Buster Posey is very good

Published by on August 6, 2012 | 12 Responses

Since the All-Star break (ahoy, arbitrary endpoint!) Buster Posey has batted .456/.506/.772 over 79 at-bats. Over that time period, he’s launched six home runs, smacked seven doubles, and walked nine times. Posey is posting career highs in ISO (.202, career .181); walk-rate (10.2%, career 8.5%); and wRC+ (150, career 132). In fact, among 23 qualified first basemen in baseball, by wRC+, Posey is hitting better than 21 of them – only Edwin Encarnarcion (161 wRC+) and Joey Votto (181) are hitting better.

Did I mention that Posey is a catcher? And he’s hitting like an elite-level first baseman? Take a minute to let that point sink in. He’s hitting like a first baseman. He’s playing catcher – and quite well. How long Posey can catch long term is probably still a question that’ll have to be addressed at some point, but he’s looked great – better than anyone could have anticipated – this year. Posey’s season has been incredible on so many levels: his performance, his health, his … everything. Among many talented players, he’s the face of the franchise. I’m not one to subscribe to the mumbo jumbo of “clubhouse intangibles” but in Posey’s case, I’d probably make the exception. He’s fantastic.

So while I could go on and on and write a love letter to Buster Posey, I wanted to see where Posey ranked among his catching brethren for his 2012 season.

After running a Baseball-Reference search, I came up with the following:

  • By WAR/600, Posey is on track for a 6.2 WAR season. Since 1970, 31 catchers have posted WAR/600 rates of six or higher. Since 1980, just 20 catchers have posted WAR/600 rates of six or better.
  • That list, to name a few, is composed of Carlton Fisk (two times), Gary Carter (six times), Johnny Bench (four times), and Mike Piazza (three times).
  • For comparison, over that same time (1970-2012) there have been 42 first basemen that have posted WAR/600 rates of six or higher.
  • And it almost goes without saying, but Posey is on track to post the greatest modern catching season in Giants history. Posey has already tied Dick Dietz’s 1970 season (4.2 WAR) and he should come close to surpassing the franchise’s all-time best catching season: Hall-of-Famer Roger Bresnahan’s 1908 season (5.6 WAR).

The Giants’ season has been full of surprises: Melky’s domination of National League pitchers, Matt Cain’s perfect game, Ryan Vogelsong continuing to carve up hitters … but Posey’s comeback from a horrific, horrific injury might be the most inspiring thing I can think of.

In summation:

Buster Posey.

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a dude in CO
a dude in CO

Has anybody ever thought of of Posey at 2nd when his catching is done?  Maybe he is too big for it now as a catcher but I think it keeps some of his advantage by not making him into a 1B.

FANsince1976
FANsince1976

Buster does it again! He's hit a three-run home run in the top of the first inning! Esta en fuego!

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ariess
ariess

I am trying to go back and find my posts from a few years ago, when he was just being drafted. I wrote at that time that it would not surprise me if he will be a 25 to 30 homerun guy, because he has a beautiful swing with potential Jeff Kent like power to right center, and that it would not surprise me if he made more contact than Kent did. It is hard to tell in College, but I cannot remember an FSU basebal player who  dominated the campus like Posey did.

RogerM
RogerM

ariess Unfortunately for Buster, he plays in a park that absolutely kills that beautiful power to right center.   I can think of 5 balls he's hit out there this year off the top of my head that have been outs or doubles that would have been long HR most anywhere else.

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FANsince1976
FANsince1976

I think people put way too much emphasis on scouting reports in terms of future potential. Scouts are very good at describing a young prospect's current baseball skills. Scouts are not very good at predicting how a 18-21 year old prospect will be production-wise 6-7 years down the line. I think Buster can have several 25-30 HR seasons in his prime. And this season Buster has a chance to become just the second SF Giants catcher to have a 100 RBI season and the first one since 1970! Go Buster!!

RogerM
RogerM

FANsince1976 It's all relative.  Scouts aren't very good at it until you consider a) how fundamentally difficult it is to do, and b) how much worse non-scouts are at it.

FANsince1976
FANsince1976

RogerM I consider it to be impossible to do even by seasoned scouts. There are just way too many "course corrections" a young prospect takes in their development. At age 18 Stephen Strasburg and Mike Piazza where considered complete non-prospects. Albert Pujols was 13th round pick and was considered fat and unathletic. At age 18 current A's GM Billy Beane was considered a can't-miss prospect. 

FANsince1976
FANsince1976

RogerM I consider it to be impossible to do even by seasoned scouts. There are just way too many "course corrections" a young prospect takes in their development. At age 18 Stephen Strasburg and Mike Piazza where considered complete non-prospects. Albert Pujols was 13th round pick and was considered fat and unaesthetic. At age 18 Billy Beane was considered a can't-miss prospect. 

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RogerM
RogerM

BTW, I asked a few major prospect mavens about Buster's power (which prior to the draft most had pegged at 12-15 HR level) and John Manuel had an interesting response, saying that scouts are often skeptical of FSU players true power, because the home stadium plays so live.  He also said most scouts liked Buster more as a Pitcher coming out of HS than as a position player.  He's said before that in general the scouting community underestimated Posey's athleticism coming out of college, which, given that he was the consensus 1-1 player is really saying something.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

RogerM The power angle is really interesting because all the pre-draft stuff seemed to indicate he'd have average power in his peak years, but nothing approaching the .180-.200 ISO range.

RogerM
RogerM

Looking at the YT clip Grant posted on MCC this morning, it's hard not to reach across time and connect Buster to Will.  He'll be the guy that the  generation of baby Giants fans will remember as their favorite player growing up.

RogerM
RogerM

Arbitrary endpoint is arbitrary, but OTOH the worry coming into this year was that Posey would wear down badly and be close to worthless down the stretch (due to injury rehab and simply not playing in a year).  That makes the July/Aug. uptick all the more impressive and important.  Even if he returns to "normal" the rest of the season his performance will be incredible given the legitimate concerns entering the year.  He's answered a lot of questions, and the power really doesn't seem accidental in any way (as for instance the Joe Mauer fluke power year).  He's looking to drive the ball and alot of his homers have been monsters.  If anything he's hitting for less than his natural power because AT&T suppresses some of it.  He's answering questions in a big way this year.