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pppatrik
pppatrik

That Helton-gif is good, makes for a nice change when you're tired of the Affeldt's-curve-makes-Prince-look-like-a-fool-gif.

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DrBGiantsfan
DrBGiantsfan

I don't see Mijaries as a replacement for Affeldt.  At this point, Mijares is a straight LOOGY while Affeldt is a guy they can afford to leave in against RH batters and who can go a full inning and even more if necessary.   Maybe Rags can teach Mijares another pitch and turn him into something more, but you can't count on that.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

DrBGiantsfan The problem is that historically Affeldt hasn't been very good against RHBs. So while I agree that he's better than Mijares right now, I'm not sure he's three-years, $18M better. But then again, it's not my money.

DrBGiantsfan
DrBGiantsfan

Chris Quick DrBGiantsfan I'm not sure how you arrive at that conclusion.  Affeldt has been a Giant for 4 seasons now. Here are his xFIP's against LH batters for those seasons:  2012  2.67, 2011  2.55, 2010  3.66, 2009  4.33.  Here are his xFIP's against RH batters over the same span:  2012  3.90, 2011  3.97, 2010  3.98, 2009  3.04.  

If anything, he has historically had more trouble against LH batters and that's where his game has improved the most over the years.  He has actually been quite consistent and effective against RH batters.

DrBGiantsfan
DrBGiantsfan

Chris Quick DrBGiantsfan Ah, but he has been good enough to leave him in there against a RH batter or two which enables him to pitch complete innings and sometimes even more than 1 inning.  You can't say that about Mijares or Lopez, or very many LH relievers.

blandwilson
blandwilson

Chris Quick DrBGiantsfan 

But haven't you framed the data incorrectly (or at least tendentiously)?  So, Affeldt ranks middle of the pack relative to ALL pitchers given the parameters you've set, but isn't the relevant question how he ranks relative to other lefties?  I don't know what the data says, but if Affeldt is (say) in the top quarter of lefties vs righties, then he's going to have value that is obscured by the context you've given.  Strategically, you can't always go according to match ups (though the Giants certainly seem to try), so you'd like to have a lefty who has a shot at getting out the sandwiched righty.  In that case, what matters is how well he gets righties out relative to other lefties, right?  In short, doesn't the evaluation of effective (or "very good") shift according to handed-ness, and, if so, how does Affeldt rank in that respect? (To be clear, I don't know what the data says, so Affeldt may be middling relative to lefties as well, but I think what that data says is important to the framing of the argument.)

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

DrBGiantsfan Chris Quick If you look at relievers between 2010 and 2012 that pitched at least 25 innings, but no more than 125 innings against RHB, you end up with 408 pitchers. Of that group, Affedlt's ranks 218th in wOBA against with .320. 

Similar pitchers are: Kerry Wood (.320); Tony Sipp (.320); Matt Caps (.321); Casey Coleman (.321); Jamey Wright (.323); and Henry Sosa (.324). Right-handed batters have hit a career slash of .262/.343/.400 against Affeldt. So, historically speaking, he hasn't "been very good" against RHB.