They often say that the biggest transition for a prospect is between A and AA baseball. I’m not sure if that’s true or not, but it often seems that way. By all accounts Crawford’s glove was still terrific — BA ranked him the best defensive infielder in the system, here — but you’ve got show at least something offensively to carve out a starting role in the majors. Stat-watchers should have expected Crawford to have a rough transition from San Jose to Connecticut. Why? Crawford’s BABIP in San Jose was a staggering .493. We know that hitters can have a larger affect on their BABIP than their pitching counterparts, but a near .500 BABIP is an outlier. Crawford was hitting for a ton of power in San Jose (ISO .229) but he was striking out in nearly 1/3rd of his at-bats (K% 30.48%). When he got to AA, he walked even less (dropping from 8% to 4%) and his BABIP dropped to a more reasonable .334.

It was a rough stretch in AA for Crawford. The Giants left him in AA to start the 2010 season and so far the early returns have been great. Some numbers:

Year	Tm	        Lev	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP
2009	2 Teams	        AA-A+	542	5.54%	26.56%	0.132	.364
2009	San Jose	A+	119	8.40%	30.48%	0.229	.493
2009	Connecticut	AA	423	4.73%	25.51%	0.107	.334
2010	Richmond	AA	166	16.29%	24.44%	0.148	.294

Data pulled from 5.23.10

I’ve listed 4 pretty important statistics for hitters above. How much they walk (BB%), strikeout (K%), how much power they hit for (ISO), and their batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The most impressive development about Crawford’s second crack at AA baseball has been his BB% — it currently stands at 16.29%. After posting a 4.73% in AA last year, Crawford has nearly quadrupled his walk rate this year. He’s still striking out at the same rate, but strikeouts are less egregious if you can supplement them with other skills — namely getting on base via the walk and hitting for power. Overall, the Eastern League is a pretty tough place for hitters. For example, the league average hitter in the EL right now is hitting .251/.328/.378 (OPS .706). That includes slugging first basemen, outfielders, and other offense first positions. Comparatively, Crawford is hitting .252/.364/.400 (OPS .764). And that’s as a SS with above-average defense. Crawford’s ISO isn’t in the .200+ range that it was in San Jose, but at the current .148 he’s showing moderate power.

The biggest caveat is that it’s still early in the year — just 166 plate appearances to this point — but if Crawford’s change at the plate is for real, his ceiling adjusts a little from bench glove to potential starter.

If we call Crawford a .310 wOBA batter in the majors — think Orlando Caberera’s 2009 season or about any .700 OPS batter in the majors — we could value Crawford as follows:

Batting Wins Above Average (.310 wOBA, league wOBA .332): –1.28 wins
Defensive Wins Above Average: +0.5 wins
SS Positional Adjustment: +.75 wins
Replacement Level: +2.25 wins
-——————————————————————-
= 2.22 wins above replacement * .8 (or 80% playing time ie: 560 PA’s) = +1.78 wins

Under our assumptions above he projects as a 1.78 win player for the Giants in 80% playing time. I’m calling him a +5 run defender at SS, which is very good when you consider he plays in the most athletic player group in baseball. Also, keep in mind that this WAR valuation is without any baserunning component. Crawford should be mobile enough to chip in a couple of runs with is legs each year.

Depending on how Crawford finishes out this year — and if his new plate approach is for real — the Giants should have a couple of decisions on their mind. Edgar Renteria and Juan Uribe are both free agents after this season and Crawford is the only prospect in the minors that you could consider for the opening at SS. From the looks of it, the best available ’11 SS FA will be J.J. Hardy. The Giants might want to consider signing a SS that can play half the year at the position before turning it over to Crawford. Again, it’s still very early in the year, but Crawford’s progress is quite encouraging. He’s probably the #5 prospect in the Giants system right now.

I would break down the Top-5 as follows:

1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zach Wheeler
4. Thomas Neal
5. Brandon Crawford

With Brandon Belt around #6-8.

Comment Starter: What do you make of Crawford’s season so far? Is it too aggressive to pencil him into the 2011 Giants team?

Today, news is out that the Giants have promoted three of their better prospects from A+ San Jose to AA Connecticut. Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson — the system’s two best pitching prospects — make their way to AA and tagging along is 2008 draft pick, SS Brandon Crawford. The Bumgarner and Alderson promotions were expected but it’s slightly surprising to see Crawford get pushed up a level. Though, as a college prospect it’s not shocking.

Crawford has been excellent for San Jose. According to First Inning’s wOBA leaderboard for the California League, Crawford’s wOBA of .440 is good for 5th place in the league. Crawford has hit for power (ISO of .219) and he’s walking some (BB% of 8.4) but he’s also whiffing a good bit (K% of 26.9). His near .500 BABIP is due for some regression as well and it’ll be very interesting to see how he handles the much, much tougher hitting environment of the Eastern League. The Good News ™ for Crawford is that his defense is considered very good and at this point, there aren’t any questions of whether or not he can stick at SS. So, he doesn’t need to hit like a #3 hitter to be a very valuable player at his position. Crawford has immediately become the best SS prospect in the Giants system. AA should be a good opportunity for Crawford to work on his plate discipline. Keep an eye on him.

Something else I noticed while browsing through the California League is that Giants prospect, Thomas Neal, is having a great start to his season. Neal’s wOBA of .451 is 3rd in the Cal League and he’s flashing some power (ISO of .276). Neal has always been a semi-interesting prospect with some power potential but position issues. He’s moved between 1B and the OF where he’ll likely remain. At 21-years-old he’s not overly old for his level, but he could use a promotion this year if he keeps hitting.

—

For the 7th time this year, the Giants scored 1 run or less in a game when they took a 11-1 loss to the Rockies last night. At 26 games played, the Giants have scored 1 run or less 26.9% of the time this season. Their offense is still in dead last for runs scored (the current number sits at 91 making them the only team under 100 runs scored). Giants first basemen are collectively hitting a .235 wOBA, good for worst 1B production in the majors.

Here’s the Giants rank by position and wOBA for the MLB:

Reeeetch.

The right-side of the infield is amazingly bad. Neifi Perez (career wOBA of .290) bad. The OF has ranged from average-ish to bad. SS and 3B have been adequate, even a little above average. And C is above-average. The Giants should give Ishikawa and Burriss a little more rope to play with, but don’t be surprised if the team makes a roster move at 1B and 2B in a couple of weeks. This type of production (and offense) is unbearable.

—

Good news on the bullpen front, Sergio Romo is throwing in extended ST.

From SFGiants.com:

Romo has been sidelined since Spring Training with a sprained throwing elbow. But Bochy said that the 26-year-old pitched a game Tuesday without incident in extended spring training at the team’s Scottsdale, Ariz., training complex. Bochy said that after one more outing, Romo likely will report to either Class A San Jose or Triple-A Fresno to pitch and make sure his arm is in shape.

A healthy Romo would be a boost to the bullpen and would most likely knock out someone like Brandon Medders. I’m always concerned when a pitcher has an elbow injury and the Giants should take it slow with him.

“With the 5th pick in the First-Years Player Draft of 2008, the San Francisco Giants select Gerald Posey, catcher, from Florida State University”

Second thought, I guess the Giants aren’t scared off by his rumored $12M pre-draft demands. Posey and the Giants both know that he won’t sniff 12 large ones, but it was enough to drop Gerald, err Buster, a few slots down to the Giants at the #5 pick. I expect he’ll sign because Posey has no incentive to head back to college over a few million dollars. If he heads back to college and gets injured or declines or has a bad year, his payday will be gone. In the 2007 draft Matt Weiters, another catcher, was drafted 5th overall and signed for $6M. Posey might get anywhere between $6-9M but I’ll be really surprised if he hits double-digits.

The Giants will have until August 15th to get a deal done with Posey or they’ll retain the same pick for next years draft. If Posey signs quickly, he’ll probably report to short-season Salem-Keizer.

Third thought, I really like what the Giants did in this draft.

John Shea from the Chronicle runs down some points on Posey:

Posey, whose college team (Florida State) would earn a berth to the College World Series by beating Wichita State in a best-of-three series this weekend, leads Division I hitters in batting average (.468), RBIs (86), slugging percentage (.897) and on-base percentage (.572).

Right now, Posey projects as an above average catch both offensively and defensively. He doesn’t have the same power projection that the big slugging first basemen had in this draft — Smoask, Hosmer, Alonso — but he should hit .280 or better, draw walks, and pop 15-20 HR’s a year. For a catcher, that’s an All-Star. He’s super athletic — you’ve heard of the game where he played all 9 positions — and even though he’s fairly new to the catcher position — he came to college as a short stop — he’s taken well to the switch. Posey has a plus-arm behind the plate. He has hit 94mph on the mound and also has good accuracy behind the dish. Because Posey is already very polished and super athletic, he’s got a chance to move fast and be in a Giants uniform by 2010.

Brian Sabean hinted that with Molina’s contract running out after next year, Posey could be on the “fast track”:

“(Posey) is on the fast track and Bengie’s clock is winding down,” Sabean said. “It’s really up to him how soon he wants to get going and how soon he can get here.”

Thanks for the effort, Bengie, now see ya later! With Sandoval having a breakout year and Posey — hopefully — now entering the system, the Giants could have two potential solid catchers in the wings. With Sabean’s comments about Molina “winding down” I wonder if they might entertain a trade offer or two for him at the trading deadline this year or over the offseason? Sandoval will most likely end up this year in AAA and might even see sometime with the big club this September. And if Sandoval isn’t ready by next year, the Giants could bring in a 1-year stopgap if they decide to move Molina.

After Posey, the Giants drafted the following players.

Name                Pick#   Position     College/HS     BA-Rank
Conor Gillapsie       37       3B        Wichita St       23
Roger Kieschnick      82       OF        Texas Tech       44
Brandon Crawford     117       SS           UCLA          134
Edwin Quirarte       147       RHP      Cal St. North.    NA
Eric Surkamp         177       LHP      N.Carolina St.    NA

I said earlier that I liked what the Giants did in this draft and the picks of Gillaspie, Roger K., and Brandon Crawford are a big reason why. The Giants got some really nice value late with these picks.

Gillapsie might not have the prototypical power for third base, but he can hit. He’s a pure hitter that makes solid contact and controls the strike zone. You’ll hear him compared to Bill Mueller a lot because he should hit for average and get on base. He might not hit a lot of home runs, but he should hit a ton of doubles and get his fair share of triples. He’s projected to stick at third base defensively, with soft hands and a good throwing arm. Gillapsie is very polished as a college hitter and could move fast. Great pick by the Giants.

Roger Kieschnick is another pick that I like. He’s got above-average power to all fields and could profile as a 5-tool player. His arm should be strong enough to keep him in RF and despite some concerns about his hitting mechanics and aggressiveness, he’s improved every year in college as a player.

From RedRaiders.com:

If Kieschnick signs, he will leave behind a great legacy at Tech as one of its most prolific hitters. He currently ranks in the top five in school history in at bats (689), hits (222), doubles (54), home runs (39) and RBIs (156), and the 168 games played ranks sixth all time.

He finished his junior year by improving in every major statistical category from his sophomore year. The 2006 Big 12 Conference Freshman of the Year who hit a grand slam in his first career game and the 2008 season finale May 16 against Baylor, Kieschnick in 2008 hit .305 with 17 home runs and 65 RBIs. The home run and RBI totals led the Big 12 during the regular season.

Kieschnick was considered to be the top position player coming out of Texas this year.

Crawford is a guy that could prove to be a nice pickup late in the draft. From the MLB.com draft report.

After his first two seasons at UCLA, Crawford seemed poised to be one of the top collegiate middle infielders in the class. But a rough Cape season appears to have carried over and he’s lost some confidence in his game, both at the plate and in the field. Some added thickness to his lower half has taken away a little of his quickness, though he’s still a solid shortstop. If he can right himself, he’s the kind of player who usually sees himself go off the board within the first couple of rounds.

A nice pick to see if Crawford can regain some of the promise that he showed in his first two seasons at UCLA. Bryan Smith from the BP Roundtable has a great take on the Crawford pick.

Bryan Smith (4:39:42 PM PT): The Giants pop Brandon Crawford here in the fourth, and I think it’s a fabulous selection. Crawford is incredibly raw for someone his age, but he has some really nice tools. After going for sure bets in Buster Posey and Conor Gillaspie, Crawford is the perfect type of complement. Throw in Roger Kieschnick, who was once considered a first round right fielder, and it’s possible — not likely, but possible — the Giants just filled half their future.

Smith is right on the money, it’s a great complement pick to the more polished guys.

I don’t know much and can’t find much on the two pitchers that the Giants took. You can watch a video of Edwin Quirarte on the MLB.com draft page for the Giants. And you can find his 06-07 stats on the Baseball Cube. His stats from these years don’t look like anything special, ERA’s of 4.50 and 6.57, but in his video he touches 91mph a few times and looks to be throwing a slider in low-80′s. He’ll probably work best as a reliever. Surkamp’s stats look a little better but I have no idea what he throws.

From Scout.com on Surkamp:

Surkamp, a junior from Cincinnati, Ohio, went 5-2 with a 4.28 ERA. Surkamp went through an up-and-down 2008 season, but is finishing on an up note, posting a 1-0 record with a 2.91 ERA in his last four starts. A second-team All-ACC pick as a sophomore in 2007, Surkamp has worked 73 2/3 innings in 15 starts, allowing 74 hits, walking 38 an d striking out 86.

Overall, I really like what the Giants did in this draft, selecting 4 college position players with their first four picks. Posey and Gillapsie could both move fast and Kieschnick and Crawford might move a little slower, but both offer some nice upside. Some fans might be upset that the Giants picked Posey over someone like Justin Smoak but the Giants took the best position player available. Only Pedro Alvarez was ranked higher on the Giants list of draft candidates. But don’t get me wrong, I would have loved the power potential of Justin Smoak but Posey is a fine pick at #5. I do think Smoak was an absolute steal at #11 for the Rangers, he’s going to hit a ton of home runs for the Rangers.

Let’s get these guys signed. Day Two of the draft finishes up today, you can follow the results on MLB.com.

Comment Starter: Happy with the draft? Or irked by passing up a power bat?