Additional thoughts on Matt Cain

Published by on April 2, 2012 | 16 Responses

Some more thoughts on the five-year contract extension that Matt Cain signed today.

* Per ESPN’s TruMedia, only four starting pitchers — Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hammels — had lower wOBA against scores last year. Batters averaged a .262 wOBA against Matt Cain in 2011. That really is a remarkable number. The league average wOBA against starting pitchers was .308. Cain is a very, very good pitcher. Even if he doesn’t always get credit (why hello, win-loss records) for it.

* Here’s something that caught me a little off guard: Matt Cain, longest tenured Giant.

* Cain ends up with an average annual value of $22.5M, a little higher than what I had guessed back in December. At the time, I had Cain pegged at $20M AAV.

* Cain’s deal guarantees him $112.5M in new money through 2017. Remember, Cain was already set to earn $15M this season. It’s a lot of money, but Cain’s health history has been good, and I think people sometimes overlook that this is his age 27 season; Cain broke into the majors at 20-years-old. The Giants are buying Cain’s age 27 to age 32 seasons.

* Any contract, to any pitcher, that’s over four years in length gives me the worries, but I think you could make the argument that with the Giants’ current rotation — and foreseeable rotation in the future, and the state of farm — the team really needs a guy like Matt Cain to supplement things. The Giants don’t have any high impact players in the pipeline right now, and if the team let Cain walk, things take a hit pretty quickly.

* I also think that people will worry that Cain could end up like Barry Zito; a player that’s vastly overpaid. I’m not sure I see that point just yet. Pretty much all of Cain’s statistics are trending in the right direction. Whereas Zito was showing signs of trouble as he was leaving Oakland. Make no mistake: forking over $100M+ to any pitcher is a risky move, but Cain is moving in the right direction. He’s helped by his home park some, but I think it’s something that’s sometimes overstated. His career home / road splits aren’t that different from one another. (3.66 FIP at home; 3.71 FIP on the road.)

* For the next two years, the Giants will keep the Cain – Lincecum – Bumgarner trio in San Francisco. That’s huge for a team that’s been so offensively challenged during the Sabean era. (Also, could we please get Madison Bumgarner inked to a deal that would potentially buy out a couple of his FA years?)

So, basically, it all comes down to Matt Cain. He’s been a good-to-great pitcher for the Giants and the extension saves something of a bad offseason. It doesn’t redeem everything, and it’s a risky move, but I am very happy to have Cain in San Francisco for the next 5-6 years.

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Phil
Phil

"His career home / road splits aren’t that different from one another. (3.66 FIP at home; 3.71 FIP on the road.)" I study stats; when I read something like that, the first thing that jumps out at me is significance. I really doubt those numbers significantly differ.

 

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Phil
Phil

 @Chris Quick Yeah I guess I could have worded it a little better. I meant to make it sound like I was agreeing with you.

RogerM
RogerM

You know a contract that I think gets really undervalued strangely enough is the Kevin Brown deal.  Of course, it ended badly as anybody could have predicted, but the Dodgers got a ton of value out from Brown during the first five years of the deal (22.1 fWAR even with the completely lost 2002; over the entire 7 year deal he was worth 26.2 fWAR) and then pawned a decent amount of the crappy backend off on the Yankees.  Over the long haul it seems like it was a win for LA to me.  

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KennyCupp
KennyCupp

Can't we just enjoy the fact that we've locked up our best homegrown player for the long term for a few days before reveling in the negativity that permeates the chatter? Do you really think Cain's deal would have gotten done if we'd have been flitting around with MadBum's agent so that Cain's reps could use that against Sabean? Lets just be happy, if only until the Giants start out the season 1-5, that we resigned our guy. Perhaps we can save the rhetoric for another time about lamenting that we haven't re-signed a guy to a lengthy deal who's had one productive MLB season in his career.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

 @KennyCupp Not sure that anyone here isn't happy that Cain got signed, or that anyone is "lamenting" anything, really. Rather, I think it makes sense for the Giants to start considering what they want to do with Bumgarner.

 

Buying out some of his FA years seems to make sense.

KennyCupp
KennyCupp

@Chris Quick - Except for the rogues who want to compare this deal to Zito's, you're right. No one is complaining. All I'm suggesting is...lets just bask in the afterglow of the Giants doing something right for one day. Just one. Then we can get back to business about figuring out a way to extend a pitcher who's had one good pro season and appeared broken beyond repair before St. Tidrow fixed him.

k9_2458
k9_2458

 @KennyCupp  @Chris How do you figure One good season? Even if you figure the delayed start in 2010, the postseason helps to bridge the gap to close to a full season and he was pretty great that year too. In 2011 his stats were unbelievable for a 21 year old SP. The Rays have got it right, recognize your talent early and sign them to deals as long as you can. Matt Moore is locked up throughout his arb years and I think what would have been his first FA year. Longoria signed the most ridiculously team-friendly deal ever! The Giants brass could stand to learn a lot from Friedman and his bunch. Bumgarner & Posey would be great places to start.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

The Giants don't seem that interested, at the moment, in extending Bumgarner or trying to buy out any of his FA years. I think it's a little weird.

RogerM
RogerM

 @Chris Quick If he ends up arb eligible after this year then I'd expect they'll put together a package that buys out his arb years and maybe one FA year at that point.  And of course, they'll be on the Timmy clock at the same time.

KimcheeMan
KimcheeMan

Totally agree on MadBum's contract.... After another year of good production it'll be even more expensive to sign away FA years. But let's hope that just 1 more good year from MadBum is enough to convince the Giants brass to sign him long term.

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KimcheeMan
KimcheeMan

 @Chris Quick  I'm assuming that the Giants haven't signed MadBum yet because of what they see as "risk." After one full year of exceptional production they probably think the risk is still too high that he would regress, they are probably waiting for more indications of sustainability. But waiting just means it'll be more expensive to buy out FA years. The Rays are definitely more aggressive in this matter, since they sign guys so early in their young player's careers. But the Rays don't have the financial wherewithal that the Giants have, so they have to be more aggressive.  

marcellosfg
marcellosfg

Well said. I've seen the Zito comments too, and they are baffling. I guess people think because the money is sort of similar, the results will be too? I assume because of reasons?

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

I just think people get nervous when a team hands over this much money to a pitcher, and I really can't say that I blame them on some level. However, Cain is 27-years-old when he signed his extension; Zito was 29-years-old when he came to the Giants. Cain has been A) younger and B) a better pitcher. I think (hope-hope-hope) he'll be alright.

rog61
rog61

on the bright side, Zito really has been quite durable thru the length of his contract.