Bay City Ball

Expert Analysis: Kevin Correia, he’s pretty good until that one inning where he’s not.

Here’s the pitch count by inning for Correia in last nights 7-6 win over the Dodgers. See if you can find where the trouble started.

Inning    PC#
  1       12
  2       11
  3       10
  4       14
  5       36
  6*      7

* Didn’t pitch the full inning, retired one batter, gave up a hit and was pulled.

The Giants hung a 7-0 lead on the Dodgers by the 4th and Correia almost gave it all back by the end of the 5th. Like Correia’s last start, he wasn’t given any favors by the infield defense. Castillo made maybe one of the worst throws I’ve ever seen a major league baseball player make. I’m talking ceremonial first pitch bad. Photographic evidence below.

Click to enlarge

The picture isn’t of the best quality but can you see the tiny white dot in front of the first base umpire? That’s the ball. Also, notice the Dodgers first base coach doing some weird evasive maneuver to escape Castillo’s errant throw. Here’s the scene. James Loney is leading off the bottom of the 5th and he hits a chopper into the hole between first and second. Castillo ranges left, somewhat lazily, into the gap and gets enough glove on the ball to knock it down. He then, with his back turned to the infield, picks up the ball, turns around, and fires a rolling groundball past the first base umpire. The ball clanks around in the foul territory in front of the first base dugout as Bengie Molina scrambles frantically over to pick it up.

And that was just the start of the inning.

Bengie Molina made a very odd play on a Juan Pierre bunt that resulted in a throwing error. Pierre drops a short bunt right in front of home plate. Molina picks up the ball and looks straight at the runner on 2nd — who is half way down the line by this time — and fakes a throw to third base. It was clear that Molina had no shot at the guy moving to third but he tried his best stare down anyways. Molina then turns to first, after the pump fake to third, and fires the ball past Jose Castillo and John Bowker, neither decided to cover first base. The ball flies down the RF line and Pierre ends up on 2nd base. The Giants made two errors on the night, all in the infield, and all in the 5th inning.

Correia lasted long enough to qualify and earn his first win since April 10th. Bochy used Tyler Walker in the 7th inning — after he was quoted in the papers as saying that he would use the dreaded matchups to decide 8th inning work — and let Taschner handle setup duties. Taschner looked good, striking out two hitters in his scoreless inning of work. I still think Taschner is one of our most tradable bullpen pieces and if the Giants can find a match, they’ll move him.

Funny quote from Tasch in the SFGiants.com recap on trade rumors:

“I’ve been a Giant for 10 seasons, since before the turn of the century,” said Taschner, who joined the organization as a second-round Draft choice in 1999. “What happens, happens. That’s the part of baseball you have no control over. All I can control is what I throw for strikes and how good my beard looks.”

Nice. Brian Wilson finished the game with a 14-pitch 9th inning, an incredible economical appearance for Wilson who sometimes pushes 30+ pitches to get a save.

—

Trade Rumors Update: Light update this morning on the Molina-to-the-Marlins story that popped up earlier this week. The Marlins are believed to have narrowed their search for a catcher down to four targets: Bengie Molina, Gerald Laird, Ramon Hernandez, and Ryan Doumit. It’s believed that the Marlins would like to include Mike Jacobs in a trade for a catcher and the Giants reportedly had scouts at the Mets-Marlins game on Monday night.

I’m not big on Jacobs, his power is legit but he strikes out a good bit and has a bad defensive reputation at first. I’m not a believer in “must have JT Snow-like defense” at first base but Jacobs could be one of the worst fielders at that position — he had a -10 in ‘07 by the Fielding Bible. In addition to his contact problems, he’s 27-years-old this year and could be theoretically peaking. Jacobs’ boost in power this year is largely due to an increase on his HR/F%. 19.3% of Jacobs flyballs have left the park this year. His ISO of .266 is a career high as well.

Pablo Sandoval’s success in AA could entice the Giants to conisder Molina trades but I don’t think it will happen for a couple of reasons. First, this team overvalues Molina to an extent. Especially in intangible areas like clubhouse leadership and other nebulous concepts. Molina, whether you want to believe it was a case of GM negotiation tactics or not, has landed on Sabes ‘Do-Not-Trade’ list along with Randy Winn. Statements from Sabean — ignoring the “His clock is winding down” blurb from this year — have tended to praise Molina heavily, he called him the team MVP of ‘07. Second, as much as Bowker has struggled lately, I’d prefer to give him AB’s for the rest of this season than to transplant him to the bench to share time with Jacobs. Jacobs would be a poor platoon partner because he’s struggled to hit LHP in his career and the jury is still out on Bowker’s abilities to handle lefties at the plate. Jacobs would make a little sense for the Giants if the team could move Molina and Winn, creating an open spot for Bowker in the outfield, but I seriously doubt that both Molina and Winn will be traded this year.

The article also hints that the Marlins are looking for a lefty reliever and Taschner could be considered.

You know what I’m talkin’ about.

(10 points to whomever gets the movie reference)

After writing a little yesterday on Fred Lewis and his patient approach at the dish, BCB commenter Delorean reminded me of the great plate discipline data you can pull from FanGraphs. I’ve briefly touched on these stats here at BCB but nothing serious. Today, we’ll examine them in a little more detail. Plate discipline stats are fascinating because you can see when hitters are swinging outside of the strike zone and when they are swinging in the zone, and when they are making contact — both in and out of the strike zone.

We learned yesterday that Fred Lewis sees a lot of pitches when he takes an AB. Just seeing a lot of pitches is only a scratch on the surface, it’s also important to know when he swings and how often he’s making contact from within and outside the strike zone.

I did a few plots for the plate discipline data. Let’s look at the O-Swing and O-Contact numbers first.

O-Swing% is how often a hitter takes a swing outside of the strike zone and O-Contact% is how often a hitter makes contact outside of the strike zone.* Remember, swinging outside of the zone isn’t always a bad thing if you can consistently make contact. Hitters like Vlad Guerrero have made a good living by having awesome plate coverage. My cutoff for these plots are hitters on the Giants that have had at least 150 PA’s. For this plot I’ve sorted our data by O-Swing%, or the most likely to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone.

Season O-Swing Z-Swing  Swing  O-Contact Z-Contact Contact   Zone
2005     20.3%   68.0%  46.0%      51.8%     88.3%   80.8%  53.8%
2006     23.5%   66.6%  46.1%      57.4%     88.5%   81.0%  52.6%
2007     25.0%   66.6%  45.9%      60.8%     88.2%   80.8%  50.3%

Like we noticed yesterday, Molina loves to swing the bat. He’s the Giants hitter that’s most likely to go outside of the strike zone when hitting. We can see from our league average numbers above that from ‘05-’07 your league average hitter went outside of the zone 20-25% of the time. If we use that as a baseline for our hitters, we can see that Molina (36.67%), Bowker (33.04%), Castillo (31.05%), Rowand (30.35%), and Rich Aurilia (27.01%) will all swing outside of the zone more times than your league average hitter. Molina, Bowker, Castillo, and Rowand are especially likely to go outside of the strike zone, they all have O-Swing percentages of 30% or greater. Vizquel (21.35%), Winn (20.73%), Durham (20.16%), and Lewis (18.27%) are less likely than your league average hitter to go outside of the strike zone.

Swinging outside of the zone is one thing, but how often do these hitters make contact when they venture outside of the strike zone? Even though Molina was the most likely Giant to go outside of the zone, he was also the most likely to make contact outside of the strike zone. The league average contact percentage outside of the zone from ‘05-’07 was 51.8-60.8%, that’s almost a 10% spread over three years but if you look at the last two years, hitters have been making more contact outside between 57-60%. Molina (78.79%) and Vizquel (75%) are both excellent at making contact outside of the strike zone. Durham (70.54%), Aurilia (69.42%), Winn (66.9%), Castillo (62.11%), and Lewis (60.9%) all posted above league average percentages — if you use the ‘07 league average of 60.8% as your cutoff — for contact outside of the zone.

What about our new center fielder? Aaron Rowand is a free-swinger — 4th likely on the team to swing outside of the zone — but his contact percentage outside of the strike zone is 48.70%. That’s the worst O-Contact on the team and almost 10-20% below league average. Rowand swings like a power-hitter, but he might do well to refine his approach some and lay off of pitches outside of the zone because he’s had trouble making contact with them. Rowand has always been below average on his contact outside of the zone. His 0-Contact for the last three years stands at 48.19%, 54.04%, and 53.52%

Because I was interested in Lewis yesterday, let’s review his numbers quickly. He’s less likely than your league average hitter when it comes to swinging outside of the zone. His O-Swing this year sits at 18.27% and that’s below the 20.3-25% league average from ‘05-’07. He’s right at league average for contact outside of the zone when he decides to swing the bat. Lewis appears to be very patient and he’s not struggling like Rowand is to make contact outside of the zone when he chooses to swing.

Let’s check out the plot for Z-Swings and Z-Contact, or the percentage of swings a batter takes inside of the zone and the percentage of contact he makes in the zone.

Like I’ve done with the 0-Plot above, I’ve ordered the hitters by Z-Swing%, or by who was most likely to take a swing at pitches in the zone.

The league average hitter swings at pitches inside of the zone anywhere from 66-68% over the last 3 years. Molina (74.05%), Castillo (73.43%), Rowand (72.45%), and Winn (69.24%) are more likely than your league average hitter when it comes to swinging in the zone at pitches. Aurilia (65.34%), Bowker (64.43%), Lewis (62.86%), Vizquel (62.43%), and Durham (62.29%) are less likely to swing at pitches in the strike zone as opposed to your league average hitter. This is where the Giants would like Lewis to swing a little more, when the pitch is in the strike zone. Only Durham and Vizquel took more pitches in the strike zone than Fred Lewis.

From ‘05-’07 the percentage of contact that’s made when a hitter swings inside of the zone has held steady at 88%. Vizquel (96.68%), Bowker (90.97%), and Molina (90.44%) all made contact at 90% or greater when they swung inside of the zone. I wasn’t surprised to see Molina and Vizquel in this group because they seem to be able to get their bats on anything. I was however, surprised to see Bowker in this grouping. Bowker ranked second on the Giants when it came to swinging outside of the strike zone and only Aaron Rowand was worse at making contact outside of the zone. This is where I think Bowker’s next step to becoming a better player — if he takes this step — will occur. If Bowker can swing less outside of the zone and keep himself in the strike zone more, he’ll really benefit as a player. When he swings in the zone he’s making great contact. His tendency to go outside of the zone and miss is what’s hurting him. We all love his swing and the quickness of his bat seems to play well in the zone, the key for him will to be more selective and try not to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.

After Molina, Vizquel, and Bowker, Rich Aurilia was the only other Giants hitter to make contact in the zone at a league average or better percentage. Aurilia made contact within the zone at 89.46%. Winn (86.82%), Durham (86.40%), Rowand (85.68%), Lewis (85.03%), and Castillo (83.55%), all made slightly less contact within the zone than your league average hitter. If Lewis wants to continue to cut his K’s like the Giants wish, it should start with him making more contact within the strike zone. Another reason to not like Castillo is that he doesn’t make good contact inside of the strike zone.

Finally, let’s check out the Zone% for our hitters, or the percentage of strikes they see in the strike zone.

Name	        Zone%
Omar Vizquel	54.60%
Fred Lewis	52.26%
Randy Winn	52.10%
Rich Aurilia	51.67%
Bengie Molina	50.50%
Jose Castillo	50.36%
John Bowker	49.78%
Aaron Rowand	49.24%
Ray Durham	48.47%

From ‘05-’07 the league average Zone% looks as follows: 53.8%, 52.6%, 50.3%.

It’s clear that major league pitchers are challenging Omar Vizquel. He’s seeing the most strikes on the Giants. Pitchers obviously aren’t respecting his (.159/.228/.179) line. It also makes sense that with Lewis’ K problems — 90 punch outs at the half — that he’s seeing the 2nd largest amount of strikes on the Giants. You have to get strikes to strike out and with Lewis being as patient as he is, he’s watching some of those strikes go by. Bowker and Rowand are receiving less strikes than our top hitters because of their tendancy to go outside of the zone and miss. Why throw in the zone — where the league average contact percentage is higher — when you can go outside of the zone and make a batter — in most cases — reduce his chance of contact by nearly 20%?

Wrap up

It’s interesting that the Giants have two young hitters who are basically opposites of each other. John Bowker could use a little more discipline because when he goes out of the zone, he’s probably going to miss. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis isn’t making great contact inside of the zone and he’s not swinging in the zone as much as you would like to see. Because each player in his first full season at the MLB level, we can hope that through coaching, god given abilities, and maybe some luck, they’ll make the needed adjustments.

If you really want to blow your mind, check out Barry Bonds’ plate discipline statistics for the last few years. Just amazing numbers, from ‘06-’07 he only swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 13% of the time. He also made contact within the zone 90%+ of the time. I’d LOVE to see the plate disicipline stats from his peak years of ‘00-’04.

Did Brian Sabean suffer a brain stroke recently?

From the Chron

…Sabean sees a San Francisco team that can contend.

Not in two seasons, not next season, but in 2008.

“As long as we’ve got a chance to stay in and around third place, why not?” Sabean said as he stood along the dugout rail and watched his players take batting practice. “Why wouldn’t you want to think that way? These guys think that way.

These guys are gamers, gritty gamers. They’re rough, tough, dedicated, and can’t really hit all that much. Or play defense that well, either. I know that GM’s like Sabean like to stay positive — or maybe it’s blindly ignoring the obvious — but I can’t help but get twisted the wrong way when I read stuff like this. The Giants haven’t been the worst team in baseball — Seattle or even the Padres might deserve that dubious honor right now — but the Giants have an enormous amount of deficiencies and talk of contention, no matter how starry eyed and whimsical it might be, is just, how do you say, insane?

The formula for success before the season started was three parts. One part speed, one part defense, and one part pitching. Add to a shaker, gently toss, and pour over ice with a marciano cherry on the side. I call this drink ‘Optimistic Failure’ or the ‘08 San Francisco Giants. It might go down smooth the first time, but after a few you’re feeling sickly and wanting an actual third or first baseman that can hit.

Speed? Check. The Giants are 3rd in the majors in stolen bases with a team total of 40. But, even with the large amount of base thievery, the Giants’ offense is still a bottom dweller in the major leagues. Their EqA puts them at 5th worst — ahead of powerhouses such as San Diego, Kansas City, Washington, and Cleveland — out of all 30 teams. This team can steal a base but it can’t necessarily get on base all that well. The Giants are 25th in OBP.

Defense? No-check. In the early parts of this season the Giants have been one of the worst defensive teams in the majors. As a team they are converting 82% of balls, hit into their respective zones, into outs. A league average defensive team in the NL is converting at 83% and what is really hurting the Giants is their infield D. The Giants have the worst infield defense in all of baseball. Read that again if you have to, the-worst-in-baseball. The infield is only converting 73.2% of balls hit in play, into the infield zone, into outs. This is what happens when you give Jose Castillo significant playing time. Castillo is only converting 57.7% of balls in play, in his zone, into outs. 71 balls have been hit into his zone, he’s gotten to 41 of them. That’s amazingly bad. More on Castillo in a bit.

Pitching? Incomplete. We’ve had some great pitching so far in the season. Lincecum has been otherworldly. Cain has gotten better lately. Sanchez has struggled with consistency even though his promise is high. Barry Zito is still trying to learn to pitch with 83mph gas. And a series of injuries and setbacks have hurt SP depth. Correia and Lowry are both injured and can’t be counted on for significant contributions. Pat Misch looks nice but isn’t much more than a 5th starter right now. The league average FIP in the NL is 4.23 and the Giants have a team FIP of 4.32 which while is pretty solid, isn’t the world beating pitching staff that many expected before the season. The way I see it, the Giants have two really good pitchers in Cain and Lincecum and a potential very good pitcher in Sanchez. And then a bunch of question marks after that.

Another quote from Sabes, from the same article. Emphasis mine.

“You’re seven games under .500. That’s where you don’t want to be, but I really feel good about the energy around the club and I feel good about some of our choices. We’ve now got a solution at first base. We’ve got a solution at third. We’ve gotten Omar (Vizquel) back. Freddie Lewis has come into his own and (Emmanuel) Burriss has been a real factor lately.

I don’t think Jose Castillo is actively solving anything at third base. He’s a below average hitter with league worst defense. Once again, the Giants are deferring to intangibles such as “good energy” in a weird attempt to defy scientific logic. The numbers don’t lie, the Giants are probably a 4th place team in the NL West with the collapse of the Padres. Furthermore, the Giants’ standing is really helped by the crash and burn of the Padres and Rockies. Both teams have just fallen completely apart. The Giants might be in third place right now but it’s not because this team is on the rise and making moves. Rather, two other teams in this division have fallen off the charts and whether or not they right themselves is another question but I think mistaking the Giants current position as the byproduct of strength, and not the weakness of the other teams in this division, is bad news.

Freddie, I can agree with. He’s been outstanding and I hope he stays a starter year-long. The Giants would be supremely dumb to give any playing time to Dave Roberts at the expense of young Fred when he comes back. Lewis is the stronger hitter of the two and his defense has been solid — 2nd in the NL for left fielders. You can’t platoon Roberts with Lewis because both have issues against lefty pitching, making Roberts not very useful in the outfield. I can think of at least 2 guys I would play ahead of Dave Roberts right now.

Puff piece or not, I get a little scared at the thought of us sitting around 3rd place — of course, probably 15 games under .500 — near the trading deadline. Will Brian attempt to trade for a playoff push? I can’t tell you because I have a hard time figuring out crazy people. He could very well trade prospects for a crappy 1B or smear himself in grape jelly while running down Lombard Street. It could happen.

With that in mind, Sabean said he does not contemplate moving his most marketable experienced players before the trade deadline, as many rebuilding teams do. Catcher Bengie Molina and outfielder Randy Winn, both signed through 2009, might yield the most in return. But as of now, Sabean plans to keep them

Ugh. I can see the argument for keeping Molina. We have little-to-no depth at catcher right now and if he doesn’t break down, he heads into 2009 as our starter. Fine, I’m cool with that. But Randy Winn? Really, Brian? We’ve got 18 billion outfielders and Randy Winn will be 35 years-old next year. He’s the definition of a guy you should move. A surplus at the position? Check. Semi-valuable commodity that a team could be interested in at the treading deadline? Check. Randy Winn does nothing for the team in this year or next, besides blocking someone like Nate Schierholtz who should be given a shot. Or, I can use the common argument among fans online. Will Randy Winn be on the next good Giants team? And the answer is no. Move him.

Brian Sabean needs to understand that this 2008 team isn’t a good team. And that without changes, the 2009 team won’t be good either. You’ve got to start the process at some point, regardless of how “energetic” this team is playing, it still has major problems and if you can’t evaluate them properly, how good of a job are you doing? I can only hope that as Magowan is on the way out, Sabean goes with him. Or that the new owner has the cojones to deviate from the franchise game plan of the last 10 years. It’s time for change and until someone can frankly and honestly examine this team, change will never come. Instead the Giants seem perfectly happy with selling $15 crab sandwiches and fielding a bad team. At what point do the fans stop coming? It’s already starting to happen and I’d rather not turn into Baltimore West.