if not, he’s closer to an average hitter, which has value.

Outside of his peek years, Rowand’s 2008 performace at the dish wasn’t totally out of place, the most concerning problem may have been his defense. Defense is noted by the green-slashed-line and you can see that while Rowand’s bat has gone up and down over the last few years, he’s been a pretty steady defender. That is, until 2008 when he saw a siginifact drop in his performance. Pro-rated to 700 PA’s, Rowand’s defense in CF has tended to play around +10 runs, that’s about +1 win and it’s fantastic defense to be getting in center. The problem was that last season Rowand stopped defending and fell to around -12 runs on defense in center field. His range, a previous strength, looked very poor and his throwing arm — which bUZR doesn’t account for, but it matters a little — was very erratic. Did his rib injury affect him on defense that much? It’s possible. But, the Giants have to consider that with a player like Rowand — lots of wear and tear — he might start to age poorly as he enter’s his early-30′s. If his defensive decline was injury related, then he might have some bounce back in 2009. But, if it’s a sign of things to come, the Giants are going to have a problem. I think Rowand’s defense is truly one of the bigger wildcards for next season.

You can see from the OPD line, that Rowand has been an above-replacement level player. But, he was pretty close to the line last season. By our graph, it was his worst performance since 2002. In my latest WAR projections, I’ve got Rowand playing +2 wins — or about +20 runs in our graphs context — above replacement level. Much of that depends on him returning to an average defender in CF — I’ve got him right at +0 runs defensively — and maintaining the ability to be a league average hitter. I’m not freaking out about Rowand just yet, but it wasn’t the best way to start a 5-year contract.

Comment Starter: Yes or No, Rowand will bounce back in 2009.

I decided to use bUZR from the years 2002-2008 to find the best and worst defender on each Giants team in each year. My criteria was fielders who played at least 600 innings in the field. It’s a small-ish sample size for one season, but not many players field over 1,000 innings in a season unless they are playing 150 games or more. I’m also using bUZR/150 or bUZR scores prorated to 150 games in a season. This will give you an idea of how good or bad a player would have fielded his position if given the chance to play 150 games.

First, let’s check out the best defenders.

Most shocking inclusion on this list has to be Deivi Cruz who played a +8.3 shortstop for the Giants in 2004. Cruz was really a nice little pick-up that season. He got 400+ AB’s with the Giants that year and hit: .292/.322/.421 while playing above average defense at shortstop. I remember his arm being pretty weak but bUZR thinks he did a better than average job. Randy Winn and Pedro Feliz both make the list twice, they’ve been some of the better defenders for the Giants in recent memory. Feliz was arguably the best defensive third baseman in the game for a couple of seasons and Randy Winn has been one of the best — if not the best — defenders in right.

In 2003 Bonds could still play LF quite well. He saved +15.3 runs over the average National League left fielder. It seems that 2003 was his last year as an outstanding defensive left fielder. In 2004 he dropped to a bUZR/150 of +4, he was hurt in 2005 and when he came back in 2006, he was a -1.9 defender in left. In 2007 he was a -8 defender. For all the flak that Bonds got for being “an immobile object” in left field by sportswriters, most of it wasn’t deserved. Even on one good leg Bonds was a much better defender at his position than present day lumps Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, and Adam Dunn. Reggie Sanders was “a good Giant”. He hit well in 2002 and played very good defense in right field, but much like through his career, Sanders was gone after the season ended. From 1999-2003 Sanders played with 5 different teams. For a pretty good player, he moved around a lot.

You might have expected Omar Vizquel to show up on this list. He just barely missed the cut in 2007 when he scored a bUZR/150 of +20.2. In his four seasons with the Giants, Omar always could field. He had bUZR/150′s of: +10, +7.4, +20.2, and +13.8.

Now, let’s check out the worst defenders:

Most shocking member of team iron glove? I would say that Snow making the list might upset a few people. JT was always a fan favorite for his gold glove defense at first base. But, for whatever reason, he didn’t do well in bUZR for his 2002 season. It could have been something in the system that didn’t like Snow, because a bUZR/150 of -18.2 runs seems shockingly out of whack for his defensive reputation. He fielded over 1,000 innings at first in 2002 but bUZR says that Snow had terrible range. His scores from 2003-2005 seem more accurate. He had scores of: +8.9, +6.9, and +3.1.

Edgardo Alfonzo was a disappointment on both the offensive and defensive ends of his contract. After posting strong offensive seasons in New York, he lost a huge chunk of his power once coming to San Francisco. From 1998-2002 he never posted an ISO under .149, but with the Giants, his ISO’s fell to .132, .118, and finally .068. The final ISO looks like something Omar Vizquel could do. It also looks like he had trouble playing defense. His 2003 score of -3 runs isn’t terrible, it’s very close to being average, but in 2005 someone should have taken his glove away. Does anyone remember him being that bad? I’ve blocked out most of my memories of Fonzy.

I can’t say that I’m surprised to see Grissom pop up for his 2004 season in center field. I can’t tell you how many blooped singles I watched fall in front of Grissom while he was roaming CF for the Giants. He would always run in full steam but watch helplessly as the ball landed 4-5ft in front of him. Every-single-time. He was a pleasant surprise with the bat but he probably didn’t belong in center field at this stage of his career. The Giants picked up him up when he was 36-years-old. In 2001 and 2002 teams started to transition Grissom to LF but the Giants picked him up and played him in CF for 148 games in 2003. In 2004, at 37-years-old, he played 142 games in center. His 2003 bUZR/150 is actually respectable for a player on the last legs of his carer at a defensive position. In that year, Grissom was about average defensively with a score of -2.9 runs. It appears that there’s a fine line between being a useful defensive player and turning into a statue. Marquis crossed that line between 2003 and 2004.

Trying to play Dave Roberts in center was an ugly experiment in 2007. He really had no business playing that position. Rowand’s rating will scare the hell out of pessimists and other people concerned with how he’ll age. If he continues to post double-digit negative run scores in CF, the Giants will have a headache on their hands. He looked slow at times in 2008 and the less we talk about his throwing arm, the better.

Comment Starter: Your favorite all-time Giants defender? Your most hated all-time defender?

In his career Wigginton has played all over the diamond. The Astros mainly used him at 3B last season but he also played 31 games in LF. In his career Wigginton has played 527 games at 3B, 120 games at 2B, 84 games at 1B, and 37 games in LF. The Giants — and many other teams — have openings at third base. Should the team consider Wigginton as starting material at third? Pablo Sandoval is currently penciled in as the third base starter but in Sabes-Speak, that probably doesn’t mean much. Manny Burriss was “penciled in” as the starting shortstop and now he’s competing for the second base job, next week he could be parking cars. On the surface the Giants have publicly stated that they are comfortable with Pablo Sandoval at third base, but I would wager there is a good bit of discomfort in the idea of the big man playing third. Most of the leaked rumors in this offseason have dealt with third basemen like Jorge Cantu or Edwin Encarnacion. There’s also been some Garret Atkins talk. There has been some rumored interest in Wigginton by the Giants with a speculated near trade almost happening at the Winter Meetings.

Let’s take a look at Wigginton and see if he’s a fit.

The Bat

As we mentioned above, in 2008 Ty Wigginton had his best season ever in the batters box. He flashed power, got on base, and hit for his highest batting average since 2002. Let’s examine the last three seasons from Wigginton to see what he’s done with the bat.

I’m using OPS+ for simplicity and FanGraph’s new wRAA measure which is very similar to bRAA — batting runs above average. wRAA is how many runs above average a player contributed with the bat. It includes SB/CS but doesn’t look at RBOE. bRAA includes RBOE but doesn’t include SB/CS.

Over the past three years, Wigginton has been an above average hitter with 2008 being his best year. His wRAA of +15 is nearly twice as much as his 2006 wRAA. Wigginton excels against left-handed pitching. From 2006-2008 he has posted OPS’s of: .897, .935, and 1.055 against left-handers. The Giants struggled equally against both RHP and LHP last season. Wigginton did most of his damage at Houston. His home/road splits are pretty big. At home Wigginton hit 15 of his 22 HR’s and put up a batting line of: .343/.390/.691. On the road he put up a batting line of: .234/.316/.380. According to the First Inning’s Park Factor splits page, in 2008 Houston was the 2nd best park in the National League for RHB’s to hit home runs in. San Francisco played neutral for RHB’s in terms of home runs. Still, even if you adjust for the park he played in, Wigginton was an above average hitter in 2008. OPS+ is park adjusted and stats like wOBA* are also park adjusted. I feel comfortable calling Wigginton an average-to-above-average hitter in 2009.

The Glove

So far we know that Wigginton is a better than average hitter but we must also consider his defense to asses his value. It doesn’t matter how well you can hit the ball if you’re giving away runs on defense. As we listed above, Wigginton is a versatile fielder. He’s played several positions over his career but has he played them well?

Thankfully, FanGraphs now provides UZR information — referred to as bUZR from here on because it utilizes BIS data — and we can see how well Wigginton has played defense. Because the Giants will probably look at Wigginton to play third primarily, that’s what we’ll focus on. He could see some sub-time in LF or maybe 2B, but the bulk of his playing time on defense should come at third base.

bUZR started tracking fielding in 2001 and thankfully, Wigginton didn’t make it to the majors until 2002. So, we can look at his entire career in the field at third base to see how he’s done. bUZR has Wigginton playing 4239.2 career innings at third base. Over those 4,000+ innings Wigginton’s bUZR sits at -51.9. That means that Wigginton has been worth -51.9 runs defensively at third base over his career. That’s about -5 wins over his career on defense alone. FanGraph’s UZR/150 — or bUZR prorated to 150 games in a season — has Wigginton at -14.9. Meaning that if you let Wigginton play 150 games in a season at third,  he’d cost you -14.9 runs in the field. That’s not good.

Tango’s Fan Scouting Report — an annual scouting report filled out by the fans who actually watch these guys play defense — has Wigginton as an overall 37. That’s position neutral as well. In Tango’s system, a score of 50 is league average. So, by the fans, Wigginton scores as a below average fielder which matches his bUZR numbers. Tango has 7 categories in which fans can rate a player — Instincts, First Step, Speed, Hands, Release, Strength, Accuracy — and out of the 7, Wigginton scored the lowest in the ‘Hands’ category.

If go back to bUZR briefly, here is Wigginton’s numbers over the last three years at third.

Over the last three years, Wigginton actually posted his best defense at third base last season. Over 150 games he would have been worth -3.2 runs below average. That’s much more livable than his career -14.9 at third. Did Wigginton make himself a better defender? I wouldn’t say that just yet. If you notice in nearly the same sample in 2007 he was much worse than 2008. What changed over just a year? Probably nothing. Wigginton’s 2008 sample of 652 innings at third is pretty small and could have been affected by a couple of things. Maybe BIP distribution favored Wigginton this year and he was able to get to more balls because they were hit at him. In small samples for defensive stats like bUZR, BIP distribution can skew things pretty easily. It will serve our purposes better if we examine the bigger picture and not the latest 600 inning slice of data.

I think we can agree that Wigginton’s true talent level on defense is somewhere between -5 and -10 runs. Probably closer to -10 than -5.

Projecting and Valuing the Future Wiggy

Ty Wigginton is an above average hitter with below average defense at third base. But, how does he project for the future? Marcel thinks he’ll be a .347 wOBA hitter which is not quite the same hitter he was in 2008, but an above average hitter none-the-less. League wOBA in 2009 is projected to be .332 or so.

Let’s go a quick WAR on Wigginton. I’ll be using Tango’s newest positional adjustments which will give Wigginton a slight boost at third.

+0.87 wins above average for offense (using the projected .347 wOBA from Marcel and the assumed .332 wOBA league average)
-0.75 wins on defense (I decided to split it between -5 and -10 runs)
+0.25 positional adjustment for playing 3B
+2 wins for replacement level
————————–
+2.37 WAR * (.80) = 1.89 WAR

The (.80) is the projected playing time — it works out to about 550 PA’s in a season. Teams have been paying about $5M per WAR this offseason, so Wigginton should be worth about $9.45M per season.

So, if the Giants want to sign Wigginton, they’ll most likely have to pay him around $9M per season. A 2-year, $18M deal for him would be fair market value. The question is, should they?

I guess it depends on how high you are on Sandoval. If you think Sandoval can hit around a .347 wOBA and play better than -10 runs at third, then you should just let him play. If you don’t think he can, then you might want to consider Wigginton. The Marcel projection for Sandoval has him at a .355 wOBA, but Marcel doesn’t consider minor league performances and the reliability score on Pablo’s projection is pretty low. It should be taken with some skepticism. ZiPS is slightly more pessimistic and has Pablo at .330 wOBA — note, that because ZiPS doesn’t have HBP’s or RBOE’s in it’s projection Pablo could be due a few more points.

If the Giants do sign Wigginton, Pablo will slide over to 1B most likely and knock Ishikawa back to a bench-job. Pablo’s value plays the least at 1B/3B so neither position is truly appealing. I think Wigginton is a nice player. He’s an average hitter (or slightly above) with poor defense who’s done well against LHP in his career. On a team that needs a player like him — read: close to contending — he could be a nice asset. I don’t like him as much as a full-time starter at 3B mainly because of his defense. Renteria should be an slightly-below average SS and if the Giants do bring in a third baseman like Wigginton, the left-side of the infield could be pretty frustrating at times. Wigginton is a nice player, I’m just not sure how he fits in our current roster.

Comment Starter: Does Wigginton fit? (no fat jokes!)

The Hardball Times has a nice article on UZR and some other defensive metrics here. You can also read some of MGL’s original posts on UZR which prove to be very informative if you are curious about the inner workings of the system. The bottom line is that UZR is one of the more respected defensive systems out there and to be able to get it for free, is awesome news. Let’s check out some 2008 UZR numbers for the San Francisco Giants.

2008 Giants Fielders by UZR (min. 300 innings)

The table is sorted by UZR/150 or how many runs a player would save over 150 games. I’ve also limited my data to fielders with a minimum of 300 innings played at a defensive position.

A quick note on sample sizes and defensive metrics. Looking at Burriss’ -14.1 runs below average for position might freak you out but understand that 315 innings is but a tiny drop in the bucket. It doesn’t tell us anything about Burriss. It has no predictive value and all we can say is that in 315 innings played at shortstop in 2008, he was below average. Is that his true talent level? We don’t know. The sample size is just too small and ideally you’ll want a few seasons worth of data before you try and figure out the true talent level of a player. Dave Cameron makes a good point on USSM about comparing players across positions. Burriss may have been below average in his brief 315 innings but UZR will compare him to his peers; ie: other shortstops. This is good because we want to know how Burriss stacks up against other shortstops but also remember that shortstops, as a group, are some of the most athletic defenders on the baseball diamond. A -10 shortstop isn’t the same as a -10 left fielder or first baseman, who are on average, less athletic. Burriss is being compared to Omar Vizquel, Cezar Izturis, J.J. Hardy, and Jimmy Rollins. Fred Lewis is being compared to Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, and Pat Burrell. Context is important when thinking about these rankings.

Is Randy Winn one of the most undervalued players in baseball? Every year he hits about the same, providing league average offense — wOBA+’s of 96, 107, and 108 over the last three seasons — while playing some of the best right field in all of baseball. Last season, Winn was the best defensive right fielder in the game by UZR. He was worth +18.9 runs by his defensive play alone, that’s nearly +2 wins. This isn’t anything new for Winn. From 2006-2007 he was worth +15.3 and +11.9 runs above average in right field. Winn’s game is extremely un-flashy but as an overall player, he’s been one of the better Giants over the last couple of years.

Besides Randy Winn, Omar Vizquel and Fred Lewis are the only other players who scored as above average fielders in UZR. Vizquel’s bat might be dead but his defense is still very good. If Vizquel would have somehow played 150 games — that’s not going to happen any more — he would have saved 13.8 runs. A team who needs a late inning defensive replacement might consider Vizquel, just don’t let him hit too much. Fred Lewis did well in LF in ’08, he was worth +7 runs above average for his playing time and would have been closer to +12 runs in 150 games played. Lewis’ good foot-speed helped him to overcome sometimes awkward routes in LF to be a above average defender.

The Giants have to be worried about Aaron Rowand’s defensive performance in 2008. Rowand has been a good defender in CF but he saw a complete reversal of fortune last year. Check out his UZR’s from 2002-2007: +12.6, +9.2, +9.6, +16.5, +4.6, and +7.9. Those are solid defensive numbers to be getting from your CF. I’m not sure Rowand is the type to age well — plays hurt all the time, runs into walls, GAMER, etc. — and the Giants have to be hoping he’s not hitting a wall (no pun intended) at 30-years-old. If the team does have to move him out of center, I think he’ll be headed to LF. Playing right field in AT&T is almost like playing a second center field and if Rowand can’t hack it in CF, I can’t see him doing much better in RF. Next year will be a big year for Rowand and if he continues to slide, his contract starts to look much worse. I’m hoping he was hurt but we can’t just throw out all of his 2008 data and wish that it didn’t happen. For what it’s worth, CHONE’s defensive projections for 2009 see Rowand bouncing back to a +7 CF.

The rest of the list has the usual suspects. Rich Aurilia is an average defender at first base but takes a dip at third. John Bowker struggled at first base in ’08 and I’m guessing the Giants won’t revisit that expirmanet anytime soon. Velez rated better than I thought he would have, but remember, the sample size is too small to draw any conclusions from. Jose Castillo played better at third than I expected and Durham is closer to an average defender than I expected. Ray might have a couple of years left in the tank if he wishes to pursue them. New guy Edgar Renteria isn’t on my list, but he scored as a +1.1 shortstop for the Tigers in 2008. PMR hated Renteria and plus/minus had him as below average, but he might not be as bad as we thought. If you check out his fielding data over the past four years, you can see he looks to be pretty steady, fielding around average each year.