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Superfluous
Superfluous

This is one of those situations where you have to think as an organization a bit more than as a team. I think regardless of the player comparisons over the short-term, the organization's stance needs to be to play their cornerstone player over all others if he is healthy. 2010 aside, Pablo has produced for this team and played his heart out -- and it just so happens he's a very talented player, too, and more talented than the alternatives. The Giants aren't going to magically miss the postseason from not replacing Pablo with Arias, so to me, you continue to pencil Panda in the lineup if he's healthy enough, then see what he does down the stretch and the postseason. If we followed this "who is better right now" line of reasoning, then Brandon Belt never has his second hot streak of the season because he'll have been benched after July. 

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nickcage49
nickcage49

I don't agree. Arias is the better bet right now. Reason being that he is a far better defender and is hitting better now. Plus he can run. He fits the Giants style of play much better then Sandoval. Without power Sandoval is virtually worthless to this team.You also didn't mention something important. Pablo's weight. He appears at least 30 pounds heavier then the start of the season. So he can't hit, can't field and can't run. Not a guy I want batting third or even in my lineup right now.If he's not healthy then get healthy. Until then he can be a pinch hitter.But this situation with his weight has to stop and stop soon. I really love the guy, but like many other fans, I'm fed up. We all love the loveable Panda, but you know what, the act wears thin when he doesn't do his job and doesn't do it partly because he's not in shape. This is a sport. The guy is an athlete and he sure as hell doesn't look like one.The hamstring injury was a great example. Do you think a guy in good shape would have had that injury? I think not. It would have never happened last year or in 2009.It's the 2010 Panda all over again and right now his chances of having a reduced role in the post season are very good indeed.I'd trade the guy while he still has value. I hear the Marlins need a third baseman. Pablo and Ozzie are a match made in heaven. They can eat rice and beans to their hearts content!

Superfluous
Superfluous

nickcage49 The most relevant part of what you started typing was the word "now". It's taken a great hot streak by Arias and a bad cold streak by Arias to even get their respective OPS's within shouting range of each other. You also need to remember -- Sandoval has been, up until perhaps right now -- considered a cornerstone of the Giants' future. Arias? Um, no. So if you want to have the best idea of what you're going to do with your club personnel-wise at 3B for 2013 and beyond, you need to play Sandoval. How Panda finishes the season and performs in the playoffs, assuming the Giants get there, is needed data for the offseason and the future. 

ogc
ogc

Great analysis, but you should have noted that after he returned from his hamate bone injury but before he had his hamstring injury, he hit .288/.336/.460/.796, which was not that bad, still above average, though not Pablo-like, with a 174 ISO, which is very good, but again, not Panda-like.  It was after his hamstring injury when everything fell apart, offensively.

I'm hopeful that Bochy's adjustments of his mechanics will help soon.  It takes a little while to make a physical mechanical change like that, before it becomes normal.

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Frozendarkness
Frozendarkness

My biggest confusion is why Panda is batting third. Your best batter bats third and it's not like panda needs any protection, you never have to come into the strike zone with the panda. I'd say bump panda down to fifth for a while

mcborden88
mcborden88

Frozendarkness I think the reason you bat him in front of posey is that he'll get better pitches to hit, and you need him swinging at balls in the strike zone...

Frozendarkness
Frozendarkness

mcborden88 Frozendarkness The thing is, protection only works for someone who's good at not swinging at balls, forcing pitchers to come in because they don't want to walk him. In this sense, buster posey would make much more sense getting protected than pablo sandoval. 

ariess
ariess

Sandoval will break out of his slump at any time. 

GrainHopsData
GrainHopsData

Nice post calming the panic. Did you do a significance test on the pre/post hamate-injury distances? Or, if anybody can clue me in on how to find these data, I'll check.

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jcoria
jcoria

I have to disagree wrt Arias. Arias has been a much better than Sandoval since the ASG. I think Arias starting would give us a better lineup at this time.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

jcoria Even if you want to be conservative, Sandoval probably has a projected 40-50 points of wOBA on Arias over the remainder of the season. Arias has been a good player for the Giants, but he should A) never face RHP and B) never start over Pablo unless Pablo is hurt. Betting on Arias over a guy (even while dinged up) with star level talent is a bad bet every time.

jcoria
jcoria

Chris Quick I hear you. I just keep thinking about their lines since the break:Arias .330/.364/.524 vs. Sandoval .250/.305/.341And I have a really hard time convincing myself that Sandoval should continue hacking away, when we're so close to being able to close the door on the Dodgers. I'm sure as soon as Panda has a good game, I'll forget about all this Arias nonsense.

Superfluous
Superfluous

jcoria Chris Quick Even if those lines held up the rest of the season, it's pretty much impossible for it to have any bearing on whether or not the Giants win the NL West. Then, going into the playoffs, what do you do? Do you still start Arias over Panda, and if so, what are you going to tell Sandoval in the offseason and going into next season? Yes, we love you, but we'll replace you with anyone hitting well that can field your position as soon as you're having a cold streak coming off of injury? Not exactly a great way to treat your players. 

Seth94110
Seth94110

jcoria Chris Quick I don't think Arias should start over Pablo in general, but considering this week the Giants face 4 lefties in a row (Francis @ COL, then Skaggs-Miley-Corbin @ ARI) I would expect to see Arias get a start or two and give Panda a breather (and maybe a kick in the pants that his spot in the lineup is not 100% secure). I really wouldn't mind seeing him moved down in the order, giving Posey and Belt more PA's (although its hard to justify hitting Pence cleanup right now). BUT there might be something to be said about the pitches he sees batting in front of Posey (hypothetically more strikes, as opposed to if he had Blanco/Crawford behind him, where he'll see more balls, and probably swing at them).

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k9_2458
k9_2458

It would probably help if he didn't pick up 20-30 pounds between opening day and September

TSF
TSF

k9_2458 What we're seeing with Sandoval is new precedent. None of his prior trials (weight, injury, distress) ever seemed to affect him much in isolation. He was fat in 2009, where he put up an MVP season. He was injured and grew fat in 2011, but put up a season that was arguably better. But in 2010, when he was enormous and going through divorce, it had a significant thumbprint on his defensive play.The impact of his weight is probably exaggerated, but in isolation it hasn't been a historical problem and Sandoval actually rates positively in fielding metrics this year. But I suspect the weight - or more likely, general lack of fitness - has left Panda more susceptible to injury, particularly that hamstring one. The combination of the power drain from his dominant side plus the hamstring injury is certainly dampening his offense, but I agree with Chris that there's no real alternative. Swapping Belt (.359 OBP) and Sandoval (.333) in the order might have some short term positives,  but team politics are likely going to block that move.

FANsince1976
FANsince1976

TSF k9_2458 I doubt Pablo gained 30 lbs since April. That's pretty hard to do. It's just so frustationg that Pablo can;t stay healthy. Begoe the injuries came this season he was hitting. Through May 2nd in 24 games he was hitting .316/.375/.537, 5HR, 6 doubles, 15 RBI, 16 R, 8 BB, 10 K, That's pretty much the 2009 version of Pablo. When healthy I think the 2009 version is the "real" Panda. Oh he won't hit .330 every year of course but close to it. But can he stay healthy??  

ariess
ariess

Enough with the weight, when he hit 330 he was heavy. Injuries are another issue, and plenty of normal weight and thin guys get injuries. Play Panda at third, and Arias at short.  Panda is still a better hitter than Crawford.  The other day the Rocks walked Panda to pitch to Posey, so to say the Panda is not a threat, is not how the other teams see it.

TSF
TSF

k9_2458 

blanktx
blanktx

k9_2458 That was my thinking too.  In fact, both my son and my wife watched a game for the first time in awhile and independently commented that Panda looked bigger. In last nights game, I think he would have been safe on the double play he hit into had he been trimmer.  That would have put runners on 1st and 3rd with 1 out for Posey instead of a runner on 3rd with 2 outs. Posey then hit a deep fly ball to right. 

nickcage49
nickcage49

blanktx k9_2458 Bingo! He's a double play machine and I don't mean defensively. The Rocks did everything but kick the ball to each member of the infield and he was still out by a step. PATHETIC!