Bay City Ball

Is Jonathan Sanchez gassed?

July has been an ill month for not only Sanchez, but the Giants as a team. Sanchez is currently sitting at 123 innings pitched at the major league level for 2008. In 2007, he amassed 52 innings at the major league level with an additional 23.2 innings at Fresno AAA. That gives Sanchez a total of 75.2 innings pitched in ‘07. Sanchez has made a series of quick exits from his games in July, check out his IP per start over the last 5 games.

Sanchez’s IP per start in July: 5, 4. 5.1, 2.2, 4

Those are Zito-esque performances. Sanchez isn’t staying in games and his control has been problematic. In his last two starts he’s walked 4 in each game and his BB% for July — in a stupidly small sample size of 21 innings — is at 19.5%. You’ll never confuse Sanchez for a pitcher that can paint the corners, he’s more of a “here it is,  hit it” pitcher, but walking hitters nearly 20% of the time isn’t a good sign.

In the Game Scores Plots from earlier in this month, I mused about Sanchez’s workload and how the Giants might handle it.

One thing that I’m worried about after working with these plots is how the Giants are going to handle Sanchez’s workload in the 2nd half of the season. He’s thrown 111 innings already this year and last year, between AAA and the majors, he threw 75.2 innings in total. 23.2 of those 75.2 innings came from Fresno and I’m a believer that major league innings induce more stress and create more wear and tear on a pitchers arm.

I fielded that question to you, the readers, and the response was similar: Protect Sanchez, but let him throw until he starts having problems or until he starts struggling. The problem is, where do you draw the line. How do you exactly know that Sanchez is starting to cross that workload line? His velocity was down last night and his control was poor. Both can be seen as indicators that Sanchez is tired, or going through a “dead arm” period. How he bounces back, if he can bounce back, is the question we must consider.

Sanchez’s situation is difficult because he’s taken a step forward this year. You might not know it by his last 5 starts, but Sanchez will play a very important role in the future of the Giants’ starting rotation. The Giants starting pitching depth isn’t as strong as we believed before the season started. Zito is still ineffective and we don’t know what the future holds for him. I’m guessing it doesn’t hold a return to his glory days. Noah Lowry might not ever start another game in the majors again. His arm troubles still present a huge mountain to climb. Take one of Pat Misch, Steve Hammond, Matt Palmer, and you can round out your rotation. Sanchez might not have the ultimate upside of Cain or Lincecum, but he’s just as important. He adds some stability — when he’s pitching well — and the hope that he can continue to progress as a starter.

In the wrap up, Sanchez is saying that fatigue isn’t an issue:

Sanchez continued to insist that he’s not fatigued, although his 123 innings are 2 2/3 short of his professional career high.

“I didn’t have it today, but I’m not tired,” he said.

The Giants need to continue to monitor Sanchez closely, devise a plan*, and stick with it.

*This plan does not include the “Throw more pitches, girly man” strategy of past Giants managers.

—

I can handle watching Sanchez struggle, he might have a future. But, what I can’t stand, is watching Bruce Bochy continue to start Omar Vizquel and Jose Castillo. I’ve covered Omar ad nauseum and my distaste for Castillo is known. They are not getting showcased, they are not getting traded, so why are they playing? You can’t showcase a short stop who can’t hit over .200* and you can’t showcase a terrible defensive utility man who doesn’t hit enough or defend enough to make it on any team with playoff aspirations.

It’s mind boggling. Truly, mind boggling.

Now, in a lineup related gripe, here’s your WBQOTW:

Manager Bruce Bochy indicated Tuesday that Castillo, who has started 83 games at third base, is receiving a chance to prove himself at second, where he was a regular for Pittsburgh from 2004-06.

“We want to take somewhat of a look at him,” Bochy said.

And if that wasn’t enough, here’s one to grow on:

Entering Tuesday, Castillo had accelerated his offensive pace, batting .323 (10-for-31) in his previous eight games. Castillo’s 37 extra-base hits, including 27 doubles, were tied for second-most on the team.

“I like the way he swings the bat,” Bochy said.

First, selective stats like this drive me crazy. Over a selected 8 game period, Castillo wasn’t truly horrible. Give that man a starting job! Small. Sample. Size. It’s also the same selective stats that I’ve heard used with Omar Vizquel. Did you know from July 13rd to July 23 Omar hit (.471/.500/.647), clearly he’s back as a player and we should just ignore the previous 200 AB’s that he accumulated to this point.

Second, you like the way he swings a bat? He’s second on the team in extra-base hits? Jose Castillo is a bad hitter on a terrible hitting team, this does not make him a good hitter. Sure, I could probably dominate T-Ball if I wanted to, but that doesn’t make me skilled at the game of baseball. Castillo has never been a good hitter, he plays bad defense, and what part of his (.258/.308/.407) line excites you, Bruce? Is this how far we’ve fallen? Has Jose Castillo become an attractive player for the Giants? We moved the statue of Ray Durham and replaced him with … Jose Castillo? One step forward, seven backwards.

—

The trading deadline officially ends today at 4PM EST. I’ll trade you two busted veterans and an overweight catcher for a Jeff McKnight autographed baseball card. Deal?

Expert Analysis: Kevin Correia, he’s pretty good until that one inning where he’s not.

Here’s the pitch count by inning for Correia in last nights 7-6 win over the Dodgers. See if you can find where the trouble started.

Inning    PC#
  1       12
  2       11
  3       10
  4       14
  5       36
  6*      7

* Didn’t pitch the full inning, retired one batter, gave up a hit and was pulled.

The Giants hung a 7-0 lead on the Dodgers by the 4th and Correia almost gave it all back by the end of the 5th. Like Correia’s last start, he wasn’t given any favors by the infield defense. Castillo made maybe one of the worst throws I’ve ever seen a major league baseball player make. I’m talking ceremonial first pitch bad. Photographic evidence below.

Click to enlarge

The picture isn’t of the best quality but can you see the tiny white dot in front of the first base umpire? That’s the ball. Also, notice the Dodgers first base coach doing some weird evasive maneuver to escape Castillo’s errant throw. Here’s the scene. James Loney is leading off the bottom of the 5th and he hits a chopper into the hole between first and second. Castillo ranges left, somewhat lazily, into the gap and gets enough glove on the ball to knock it down. He then, with his back turned to the infield, picks up the ball, turns around, and fires a rolling groundball past the first base umpire. The ball clanks around in the foul territory in front of the first base dugout as Bengie Molina scrambles frantically over to pick it up.

And that was just the start of the inning.

Bengie Molina made a very odd play on a Juan Pierre bunt that resulted in a throwing error. Pierre drops a short bunt right in front of home plate. Molina picks up the ball and looks straight at the runner on 2nd — who is half way down the line by this time — and fakes a throw to third base. It was clear that Molina had no shot at the guy moving to third but he tried his best stare down anyways. Molina then turns to first, after the pump fake to third, and fires the ball past Jose Castillo and John Bowker, neither decided to cover first base. The ball flies down the RF line and Pierre ends up on 2nd base. The Giants made two errors on the night, all in the infield, and all in the 5th inning.

Correia lasted long enough to qualify and earn his first win since April 10th. Bochy used Tyler Walker in the 7th inning — after he was quoted in the papers as saying that he would use the dreaded matchups to decide 8th inning work — and let Taschner handle setup duties. Taschner looked good, striking out two hitters in his scoreless inning of work. I still think Taschner is one of our most tradable bullpen pieces and if the Giants can find a match, they’ll move him.

Funny quote from Tasch in the SFGiants.com recap on trade rumors:

“I’ve been a Giant for 10 seasons, since before the turn of the century,” said Taschner, who joined the organization as a second-round Draft choice in 1999. “What happens, happens. That’s the part of baseball you have no control over. All I can control is what I throw for strikes and how good my beard looks.”

Nice. Brian Wilson finished the game with a 14-pitch 9th inning, an incredible economical appearance for Wilson who sometimes pushes 30+ pitches to get a save.

—

Trade Rumors Update: Light update this morning on the Molina-to-the-Marlins story that popped up earlier this week. The Marlins are believed to have narrowed their search for a catcher down to four targets: Bengie Molina, Gerald Laird, Ramon Hernandez, and Ryan Doumit. It’s believed that the Marlins would like to include Mike Jacobs in a trade for a catcher and the Giants reportedly had scouts at the Mets-Marlins game on Monday night.

I’m not big on Jacobs, his power is legit but he strikes out a good bit and has a bad defensive reputation at first. I’m not a believer in “must have JT Snow-like defense” at first base but Jacobs could be one of the worst fielders at that position — he had a -10 in ‘07 by the Fielding Bible. In addition to his contact problems, he’s 27-years-old this year and could be theoretically peaking. Jacobs’ boost in power this year is largely due to an increase on his HR/F%. 19.3% of Jacobs flyballs have left the park this year. His ISO of .266 is a career high as well.

Pablo Sandoval’s success in AA could entice the Giants to conisder Molina trades but I don’t think it will happen for a couple of reasons. First, this team overvalues Molina to an extent. Especially in intangible areas like clubhouse leadership and other nebulous concepts. Molina, whether you want to believe it was a case of GM negotiation tactics or not, has landed on Sabes ‘Do-Not-Trade’ list along with Randy Winn. Statements from Sabean — ignoring the “His clock is winding down” blurb from this year — have tended to praise Molina heavily, he called him the team MVP of ‘07. Second, as much as Bowker has struggled lately, I’d prefer to give him AB’s for the rest of this season than to transplant him to the bench to share time with Jacobs. Jacobs would be a poor platoon partner because he’s struggled to hit LHP in his career and the jury is still out on Bowker’s abilities to handle lefties at the plate. Jacobs would make a little sense for the Giants if the team could move Molina and Winn, creating an open spot for Bowker in the outfield, but I seriously doubt that both Molina and Winn will be traded this year.

The article also hints that the Marlins are looking for a lefty reliever and Taschner could be considered.

B-E, A-G-G-R-E-S-S-I-V-E.

Now I’ve got that Faith No More song stuck in my head.

* Side note: Any FNM fans out there? What’s your favorite album? I’m a big fan of Angel Dust but Album of the Year always hits a soft spot for me as well.

After initially hitting on it some in my last post, I got to wondering about Zito’s constant comments of ‘not being aggressive enough’ and how they related to his success, or lack thereof. I decided to take all of his data from 2002-2008* and plot his Strikes% or how many times hitters saw strikes from Zito in a game. My theory was that the more strikes a pitcher is throwing — called strikes, swinging strikes, pitches fouled off — the better that pitcher should do. That seems incredibly simple and it is.

* I didn’t use his 2001 season as a starter because Fangraphs didn’t go back that far for gamelogs. You can call me lazy but FanGraphs has a really nice feature where you can export whole sets of data as an Excel file. Thanks to FanGraphs, without your Excel export feature this would have taken way more longer than the couple of hours it took.

But, putting simplicity aside, I wanted to know at which percentages does Zito have the best chance of succeeding as a pitcher. Is he trending in a new direction? Is that direction good or bad? These are a few of the questions that I wanted to answer before I set out to try and understand what it really means for Zito to be ‘aggressive’.

Operationalization

I wanted to define that various levels of control that Zito has. I decided to break it down into the following five categories.

1. Walk Machine - Less than 55% strikes in a game.
2. Nibblin’ - 55-60% strikes in a game.
3. Average - 60-65% strikes in a game.
4. Aggressive - 65-70% strikes in a game.
5. Strike Machine - Greater than 70% strikes in a game.

For comparison, Zito’s career Strike% has been as high as 64% in in ‘02 — the Cy Young year — and as low as 59% in ‘06. As of now, his career Strike% is at 61%.

Let’s run through the numbers and see what I found.

I’ll go ahead and note that I’ve added BB/9, K/9, and K/BB for each category in addition to the overall numbers for that category. I generally dislike X/9 stats because they extrapolate everything to a theoretical 9-inning game, percentages based on PA’s are more accurate but for our needs, it’s a quick and dirty stat that will give us some context.

Walk Machine
19 Career Starts
6.61 ERA, 96.2 IP, 71 ER, 67 SO, 84 BB
7.82 BB/9, 6.24 K/9. 0.80 K/BB

Nibblin’
77 Career Starts
ERA 4.43, 459.1 IP, 226 ER, 312 SO, 243 BB
4.76 BB/9, 6.11 K/9, 1.28 K/BB

Average
82 Career Starts
3.33 ERA, 534.2 IP, 198 ER, 377 SO, 189 BB
3.18 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, 1.99 K/BB

Aggressive
44 Career Starts
ERA 3.36, 299.2 IP, 112 ER, 224 SO, 67 BB
2.01 BB/9, 6.72 K/9, 3.34 K/BB

Strike Machine
6 Starts
3.52 ERA, 38.1 IP, 15 ER, 35 SO, 3 BB
0.7 BB/9 , 8.22 K/9, 11.67 K/BB

Discussion Points

1. You can see that for Zito’s career — and I’m assuming this is true for every pitcher — the more strikes thrown the better. Just by increasing strikes thrown — swinging, fouled off, or called — by an additional 5% to go from Nibblin’ to Average resulted in taking off a little more than a full run from Zito’s ERA. That’s the difference between a back-end rotation starter and a front-end rotation starter.

2. The categories of Average and Aggressive are nearly identical. I found this interesting. The K/9 rates for both are very similar and the only noticeable difference is the BB/9’s, Aggressive was nearly a walk per nine innings lower.

3. Strike Machine was very good but it’s a very small sample. Only 38.1 innings classifies as a Strike Machine. The ERA for this category is actually higher than Aggressive and Average. Chalk it up as a small sample size because 6 starts is microscopic over the season for a pitcher.

4. Over his career when Zito is throwing strikes at a percentage of 60%+ he’s been a successful pitcher but remember that the bulk of these numbers come from his earlier days in Oakland when he was playing in front of superb defenses — not the case with the ‘08 Giants.

To get a visual, I plotted the Strikes% from Zito from ‘02 to the current season of ‘08. I added a linear trend line to show any trends.

You can see that for most of this graph, Zito was above the 60% strike rate that we found he was most successful at. But, if you’ll notice the trend is moving downward and he’s started to dip under that magical 60% mark. I’ll also add that throwing strikes is clearly beneficial for a pitcher, but a theory of mine is not only has Zito started to loss control, but that he’s lost pitch quality as well. The dip in velocity is one indicator of that loss of pitch quality.

During Zito’s peak years of ‘01-’03 he played in front of one of the best defenses in the game. In 2001 Oakland was ranked as the 2nd best defense in the game by defensive efficiency. In 2002, they were 6th and in 2003, they were 2nd. The Oakland defense surely helped Zito in ‘03 when hitters make contact against him 83% of the time, a career high for Zito at that time. Hitters are now making contact against Zito at a rate of 84%, a new career high.

Zito’s strikes swinging percentage has also dipped this year. I’ve taken strikes swinging to be a good indicator of pitch quality. The better a pitch is, the harder it should be to hit it. Earlier this year Zito’s strikes swinging percentage was around 8%, which is extremely low for a guy not trying to induce groundballs over and over. His strikes swinging percentage has raised some, it’s now up to 11% but that’s still a career low for Zito. During his peak years of ‘01-’03, Zito’s strikes swinging percentage was 17%, 16%, and 12%. Once again, the Oakland defense in ‘03 must have really helped out Zito.

So, we are seeing a pitcher who’s trending downward in the ability to consistently throw strikes and a pitcher who’s letting hitters make more contact against. You then stick that pitcher in front of one of the worst defenses in the National League and you’ve got the 2008 version of Barry Zito.

Here’s the plot for Zito’s strikes percentage since he joined the Giants.

We learned above that Zito experienced the most success when he was throwing strikes at rate of 60% or greater. But, that comes with a new caution. Zito has lost something on his pitches and he’s playing in front of a poor defense. So, the old rule of finding success at 60%+ may have changed and it’s not something we’ll be able to figure out in the present. But, for arguments sake, say that we stuck to that rule of 60% or greater for his strikes thrown and you can see one of the reasons why Zito has struggled since he came to the Giants. He’s not throwing strikes as much as he used to. Using our 60%+ as a cut-off, you can see that Zito has pitched under that quite a few times as a Giant. Remember, the difference between the Nibblin’ classification and the Average classification is over one full run in ERA. That’s assuming that Zito has the same “stuff” and is playing in front of the same excellent defense from years past when he accumulated the bulk of these numbers, both of which aren’t true anymore.

Strikeless In San Francisco

The big question is “Why?”. Why is Zito losing the ability to throw strikes? Why is he trending downward?

A couple of my theories.

1. First and foremost, he has an arm injury or a physical condition that’s preventing him from throwing, releasing, or controlling the ball in the same way he used to. Zito has never been a control pitcher but his current BB% of 13%+ is a career worst. The loss of control — in Zito’s case, the worsening — can be a indicator of arm troubles. We saw it with Noah Lowry last year when his BB% rose to the neighborhood of 12%. I can’t say for certain if Zito is injured or not, but the loss of velocity and control are injury indicators.

2. Since Zito became a full-time starter in 2001 he’s thrown a lot of innings and pitches. From ‘01 to ‘06 Zito threw 210 innings or greater, not including additional post-season work. We shouldn’t penalize Zito for being durable but he may have started to cross the line between durable and injured somewhere along the way. This is more of a sub-point to the first point I listed, but Zito has shouldered a large workload in his early career. At one point does it become too much? That’s the million dollar question.

3. He’s made mechanical changes in his delivery that have affected his ability to throw strikes. I generally consider mechanical changes a response to health problems. Like the saying goes: “If it ain’t broke, why fix it?” but let’s assume that for whatever reason Zito has changed his mechanics in a non-injury related way. The talk of Zito’s first Spring Training was that he was changing his delivery. This sent everyone into a frenzy — would you like your new $126M pitcher changing what made him good? — and Zito eventually scrapped his new look. We do know that he’s experimented with a lower arm-slot this year in an attempt to regain velocity.

All three of my explanations are related to health problems. Whether it be an out-and-out injury, workload issues, or mechanical changes, they all link back to the physical health of Zito. I can’t believe that he just lost his velocity and control over night. That’s a bit of hyperbole because it didn’t just happen over night. What amazes me is that all the concerns that came with Zito somehow slid past the Giants’ scouts, front office, and talent evaluators. How could anyone not see some of the potential red flags with Barry Zito? Hindsight is 20/20 but everyone had some concerns about Zito. Did the Giants bet against the back-end of Zito’s deal? I think so. I’m sure that the Giants knew that Barry Zito had some indicators that they didn’t like, but they hedged their bets that he could be a good pitcher for the front-end of the deal and they could worry about the back-end when it got there. It’s truly amazing that the Giants have made Zito the centerpiece of their new era, at least for the next 5 years.

It’s such a “Giants” thing to do, too. When the franchise started to get some legs, maybe develop a farm system, they chained the biggest sports contractual blunder ever to their ankles and then tried to go swimming.

In conclusion, while being aggressive (read: throwing more strikes) worked for Zito in the past, I think he has serious concerns about pitch quality and health that just by being aggressive alone he won’t be able to overcome. It looks like Zito phsyically can’t be aggresive or throw strikes consistently. Sticking him in front of a terrible defense — remember how we were going to win games by defense? — hasn’t helped Zito at all. If Zito continues trend downard into the sub-levels of less than 60% strikes thrown, things are really going to get ugly. Sometimes I try to think what Barry Zito will look like in 2013 and all I can think about is a smoking carcas.

Question: Barry Zito has just thrown another poor start and he’s talking to the press. Which quote will he give?

A. My arm feels like a bag of sand and I can’t hit 84 miles-per-hour anymore.

B. I’m rich, bitch.

C. I’m not being aggressive enough. I’ve got to start being more aggressive.

—

You know the answer by now if you’ve read any Zito article after a bad start. I’ve bolded the good parts. From the Chron:

“I was just nit-picking out there instead of being aggressive,” said Zito, whose three fourth-inning walks (not counting the intentional walk he issued) included one to Chris Snyder with the bases loaded. “There’s no excuse for it. Instead of going with the approach that worked for me the past few games, just pitching free and easy, I went back to grinding.

/looks up the word ‘Aggressive’

Maybe Barry is on to something.

I’d love to pose a question to Zito on the topic of being aggressive. When you pitch well, you were aggressive. When you don’t pitch well, you are not aggressive enough. The question is: How can you forget what works for you just 5 days previous? If it’s just as easy as being aggressive, why aren’t you aggressive all the time? The worsening of control can be seen as an indicator of arm injury and the further Zito goes down this path, the more I wonder how healthy his arm is.

Zito’s pitch quality and control has evaporated. In yesterday’s loss, Zito’s 13th on the season, Zito walked 5 batters. Including a bases loaded walk to Snyder to force in a run. Zito has started 21 games this year and he’s walked 4 or more 10 times. That’s almost half of his games. He’s walked 6 twice, 5 four times, and 4 four times. He only has one game on the season where he did not walk anyone.

Zito’s BB% is now at a grossly large 13.3%, the highest ever for Barry Zito. His K% is at 13.8%, he’s barely striking out more hitters than he’s walking. That’s a tightrope that Zito is walking and one that he’s falling off of more often than not. In ‘07 the league average BB% was 8.5% in the National League. It tends to be slightly higher in the American League because of the DH, but you want to see your pitchers around 8% on average. Going beyond that, especially when you’re into the low-teens like Zito, is a trend for trouble.

Watching Zito throw is excruciating. He constantly floats pitches up and away. You cannot pitch up in the zone when you have no control and you’re topping out in the mid-80’s. Sunday’s game against the D-Backs was the typical Zito showing. No control, everything up in the zone, and a bloated pitch count by the 5th. When can I get off this ride?

Moving Zito to the side, this was the most painful event of the weekend. Lincecum matches Brandon Webb step for step while punching out 13 hitters. Tyler Walker is summoned for the 8th inning and promptly gives up a leadoff double to Augie Ojeda. Augie. Ojeda. Ojeda is a minor league journeyman that’s latched on with the D-Backs for the last couple of years but you cannot, you cannot, give up a leadoff double to Augie Freakin’ Ojeda. He’s 33-years-old and the owner of a career batting line of (.238/.319/.319). You just can’t do that. Ever. Walker wasn’t helped by an error by John Bowker — his defense has really been rough lately — but it seems that Walker has this knack of melting down at the worst possible times.

Last I checked, Walker was the 2nd highest leveraged reliever on the Giants because Bochy has time and time again put him in high leveraged (read: tough, game changing) situations. Bochy loves to give his bullpen defined roles and let them stick with it, for better or worse. Stop putting Tyler Walker in these situations and see if anyone else in the bullpen can handle them. Hinshaw, Romo, or anyone. At least if and when they blow the lead, I can accept it as a learning experience. Walker has no future, no upside, and nothing left to learn. Evaluate our youth so that we can apply it to the future. I think Bochy has to, and already is, considering this.

Rough weekend for G’s fans.

Switching back to Sundays game for second, Fred Lewis became the first ever left-handed hitter to get 4 hits in a game off of Randy Johnson. How cool is that? Lewis went 4-5 and hit two doubles off of RJ. The bunion is still an issue for Lewis but hopefully he can play through it because he’s taken a huge step forward as a player this year and it would be supremely unfortunate to lose him for the rest of the season to injury. The look on Fred’s face after Johnson tossed him an eephus pitch in the first inning was the highlight of my weekend.

Comment Starter: Crappiest weekend ever for Giants baseball?

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Link Swap

~ Very nice article on the Hardball Times on the ‘08 Draft which includes an evaliation of Giants draftpick — yet to be signed — Conor Gillaspie.

~ Various trade rumors: The Tigers could be watching Taschner. The Marlins might be interested in Bengie Molina. Randy Winn could be a 2nd tier OF that the Mets might be intersted in with Nady off the market.

~ For the PITCH/FX inclined, a very cool interview with Josh Kalk, owner of the Web PFX Tool.

Thoughts after last night’s 6-4 win over the Washington Nationals

~ Washington might have one of the ugliest lineups in the National League. If you thought the Giants were punchless, have you seen the Nats? Injuries have decimated Washington, transforming their lineup into a graveyard of bad hitters. Willie Harris, Paul Lo Duca, and Ryan Langerhans should never get a total of 12 AB’s in a game for your team. When you’re playing a combination of Paul Lo Duca — who’s slugging .306 this year — and Ronnie Belliard — who’s hitting more than Paul, but I’ve never seen a 5′8″ first baseman — at first base, you’re in trouble.

~ I didn’t actually see the entire game because I’m on the East Coast. During the work week I just can’t hack, most of the time, games that start at 10PM, by the 6th inning I’m usually asleep. But, despite not seeing the entire game, I was a little surprised to see Correia’s final line this morning. He looked decent through 5 innings, not great, but decent. His final line was:

5.2 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR

After I went to bed in the 5th inning, Correia hit a rough spot in the 6th. He gave up a 2-run HR to Jesus Flores. He then gave up another run on a single to Estrada that scored Ryan Langerhans, who had doubled before Estrada. Correia was fortunate to get out of the inning without giving up more runs. Before Langerhans hit, Felipe Lopez singled and was thrown out trying to steal 2nd base. The 12 hits that Correia gave up were most likely a byproduct of the Giants porous infield defense. The Giants infield is bad at turning balls hit into play into outs. They rank as the 2nd worst infield defense in the National League, they are -37 outs below average in the infield. Only Pittsburgh is worse. In addition, the Giants rarely make plays out of their zones, ranking dead last in OOZ, indicating that the infielders are statuesque defenders with zero range. If you don’t hit the ball right at one of our infielders, they aren’t going to get it. Correia gave up 16 groundballs last night in front of one of the worst infield defenses in the league, it’s not hard to see why he gave up so many hits.

Edit: I had my defensive numbers crossed up. The team is not a -37 by infield, but by overall team defense. That includes both the infield and outfield. Still, the team has below average infield defense. If you use RZR for your metric, only the Mets, Marlins, and D-Backs have weaker defense in the infield. The OOZ statement still stands, the Giants infielders make the least amount of plays outside of their defensive zones.

Still, since Correia returned on June 15th from his oblique injury, he’s not been sharp or the same pitcher we saw at the end of ‘07. His overall line since he returned:

32.1 IP, 47 H, 25 R, 24 ER, 15 BB, 22 SO, 4 HR, 6.68 ERA

Is he still hurting some? Giants fans will know the problems associated with oblique injuries by watching Noah Lowry come back too fast and struggle to be consistent. The good news was that Correia did not issue a walk last night. Ideally, I would give Correia another 3-4 starts to see if he can pitch well, but I wouldn’t mind seeing the Giants call up newly acquired Steve Hammond to audition for the 5th starters job. Pat Misch or Matt Palmer could also be distant 6th and 7th starter options.

~ Nats GM, Jim Bowden, has never been confused with a top talent GM, but I think he makes the occasional good move. I love his acquisition of Jesus Flores. Flores, who was a Rule 5 Draft acquisition from the Mets, is a 23-year-old catcher with offensive upside and if I’m not mistaken, a solid defensive reputation. He broke out in his age 21 season in the FSL, the Mets left him unprotected, and the rest is history. He’s still raw at the plate, but he’s got some nice power that you don’t always find at the catchers position. He’s currently hitting (.286/.340/.464) in ‘08 and has shown glimpses of the talent that the Mets are surely missing.

~ Please stop starting Omar, Bruce Bochy. Omar won’t boost his trade value by slapping a couple of singles before the trading deadline and his supposed reduced role on the team has never materialized. Quotes like this are the ones that scare me the most:

Already, Bochy is rethinking his plan to rest Vizquel and an equally hot Bengie Molina today. Finally, Vizquel said after his first three-hit game since May 15, he is starting to feel it with the stick.

I don’t get the logic. Omar stinks it up for most of the season but he goes 6 for 17 over a few games and all the sudden he’s back? Really, Bruce? Really? I seriously doubt that Omar will be traded at the deadline and if he’s still starting after the deadline, so-help-me-god…

~ Former Giants reliever, Steve Kline, has announced his retirement. Kline was trying to hang on in the Phillies organization, pitching for their AAA team that’s aptly named the Iron Pigs, but was released a month ago.

Comment Starter: Worried about Kevin? If not, why? And if so, who would you replace him with?

You might notice that BCB looks a little different today. I’ve decided to change the layout because I was starting to run into some problems with our past theme. Mostly minor stuff.

This theme is a lot like the last one, it’s pretty basic and simple. That’s what I enjoy about webpages. Give me barebones over flashy any day of the week. But, because I’m concerned with how viewers can access and view this site, let me know if anything is broken or even if you totally hate the new theme. I think it reads well but I’m open to debate.

User accounts should be untouched by the theme change. So, feel free to login and comment away. I’ll have to tweak the theme here and there, maybe add a new logo, but other than that, this is it.

Thanks for reading.

Getting back to the blog on a Monday afternoon. You’ll have to excuse me if I discuss a few news items that are already a day or two old, but I wanted to hit on them regardless.

Our big news item of the day is a trade. The Giants cash in Ray Durham for two prospects in a deal with the Brewers. I’m using the term prospects loosely because the two players the Giants got in return for Durham aren’t really anything special, but then again, it’s about what the maximum return would be for a 36-year-old second baseman. Durham will go to the Brewers as a bench bat and occasional starter but because he can’t play anywhere else on the diamond, the Brewers options with him are limited. Still, for a team making a playoff push, Durham isn’t a bad piece to add.

In return for Durham the Giants pick up Darren Ford and Steve Hammond. Ford is a 22-year-old outfielder who is insanely speedy but offers little else in his bag of tricks. The Brewers drafted him in ‘04 in the 18th round but he didn’t play pro-ball until ‘05. Since his debut, he’s stolen a total of 193 bags. In ‘07 he did well in the South Atlantic League while playing for the West Virginia Power. Over 224 AB’s he hit (.335/.390/.504) with 15 2B’s, 4 3B’s, and 5 HR’s. He was promoted to the Florida State League mid-season but struggled over 273 AB’s, hitting only (.231/.317/.308). The Brewers left Ford in the FSL to start this year and the results are shockingly similar to his ‘07 run. His line of (232/.321/.307) is virtually identical.

Ford’s problem is that for speed guy, he K’s a ton. In his brief minor league career his K% has been over 20% at each level. When he crushed the SAL his BABIP was an unsustainable .429 and when he’s struggled in the FSL it’s been right around the normal level of .300. He’s walking some — a BB% around 11% in his two stints in the FSL — so he might have an idea of what the strike zone is. Ford was named the fastest baserunner and best defensive outfielder in the Brewers farm system by Baseball America. Ford will be a tough project for a team that hasn’t historically — in recent times — developed hitters well. He profiles as a lead-off hitter that can play a defensively solid center field.

The second player acquired for the Giants is 26-year-old LHP Steve Hammond. Hammond is your traditional crafty lefty without overpowering stuff. I’ve heard him described as a sinker-slider guy that needs to keep the ball down in the zone to have success. His career minor league numbers don’t look bad: 3.55 ERA, 474 IP, 2.72 BB/9, 7.58 K9. It should be noted that he’s struggled the most in AA and AAA. He hit a bump in ‘07 in AA but pitched well enough in AA in ‘08 to be promoted to AAA, where he hit a small bump in a very small sample size of just 17 IP — mostly due to being homer unlucky, giving up 6 jacks in those 17 innings. He should slide into the Fresno rotation and might get a look as the Giants 5th starter at some point in this year. I’m still not sold on Correia’s health and between Misch, Hammond, and Palmer the Giants have some options they can check out. Hammond’s upside is small to non-existent because of his age, but his role could be a 5th starter or long reliever.

Ray Durham looked toast after his ‘07, but he rebounded enough this year to give the Giants something. I think if you told anyone last year about this trade they would have looked at you funny. After glancing over Durham’s career statistics, it got me to thinking how he ranked in the modern era — 1956 to the present — for Giants 2B.

Top-10 Offensive Seasons by Giants Second Basemen. Ranked by OPS+ and a minimum of 502 PA’s.

  Cnt Player            **OPS+**  YEAR
+----+-----------------+--------+------+
    1 Jeff Kent            162    2000
    2 Jeff Kent            147    2002
    3 Bill Madlock         144    1978
    4 Jeff Kent            142    1998
    5 Joe Morgan           136    1982
    6 Robby Thompson       135    1993
    7 Jeff Kent            131    2001
    8 Robby Thompson       128    1991
    9 Ray Durham           127    2006
   10 Jeff Kent            124    1999

Hey, that’s not a bad showing at all. Durham cracks the Top-10 on a list that’s dominated by the best Giants 2B of all-time, Jeff Kent. Durham’s 2006 season has him at the 9-spot for the best season in the modern era for Giants second basemen. In addition to Kent, he’s in some outstanding company of Joe Morgan, Robby Thompson, and Bill Madlock. He also finished at just outside of the list at 11th and once again at the 18th position. If you lowered the requirements to 400 PA’s, Durham pops up a few mores times but not in the Top-10. Durham was a good Giant and I’ll be rooting for him with the Brewers.

Now that Durham leaves the Giants, second base is wide open. The Giants will probably toss out any combination of Denker, Burriss, Velez, and Ochoa at the position to see who sticks. I’ll give the nod to Denker for now — even though he’s not on the team — he’s the only one out of the group that has any upside with the bat. Denker’s bat still has questions, but Burriss, Velez, and Ochoa all have very weak bats. Burriss should be starting at SS. I don’t have much faith in Velez and Ochoa is Ochoa.

Quick Thoughts

~ Watching Geno Espineli throw for the first time was awesome. A lefty that wears stirrups and throws from a cross-body sidearm motion? I’m sold. His stuff is average but he’s had good results in the minors. He kinda reminds me a little of Sergio Romo, not much upside stuff-wise, but gets results. I hope he sticks. But seriously, Dan Rohn, the Giants AAA manager, is one harsh dude. Geno is up because Yabu was sent to the DL with an injured finger. I’m starting to think the end of Yabu-san is getting close.

~ Bochy Hate ++. Sometimes I don’t mind Bochy but there are times when he drives me insane. So, you’re young ace is coming off a hospital visit where he was dehydrated. In his first start back you push him to 121 pitches and send him back out for the 7th after he was clearly gassed? Surprise! You’re Bruce Bochy. You’re head is enormous. What really gets me about Bochy is that most of his pitching moves feel purely random. One start he’ll let Matt Cain pitch a billion pitches and the next he’ll yank him by the 4th inning.

~ Fred Lewis has a bunion and might have to go on the DL. This means that Dave Roberts will be rushed back to fill his spot. Frowny face goes here.

You know what I’m talkin’ about.

(10 points to whomever gets the movie reference)

After writing a little yesterday on Fred Lewis and his patient approach at the dish, BCB commenter Delorean reminded me of the great plate discipline data you can pull from FanGraphs. I’ve briefly touched on these stats here at BCB but nothing serious. Today, we’ll examine them in a little more detail. Plate discipline stats are fascinating because you can see when hitters are swinging outside of the strike zone and when they are swinging in the zone, and when they are making contact — both in and out of the strike zone.

We learned yesterday that Fred Lewis sees a lot of pitches when he takes an AB. Just seeing a lot of pitches is only a scratch on the surface, it’s also important to know when he swings and how often he’s making contact from within and outside the strike zone.

I did a few plots for the plate discipline data. Let’s look at the O-Swing and O-Contact numbers first.

O-Swing% is how often a hitter takes a swing outside of the strike zone and O-Contact% is how often a hitter makes contact outside of the strike zone.* Remember, swinging outside of the zone isn’t always a bad thing if you can consistently make contact. Hitters like Vlad Guerrero have made a good living by having awesome plate coverage. My cutoff for these plots are hitters on the Giants that have had at least 150 PA’s. For this plot I’ve sorted our data by O-Swing%, or the most likely to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone.

Season O-Swing Z-Swing  Swing  O-Contact Z-Contact Contact   Zone
2005     20.3%   68.0%  46.0%      51.8%     88.3%   80.8%  53.8%
2006     23.5%   66.6%  46.1%      57.4%     88.5%   81.0%  52.6%
2007     25.0%   66.6%  45.9%      60.8%     88.2%   80.8%  50.3%

Like we noticed yesterday, Molina loves to swing the bat. He’s the Giants hitter that’s most likely to go outside of the strike zone when hitting. We can see from our league average numbers above that from ‘05-’07 your league average hitter went outside of the zone 20-25% of the time. If we use that as a baseline for our hitters, we can see that Molina (36.67%), Bowker (33.04%), Castillo (31.05%), Rowand (30.35%), and Rich Aurilia (27.01%) will all swing outside of the zone more times than your league average hitter. Molina, Bowker, Castillo, and Rowand are especially likely to go outside of the strike zone, they all have O-Swing percentages of 30% or greater. Vizquel (21.35%), Winn (20.73%), Durham (20.16%), and Lewis (18.27%) are less likely than your league average hitter to go outside of the strike zone.

Swinging outside of the zone is one thing, but how often do these hitters make contact when they venture outside of the strike zone? Even though Molina was the most likely Giant to go outside of the zone, he was also the most likely to make contact outside of the strike zone. The league average contact percentage outside of the zone from ‘05-’07 was 51.8-60.8%, that’s almost a 10% spread over three years but if you look at the last two years, hitters have been making more contact outside between 57-60%. Molina (78.79%) and Vizquel (75%) are both excellent at making contact outside of the strike zone. Durham (70.54%), Aurilia (69.42%), Winn (66.9%), Castillo (62.11%), and Lewis (60.9%) all posted above league average percentages — if you use the ‘07 league average of 60.8% as your cutoff — for contact outside of the zone.

What about our new center fielder? Aaron Rowand is a free-swinger — 4th likely on the team to swing outside of the zone — but his contact percentage outside of the strike zone is 48.70%. That’s the worst O-Contact on the team and almost 10-20% below league average. Rowand swings like a power-hitter, but he might do well to refine his approach some and lay off of pitches outside of the zone because he’s had trouble making contact with them. Rowand has always been below average on his contact outside of the zone. His 0-Contact for the last three years stands at 48.19%, 54.04%, and 53.52%

Because I was interested in Lewis yesterday, let’s review his numbers quickly. He’s less likely than your league average hitter when it comes to swinging outside of the zone. His O-Swing this year sits at 18.27% and that’s below the 20.3-25% league average from ‘05-’07. He’s right at league average for contact outside of the zone when he decides to swing the bat. Lewis appears to be very patient and he’s not struggling like Rowand is to make contact outside of the zone when he chooses to swing.

Let’s check out the plot for Z-Swings and Z-Contact, or the percentage of swings a batter takes inside of the zone and the percentage of contact he makes in the zone.

Like I’ve done with the 0-Plot above, I’ve ordered the hitters by Z-Swing%, or by who was most likely to take a swing at pitches in the zone.

The league average hitter swings at pitches inside of the zone anywhere from 66-68% over the last 3 years. Molina (74.05%), Castillo (73.43%), Rowand (72.45%), and Winn (69.24%) are more likely than your league average hitter when it comes to swinging in the zone at pitches. Aurilia (65.34%), Bowker (64.43%), Lewis (62.86%), Vizquel (62.43%), and Durham (62.29%) are less likely to swing at pitches in the strike zone as opposed to your league average hitter. This is where the Giants would like Lewis to swing a little more, when the pitch is in the strike zone. Only Durham and Vizquel took more pitches in the strike zone than Fred Lewis.

From ‘05-’07 the percentage of contact that’s made when a hitter swings inside of the zone has held steady at 88%. Vizquel (96.68%), Bowker (90.97%), and Molina (90.44%) all made contact at 90% or greater when they swung inside of the zone. I wasn’t surprised to see Molina and Vizquel in this group because they seem to be able to get their bats on anything. I was however, surprised to see Bowker in this grouping. Bowker ranked second on the Giants when it came to swinging outside of the strike zone and only Aaron Rowand was worse at making contact outside of the zone. This is where I think Bowker’s next step to becoming a better player — if he takes this step — will occur. If Bowker can swing less outside of the zone and keep himself in the strike zone more, he’ll really benefit as a player. When he swings in the zone he’s making great contact. His tendency to go outside of the zone and miss is what’s hurting him. We all love his swing and the quickness of his bat seems to play well in the zone, the key for him will to be more selective and try not to chase pitches outside of the strike zone.

After Molina, Vizquel, and Bowker, Rich Aurilia was the only other Giants hitter to make contact in the zone at a league average or better percentage. Aurilia made contact within the zone at 89.46%. Winn (86.82%), Durham (86.40%), Rowand (85.68%), Lewis (85.03%), and Castillo (83.55%), all made slightly less contact within the zone than your league average hitter. If Lewis wants to continue to cut his K’s like the Giants wish, it should start with him making more contact within the strike zone. Another reason to not like Castillo is that he doesn’t make good contact inside of the strike zone.

Finally, let’s check out the Zone% for our hitters, or the percentage of strikes they see in the strike zone.

Name	        Zone%
Omar Vizquel	54.60%
Fred Lewis	52.26%
Randy Winn	52.10%
Rich Aurilia	51.67%
Bengie Molina	50.50%
Jose Castillo	50.36%
John Bowker	49.78%
Aaron Rowand	49.24%
Ray Durham	48.47%

From ‘05-’07 the league average Zone% looks as follows: 53.8%, 52.6%, 50.3%.

It’s clear that major league pitchers are challenging Omar Vizquel. He’s seeing the most strikes on the Giants. Pitchers obviously aren’t respecting his (.159/.228/.179) line. It also makes sense that with Lewis’ K problems — 90 punch outs at the half — that he’s seeing the 2nd largest amount of strikes on the Giants. You have to get strikes to strike out and with Lewis being as patient as he is, he’s watching some of those strikes go by. Bowker and Rowand are receiving less strikes than our top hitters because of their tendancy to go outside of the zone and miss. Why throw in the zone — where the league average contact percentage is higher — when you can go outside of the zone and make a batter — in most cases — reduce his chance of contact by nearly 20%?

Wrap up

It’s interesting that the Giants have two young hitters who are basically opposites of each other. John Bowker could use a little more discipline because when he goes out of the zone, he’s probably going to miss. Meanwhile, Fred Lewis isn’t making great contact inside of the zone and he’s not swinging in the zone as much as you would like to see. Because each player in his first full season at the MLB level, we can hope that through coaching, god given abilities, and maybe some luck, they’ll make the needed adjustments.

If you really want to blow your mind, check out Barry Bonds’ plate discipline statistics for the last few years. Just amazing numbers, from ‘06-’07 he only swung at pitches outside of the strike zone 13% of the time. He also made contact within the zone 90%+ of the time. I’d LOVE to see the plate disicipline stats from his peak years of ‘00-’04.

Action returns to major league baseball today but the Giants are still off until Friday when the G’s take on the Brewers. The opening game of the series should be a good one, Matt Cain meet CC — no longer C.C. — Sabathia. The second half of the season will also reveal the Giants new revamped rotation, which looks like this: Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Zito, and Correia. That’s some hot RLRLR action for you. Pushing Zito back as far as you can makes sense because you really don’t want Zito matching up with the CC Sabathia’s of the world.

And because I haven’t written much of anything today, I’m going to go the cheap route and just link to some stuff.

~ El Lefty Malo has a nice post on the state of the Giants outfield.

The outfield has preformed admirably for the Giants but I’m still itchy to move Randy Winn in any trade if I can. Lewis has been a favorite of mine but he’s really striking out a lot right now. As of today, Lewis has a K% of 27.8% which sandwiches him between Matt Kemp (30.8%) and Evan Longoria (26.8%) for 6th in the majors among hitters with 350 PA’s. Freddie-Loo has helped offset his swing-and-a-miss approach with a good dose of walks. He’s walking at 10.5%, which is acceptable.

Lewis has been the Giants most patient hitter in the first half. His average pitches per plate appearance is 4.26 and the only other Giant to see more than 4 pitches per PA, is Ray Durham at 4.13.

Check out the following plots for Pit/PA and Contact Percentage.

Name	 Pit/PA
Lewis	 4.26
Durham	 4.13
Winn	 3.87
Vizquel	 3.75
Castillo 3.64
Bowker	 3.58
Aurilia	 3.53
Rowand 	 3.5
Burriss	 3.47
Molina 	 3.3

Name	 Contact
Vizquel	 91
Burriss	 88
Molina 	 86
Winn	 82
Aurilia	 82
Durham	 81
Lewis	 79
Bowker	 78
Castillo 77
Rowand 	 73

What can these plots tell us?

First, that Fred Lewis sees the most pitches per plate appearance among Giants hitters but his contact percentage is closer to the bottom for these hitters. Seeing more pitches is a good because it tells us that the hitter has some idea of how to control the zone. It’s no coincidence that our top three hitters by Pit/PA — Lewis, Durham, and Winn — lead the Giants in BB% with scores of 10.5%, 12.6%, and 10.6% respectively. The key is when to swing and it’s something that the Giants would like Lewis to do more of. He ranks 3rd in the majors for watching a called strike three. Lewis has said that he’s still learning the zones of the different umpires and hopefully that has some truth to it. I do not think the Giants should try and make Lewis more aggressive. Part of his value is that he’s so patient and that’s going to result in a called strike three now and then.

Secondly, the Pit/PA and Contact plots confirm some of the things we see with our eyes. Namely that Molina likes to swing at everything. His 3.3 pitches per plate appearance tell us that he doesn’t wait around to swing the bat. On the flip side, Molina covers the plate well, his contact percentage of 86 was third on the team. We’ve seen Molina hit balls this year that no one should swing at let alone be able to hit in play. You’ve also got a pair of Hacky McSlaps in Omar and Manny. Omar has a awesome contact percentage but he’s hitting less line drives than ever before and he’s hitting the majority of his balls in play on the ground. Groundballs are more likely to be turned into outs and with Omar losing some mobility because of his knee, it’s not a good mix. Burriss should look to slap the ball on the ground and just run — his infield hit percentage is at a sparkling 13.8%. He might be the fastest player on the Giants and his lack of power means that any ball hit in the air is most likely going for an out.

~ Giants draft pick — still yet to be signed — Buster Posey was named the winner of the 2008 Golden Spikes Award. The GSA goes to the best amateur baseball player and if Posey signs with the Giants, he’ll join Will Clark and Tim Lincecum as former winners of GSA to wear the orange and black.

~ Speaking of Lincecum, he’s feeling better after missing the All-Star Game with a flu-like bug. He should be on schedule for his start against the Brewers on Sunday.

~ Henry Schulman has a midseason report on the Giants. Among several discouraging things he lists a couple of encouranging developments for the ‘08 Giants. In short: Lincecum great, Lewis and Bowker good, and Barry Zito terrible.