As Affeldt said, it's really tough to know what you can do but not be able to do it. Lincecum can likely still feel what its like to completely dominate hitters, so it must be frustrating to not be able to do so. On the Murph and Mac show a while back, they had a "Performance Analyst" on the show who had worked with Zito in the off-season. Aside from analyzing motions with high speed cameras, this guy (a former Braves pitcher) also analyzed Zitos psychological state. He concluded that Zito was just to sensitive to pitch in a sport that wreaks such emotional havoc on players, particularly pitchers. Maybe that is what is happening with Lincecum. He can't distance himself from the analysts, fans, critics, performance, etc and just pitch. A great comparison point is Vogelsong. He doesn't pitch much faster, and at both of their bests, Vogey can't touch Lincecum in terms of stuff. But so far this year, Vogelsong has had the confidence to throw what he wants when he wants to and get that key pitch in there to finish an inning. That's something that Timmy hasn't been able to do. 

Velocity is a factor, as noted here, but there is some thought that this loss is due to his decision to drop 20 pounds during the off-season and that his body, needing to be more finetuned than most athletes, let alone baseball players, was still adjusting as he headed into the season.   In any case, he's still striking out a lot of batters, so while velocity is a factor, it is probably not a major cause.  Many pitchers can pitch effectively with lower velocity, there would be an adjustment period as they re-learn how to pitch.  

He could be turning the corner on velocity though.  The reports from the media was that Lincecum was regularly hitting 93 MPH in his last few starts, something he had trouble doing earlier in the season.  Fangraphs had his average MPH at 91.8 in his prior game, albeit he was almost 2 MPH less the prior game, and mostly around that previously in this season, and was down to 90.6 in his latest game.  He has been trending higher as well, as seen here:  http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=5705&position=P&pitch=FA

I think that his main problems have been mental.  I think that the big money contract he signed finally tipped him over mentally, putting him on similar ground as Zito, where you consciously think about living up to your contract while you are pitching.  That changes the way your body reacts to situations (see Malcolm Gladwell's article on the art of failure - and choking - which is at his website; explains modes of learning and reactions), making it react more like a beginner than an experience pro.  That's why he's been saying all that stuff about preferring short term contracts, he's been afraid of the pressure of living up to that long-term contract.  Hence why he talked about not wanting the fans to hate him, as he has seen happen to many a highly paid Giants player who is under-performing.

Actually, by one standard, that is a well-pitched game.  Baseball Forecaster (Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com) has a stat called PQS where a 4 or 5 is considered a dominating start.  It is a saber-metric attempt at perfecting the Quality Start metric that baseball has been using for decades.  His last start is a 4 PQS start:  pitched 6.0+ innings (7 hits), same or less hits as innings (only 4) , strikeouts within 2 of IP (6 K's), and 1 or less homers (1).  Each earned one point for a total of 4 PQS (he could have earned his last point by having double the K's that he has BB's; here he would have needed to give up 3 or less walks since he struck out 6). 

Also, at 9 walks plus hits, vs. 7 IP, that's still pretty good too.

It was explained in one of the media blogs:  throwing the slider caused a blister of some sort on one of his fingers, it was not a major issue, just something extra to have to handle.

Can anybody say sudden rapid decline of Sam McDowall.  Lincecum is not doing very well with

runners in scoring position. He is often pitching from behind, and frequently when he gets ahead

he has much more trouble putting batters away than previously.  His K rate in that regard is somewhat

deceptive.  When he needs to hit a corner to get a key out, he either walks the batter, or throws a

hittable pitch. There are plenty of guys who can get by with a 91 mph fastball, but control is key.

Remember h ow bad Matt Herges became with the giants.  A year or two later he was pitching as if

that horrific streak had never happened.  It may be a good idea that we did not sign Timmy long term.

His refusal to sign a long term contract may have cost him a veritable fortune. 

I think the giants have another problem.  They lead the league in unearned runs by a wide margin.

The assumption is that there is no injury, but didn't he try to stop throwing the slider because it was causing pain? I have to assume the slider wasn't causing him pain every time he threw it in past years, so something has changed.

My biggest fear is that he struggles through an entire, sub-par season, and THEN has surgery, costing himself (and us) two seasons of his career. Kinda like Brian Wilson just did.

While I think finding some of that lost velocity would help Lincecum out, I don't think it would automatically return him to his 2008-2009 dominance. His walk rate was up and his strikeout rate was down last year even though his average velocity was almost identical to his 2009 season. It's kind of a head scratcher, but I would think that he can continue to dominate if he gets his command under control. 

I think the problem with Timmy, which has been griped about for weeks now, is his command. but not just the fact that he's missing the strike zone, it's that he's either middle down the plate up with his breaking balls, or 10 feet before the plate or ten feet away from the plate. his misses just aren't close. it's not a good thing to throw two straight floaters to Goldschmidt no matter what Kruk/Kuip said about that changeup, it was middle in right in the middle of the plate. 

I agree that Timmy has been average so far, but it's too soon to put the fork in him just yet.  4 hits and 1 earned run over 7 is hardly a stinker  (and before giving up a lot of runs in one inning, he started pretty well in his last start as well).  Even if his velocity diminishes I'm picking (hoping) that he has enough other skills and mental strengths to be more than just a serviceable starter.

Nobody really has a concrete idea on his struggles, but I'd say it goes to the conditioning he did in the offseason, for lack of any other obvious culprits. We know in the 2010-2011 offseason he bulked up to regain his velocity, and I remember seeing him through a 96 mph pitch that year. That number is quite vivid because it was also the fastest pitch I saw Brian Wilson throw all year. Although the 2011 version of The Freak he wasn't Cy Young Lincecum, he was an acceptable All-Star Lincecum.

Over the 2011-2012 offseason, we know Lincecum shed a lot of pounds because he didn't feel comfortable in his bulkier body. With his low weight and cut hair, he's evoking images of his 2008 self, and that's clearly not working because he doesn't throw 98 mph anymore. He didn't even throw 98 mph last year. He's still throwing like a power pitcher, but doesn't have the power to make his pitches all that effective. Then there's the issue of his "deception", but I never put a lot of stock in that. The deception from his windup felt more like a lucky coincidence and was never going to be a lasting advantage, Lincecum would live and die by his velocity.

What we've seen with Lincecum is he's rather slow to adjust. He resisted Buster Posey longer than anyone else on the staff and only put himself together in time for the postseason. After an uncomfortable year bulked up, he's trying to fit in an old 2008 uniform that he's already outgrown.

A decline in Lincecum's velocity was inevitable, as all pitchers degrade with age, but some pitchers have different sensitivities toward the change. Barry Zito was never a power pitcher but he undervalued his fastball as a setup for his offspeed pitches - without it, his entire arsenal rusted. Zito's always been a decent or good pitcher when he can locate well, but any pitcher who has good location can survive in baseball. Yet dominance isn't realistic for pitchers who aren't Maddux-stye geniuses.

I think Lincecum can still be successful, but probably not this year. If he conditions in the offseason and choreographs his mechanics for a bulkier frame, he can slow his velocity erosion and hopefully won't sacrifice control. But for a player who changes slowly, I would be surprised if Lincecum was able transition throughout this year. Maybe the Giants could ask Barry Bonds a thing or two about layering pounds of muscle on a small frame...

I mean.. I don't think 7 IP with 1 earned run is ever a stinker, no matter how good the pitcher might have been in the past. Yes, there were 5 walks which isn't great, but there were also 6 Ks and only 4 hits. It's just a good solid start. It's not Lincecum's fault the offense only generated a run - if they'd stayed hot and pushed over 5 runs, we'd be celebrating this as a return to solid form from Lincecum.

Personally I think Lincecum get back to near the top. He's had a very rough start, for sure. His conditioning seems to have been poor coming into the season (I don't know why he lost so much weight in the off-season, that was a dumb idea), and his mechanics have been off and his stamina down. But he's also been really, really unlucky a number of times, including being victim to an endless stream of errors and bloops that have extended innings and put him under constant pressure with men on the bases. He's also apparently had a lot of minor injuries and stuff with his hands this year which has also affected him.

I just don't see that a guy like Lincecum is going to suddenly permanetly turn into a mediocre or worse starter without some sort of significant physical problem, which doesn't seem to be the case. Given his athletic action it's reasonable to assume he might decline earlier than some other pitchers, and maybe have longer periods where he can't find his machanics, but there's no reason to believe he's going to just fall off a cliff like he has to start the season, and not recover. The days where he throws 96 mph heaters past guys are gone - but that hasn't hurt Cain, and Lincecum's stuff still seems pretty awesome when he can locate it. I just don't see any reason to think that at some point this season Lincecum isn't going to return to his pretty dominant self... hopefully in time to push the Giants down the stretch to the division title.