Bay City Ball’s 2013 Top Prospect List, #15-11

Published by on January 30, 2013 | 13 Responses

This year marks the third year that we’ve put together a site prospect ranking. (You can find the previous rankings here: 2011 – 2012.) The way it works is that we each come up with a ranking, share lists, and then hash out a final ranking.

Chris Martinez and I composed this year’s list.

Today’s ranking focuses on the #15 through #11 spots. Without further delay, let’s get things started.

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15. Brett Bochy, RP, 25 years old in 2013

Chris Quick: Yes, that’s Bruce’s kid. For me, historically, I’ve used the 15th spot on these rankings to take a shot on someone. Bochy has a couple of great things going for him: an overall successful season in AA in 2012, a career 11.9 K/9 rate, and a career 4.69 K/BB rate. However, there’s also a bunch of red flags. He was shut down on August 20th with what was dubbed an “extremely tired arm.” He didn’t appear in another game in 2012. And, scouting reports on Bochy the Younger peg him as a reliever without top-shelf velocity. He looks like your average slider/fastball reliever, but with really nice minor league stats. Still, Sergio Romo taught me not to bet against these kind of players, but, admittedly, he’s still a long shot.

Chris Martinez: Bochy aced Double-A Richmond with 14 saves and 69 strikeouts in 53 1/3 innings. He bypassed San Jose after blowing away the competition in Augusta in 2011. The bad news for Bochy is the San Francisco bullpen is loaded and Heath Hembree is ahead of him on the reliever depth chart. If he does well in Triple-A Fresno in 2013 the Giants may be forced to find a place for him.

14. Gustavo Cabrera, OF, 17 years old in 2013

CQ: Cabrera, ranked the #1 international prospect by MLB.com, signed this past July with the Giants for $1.3M. Prospects this young are always filled with the ultimate “what if” scenarios. He could turn out to be the Justin Upton NES cartridge that’s jammed into a Game Genie. Or Rafael Rodriguez, the Giants’ last big splash, and dud, on the international market. Still, the Giants thought enough about Cabrera to pay him. That’s enough for me. He’s a $1.3M TOOLS gamble. That’s the salary of one Theriot … eh, why not?

CM: Cabrera has some of the best tools in the system, including raw power and bat speed. The Giants signed the top ranked outfield prospect for $1.3 million last summer. A quick glance at Cabrera reads like a lower-risk, potentially higher-reward version of Angel Villalona if just for his better conditioning and athleticism. Cabrera turns 17 in 2013 and is a long way from making an impact. The idea of a power hitting outfielder in San Francisco makes Cabrera one to watch.

13. Stephen Johnson, RP, 22 years old in 2013

CQ: Things I know about Stephen Johnson: 1) He throws really, really hard, and has been clocked at triple digits; 2) He probably has no idea where the ball is going. Johnson, a sixth round pick in the 2012 draft, has exactly the kind of huge arm that I bet Dick Tidrow wakes up in the middle of the night, with cold sweats, dreaming about. He profiles as a reliever with elite velocity and if he can develop better secondary offerings, could be something special. He’s still way too far away to make any proclamations on, but, man, that arm.

CM: He has a ton of velocity and will strike out a lot of batters, which is great. His control is a question mark. That said, he projects as a reliever for now, but a pretty lethal one once he gets his command figured out. I’ll be watching him closely this coming year. Hopefully he’s assigned to Augusta because a full season of work will tell what he can do.

12. Adam Duvall, 3B, 24 years old in 2013

CQ: Duvall has been something of a question mark to me. We ranked him #14 in 2012 and, despite moving up two spots, he’s still kind of the same guy — a player with questionable defense, but the ability to hit for power. Maybe the most alarming thing about Duvall, for me, is that he was only six-percent better than the league average batter in the California League in 2012; that’s after he was 46-percent better than average in 2011 in the South Atlantic League. Duvall’s ability to hit for power — 30 HRs in San Jose — in a power starved system is nice, but I still don’t know what to make of him.

CM: I like Duvall for his power and his overall hitting. He does strike out a lot, as most power hitters do, but he walks enough for me to forgive some of the whiffs. One of the biggest knocks on Duvall’s game was his defense, which he cleaned up significantly last year in San Jose. He’s 24 (cue the age per level fiends) and needs to prove he can hit in Double-A and continue to improve on defense. Richmond separates the real prospects in the Giants system, so this year is key for Duvall.

11. Andrew Susac, C, 23 years old in 2013

CQ: A second-rounder in 2011, Susac’s first year in pro-ball can be summed up as disappointing. While playing for San Jose, Susac struck out 100 times, walked 50 times, and hit an overall batting line of .244/.351/.380 … about four-percent below league average. There’s a good enough chance that Susac can get things back on track and have a MLB career, but it’s hard to get too excited after his 2012. Positional scarcity means a lot, and after having a trio of catchers in the system last year — Joseph, Sanchez, and Susac — things have drastically thinned out at the catching position.

CM: Susac’s 2012 year was a big letdown, due to high expectations after he was drafted and an aggressive assignment in Advanced-A San Jose to begin his career. Not only did his plus power disappear, but he also lost another hallmark of his game: above-average defensive skills behind the plate. He made many mistakes on defense last year, including poor throws, poor ball blocking, and poor coverage at the plate. Now that I’ve bagged on him, let’s look at the positives. He’s still young at 23 years old coming into this season. He has collegiate catching experience. His tools are very good. I think he can absorb a crappy year if he repeats the level to work with San Jose manager Andy Skeels, a former catcher.

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Stay tuned this week as we go through the rest of our rankings. Also, feel free to comment/debate in the comments section. There’s nothing like prospect rankings to whip everyone up into a frothy rage.

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Foothills Ryan
Foothills Ryan

Did I interpret that right? Heston is outside the top 15?

Ouch!

He's gotten some Michael Fiers and Tommy Millone comps. Doesn't that count for somethin'?

Bring on the next 5. Curious if you guys are soured on Brown's year as you were on Susac. At least Susac has a penchant for taking a walk.

TSF
TSF

What's the story with Rafael Rodriguez? I've heard his name pop up recently, but from what I've found, there's still a player in the Giants system by that name, and he's a young 20 years old. Are the "bust" labels premature, or is he playing with a digitally remastered shoulder?

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Calling a 20-year-old a bust is probably harsh, but he's really done nothing since he entered the system. He was signed for $2.55M in 2008 and since then he's batted .252/.307/331 in 899 plate appearances with 6 HR, 57 BB, and 158 SO. He's young, but you can only stay young for so long. I'm not sure he's even a top 30 prospect at this point.

Roger
Roger

I'm intrigued! Somebody is dropping low. Maybe two somebodies in fact!

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Not spoiling, but Williamson is on our list!

Roger
Roger

If my calculations are right, i would have preferred to see that "take a shot" spot go to Williamson. I think he's going all Brandon Belt on the system in 2013!

Roger
Roger

I've said this before, but for me, now that the Giants have developed Bochy into a guy who could legitimately have a big league career, I'd really like to see them include him in a trade somewhere else. I just don't like the conflict of interest it sets up that his Dad his going to have to be making the difficult decisions with his career. Seems difficult for everybody involved.

Roger
Roger

Oh and I'm not a Bochy believer much at all. Relies too much on deceptive delivery for me to put him this high. I guess I wont' be surprised if he bounces around some major league bullpens for awhile (a la Scott Atchison!) but there are other bullpen arms I'd have higher than him (and even some starters, like Chris Heston who seems at least as likely to be a valuable part of the Giants bullpen at some point as Bochy).

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Heston *is* probably the better prospect. But, like I said above, the 15th spot -- for me, on this list -- is usually the spot where I take a shot on someone. Bochy's arm problems are kind of concerning, too.

Roger
Roger

One of the really surprising things to come out of the Prospect Handbook this year is the notion that the Giants may try to use Steven Johnson as a starter this year, along the lines of the attempts at converting Chris Marlowe last season. Given the power arm it's certainly an admirable idea and I'd love to see it succeed. I wouldn't be surprised if Tidrow's overhauling his motion, as there are concerns about a short-arm and back stabbing motion that leads some to fear future injury. My guess he's part of the Augusta rotation (which is pretty up for grabs right now) and we'll just see. Perhaps to limit his workload they'll bounce him back and forth from bullpen to rotation (again like Marlowe). I'll be really interested to see his progress. It's also somewhat surprising to me that they would try to convert Johnson to SP and not Okert (who throws almost as hard from the left side).

I'm going to ask Baggs in today's Giants chat on BA about Gustavo. He seemed to suggest in the writeup on Cabrera that it's quite likely that Gustavo doesn't play anywhere this summer while they try to create a swing for him that can play in games (which is the million dollar Gustavo question). It's possible that he was meaning to say that it's likely Gustavo doesn't play in the US this year (and he'll be in the DSL) but I guess I could see them just keeping an eye on him at the Scottsdale camp while they try to overhaul his swing mechanics. It's unfortunately not a skill for which the Giants have shown much capability as an organization, but the payoff could be huge if they succeed. I do like the way they value three way speed/power/defense athletes. Let's hope Gustavo is the lottery ticket that pays off.

Duvall, I just don't know. Doesn't seem to do anythign well but hit for power and his walks took a bit of a worrisome dip this year. Apparently he was originally ticketed for AA in 2012 but the onset of diabetes in the winter/spring led to a rapid decline in weight and strength during ST and once they diagnosed the problem, the Giants medical staff wanted to keep him close so they sent him to SJ. If that doesn't excuse it certainly contextualizes his wretched April/early May, and without that terrible six week stretch his season numbers (relative to league) look a lot better. The fact that his fielding aspires to credible is always going to be a problem with him though, especially as (again from Baggs) his lack of athleticism and footspeed makes 2b "impractical" and LF "unlikely." Bad combo.

Agree with everything said about Susac. Highly disappointing season, but still represents some of the best tools of any position player in the system. They're going to have to smooth out that leg kick though, it really seemed to kill him against pro pitching. As MLB network was just saying about Tony Bautista the other day, high leg kicks make hitting for power easier, but they make hitting in general much harder.

DrBGiantsfan
DrBGiantsfan

The Giants overhauled Brandon Belt's swing out of college. I think he keeps reverting and then they have to work on it all over again, but when he does what they want him to do, he's hit and hit for power.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Good info on Johnson -- I guess it's worth a shot. Praise be unto Tidrow. I love that guy.

I think Duvall's move up to #12 is more a representation of the system thinning out a little. I'm not a huge fan of him and, when you adjust for league, his 2012 wasn't overly impressed. He was basically a slightly better than league average hitter. To me, he just looks like a guy with a bunch of roadblocks. I guess, that's the case for most prospects, but he doesn't seem to do anything exceptionally well except hit for power and walk.

Totally agree on Susac. I do get worried when some of the pre-draft concerns about hitting mechanics turn out to be right, or at least something to keep an eye on. Still, he's the best catcher in the system right now and he does have tools.