Some data, the top 10 teams in the majors against LHP ranked by wOBA.

sOPS+ is the split version of OPS+, meaning that the Red Sox hit LHP +31% better than your league average offense (when hitting against LHP).

To this point, Bumgarner has spent his entire year in AAA Fresno pitching for the Grizzlies. The results have been both good and bad. He’s still not striking out hitters like he was when he dominated the lower minor leagues — he owns a rather pedestrian 6.15 K/9 in AAA — and it’s likely that in the majors, he’s going to play as more of a 5-6 K/9 guy. Prospecthounds will remember that while pitching in Augusta in 2008, Bummarner posted a K/9 of 10.16. Those days seem long gone. He’s pitched 2 years in a row now with K/9′s closer to 6. The good news is that he’s still throwing strikes — 2.29 walks per 9 in AAA — and his velocity readings have generally been better. Most games he seems to work around 88-92. It’s not the mid-90′s that made him so sexy as a prospect, but often times minor league velocity readings are somewhat exaggerated (see: Williams, Jerome).

Bumgarner’s other development this season has been an uptick in his ground ball percentage. He’s added incrementally to his GB% as he’s gone up each level (A: 41.6%, A+/AA: 42.9%, AAA: 46.2%). He’s reportedly been working on a cutter this year in AAA, too. That could have an impact on his ability to coax more groundballs. Hopefully what we’ll see tonight in Bumgarner, as opposed to his brief time in the majors last year, is a pitcher that works around 90mph most of the time, has a good feel for his fastball, and (hopefully) has improved his slider. Bumgarner’s presence on the roster should also mean an end to the phrase: “Todd Wellemeyer, starting pitcher.” and that’s never a bad thing for a team with playoff aspirations.

Also, Buster is catching tonight. Hallelujah!

So, when Todd Wellemeyer went down with his right quad strain, I was hoping the Giants would recall Martinez. You never wish injury on any ballplayer, but Wellemeyer has been maddeningly inconsistent this year (6.33 FIP, 5.37 BB/9) and when the Giants recalled Martinez I hoped he would impress — or at least be serviceable in his start — to convince the Giants to let him take over 5th starter duties for the time being.

Martinez lost his start against the Orioles but — my personal biases aside — I think he pitched pretty well. Martinez’s ability to throw strikes essentially makes him the anti-Wellemeyer and he was never really hit that hard by the O’s. The O’s seemed to whack a bunch of groundballs that either found holes or were misplayed by the defense. Besides his control, here’s what I really like about Martinez: his 2-seam fastball.

Pictured above is a graph of all the fastballs Martinez threw in his start against the Orioles. As usual, the graph is from the vantage point of the catcher — sitting directly behind the plate. You can see that Martinez’s minor league walk rates aren’t a fluke, he genuinely has a good feel for his fastball and has the ability to throw it for strikes. On the night, Martinez threw 55 fastballs.

Some numbers:

* 34.5% of Martinez’s fastballs went for strikes (Called, Swinging, Foul).
* No batter whiffed on any Martinez fastball — he did have a few whiffs, but they both came on changeups.
* 20% of Martinez’s fastballs were hit on the ground. You can chalk that up to the horizontal movement of the 2-seamer — nearly 8.5 inches on average
* Batters made contact against 43.6% of Martinez’s fastballs.
* The average velocity on Martinez’s fastball is right around 89 mph. He topped out at 91 mph.

I think the graph sums up Martinez pretty well. He’s not going to strike a bunch of hitters out, but his minor league K/9 numbers suggest he has at least some ability to occasionally miss bats. What he will do, however, is pound the zone with strikes while mostly throwing his 2-seam fastball. The 2-seam fastball that Martinez features does have some nice horizontal movement. The pitch will run in on right-handed batters and away from lefties. I’ve likened Martinez to a poor man’s Aaron Cook before and I still think the comparison is appropriate. Both are pitchers that will live and die by the groundball and Martinez has posted a better K/9 in his minor league career as compared to Cook — 7.05 vs Cook’s 6.1. Martinez is better than Todd Wellemeyer right now and until the Giants feel comfortable promoting Bumgarner, he’s a fine option for the 5th rotation slot.

Do the right thing Giants, release Wellemeyer and give Martinez his starts.

Stepping aside from whether or not it’s normal for a 20-year-old to lose 4-6 mph on his fastball, we should ask the question, does velocity really matter all that much for a pitcher? I took this chance to continue my scatter plot kick of late to try and find out. I took every starting pitcher in the majors that tossed at least 100 innings between 2008-09 and then plotted their average velocity on their fastballs by their FIP. All data was pulled from FanGraphs.

A quick note of procedure, I omitted Tim Wakefield from the numbers because as a knuckle-baller, he’s his own creature. He rarely throws a fastball — 10% of the time on average — and when he does, it’s closer to BP fastball at 72 mph. Also, this isn’t meant to be a final statement on velocity and pitcher quality, but more of a sketch than the final word. Quick and dirty.

The graph’s results should be pretty self-explanatory. The harder a pitcher throws, the more likely he is to strikeout hitters, which means less chances for his defense to muck things up. I’m not sure if FIP is the right way to go about this, since it’s already rewarding guys who strike hitters out but I wanted to remove defense from the equation when trying to value a pitcher. I’m open to any suggestions. Still, I think the graph does make a good point. Throwing hard is almost always going to help your average starting pitcher. There are some exceptions: Johnny Cueto of the Reds is a hard-thrower, on average his fastball was clocked at 93.4 mph, but his FIP of 4.9 isn’t particularly appealing. Clearly, velocity only does not a pitcher make. But, overall, we can see that a relationship does exist. It’s  not the only relationship (I assume batted-ball types, control, other pitch-types, LOB%, etc. come in to play) but throwing hard does have it’s advantages.

Two guys I wanted to note are Mike Mussina and Jamie Moyer. Neither throw hard: Mussina at 86.4 mph and Moyer at 81.2 mph. But, should we hold them up as examples for Bumgarner? I don’t think so. Mussina and Moyer might not throw hard, but unlike Bumgarner, they’ve got diverse repertoires. They both have at least 4 pitches — maybe more — that they can use against hitters. Mussina’s curveball was rated well by FanGraph’s pitch-type values, as was Moyer’s changeup and cutter. Bumgarner has been able to locate his fastball well, and there is some deception in his delivery, but the pitch becomes a lot less sexier with the drop in miles-per-hour. Outside of that particular pitch, Bumgarner is still learning to throw his slider and his changeup is a 3rd best pitch in a predominately 2-pitch arsenal.

It seems to me that unless Bumgarner can regain some of his lost velocity with his current set of pitches, he’s going to be in for a bumpy ride in the present. Not may pitchers can thrive off of 1-pitch in a starter’s role and Bumgarner should be no different. If his slider develops and if he can hone his change some more and if he’s healthy, then he could be starting in San Francisco sometime this season for an extended period even without the velocity. But it’s quite clear, at the moment, he should start the year in Fresno. Hopefully the Giants can figure out what’s going on in his very talented arm. If they can, we could be in for a treat.

Yesterday Giants pitchers and catchers (and a few position players, too) found their way down to Arizona for the start of Spring Training. Today is first the official day when pitchers and catchers start working out. On February 23rd the rest of the roster should start trickling in (this article notes that 24 of the 40 players on the 40-man are already in camp) with March 2nd being the mandatory reporting date for anyone not in camp yet.

Some news from the early stages of ST:

~ Aaron Rowand reported to camp about 10lbs lighter according to Andrew Baggarly. Rowand reports his weight loss due to some cycling he did over the offseason and he expects to be quicker and stronger for the 2010 season. Offensively, Rowand has been pretty much the same player in his first 2 years with the Giants, posting wRC+’s of 97 and 96 in each season. Spring Training is the time for optimism, but don’t buy too much into these stories. Everyone is in the best shape of their life, better, stronger, faster, learned a new pitch, fixed a mechanical batting flaw, etc. But players usually play like they always have.

~ Unlike Rowand, Jonathan Sanchez has packed on about 12lbs in an effort to throw harder. Hmm, I’m not sure more weight = more velocity, but if Sanchez can build off of his 2009 season, the Giants would be very pleased.

~ Freddy Sanchez states that he’s ahead of his rehab schedule but still isn’t sure when he’ll have his full range of motion back. He should be able to resume baseball activities within the next couple of weeks. For now, Juan Uribe should be in the lead for the 2B job, but the Giants could always shift DeRosa over to 2B and then move someone like John Bowker into LF. In other injury news, Travis Ishikawa is hurting from 2 torn ligaments in his left foot. He’s wearing a boot right now. Surgery is a possibility if the ligaments don’t heal. If Ishikawa goes under the knife, he could be out for up to 3 months.

~ Todd Wellemeyer is in competition with Madison Bumgarner for the 5th starter’s spot. This contradicts what the team initially said about Wellemeyer when he was signed, calling him a long reliever, but I think most expected Wellemeyer would get his chance in ST. We talked about Wellemeyer, here. He’s not very good, but he should give Bumgarner a chance to work on his secondary pitchers and/or stamina in AAA before the Giants call him up. The other benefit of Wellemeyer is that he’ll keep Bumgarner’s service time in check. Hopefully the Giants will also look at Joe Martinez or Kevin Pucetas as other possible options — both could pitch better than Wellemeyer in the full season and it’s well known that I’m somewhat of a Martinez fan.

And a quick word on Spring Training statistics: don’t worry about them. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs has a nice article on the topic of ST stats. They just aren’t predictive of anything. Things get muddy when you consider parks, sample size, level of competition, and yes, even effort.

For fun, here’s the top Giants hitters last spring by OPS sorted by 50 at-bats.

Name	        OPS
J. Guzman	1.366
P. Sandoval	1.168
A. Torres	1.077
F. Lewis	1.028
R. Aurilia	0.989
T. Ishikawa	0.929
E. Burriss	0.855
E. Velez	0.852
J. Uribe	0.734
K. Frandsen	0.717
B. Molina	0.693
J. Bowker	0.669
R. Winn	        0.628
E. Renteria	0.609
A. Rowand	0.595

We all know that Rich Aurilia went on to great success during the 2009 season!

Wellemeyer’s career stats:

Additional career stats of the batted-ball variety: LD% 19.7, GB% 40, and FB% 40.3.

I was this close to adding Wellemeyer to our post on 5th starter options a couple of weeks ago. If he had been in the post he would have been of the scrap heap variety. Wellemeyer has spent most of his career as a reliever, posting an uninspiring career FIP of 5.07 in the bullpen. In 2008 the Cardinals turned Wellemeyer into a starter and got 191.2 innings of 115 ERA+ starting out of him — or a 4.51 FIP. All told, that season was worth 1.6 wins. Last season Wellemeyer struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness, posting a 70 ERA+ vs. a FIP of 5.31. Any way you slice it (FIP, xFIP, tERA, ERA+) it was a poor season. On the way home from work yesterday I caught a portion of Wellemeyer’s interview on the MLB channel on XM Radio. They asked him about his ’09 and Wellemeyer basically said that after throwing a career high in innings pitched in ’08, his arm wasn’t ready for ’09. He then stated that he’s worked harder this offseason and is in really good shape.

Ignoring that Wellemeyer is in the best shape of his career, his ’08 looks out of line with most of his career. After walking 5.6 hitters per 9 from 2003-07, Wellemeyer chopped his BB/9 rate down to 2.9 walks. That’s a huge step to take but it regressed back to the 4′s last year. I have trouble believing that Wellemeyer really is a 3-ish BB/9 pitcher. He also posted a .273 BABIP to go along with a 76.9% left on base percentage in ’08. Both scream fluke with a return to earth in the following season, which happened. CHONE projects Wellemeyer to throw a 5.14 FIP next season in the starter’s role. It seems like a reasonable projection. If he’s more of a reliever, you can place his FIP closer to 4.75-5 depending on how optimistic you are.

Still, I don’t mind him on team. I would much rather watch 100 IP of Wellemeyer (or Pucetas or Martinez) to start the year than Bumgarner. The Giants are still stating that Bumgarner is in the lead for the final rotation slot, but I’d rather they ease him along a little more. If he shows up to camp throwing 94 mph, I’ll be less worried, but his arsenal of pitches doesn’t seem MLB ready.

It wouldn’t be totally crazy to start the season with Bumgarner in the rotation, but I’m not sure it’s the best situation, either.

The yeas would break it down like this:

• He excelled in the minor leagues
• His velo drop could be the result of his workload and not any physical issues
• The Giants think he’s ready and I’ll trust their judgment. If it’s one thing I trust the Giants on, it’s pitching

The nays respond:

• Outside of his fastball (which was a lot slower in the majors than scouting reports) Bumgarner really only has 1 pitch. It’s a terrific pitch, but it’s all he has.
• He’s yet to top 140 innings of starting in a season. Why not ease him along? Let him develop in AAA (working on pitches and stamina) and then bring him up.
• If you call him up late, you can delay his arb-clock. The Giants might have learned this the hard way with Lincecum.

I have to admit, at this point, I’m siding with the nays. It’s not completely crazy to start Bumgarner in the majors, but it’s also not completely crazy to eat a mayonnaise and broccoli sandwich. Hey, it could be good.

There are a few remaining free agent pitchers on the market — do any of them fit with the Giants? Let’s check them out. I’ve listed 3 groups of pitchers. ‘Could Be Expensive’, ‘Old and/or  Injured’, and the ‘Scrap Heap’. I think each group is self explanatory. Also listed in ()’s is the 2009 pitching stats of that pitcher.

Could Be Expensive

Jarrod Washburn (176 IP, 5.11 K/9, 2.51 BB/9, 4.58 FIP):

Washburn is most likely the best pitcher left on the market. But, buyer-beware, he’s going to need a top-notch outfield defense in front of him. In 2009, Washburn pitched 133 innings in front of Seattle’s monster defense and looked great posting a 2.64 ERA in the process. Traded to Detroit at the deadline, Washburn struggled and posted a 7.33 ERA as his new outfielders were less adept at turning flyballs into outs.  As a flyball pitcher that doesn’t strike out many hitters, whichever team picks him up should pair him with a good defensive outfield. He’s a strike-thrower (career BB/9 of 2.75) that throws a lot of fastballs. Another data point of interest from Washburn’s ’09 season is the number .244 — that’s his BABIP. We expect most pitchers to pitch around a .300 BABIP. CHONE projects Washburn as a 4.70 FIP pitcher in 2010. I can’t see the Giants bidding on Washburn. He’ll probably earn around $4-5M per season and the Giants seem to be done spending big money.

Old and/or Injured

Erik Bedard (83 IP, 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9, 3.55 FIP):

There’s no denying that of the remaining free agent pitchers left, Bedard has the best stuff. But, durability and injury issues place him directly in our ‘old and/or injured’ category. When Bedard is healthy, he’s one of the better pitchers in the game. He works off of a low-90′s fastball and a tough curveball that’s given batters nightmares since he came into the league. By FanGraphs’ pitch values, Bedards curveball has been worth 58.5 runs above the average curve over his career. That’s a great pitch. Bedard rattled off back-to-back +5 win seasons between 2006-07 with Baltimore, but over the past two seasons he’s only pitched around 80 innings per year. When he’s healthy, he’s very good, but there’s a good chance he might not be ready to go until sometime in May. Because of his health, he’ll have to sign a 1-year deal. And because of his health I’m not sure he fits in with the Giants. They need someone at the start of the year that can log time in the rotation to give Bumgarner time. Whichever team that picks up Bedard and can wait for him to get back might just have one of the better bargains of this offseason.

John Smoltz (78 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 3.87 FIP):

The 43-year-old John Smoltz could be an option for a team like the Giants that needs a veteran to hold down the fort until Bumgarner is ready. Because of his age, you can’t really expect Smoltz to pitch more than 100 innings. If Smoltz would take on a role like or not is another question, but he does fill some of the criteria for what the Giants need. His AL tenure was short, but overall he was still an above-average starting pitcher. Much like Randy Johnson, if Smoltz goes down with an injury then you can promote Bumgarner, but he should give the Giants a little breathing room. CHONE has Smoltz projected as a 4.01 FIP pitcher next year. I like the idea of Smoltz in the rotation. Do the Giants?

Pedro Martinez (44.2 IP, 7.46 K/9, 1.61 BB/9, 4.28 FIP):

Martinez is a lot like Smoltz. You can’t expect him to throw more than 100 innings, and he’s not the same pitcher he once was, but he’s still got some value. Pedro doesn’t throw in the mid-90′s any more but he’s got enough secondary pitches to keep hitters honest.

Scrap Heap

Braden Looper (194.2 IP, 4.62 K/9, 2.96 BB/9, 5.74 FIP):

Well, one thing you can say about Looper is that he’ll probably give you 200 innings of baseball and he’ll throw strikes. The former reliever had an awful season in ’09. Despite going 14-7, his underlying numbers weren’t pretty. He doesn’t strike out hitters, he’s not really a groundball pitcher, but he is durable. In this market, Looper is going to have to settle for a minor league deal. He might find his way into Giants camp but I’m not sure he’ll make the rotation. I’m also not sure he’s better than internal options. He’s in the scrap heap for a reason.

Livan Hernandez (183.2 IP, 5.0 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, 4.44 FIP):

This is the Comedy Option. I’m always amazed that year in and year out Livan manages to find work. Teams that need a warm body in their rotation always seem to pick up Livan. Livan’s numbers from 2009 aren’t all that bad. He posted a solid FIP and was worth +1.7 wins. He actually looks to be the best in our scrap heap, so why shouldn’t we be interested? First, Livan’s fastball has slowed in almost each season. In 2002 he was throwing his fastball around 88 mph, it’s closer to 83 mph these days. Second, his K/9 of 5.0 was his highest strike-out rate since 2006. Between 2007-08 Livan was striking out around 3 hitters per 9 — for a guy that doesn’t get groundballs that’s horrific. Livan’s approach is to nibble around the strike zone and let hitters put the ball in play. He mixes in a slider, a slow curve, and a changeup. He could probably throw 200 innings a year until he’s 60-years-old but the Giants can do better. Is it bad when your fastball is slower than Kirk Rueter’s best heat?

—

If the Giants want to bring in FA to pitch in the 5th spot to give Madison Bumgarner more time in AAA, my first choice would be Smoltz. He offers the best chance for above-average pitching and with his age (and injury history) you can only really expect 100 innings or less — making him the perfect candidate to hold down a rotation spot for a young prospect. Ideally when Bumgarner is ready, you could shift Smoltz into the bullpen and let him work from there. If Smoltz is agreeable to this plan, he would be a fine addition to the Giants. Bedard would be nice, but with his injuries I’m not sure he fits the time table for the Giants.

If the Giants want to with internal options, I like Joe Martinez. He’s shown some GB tendencies in his career and he could fill in for Bumgarner until he’s ready. I think I much prefer him to Kevin Pucetas.

Comment Starter: Is Madison ready?