Snot rockets for five more years!

Published by on April 16, 2012 | 9 Responses

So, the biggest news of the day — besides Brandon Belt getting another rare start — is that the Giants have signed Madison Bumgarner to a five-year extension (with some club options) worth $35M (maybe up to $40M if Bumgarner qualifies for super two status). Bumgarner’s deal will buy out at least one of his free agency years, and potentially more, depending on the 2018 and 2019 club options. At the moment, it’s looking like the club options will cost the Giants $14M per year; if Bumgarner wins the Cy Young Award in either of the option years, an escalator will kick in and raise the option years to $16M.

Whew, that’s a lot to process. The deal in total could be worth $70.5M if Bumgarner hits all of his triggers.

I haven’t done the math because I often find the WAR per dollars earned template that’s used for judging contracts a little fuzzy, but at first blush, this seems like a really, really nice deal for the Giants. The Giants get some stability over his arbitration years (2012-2016) and buy out at least one FA year (2017) with club options that could cover a two additional years at very reasonable rates. Club options are extremely team friendly and if Bumgarner continues to excel, the Giants will make out like bandits in the back-end of this deal. There is also a limited no-trade clause in this deal. Bumgarner can block trades up to eight teams.

I’m starting to run out of superlative adjectives to drop on Bumgarner, but here’s the basics: at 22-years-old he’s extremely young and good.

If you run a Baseball-Reference search that looks at starting pitchers since 1960 with at least 300 innings pitched by age 22, Bumgarner ranks in the following categories…

#19 in ERA+ (119)
#12 in strikeouts per nine innings (7.80)
#6 in walks per nine innings (2.11)
#2 in strikeout per walk ratio (3.70)
#13 in quality start percentage (64.8%)

He’s good. Of course, pitchers, as we all know, can be mercurial. Our BB-Ref list has guys on it like Mark Fidrych, Mark Prior, Ismael Valdez, Scott Kazmir, and Dontrelle Willis; players that had success in their early careers, but struggled later. Bumgarner is also rubbing elbows with some truly great company. Great players like: Bert Blyleven, Frank Tanana, and Bret Saberhagen to name just a few.

So, like most deals, there’s a little risk hiding in there, but on the whole it looks like a really, really good deal for the Giants. The Giants lock up a core piece of their rotation for awhile, and Bumgarner, who probably realizes that pitchers often go sproing, gets some financial security.

Getting this deal done was one of my great hopes for the offseason. Good one, Giants.

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Jarrod
Jarrod

On an unrelated sidenote, the Giants have now went 175 consecutive at-bats without a homerun.  Brandon Crawford hasn't hit the ball out of the infield in his last 10 at-bats.  

RogerM
RogerM

OT: but how long before we have to start talking about Crawford's defensive problems (particularly on balls hit right at him).  His bat might play if it's combined with plus defense, but I'm not seeing plus defense so far.  There were four plays he didn't make last night that an average major league SS should have made and while that's an extreme example, it's not an aberration. He's been giving away outs in the field so far this year.  And with the ugliness that is his bat, he just can't continue to do that.

ogc
ogc

Nice analysis to show how superlative he is, but it would have been more helpful if you had listed how many pitchers qualified under the parameters you had set.  #19 in ERA+ is great if there were 300 pitchers, not so much if there were only 30 in your query set.

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KennyCupp
KennyCupp

Agreed on all points. Its amazing how contracts for two players who arguably aren't in the top 3 of recognizable faces on the team (I'd argue Lincecum/Posey/Sandoval on that point) can make you feel secure in the future for this franchise. I grew up in Vallejo during the Will Clark era - and I know what I'm saying may be sounding like blasphemy to some - but Posey is approaching Will Clark status w/ the fans and media. Definitely hope he's next on the agenda.

ogc
ogc

I had never thought of that comparison, nice one, but I would say that Posey is already beyond Clark, as while Clark homered against Nolan Ryan in his first AB, Posey led the team to a World Series Championship in his first full season (he also outhomered Clark).  I have to think that he's next given what the Giants have been doing with their young core set of players.  Hopefully a nice long one like the one Longoria got.

KennyCupp
KennyCupp

@ogc I don't disagree that Posey has actually done more for the team in a results oriented basis....but Will The Thrill has held the attention of the Bay for damn near 25 years. We raise racehorses and my dad actually named a racehorse after Will. I have legitimate A's fans as friends (shocking) who love Will more than most any of their own players. If Posey reaches that standard - that would truly be an interesting dynamic.

ajp
ajp

they are going to need Madison if Timmy continues to suck like he has of late

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TSF
TSF

What I love most about this deal is it gives the Giants payroll flexibility during the years when their position players get expensive. This is just what the doctor ordered.

AndyG
AndyG

 @TSF But it kept our hands tied this year from a decent sized investment in a proven outfielder who got expensive.  Meanwhile, Beltran is tearing it up in St. Louis (.391, 5HR, 7 RBI, 1.022 OPS)