Bay City Ball

The Contra Costa Times has a article on Ray Durham and his no-trade clause:

He indicated that he wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal, particularly if the Giants plan to use him as a bench player. But he isn’t pushing for a change of scenery, either.

“I always wanted to be in the East or Midwest to be closer to my kids, but my intent is to come back here and help this club get to the postseason,” said Durham, who lives in Charlotte. “I want to be here. My job is to do what they pay me to do — what I didn’t do this year.”

From the article it sounds like Durham doesn’t really care too much if the Giants try to move him, but at the same time would like to remain in San Fran. Here’s some numbers to give you an idea of just how bad Durham has been this year. The numbers run from 2003-2007, his entire tenure with the Giants.

YEAR	BA	OBP	SLG	K%	BB/K	ISO	BABIP
2003   .285    .366    .441    20.0     0.61   .156     .341
2004   .282    .364    .484    12.7     0.95   .202     .294
2005   .290    .356    .429    11.9     0.81   .139     .310
2006   .293    .360    .538    12.2     0.84   .245     .292
2007   .218    .295    .343    16.2     0.71   .125     .238

Since Durham arrived to San Francisco he’s been Mr. Consistent, hitting around .282 or slightly better and posting an OBP every year in the neighborhood of .360. Durham hit for power in 2004 and 2006, posting an ISO over .200 in each of those years. Being moved out of the leadoff spot could have prompted Ray to swing for the fences more and try to focus more on his power game. Durham has always posted a strong BABIP, hitting over .300 twice with the Giants and his career BABIP of .308 demonstrates that he’s been able to hit over .300 consistently.

Ray’s 2007, like the article states, has been his worst year ever. He struggled in the first half and crashed and burned in the second. Durham has been under the Mendozza Line in the second half hitting (.165/.256/.247). Those aren’t the numbers of a major league baseball player. Durham’s loss of 120 points on his ISO and decline in BABIP to career lows makes me wonder about his bat speed. Durham can’t seem to solidly connect on fastballs this year like he could in the past, resulting in him fouling them off or missing them entirely. Because Durham’s 1st half slide carried into the 2nd half, his trade value over the winter should be very, very low.

The Giants shouldn’t consider starting Durham in 2008. Frandsen has played better lately, even if better is a relative term when talking about Durham . Keeping Durham around as a $7.5M pinch hitter is absurd and should only be exercised if the team can’t move him. He can only play 2B and his defense has eroded even more in his age 35 season. His FRAA of -19 means that Durham’s defense has cost the Giants 19 runs this year. If the Giants try to move Durham they’re going to have to eat $5-6M of his 7.5M salary, at minimum. Or, it’s possible that the Giants could look to take on another teams bad contract, much like the Edgardo Alfonzo for Steve Finley swap a couple of years ago.

Possible Destinations for Durham

1. Minnesota Twins - The Twins are a smart baseball organization so don’t expect them to be knocking the door down to get Ray Durham, but they’ve had some really poor production from their 2B position this year. After trading Luis Castillo to the Mets, Luis Rodriguez, Alexei Castilla, and Nick Punto have all played 2B this year for the Minnesota Twins. No one in the trio has been able to OPS higher than .600. Punto has mostly played 3B this year for the Twins but he’s been among the worst full-time players in the MLB this year. If the Giants ate a large chunk of Durham’s salary, would the Twins be willing to kick the tires on Durham? The Giants could send Durham to the Twins, while eating most of his contract, and receive back a low-level prospect. It could be a nice buy low move for the Twins.
2. Chicago White Sox - How cool would this be? Durham could return to his original team where he played some of his best baseball. The White Sox traded their 2B Tadahito Iguchi to the Phillies earlier this year and turned the job over to Danny Richar. Richar had been a solid minor league prospect in the Arizona organization before he was traded to the White Sox this year for OF Aaron Cunningham. Richar has failed to reproduce his minor league success of (.293/.342/.442) in the majors (.202/.272/.355). White Sox GM, Kenny Williams, is no stranger to making quick moves to fix his baseball team and could look to upgrade his 2B position this winter. If Durham came cheap, he might give him a look.
3. St. Louis Cardinals - The Cards signed 2B Adam Kennedy to a 3 year $10M contract last offseason. Kennedy would probably like to forget this year because he’s only hit (.219/.282/.290), way under his career numbers of (.275/.329/.390). The Cardinals might like to give Durham a chance to see if he can resurrect his career. This could be one of the tougher scenarios because of Kennedy’s contract, which has another 2 years left but Walt Jocketty must be upset with Kennedy’s performance and could look to upgrade at the position. Durham could be a cheap fix that could help the Cardinals if he can bounce back. Jocketty has dealt for veterans in the past.

The caveat with all three teams is that the Giants would have to eat up to 90% of Durham’s contract to move him. Teams just aren’t going to take a chance on Durham unless he comes really cheap. All three teams are closer to the Durham’s home of Charlotte, North Carolina than San Francisco and that could factor into Durham accepting a trade to one of these teams. Even with the terrible season that Durham has had, I think that I would take a shot on him for around $1M dollars and I think most GM’s might think the same way.

The Giants should let Frandsen head into 2008 as the starting 2B. Frandsen has slumped at times this year but has put together a decent 2nd half and a nice September.

I’m not even sure how to begin this post because the sheer absurdity of the Matt Morris trade is still swimming around in my head. It’s probably unwarranted to an extent, but Matt Morris had quickly climbed my chart of most annoying Giants. Not only was he causing waves in the clubhouse, he hit a wall in July which totally killed his trade value. For the month of July Morris had a 8.48 ERA to go along with 27 ER’s in 28.2 IP, that’ll sure kill your trade value. His WHIP is approaching 1.5

For the first half, Morris was doing it with smoke and mirrors. Tossing curveball, after curveball, and hoping for outs. I remained doubtful on Morris because of his lousy peripherals but hoped for the best in the face of statistical doom. The start that officially placed Morris on my hate-list was his last as a Giant against the Marlins. The Giants take the lead, Morris gives it back, the Giants take the lead, Morris gives it back.

Brian Sabean had to be shocked to find that a team was interested in Morris and furthermore, that team would take on his remaining salary, even his 2 million dollar bonus! Dave Littlefield hasn’t been the brightest of GM’s but this move has many around baseball scratching their heads. ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a nice, succinct, take on the deal, one of which he calls one of the five best at the deadline.

Stark’s take:

The Giants’ brass was sitting around its suite Tuesday morning, bemoaning the fact that it had no decent deals cooking whatsoever. And then, out of the blue, it happened. The Pirates called. And wanted Matt Morris. His 7.94 ERA since mid-June? Not a problem. That $9.5 million he’s owed next year (not counting his $1 million 2009 buyout)? Not a problem. And so they swooped in and finished off a deal for Morris minutes before the deadline — for a legit prospect (Rajai Davis), a second prospect to be chosen from an agreed-upon list and absolutely zero money changing hands. Well, it didn’t take long. For the next two hours, after people around baseball learned of this deal, they couldn’t stop calling, e-mailing and texting reactions that could probably be summed up with three succinct words: WHAT THE BX!GRZFDQ!!!!! Don’t get us wrong here. We love Matt Morris. Terrific guy. Has had a wonderful career. Should be a fine mentor to those young Pirates starters. But the Giants were just about begging teams to take Morris and offering to chomp big chunks of his money if they had to. Then this team going nowhere dropped out of the sky and took the man and the money. What a country. “That move,” said one incredulous front-office man, “is so far out of left field, it’s in the Monongahela.”

To find a team, and one on a budget at that, to take on your aging veteran RHP, fully pay his contract plus send a couple players back your way, is like finding all your socks that you’ve ever lost. At once. And the socks would be full of gold. And the gold would be magical. The end.

It just doesn’t make sense for the Pirates to do this deal but I’m not complaining. The Giants shed around 12 million this year and next for which they can use on the market. You really have to give Sabean some praise here, he can take the money saved on Morris and hopefully find something on the market. The Giants will have a lot of holes coming into 2008 and the extra money will be welcome.

The Giants also pick up OF Rajai Davis in the deal. Davis will be shuffled into the Giants collection of 4th OF’s (Lewis and Ortmeier). Davis looks like a speedy OF with a decent OBP. His career minor league line is (.305/.375/.407) with 251 career stolen bases. He’s not going to be considered a prospect because he turns 27 in October but he has the chance to spell Dave Roberts against LHP and help spell Old Man Bonds’ Legs. I’ve heard mixed reports of Rajia’s D, which range from excellent to poor. His defense could be his best asset to the team looking for a late innings replacement. Davis actually has a lot in common with Fred Lewis because they both are late bloomers that got into baseball later in life.

Here’s what BA said about Davis:

A natural center fielder, Davis, 26, runs extremely well and was leading the Triple-A International League with 27 stolen bases when he was recalled to the majors in June. A 38th-round pick in 2001, Davis already has beaten the odds by making it to the major leagues, but his defensive prowess–including a very strong throwing arm–and foot speed might allow him to stay there.

I love the idea of a speedy OF with a strong throwing arm that knows how to get on base. I’d like to see the Giants give Davis a few starts a week to see what they have with him. When’s the last time the Giants had a great defensive center fielder? The PTBNL won’t show up for awhile but it’s always a chance the Giants could get a semi-interesting low level prospect.

Have fun in baseball purgatory, Matt. Don’t eat too many pirogies or hang too many curveballs!

Comment Starter: Greatest trade ever or greatest trade ever?

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Update

Just a quick update here, thanks goes to Lefty for the heads up on this link. A article on SI.com details the top 8 prospects to change teams during this trading deadline. Rajai Davis comes in at 7/8 with the following praise:

Being able to get out of the Morris contract was enough for the Giants; landing Davis in the deal was icing on the cake. Davis has never gained praise for his tools, but with a consistent record of success, he is just as likely to be a successful leadoff man than current Giants outfielder Fred Lewis. Both players would be just as successful as Dave Roberts hitting atop the Giants order today, as Davis has shown good contact skills and a patient approach in the minor leagues. Davis lacks any upside but in an organization about to enter a rebuilding mode, swapping an overpaid Morris for a leadoff hitter-to-be is as good a move as can be made.

Thanks Lefty! Be sure to read his post on the Morris bon voyage.

A quick post this morning on a interesting rumor that I read this morning from Fox’s Ken Rosenthal.

Quoting from an article entitled ‘First basemen hot deadline commodities’:

The Mariners, blanketing the majors with scouts in their pursuit of rotation and bullpen help, are drawing mild inquiries on first baseman Richie Sexson.

Trading Sexson would enable the team to move left fielder Raul Ibanez to first, opening up a spot for the team’s top outfield prospect, Adam Jones.

The Giants have expressed past interest in Sexson, who is owed the balance of his $14 million salary this season and $14 million next season.

The two teams apparently are not talking, but a Sexson-for-Matt Morris trade would make sense. Morris, also signed through next season, has struggled of late. Then again, Sexson is batting just .204.

This seems like the quintessential Brian Sabean trade. A player that the team has had interest in before? Check. A player that’s in his early 30’s, Sexson is 32, and has experienced big league success before? Double check. Mike Muprhy had better get cracking on a Richie Sexson jersey.

Rosenthal mentions that Sexson is only hitting .204 this year and has had a disappointing season. Sexson hasn’t even come close to approaching his career numbers of (.265/.347/.518) and he’s stunk just as badly on the road as he has at Safeco. Should the Giants try and make a swap for Big Sexy? Let’s take a look at some numbers.

In Sexson’s prime he was worth between 7-8 wins, in 2006 he was around 6 wins and this year he’s dropped to just to under 2 wins. PECOTA had Sexson projected at (.258/.352/.508) which were in line with his career numbers, but he’s greatly underperformed this year. He’s currently around his 10% PECOTA projection. Sexson’s highest diagnostic score in PECTOA was his collapse diagnostic, which was rated at 34%. For those unfamiliar with PECOTA’s diagnostics, heres what the BP glossary has to say about the collapse rate.

For hitters, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that the player’s EqR/27 will decrease by at least 20% relative to the weighted average of his EqR/27 in his three previous seasons of performance. For pitchers, Collapse Rate is the percent chance that a pitcher’s EqERA will increase by at least 25% relative to his baseline EqERA over his past three seasons. High Collapse Rates are indicative of downside risk.

What concerns me about Sexson is that his power he been dropping the last couple of seasons and when a player like Sexson who has only has one skill set, power, you become a little tense when that skill starts to fade. In his best years Sexson’s ISO, or isolated power which is (SLG - AVG), hovered around the mid .270’s.

Richie Sexson ISO numbers from 2005-2007

Fangraphs has a nice chart of Sexson’s ISO right here, Sexon’s ISO is still above the ML-average but I don’t like the trend. Right now if you compared Sexson to our starting 1B Ryan Klesko, you would find that Klesko is actually more valuable. Sexson’s huge slump this year has really done a number on his stats. Comparing by VORP between the two, Klesko rates at (8.3) and Sexson at (-2.6) Sexson is performing under replacement for 2007.

So, is everything bad with Sexson? Mostly, I don’t like the chances of Sexson’s player-type aging well. I haven’t seen him on TV much this year so I don’t know if his swing has slowed down or whats happening to him. Maybe a Mariners fan or someone familiar with him could chime in? His LD% is down this year so maybe something is up with his bat? Line drives tend to fall for hits 75% of the time. I also don’t like the declining power in a one dimensional player who can’t do much else, he’s a bad fielder (costing you about 9 runs per 150 games according to the newest UZR) and a bad baserunner.

If Sexson has one saving grace this year it’s his super low BABIP. BABIP usually hovers around .300 for the average hitter but this year Sexson has a cellar dweller BABIP of (.210) more of Sexson’s hits theoretically should have found holes in the defense. In the context of BABIP he’s been very unlucky this year and should finish better than his current stats indicate. I guess also based on contract, Sexson would be a low-risk scenario if he came very cheap. After 2008 he’s a free agent.

Trading Sexson makes perfect sense for Seattle, with Adam Jones tearing up AAA, trading Sexson opens up a spot for him on the big club. A Sexson-for-Morris deal would have to include another prospect from Seattle because the salaries don’t match up between Morris and Sexson. Unless that prospect included something great like Clement or Balentien with SF sending back a relief arm, I would pass on this one. It doesn’t make sense for the Giants to take on another older player with question marks.

If the Giants plan on playing another guy at first this year I’d like to just see them call up AAA Scott McClain and just let him go. He’s not much of a prospect because he’s old at 35 but he’s been hitting a bunch of HR’s this year in Fresno. Maybe a Jack Cust-lite? I like seeing career minor league journeymen getting a chance.

Comment Starter: Thumbs up / Thumbs down to a Sexson for Morris trade?

Another bat. More lumber. Getting another hitter. This is probably the #1 item atop most fans wish list. Hitting has picked up lately but adding another strong bat to the lineup would make things look nicer. Much nicer. Bonds is still playing out of his gourd and you hope that he can hold up for the duration of the entire season. A couple of weeks ago the Giants ranked dead last in the NL in runs scored. As of today, they’ve leapfrogged all the way up to the #11 spot.

With Lincecum getting the call for tonights game, the Giants have a strength that they can deal from to acquire a hitter. That strength being pitching. Peter Gammons writes in his blog:

With Tim Lincecum coming up and Jonathan Sanchez in the shadows, the Giants are discussing shopping a starting pitcher to get a young position player. They would like Melky Cabrera, but it is doubtful the Yankees would consider Cabrera for Noah Lowry.

Stop the dream bus, I want off. Melky Cabrera is a nice young player but I have some doubts about him. What the Giants need is a solid bat to hit somewhere around Bonds and Cabrera is certainly not that. He’s basically a 4th OF at this point in his career with a lot of youth and maybe some promise.

Melky Cabrera was signed as a undrafted free agent by the Yankees in 2001 out of the Dominican Republic. His career minor league numbers are (.294/.347/.422). He had a breakout year in 2006 in which he hit (.280/.360/.391). Cabrera is a patient linedrive hitter with gap power. What’s not to like?

1. For a corner outfielder, he doesn’t really hit enough. Think Randy Winn here. To have value on the Giants he would have to play centerfield, where Dave Roberts is already installed. Some think that Cabrera is stretched playing center, in 2006 he had a FRAA of 0 while playing CF. He’s a much better fielder in the corners, posting a FRAA of 6 in LF and 0 in RF. For those who aren’t familiar with FRAA, a 0 means that you are a average fielder. Scores above or under 0 mean that you are above average or below average respectively.
2. Small sample size aside but so far this year Melky has struggled. His line for 2007 to this point is (.232/.288/.263). Chances are that he’ll improve on that line, as it’s still early in the season, but what if he doesn’t?
3. I think that trading Lowry for Melky is selling low. In Melky’s successful 2006 he OPS+’d 100. Which meant that he was exactly league average. Lowry is signed to a cheap contract, is left handed, and if he can continue on his 2005 success he’ll be a bargain. In 2005 Lowry posted a ERA+ of 110, meaning that he was slightly better than a league average pitcher. This point is predicated on the notion that Lowry’s decline in ‘06 was because of a oblique strain and not a decline in “stuff”.

Melky is a good young player that could potentially turn into a Bobby Abreu type player in a few years. Unfortunately, the Giants don’t have time to wait around to see if he develops. The team needs a solid, already established bat, that can hit in the middle part of the order around Bonds. Lowry is the strongest trading chip that Sabean currently has and should be spent wisely.

A few rumors floating around recently that the White Sox would like to acquire Omar Vizquel for Juan Uribe and probably a pitching prospect. Uribe has had some off season trouble being involved in a shooting. The White Sox heavily pursued Omar before he signed with the Giants during the 2004-2005 off season. The Sox are believed to have offered Omar 2 years at 10 million but the Giants came in and gave him the 3rd year that he wanted. Brian Sabean has recently stated that he would think about extending Omar’s contract for another year or two. I love Omar as much as the next guy but I don’t know if extending a 40 year old shortstop, who is still amazing, is really that great of an idea and at the same time I don’t think trading him away is either. Lets look over a couple of numbers.

Juan Uribe is a slick fielding shortstop with some pop, hitting 21 homers in ‘06, but has abysmal on base skills. Last year he took less walks than Pedro Feliz. Try and wrap your head around that. No, seriously, try it. I didn’t think any human being on this planet could walk less than Pedro but Jaun Uribe did. Walking just 13 times in 463 at bats. That’s a walk to at bat ratio of 1:37 which makes Pedro Feliz look like Barry Bonds (Feliz had a 1:18 ratio for those that are interested). Heres quick stat line on how Omar and Juan did offensively

Omar Vizquel - .295/.361/.389 with a OPS+ of 93
Juan Uribe - .235/.257/.441 with a OPS+ of 74

If I had to chose between the two based on offense, I would take Vizquel. Even though Uribe slugs at a higher percentage his inability to draw walks or get on base consistently really hurts his stock. Comparing VORP for Omar and Juan further stresses this point. Omar’s VORP in ‘06 was 28 and Uribe’s was -0.6, ouch. But offense isn’t all there is to baseball, we also need to take into account defense. Defensively Uribe is a fine choice to play shortstop. Lets run down some quick defensive stats for both of our shortstops

Omar Vizquel - FPCT .993 | RF 4.18 | ZR .864
Juan Uribe - FPCT .977 | RF 4.70 | ZR .868

Omar comes out on top in fielding percentage but Uribe has a better range factor score. The zone rating for both comes out to a draw. Even though Omar is approaching 40 he is still a very respectable short stop. Uribe also is no slouch defensively. Overall, I still have to take Omar over Juan. Defensively, they are a draw but offensively I have to go with Omar. Uribe is an absolute black hole when it comes to getting on base and if he could raise his OBP to around his 2004 levels (.327) then he is a much more valuable player than Omar but I have my doubts if Uribe can ever do that. I would rather the Giants hang on to Omar for 2007 and look at the 2008 free agent market for a shortstop replacement. Guys like Michael Young and Carlos Guillen will be free agents in ‘08 and would fit nicely as the next Giants shortstop

Quick Hits

• Award time! Hanely Ramirez and Justin Verlander win the NL and AL ROY awards respectively. I was pulling for Ryan Zimmerman to win the NL but Ramirez is also a good choice. The Red Sox have to be grimacing over Hanely right now. Verlander was pretty much a lock to win the AL.

• Padres aren’t opposed to moving Brian Giles. I personally can’t see it happening. Giles isn’t the 30 home run threat he used to be but has been one of the few sources of offense on a weak hitting Padres squad. I think they’ll hang on to Giles which also doesn’t hurt their chances of acquiring Marcus Giles to play second.

The offseason is like that Hispanic soap opera that you’ll sometimes find yourself watching around lunch. You can’t understand half the stuff thats happening but its still grossly entertaining. It’s also the perfect time for half-brained crazy trade scenarios that everyone loves to cook up. Albert Pujols and Adam Wainwright for Brad Hennessey and a box of dreams? Sure thing! You’ve got a deal Walt, I’ll send the paperwork over in the morning. The smallest change in one team’s roster opens up a thousand different possibilities for other teams looking to add players. Which brings me to todays post.

Houston is very close to re-signing Aubrey Huff to a 3 year deal with a option for the fourth. Huff was brought in at the trading deadline in 2006 to pick up at bats from a struggling Morgan Ensberg. Ensberg had a breakout year in 2005 but struggled to find a groove in 2006, putting up a final line of .235/.396/.464. The Astros seem to be tired of his inconsistency and now that Huff is close to re-signing, Ensberg’s likeliness of getting dealt just shot through the roof. If Ensberg can be had for a couple of minor prospects I think he would be a good sign. He constantly puts up a good OBP and has had flashes of brilliance. He is solid defensively and would play a nice third base in San Francisco. The drawbacks are that he’s a streaky hitter and that since he is 31, this is as good as hes going to get. He also slugs about a 100 points higher at the hitter friendly Minute Maid Park than on the road.

Would the Giants and Astros be suitable trade partners? Maybe. It’s believed that the Astros are looking for starting pitching. The Giants do have some interesting starting pitching prospects but nothing thats solid and major league ready. Nick Pereira had a nice run in A ball and was aggressively promoted by the Giants to AAA but hit a speed bump struggling to find his stuff in Fresno. Does anyone actually desire a Brad Hennessey? The pitching prospects that other teams will most likely inquire about should be untouchable. I would trade anyone not named Lincecum, Sanchez, or Sadler. But the writing is on the wall for Ensberg in Houston and I believe that hes on his way out. If the Giants could find a suitable trade package to send, maybe something like Brad Hennessey + Brian Anderson + other mid-level prospect, a deal could be made.

Just a quick blurb on Pat Burrell this morning, Philly.com is reporting that Burrell would agree to waive his no-trade clause to play in San Francisco. I just posted earlier this week that Burrell would be a great fit for the Giants and that a big stumbling block would be his no-trade clause, which seems to be less of a problem now. I think Burrell would be a great addition to the Giants lineup and could hit 3-4-5, depending on who else the Giants sign this off season.

The article briefly mentions the popular scenario amongst off season discussion of a swap of Benitez and maybe a prospect for Burrell. Philly badly wants to unload Burrell’s contract and recent news reports say that they are pushing hard for Alfonso Soriano. No doubt that Pat Gillick would love to free up a little more money to throw in Soriano’s direction. This trade would be a great deal for the Giants. First of all, they will fill in a gaping hole at first that hasn’t had solid RBI production since J.T. Snow played at Candlestick. Secondly, they get rid of Benitez who was worn out his welcome in San Francisco at light speed. Lets make this happen Sabean.