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Lee
Lee

With the Yankees needing help it was best for the Giants to get this done and if reports were accurate Cardinals offered 2 yrs at $16mil so to get 3 at $20mil was worthwhile. By 3rd year he should at least be able to be a solid utility or mentor to whomever Giants can get there in 2015.

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peakfreak
peakfreak

Why was this better than trading for a younger player with about the same potential?  Wasn't that possible and cheaper and no less risky?  Right now, Arias and maybe Theriot are the backup plan for when father time touches Scutero.   Does that give anyone else pause?

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@peakfreak because you want someone that can play RIGHT NOW.  You don't want potential out there.  This is the DEFENDING WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS with a team that can most likely make it back to the play offs.  Arias is a good quality 4A to average Major Leaguer with + defense.  I think Theriot is a free agent and don't think he's coming back.  Having a potential prospect guy to back up Scutaro would be nice.  But Arias isn't a bad fall back option.

peakfreak
peakfreak

@allforfunnplay I know they are in win now mode.  I mis-typed,  I should have written "Why was this better than trading for a younger player with about the same ABILITY?"

flashharry524
flashharry524

@peakfreak  @allforfunnplay Scutaro is a leader ni the clubhouse and on the diamond and that counts for a lot more than some younger guy with the same ability.  Also, I defy you to find a younger someone who combines his ability to make contact with his leadership.  He was the guy the needed.

peakfreak
peakfreak

@allforfunnplay So you're saying there is no team with a surplus of MI talent willing to take a chance on a number of the Giants prospects?  That's BS, we traded 1 minor leaguer for Scutero + cash and you want to tell me there are no decent MI available or the Giant's MinLeagers suck too much to get one, either way you didn't answer the question - why is going with Scutero better?

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@peakfreak what middle infielder do you know with Scutaro's ability + upside?  and one that is available for trade? and who would they trade away?  their farm system isn't that strong right now.  maybe Hector Sanchez would be a possibility but then the Giants are intent on keeping the band together and I'm guessing that includes a back up catcher that works well with Lincecum and Zito.

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sfgiants1958
sfgiants1958

How long before someone figures out that they can play two right fielders, one long, one short and take away the Scutaro opposite field strategy? Watching Scutaro, and never seeing him swing at a single first pitch, I'll be he's got a strategy for that.

sayhey24man
sayhey24man

If your from 1958 you probably remember Harvey Kuhn---never did see him swing at the first pitch.

ariess
ariess

@sayhey24man  Do you mean Harvey Kuenn?

sayhey24man
sayhey24man

I lived in the Bay Area and the only games on TV were the ones against the Dodgers.  Harvey NEVER swung at the first pitch.

sfgiants1958
sfgiants1958

@ariess  @sayhey24man Harvey Kuenn major contributor the Giants '62 pennant year. Never saw him play as I was living in LA, but I remember he hit well, scored a bunch of runs, he played left, right and third. Perfect platoon guy who hit for average. All I know about his is from listening to Russ and Lon on the radio, and remembering his indelible face on my baseball cards.

Damon
Damon

Here's some perspective: the Rays shipped a prospect just to acquire Yunel Escobar from the Marlins, who is owed $5 mil/year for the next 3 years. I'm pretty sure he falls into the "ick" category.

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ariess
ariess

The market price seems to be a game of chicken between the teams and the agents.  It is really just in the ether, or as it might be stated today,  the market value is decided somewhere in the cloud.

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@ariess uhm...definition of "market value" is what someone is willing to pay for something.  no really getting around it.  agents can play games but at the end of the day they have to have a team that is willing to pay their client.  so contrary to your statement about the "cloud" and a game of chicken with agents, the market price is set by the teams willing to pay for the player.

ariess
ariess

@allforfunnplay  And by what metric, ie; 5 million per WAR, or what determines what a specific team is going to pay for a player? Is it based on a known formula, or is it primarily based on some over hanging perception of what they think they should do with their millions?

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@ariess all the above and more, statistical financial analysis,  market comparables along with each team's specific specific degree of need.

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allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

a look at this deal like Pagan's deal: deals that have expected throwaway years.  the Giants are paying close to Market price and getting and extra year that if that player miraculously keeps playing at their current level is a free bonus (free because that year's salary is essentially extra payment for the previous years).  Or if the Giants notice that player slipping a year or two into their contract and they spot it quickly enough maybe they can quickly trade them for some prospects.  

 

Scutaro got a 2 year deal worth $20M with an extra probable throw away year and some differed compensation.  Which essentially makes Scutaro a $10M a year player.  That's extremely steep but the free agent market for middle infielders is pretty thin and the Giants don't really have a better short term solution.   Pagan's deal to me is a 3 year $40M deal which is essentially $13.3M per year with an extra throwaway year and some differed compensation.  Again, if you look at what Upton and Victorino got, it's not that far out of line with the Market.

ariess
ariess

@allforfunnplay With that logic Victorino essentially received a two year 19.5 million dollar a year deal with a 3rd throw away year.

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@ariess depends if your definition of "throw away year".   is age 35 and/or the 4th year of a deal?  also depends on that particular player's history of consistency.

allforfunnplay
allforfunnplay

@ariess yeah, but I think Victorino is looked at by the MLB community as having a fairly consistent history of major league production and just had a bad year.  I think the view on Pagan is that he's spent most of his career as a part time player that had a good year, a bad year and then a good year.  the PERCEPTION is of less of a track record by Pagan.  How the comparison bears out of both players's career consistent production is as an objective statistical number...i don't know.

ariess
ariess

@allforfunnplay The "Flying Hawaiin definitely showed some signs of regression last year. Whether it was do to injury, just a bad spurt, or decline will only be known going forward.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Actually, you're correct -- this is what I get for doing math halfway asleep -- his wWAR should be 2.6, which looks even better.

sayhey24man
sayhey24man

A second place hitter that puts the ball in play-----a great commodity.  No WS ring without Scuturo this year.

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AndyG
AndyG

The third year isn't great, but drop off is a bigger worry for the slug-for-the-fences type players, not for pure contact hitters like Scutaro, who swung and missed at twelve pitches for the giants in the regular season and only twice in the postseason (both ridiculous #s).

Overall, reigning champs coming back with their 1-6 hitters (not to mention full starting rotation and bullpen) is surely something to look forward to.

ariess
ariess

@AndyG   Nellie Fox, who made contact all the time it seems, retired after his 37 year old year.  Scutaro is truly a special case.  What do they feed these guys in Venezuela?

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TSF
TSF

I don't believe in excess capacity. I think that if teams are operating below their maximum payroll, they're not using their resources to the fullest. Money should be saved only in the expectation of unforeseen future opportunity...or in anticipation of an opportunity arising.

 

Since the Giants ownership sets payroll, this doesn't necessarily apply. Sabean has a budget, but could ask for more money if the need be. So...if Sabean was told payroll had to be in the neighborhood of $140M, I don't hate this deal. Scutaro represents the most known quantity and the best return for the Giants' investment, and any excess dollars compared to a similar player (Hiroyuki Nakajima?) becomes the premium paid for certainty. With arbitration raises, the 2013 Giants payroll will fall somewhere in that ballpark.

 

But if signing Scutaro directly precluded the Giants signing Swisher (or, the Giants would have signed Swisher had they failed to net Scutaro) I dislike this deal. We'd be paying Swisher to be a 4-win player annually, but there's less intuitive risk in signing a younger player, and one at an arguably less demanding position. And those extra 2 wins really mean a lot in a tight campaign race.

 

I can just hope the young guys improve and the platoons stay strong.

KennyCupp
KennyCupp

@TSF I'd hate to sign Swisher only because while he seems like the best available corner OF in that price range, I don't want to get rid of our first round pick simply for the pleasure of signing him. Especially to give that pick to the Yankees. #vomit

peakfreak
peakfreak

@KennyCupp  @TSF How good is the 32nd pick likely to be anyway?  The Giants are in win now mode, so getting an established player for $ and a crappy draft pick seems like good sense.

TSF
TSF

@KennyCupp  Swisher's a solid player, and while we'd be paying him what's effectively market value for the wins he'd bring, those wins are pretty important to a contending team. Consider, the Giants paid $6M, $4.85M, and $2.2M to Melky, Pagan, and Scutaro last season. They just spent $8.25M and $6.6M for Pagan to be half as good, and Scutaro be just as good. Unless you are very bullish on Pagan/Scutaro's ability to improve on 2012, these are modest expectations which cost more than the combined three player's salaries from 2012. And we're still out the extra wins Pagan provided, and all the value Melky did. Basically, the team didn't improve with these signings, it spent a lot of money to give some certainty that it wouldn't be substantially worse.

 

While we'd punt a draft pick for Swisher, it's unlikely that we'll find an immediately useful prospect at the tail end of the 2013 draft. The popular consensus is it's not a very talented, or deep draft, and the Giants are built to win right now. The value that prospect represents to the current team would be as a future trade piece, and that doesn't help the team in 2013 where it needs to make up Melky's wins. I would much rather forfeit a 2013 pick than any of the top pitching prospects in the farm right now.

 

As the team is currently structured, it's based around the expectation that all the players will improve to make up the difference in lost value between 2012 and 2013. I don't know if I trust that. It's expecting a full bounce back with Pence and Lincecum, improved health with Sandoval, and improved production from Belt while Posey stays the same. There's a lot of uncertainty, and I can't say for sure if the 2013 squad will be as good as 2012, let alone better. We definitely did remark the 2012 team looked way better than 2011 on paper before the season started.

 

In the end, Pagan/Scutaro returning isn't enough. Sabean has to do more, and it doesn't have to be Swisher. He could pull off another under the radar dumpster dive that leads to an All-Star. But I wouldn't bet on anything.

campanari
campanari

The math baffles me, I must say: how does one get a weighting of 2.4, 2.8, and 2.5 that is lower than any of the three, 2.2?  What Scutaro has been over the last five years is a consistent player, so that there's a reasonable likelihood that he will justify his salary before he gets to the "kind of scary" third year.  I don't see this as any indication that baseball has lost its damned mind--that's the conclusion one might reach from someone's throwing $75M at B.J. Upton or whatever it will be for Josh Hamilton--but rather a contract that's at worst fair market value and at best an ample bargain.