While on vacation — and absent any sort of TV or website-checking device — I wondered; had the Giants made any deals? It seems clear at 56-43 and heading into the trade deadline, the Giants are poised to make a couple of moves. Most reports state that the team is looking for a LHP and another bat to add to the lineup. I’m not necessarily a Sabean-basher or supporter, but the general idea of Brian Sabean wheeling and dealing makes me slightly nervous. Yet, the team is certain to make a move and with their current record, it’s not an outlandish idea.

Ignoring the potential LHP acquisition — Will Ohman seems acceptable if cheap — let’s talk about a few hitters the Giants have been linked to.

* Jose Guillen, OF – I love the idea of picking up an outfielder and moving Huff back to 1B. It improves the overall defense and it should keep Huff fresh. However, Jose Guillen is not the outfielder you are looking for. Guillen has had a resurgent year at the plate (.347 wOBA) after posting a .304 wOBA in an injury plagued 2009 campaign. Despite advanced medical skills, Guillen isn’t a good bet to actually help the Giants. Never a strong fielder, Guillen is more of a DH these days. He’s unlikely to be an upgrade over Burrell and he’ll cost prospects in a trade. Mega-pass on Guillen.

*Jorge Cantu, “3B/1B” – Cantu is a little like Guillen in the fact that he’s an average-ish hitter with a cast-iron skillet for a glove. He’s logged over 2,600 career innings at 3B to go with a -14.8 UZR/15o . That’s not good. Cantu’s down year this season on offense (.315 wOBA) should drive down his price. But with his skill-set, I’m not sure why the Giants would really want him. Pass.

*Corey Hart, OF – My original Do Not Want. If the Brewers are smart, they’ll sell high on Hart. Hart’s career has had an up-and-down flight path. He was a 4-win player in ’07 when he posted a .380 wOBA. He followed up his breakout ’07 with back-to-back disappointing years — 1.1 wins in ’08 and 0.7 wins in ’09. Hart is on pace for another 4+ win season (currently sitting at 2.1 wins) as the result of a huge power surge. He’s hitting nearly 70 points of ISO over his career average (.277 vs .209). Hart’s power is legit and he’s always show the ability to drive the ball but his plate approach (6.6% career walk-rate) is below average. He’s not a particularly strong defender, either. Because Hart is having a good year, he’s going to cost more than Guillen or Cantu. He’s a better player, but most discussions with the Brewers seem to indicate that they want Jonathan Sanchez. Filling one hole by digging another doesn’t seem like a solid strategy for the Giants. Pass on Hart for a couple of reasons.

So, really, my strategy is that I don’t want the Giants to do anything. Or at least, not make moves for any of the above three players. That’s easy to say, but the Giants are in a position where they probably should upgrade the team. The problem with Guillen/Cantu is that neither is an upgrade. Hart’s price should scare away the Giants and Brian Sabean has stated he’s not going to trade a SP in the major league rotation. For all his warts, Adam Dunn is semi-interesting. He’s having another solid season (.396 wOBA, 3 WAR) and his defense at 1B — by UZR and some other metrics — seems to be non-horrible this year. The Nats might be willing to move him, but like Hart, he could be expensive. Though, after the recent Dan Haren trade, you never know.

Comment Starter: Your ideal trade target, please.

In our 2009 team projections we learned that, as of now, the Giants are projected as an 82-83 win team. If Brian Sabean did decide to bring in Manny Ramirez to play left field — note, that I’m not saying he will because I doubt it will happen — then the Giants would probably from an improve 82-83 win team to a 84-85 win team.

That’s probably a lot less than you would expect when adding someone who hits DINGERS like Manny Ramirez. Even if you are down on the prospects of Fred Lewis replicating his 2008 season in 2009 — you should hold some skepticism — I’m not sure a net +2 win improvement makes a whole lot of sense to the Giants right now considering the contract they would have to tender to bring in someone like Manny Ramirez. Ramirez will probably get a three year contract in the neighborhood of $60-70M. And if Boras can work his magic, he could get a little more.

It’s not that Ramirez isn’t a good player, he’s a fantastic hitter with defensive problems, but I’m not sure where he fits on the current team. Bumping up the team win production by +2 wins would be huge for the Giants’ playoff chances in a weak NL West — and adversely, you’re taking away a potential +2 wins from the Dodgers — but is that +2 win improvement worth the $22.5M a year that Manny is reportedly seeking?

Here’s the full WAR spreadsheet comparing Fred Lewis and Manny Ramirez’s projected 2009 player values. I also threw in Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell for comparison.

I used CHONE’s defensive projections for Ramirez, Dunn, and Burrell. I will note here that I’m calling Fred Lewis a +6 run defender in LF when CHONE has him projected as a +1 defender. I’m a little uncomfortable calling him a +6 run defender because his overall sample size is pretty small in the outfield, but I think his true talent should play around +6 runs on defense in LF if nothing more than he’s playing against a largely immobile competition. Lewis could fake CF for a few games a year and that’s something you could never say about guys like: Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Manny Ramirez. I’ve used the Olivers for the batter projections.

Even if you bump Lewis down to a +0 defender, he’s really close in value to Pat Burrell. Ramirez, Dunn, and Burrell are all projected to give away nearly a win with their gloves in 2009. That’s the main difference between Fred Lewis and our trio of FA LF’s. Lewis will defend and run the bases much better than any of them.

Back to the question of value. FanGraphs has win values now and over the last four years Manny has been worth: +3.15, +4.21, +2.08, and +6.10 wins. We have Manny projected to +3.29 wins next season. I’ll note that his defense played much better last year than ever before. In most previous seasons in LF Manny has rated as a -20 defender by bUZR/150 but last season he was -6.7 by bUZR/150. If Manny is a +3 win player in 2009 he should be valued at around $15M. You can bet that Manny will get a good bit more than $15M per season.

Final Thoughts

The addition of Ramirez to the Giants would make the team better right-now. But, the dollar amount and deal length are going to be sticking points. In a vacuum, Manny would earn around $45M for a three year contract. He should exceed that by as much as $20M depending on who he signs with. Manny is the jewel of the left field market and, as the win values above show, if the Giants want to commit money to left field they should go with Ramirez. Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell might not even provide one full win over what Fred Lewis will give the Giants.

For a team that’s rebuilding, I’d rather the Giants run with Fred Lewis for another season. When you consider that the Giants are projected as an 82-83 win team without Manny, I would rather take the chance of a few breakout years from younger players than I would on giving a three year deal to Ramirez. We know that despite being a fantastic player, Ramirez will be overpaid. The best case scenario for the Giants is that if they don’t sign Manny, neither does LA.

Comment Starter: Do you want Manny roaming LF in ’09?

I’ve compiled a short list of free agents whom the Giants might be interested in. The list includes their position, FA type, and arb-status.

You’ll notice that our list is composed of mostly relievers, a few middle infielders, and a couple of power-type hitters that might be able to squeeze in at first base. Note that I’m not saying the Giants should sign any of these players, but they are players that the team could have some interest in.

Juan Cruz was linked to the Giants earlier in the offseason but his Type A status should scare the team off. Wood, Howry, and Beimel should be more appealing to the Giants since they were not offered arbitration. I really don’t like Brandon Lyon but his Type B status shouldn’t scare off the Giants. If the Giants signed a Type B player they don’t lose a pick, but the team — Arizona in this case — would get a supplemental pick between the 1st and 2nd round.

You also might be able to see how the middle infield is shaping up now that Orlando Hudson has been offered arbitration. As a Type A free agent, the Giants would lose their 2nd round draft pick to sign Hudson. The same goes for Orlando Cabrera. Does anyone like him? Cabrera offers little upside and his Type A status makes him a non-buy for me. In the end, the Tigers chose not to offer arbitration to Edgar Renteria. Renteria is definitely the Giants #2 choice for shortstop right now, his arb-status made things a little easier.

I was very surprised to see Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell not get arbitration offers — is the economy tougher on some teams than we think? I think on our list of players, Dunn could be the most interesting if he would take up a first baseman’s glove. The market for Dunn, to this point, has been very quiet and I’m wondering if he wouldn’t settle for a 3-year deal? His defense is awful in LF but it might not be as bad at first base. If it’s one thing Dunn can do, it’s hit. His wOBA’s from 2004-2008 are: .403, .391, .365, .399, and .383. That’s steady production and if a team can find some way to offset his negative value on defense, that team could find a bargain. Is he really this undervalued? Hating baseball aside, he’s been a very good hitter during his time in the majors.

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Wanted to share this link, R.J. Anderson of Beyond the Boxscore has a really cool piece on Barry Bonds and Tedd Williams. A very nice read and it turns out that Bonds was brain-meltingly-good.

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Also, one more news item today as the 2009 Hall of Fame Ballots were released. Ricky Henderson is the obvious choice for this years class of players, but former Giant Matt Williams also made the list this year. Williams, always a favorite of mine, spent 1987-1996 with the Giants. He’s probably most remembered for his 1994 season in which he hit 43 HR’s in the strike-shortened season. During his time with the Giants, Williams hit: .264/.312/.498 with 247 home runs. He was a four time All-Star with the Giants in 1990, 1994, 1995, 1996. Williams could hit but he could also field his position quite well. He won the Gold Glove Award three times with the Giants in 1991, 1993, and 1994.

In reality, Williams doesn’t deserve a spot in the Hall, but he was a heck of a Giant. I never got used to seeing him in those ugly pin-striped Diamondback uniforms.