Bay City Ball

If you’ve seen one game this year of Giants baseball you know that this team doesn’t hit for power. Not hitting for power means not hitting for home runs. El Lefty Malo recently touched on this conundrum. The Giants, as a team, aren’t projected to eclipse the century mark for home runs this year. They would be the first team since the 1993 Marlins to not hit at least 100 home runs in a full season of baseball.

In yesterday’s post, we learned that the Giants steak of 12 consecutive games without a HR was the largest streak for any team in the major leagues this year. When your team is composed of hitters such as: Omar Vizquel, Randy Winn, Jose Castillo, and Dave Roberts, who all get significant playing time, you don’t figure to hit a lot of home runs.

Entering yesterdays game, the Giants did not have a singe player to have double digit home runs. Enter Braves pitcher Chuck James:

Click to enlarge

That’s a HR/9 graph from Chuck James’ FanGraphs page. In 29.2 innings pitched this year, James has given up 10 home runs. He’s given up at least one home run in all of his seven starts this year. Is HR/FB is 20%, meaning that 20 percent of his batted flyballs are leaving the park. That’s an incredible statistic when you consider that the league average HR/FB is between 10-12%.

In the bottom of the 1st Aaron Rowand steps to the plate with a runner on and this happens. Rowand hits a deep flyball to LF to become the first Giant to hit double digits for home runs. 118 hitters in the majors have hit more home runs than our top home run hitter. Currently the Giants have 63 home runs as a team.

Tim Lincecum had another very, very solid performance. Lincecum’s final line was:

8 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 SO

Tim lowered his ERA to 2.68 and raised his ERA+ to 160. Among all major league pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched and ranked by ERA+, Tim is currently 4th. Only Cliff Lee, Danny Haren, and Carlos Zambrano have had better years. If the season ended right now, Linecum’s ERA+ would be good enough to place him 5th all-time since 1956 for Giants starters. Think about how amazing that is. Those four guys in front of him?

Cnt    Player    **ERA+**   IP  Year Age
+----+-----------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Jason Schmidt    179   207.2 2003  30
2 Juan Marichal    169   295.1 1965  27
3 Juan Marichal    168   299.2 1969  31
4 Juan Marichal    167   307.1 1966  28

If you ranked Giants pitchers since 1956 by ERA+ who were 24-years-old or younger and who threw at least 140 innings.

Cnt    Player      **ERA+** IP   Year Age
+----+------------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Tim Lincecum       160   157.2 2008  24
2 Bob Knepper        131   260   1978  24
3 Shawn Estes        130   201   1997  24
4 Mike McCormick     129   253   1960  21
5 Jim Barr           123   179   1972  24

Since 1956, Tim Lincecum is having the best season of any young Giants pitcher, ever. Bob Knepper went 17-11 in 1978. We’ve got a Shawn Estes sighting for his 1997 All-Star season. Mike McCormick and Jim Barr are also well known Giants pitchers. Let’s increase our range and go from 1876-2008 and look at the Giants franchise. Same parameters of innings pitched, age, and ranked by ERA+

Cnt    Player      **ERA+** IP   Year Age
+----+------------+------+-----+----+---+
1 Christy Mathewson  230   338.2 1905  24
2 Amos Rusie         189   444   1894  23
3 Johnny Antonelli   177   258.2 1954  24
4 Jeff Tesreau       173   243   1912  24
5 Tim Lincecum       160   157.2 2008  24
6 Hal Schumacher     148   258.2 1933  22
7 Christy Mathewson  147   366.1 1903  22
8 Amos Rusie         144   482   1893  22
9 Christy Mathewson  138   336   1901  20
10 Rube Marquard     134   277.2 1911  24

Christy Mathewson, greatest young Giants pitcher, ever? Lincecum’s having a good year, but I don’t think he’s going to catch Mathewson’s 230 ERA+ 1905 season. In fact, Mathewson makes this list 3 times. He’s also the youngest player in our top-10 of young greats. At the tender age of 20 Mathewson went 20-17 with a 2.41 ERA. Johnny Antonelli is an interesting player. He debuted in 1948 as an 18-year-old with the Boston Braves. In 1954, he was traded from the Milwaukee Braves along with Billy Klaus, Don Liddle, Ebba St. Claire — great baseball name — and cash to the New York Giants for Bobby Thompson and Sam Calderone. In that ‘54 season Antonelli went 21-7 with a 2.30 ERA. For those looking for Matt Cain, his 2007 season at age 22 places him 26th on this list.

Our list is rounded out with Amos Rusie, Jeff Tesreau, Hal Schumacher, and Rube Marquard (another great baseball name). Regardless of where Lincecum ends up in Giants history, it’s amazing how well he’s done in such a short time. I wonder how many teams are kicking themselves for not drafting Lincecum?

—

Edit: I forgot to include this the first time around, but it’s official, the Giants have come to terms with supplemental draft pick 3B Conor Gillapsie. There had been some rumors percolating over the past couple of days that the deal was done, but nothing definite until now.

From SFGiants.com:

San Francisco now has signed 14 of its first 19 selections, though Gillaspie is the only signee among the club’s top four picks. Director of player personnel Bobby Evans wouldn’t disclose the terms of the deal, per team policy, but he said the signing process was “typical” and had been “ongoing since the day we chose him.”

On Monday, a Wichita, Kan.-based NBC news affiliate reported Gillaspie had agreed to a pro contract with the Giants that included a $975,000 signing bonus and other incentives.

Buster Posey, Roger Kieschnick, and Brandon Crawford are still unsigned. Posey should go down to the wire, as might Crawford, but I think Kieschnick might be the next to ink a deal. Let’s hope the Giants can get all three of these players signed.

That was the first thought that ran through my head as Bud Selig read aloud the Giants 5th overall pick in this years draft.

“With the 5th pick in the First-Years Player Draft of 2008, the San Francisco Giants select Gerald Posey, catcher, from Florida State University”

Second thought, I guess the Giants aren’t scared off by his rumored $12M pre-draft demands. Posey and the Giants both know that he won’t sniff 12 large ones, but it was enough to drop Gerald, err Buster, a few slots down to the Giants at the #5 pick. I expect he’ll sign because Posey has no incentive to head back to college over a few million dollars. If he heads back to college and gets injured or declines or has a bad year, his payday will be gone. In the 2007 draft Matt Weiters, another catcher, was drafted 5th overall and signed for $6M. Posey might get anywhere between $6-9M but I’ll be really surprised if he hits double-digits.

The Giants will have until August 15th to get a deal done with Posey or they’ll retain the same pick for next years draft. If Posey signs quickly, he’ll probably report to short-season Salem-Keizer.

Third thought, I really like what the Giants did in this draft.

John Shea from the Chronicle runs down some points on Posey:

Posey, whose college team (Florida State) would earn a berth to the College World Series by beating Wichita State in a best-of-three series this weekend, leads Division I hitters in batting average (.468), RBIs (86), slugging percentage (.897) and on-base percentage (.572).

Right now, Posey projects as an above average catch both offensively and defensively. He doesn’t have the same power projection that the big slugging first basemen had in this draft — Smoask, Hosmer, Alonso — but he should hit .280 or better, draw walks, and pop 15-20 HR’s a year. For a catcher, that’s an All-Star. He’s super athletic — you’ve heard of the game where he played all 9 positions — and even though he’s fairly new to the catcher position — he came to college as a short stop — he’s taken well to the switch. Posey has a plus-arm behind the plate. He has hit 94mph on the mound and also has good accuracy behind the dish. Because Posey is already very polished and super athletic, he’s got a chance to move fast and be in a Giants uniform by 2010.

Brian Sabean hinted that with Molina’s contract running out after next year, Posey could be on the “fast track”:

“(Posey) is on the fast track and Bengie’s clock is winding down,” Sabean said. “It’s really up to him how soon he wants to get going and how soon he can get here.”

Thanks for the effort, Bengie, now see ya later! With Sandoval having a breakout year and Posey — hopefully — now entering the system, the Giants could have two potential solid catchers in the wings. With Sabean’s comments about Molina “winding down” I wonder if they might entertain a trade offer or two for him at the trading deadline this year or over the offseason? Sandoval will most likely end up this year in AAA and might even see sometime with the big club this September. And if Sandoval isn’t ready by next year, the Giants could bring in a 1-year stopgap if they decide to move Molina.

After Posey, the Giants drafted the following players.

Name                Pick#   Position     College/HS     BA-Rank
Conor Gillapsie       37       3B        Wichita St       23
Roger Kieschnick      82       OF        Texas Tech       44
Brandon Crawford     117       SS           UCLA          134
Edwin Quirarte       147       RHP      Cal St. North.    NA
Eric Surkamp         177       LHP      N.Carolina St.    NA

I said earlier that I liked what the Giants did in this draft and the picks of Gillaspie, Roger K., and Brandon Crawford are a big reason why. The Giants got some really nice value late with these picks.

Gillapsie might not have the prototypical power for third base, but he can hit. He’s a pure hitter that makes solid contact and controls the strike zone. You’ll hear him compared to Bill Mueller a lot because he should hit for average and get on base. He might not hit a lot of home runs, but he should hit a ton of doubles and get his fair share of triples. He’s projected to stick at third base defensively, with soft hands and a good throwing arm. Gillapsie is very polished as a college hitter and could move fast. Great pick by the Giants.

Roger Kieschnick is another pick that I like. He’s got above-average power to all fields and could profile as a 5-tool player. His arm should be strong enough to keep him in RF and despite some concerns about his hitting mechanics and aggressiveness, he’s improved every year in college as a player.

From RedRaiders.com:

If Kieschnick signs, he will leave behind a great legacy at Tech as one of its most prolific hitters. He currently ranks in the top five in school history in at bats (689), hits (222), doubles (54), home runs (39) and RBIs (156), and the 168 games played ranks sixth all time.

He finished his junior year by improving in every major statistical category from his sophomore year. The 2006 Big 12 Conference Freshman of the Year who hit a grand slam in his first career game and the 2008 season finale May 16 against Baylor, Kieschnick in 2008 hit .305 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs. The home run and RBI totals led the Big 12 during the regular season.

Kieschnick was considered to be the top position player coming out of Texas this year.

Crawford is a guy that could prove to be a nice pickup late in the draft. From the MLB.com draft report.

After his first two seasons at UCLA, Crawford seemed poised to be one of the top collegiate middle infielders in the class. But a rough Cape season appears to have carried over and he’s lost some confidence in his game, both at the plate and in the field. Some added thickness to his lower half has taken away a little of his quickness, though he’s still a solid shortstop. If he can right himself, he’s the kind of player who usually sees himself go off the board within the first couple of rounds.

A nice pick to see if Crawford can regain some of the promise that he showed in his first two seasons at UCLA. Bryan Smith from the BP Roundtable has a great take on the Crawford pick.

Bryan Smith (4:39:42 PM PT): The Giants pop Brandon Crawford here in the fourth, and I think it’s a fabulous selection. Crawford is incredibly raw for someone his age, but he has some really nice tools. After going for sure bets in Buster Posey and Conor Gillaspie, Crawford is the perfect type of complement. Throw in Roger Kieschnick, who was once considered a first round right fielder, and it’s possible — not likely, but possible — the Giants just filled half their future.

Smith is right on the money, it’s a great complement pick to the more polished guys.

I don’t know much and can’t find much on the two pitchers that the Giants took. You can watch a video of Edwin Quirarte on the MLB.com draft page for the Giants. And you can find his 06-07 stats on the Baseball Cube. His stats from these years don’t look like anything special, ERA’s of 4.50 and 6.57, but in his video he touches 91mph a few times and looks to be throwing a slider in low-80’s. He’ll probably work best as a reliever. Surkamp’s stats look a little better but I have no idea what he throws.

From Scout.com on Surkamp:

Surkamp, a junior from Cincinnati, Ohio, went 5-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Surkamp went through an up-and-down 2008 season, but is finishing on an up note, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.91 ERA in his last four starts. A second-team All-ACC pick as a sophomore in 2007, Surkamp has worked 73 2/3 innings in 15 starts, allowing 74 hits, walking 38 an d striking out 86.

Overall, I really like what the Giants did in this draft, selecting 4 college position players with their first four picks. Posey and Gillapsie could both move fast and Kieschnick and Crawford might move a little slower, but both offer some nice upside. Some fans might be upset that the Giants picked Posey over someone like Justin Smoak but the Giants took the best position player available. Only Pedro Alvarez was ranked higher on the Giants list of draft candidates. But don’t get me wrong, I would have loved the power potential of Justin Smoak but Posey is a fine pick at #5. I do think Smoak was an absolute steal at #11 for the Rangers, he’s going to hit a ton of home runs for the Rangers.

Let’s get these guys signed. Day Two of the draft finishes up today, you can follow the results on MLB.com.

Comment Starter: Happy with the draft? Or irked by passing up a power bat?