Intermittent lineup assessment

Published by on June 19, 2012 | 10 Responses

As of late, the Giants’ lineup looks suprisngly … competent? Here’s the current lineup sorted by adjusted on-base plus slugging (OPS+):

Rk Pos PA AB OPS+
1 LF Melky Cabrera 289 269 165
2 3B Pablo Sandoval 141 129 136
3 C Buster Posey 244 217 131
4 1B Brandon Belt 169 138 130
5 CF Angel Pagan 279 258 124
6 RF Gregor Blanco 211 181 122
7 2B Ryan Theriot 153 142 84
8 SS Brandon Crawford 226 207 74
9 3B Joaquin Arias 166 153 71
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/19/2012.

A few thoughts after looking at that:

  1. Melky Cabrera is amazing, but you already knew that. Melky’s hitting like someone grafted bits of Ted Williams onto a cyborg Tony Gwynn. It’s a beautiful thing.
  2. Sandoval, Posey, Pagan, Belt, and Blanco have all been quite good with the bat. Pagan’s season, while it’s been up and down, really has been a nice surprise. He started off so poorly, but has been a much better hitter than the first few weeks would have indicated.
  3. Gregor Blanco has been one of my favorite Giants this year. His combination of OBP-ability and defense has been a treat.
  4. Brandon Belt’s OPS+ of 130 nearly matches Buster Posey (131) and Pablo Sandoval (136). And that’s amazing for a guy that, by all accounts, sports talk radio left for dead in May.

So, yeah, Brandon Belt is hitting quite nicely — maybe the most pleasant surprise of late. Belt’s June has been full of positive indicators. He’s striking out less than ever (14.6%) and he’s walking a ton (18.8%). Belt’s first three at-bats in last night’s win over the Angels were very impressive. Belt saw 11 total pitches over the first three ABs; he walked twice on eight straight balls; fouled off the 10th pitch; and on the 11th pitch — Belt’s third AB — he roped a double into RF.

Belt’s a bit of a Rorschach Test — depending on how you view him, you’ll see what you want to see — but I think even when he was “struggling” he was showing positive signs: plate discipline, most noted. And it goes without saying that if the Giants want to contend this year, they’ll need Belt to be an average – or above-average – player. I won’t go into full blown Belt Love Mode, but this post does a nice job of highlighting some of the good points about Belt’s year.

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Chris Quick
Chris Quick

I'm not sure Arias is the better defender at shortstop. My eye balls tell me that Crawford is a good couple of steps above Arias on defense. Neither can hit, though.

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TSF
TSF

The big turnaround for Pagan came, I believe, when the Giants took him out of leadoff. Yes, he had a year where his OBP was great for a leadoff hitter, and Pagan's speed tool is more common of leadoff hitters, but he's profiled best as a middle-of-the-order bat, and he's been very effective batting lower in the lineup.

 

On that train of thought, I think central to this team's "competence" is player synergy. There aren't any superstar caliber players on the Giants right now (though Cabrera is as close as SFG can get), so the whole lineup needs to stay in character to remain consistently threatening. I think of Blanco right now - he's mired in a slump where he's striking out a lot and having trouble getting on base, and that was preceded by an impressive run where he hit a bunch of home runs. While the power flash was awesome, we have to worry about Blanco falling for the temptation to hit home runs more often because of his recent success, and shying away from his best tool in speed and patience. For example, Blanco has only attempted a bunt three times since the start of the San Diego series, but he's also hit three of his four home runs. And that's four times as many home runs as he's hit in his entire career.

 

I disagree with removing Arias. While I'm not impressed with his bat presence and he definitely looks outmatched (as does Hector Sanchez), the team is so precipitously balanced they maximize offense by minimizing mistakes. I feel that's an important distinction from maximizing runs, as the team tried to do earlier in the season. Airtight defense is all but necessary for Lincecum, Zito and Vogelsong to allow them to get away with how they pitch.

RogerM
RogerM

 @TSF I'd say there was no "big turnaround" for Pagan at all.  Just the normal fluctuations of the long season. There will be more coming, no doubt, slumps and hot spells both, as for instance he put up a .760 OPS in april, .884 in May, and .643 thus far in June.

fwoty oz
fwoty oz

He's using fonts to display icons so it should be displaying as a downward shaped triangle (indicating it's sorted by OPS+ descending).

 

6 is the normal value for that character so if you're not getting the triangle font for some reason you'll see a 6.

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Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Also, the team might want to consider playing Arias less. OMGDEFENSE aside, he looks exactly like a guy that couldn't hit AAA pitching, which he probably is.

RogerM
RogerM

 @Chris Quick So to sum, we have a MI full of FAIL but competent major leaguers pretty much everywhere else.  I'll take it!  (But do something about that MI, Giantz Brass!)