Are we overlooking Conor?

Published by on February 14, 2012 | 18 Responses

At the moment, the Giants’ farm system is in a bit of a lull. Most prospect analysts currently rank the system around the #25 mark, some worse, and some a little better. The system is in a downswing for a couple of reasons, maybe one of the biggest is that the Giants have graduated a few players to the majors like Brandon Belt that have hurt the overall depth of the system, that seems like a good problem to have.

Earth shattering assertion: the Giants are going to be offensively challenged this season. There’s a huge amount of pressure on Buster Posey to not only come back healthy, but come back and continue hitting. The outfield, overall, looks pretty weak with a Melky-Pagan-Schierholtz configuration taking the field most days. Pablo Sandoval is a terrific hitter, maybe one of the best young hitters in baseball, but he’s largely surrounded by below average offensive pieces. And it remains to be seen if the Giants will give playing time to Brandon Belt who, despite some struggles in 2011, could be the third best hitter on the roster right now.

Another key piece that returns to the equation this season is Freddy Sanchez. The oft-injured second baseman will return for his 11th season of professional baseball this year. Sanchez has never had a bat that would carry a lineup, but for the most part he’s been a league average hitter with good defense at second base. An entirely valuable package if he wasn’t so injury prone.

If Sanchez can’t come back healthy — and make no mistake, it’s almost a certainty that he’ll miss time in 2012 at some point — the Giants’ options at the keystone position are as follows: Ryan Theriot, Mike Fontenot, and Emmanuel Burriss. I didn’t include the comedy Brett Pill option because everyone knows he’s not really a second baseman. And if you didn’t know that, here you go, “Brett Pill really can’t play second base.”

While the combination of Theriotenotiss might not excite you, I have to wonder why the Giants haven’t paid a little more attention to minor league infielder, Conor Gillaspie.

A few statistics and then a question.

First, the top five walk-rates of all Giants’ prospects (minimum of 250 at-bats) in 2011:

Name	                Age	Lev	BB%
Conor Gillaspie	        23	AAA	13.1%
Jarrett Parker	        22	A+	13.0%
Adam Duvall	        22	A	11.6%
Joel Weeks	        26	A/AA	11.6%
Carlos Willoughby	22	A	11.1%

Second, Gillaspie’s career statistics (PA, wOBA, wRC+) in the minor leagues.

Season	Level	PA	wOBA	wrC+
2009	A+	530	.341	101
2010	R	80	.395	124
2010	AA	540	.331	100
2011	AAA	503	.371	109

And third, Gillaspie’s career fielding numbers in the minors.

Year   Age           Tm    Lg   Lev    Aff   G
2008    20      2 Teams 2 Lgs A--Rk SFG 3B  18
2008    20       Giants  ARIZ    Rk SFG 3B   3
2008    20 Salem-Keizer  NORW    A- SFG 3B  15
2009    21      SanJose  CALL    A+ SFG 3B 116
2010    22     Richmond    EL    AA SFG 3B 122
2011    23       Fresno   PCL   AAA SFG LF   2
2011    23       Fresno   PCL   AAA SFG 3B 111
2011    23       Fresno   PCL   AAA SFG 1B   9
4 Seasons                                  378
3B (4 seasons)                          3B 367
1B (1 season)                           1B   9
LF (1 season)                           LF   2

That might seem like overkill, but the essentials boil down to he knows how to take a walk — something desperately lacking on the big club — and he’s been a league average batter at each minor league level. The weird thing is that Gillaspie’s reputation has always been that of a player that wouldn’t defensively stick at third base. Every scouting report that I’ve ever read on him states that he’s a poor defender at third. And yet, here we are, 367 career minor league games at third base. Which makes it even stranger that the Giants haven’t had Gillaspie taking balls at second base at some point in his minor league career. Doubly strange when you consider the overall health of Sanchez and the current major league options at the position.

ZiPS has Gillaspie projected at a slash of .261/.324/ .376 (90 OPS+) which is totally fine for second base. Gillaspie isn’t a flashy prospect by any stretch of the imagination, but if he can even adequately handle second base there’s a real chance that he might have something of a major league career. It’s strange the Giants haven’t moved Gillaspie to second base yet. He’ll most likely start the year in AAA and if he’s taking balls at second when the season opens the Giants might very well be making a statement about second base. Depending on Sanchez’s health and the other options at second, trying to get Gillaspie some feeling for the position seems like a smart idea. We’ll have to wait and see.

—

I have to include this video

Ty Wigginton, major league right fielder.

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Optioned to Fresno
Optioned to Fresno

I think the reason for the non-move has been the competition at second base in the minors and the fact that I don't think he has a lot of athleticism. His defensive profile seems to be very similar to Vinny Catricala's from the Mariners' system: just not a lot of range or athleticism, so third base and first base seem like the only options. Problem is, Gillaspie doesn't have the power to play first, so you're pretty much stuck with him there. Add in the fact that he's played with Nick Noonan, who's been one of the more prized prospects (but has fallen greatly) and then it's no surprise why he has stuck at the position so long. But, as somebody said earlier (OGC perhaps?) if Brett Pill can get a look at second base, why not Gillaspie? I know Gillaspie doesn't have much range or athleticism, but I have read reports that his defense is getting better and his RF/G and error rates have improved from a disastrous SJ campaign in 2009. I also think his bat alone warrants him some consideration, since his bat would be a very valuable commodity to have, especially since I'm skeptical of Burriss and even Fontenot as options as backups to Sanchez next year. Either way, I hope the Giants can move around Gillaspie a little bit this year in Fresno, so he can have some versatility when he gets called up at some point this year.

Zap
Zap

Damn, when the best thing you can say about a major league baseball player is "his ability to avoid the strikeout", it's time to bring up some young blood and break them in at the major league level, paying the price with rookie play that is inconsistent and at times inept, sandwiched between play that is brilliant and exciting ...

gabe sav
gabe sav

excellent article, you've sold me on Gillespie for sure. However I still believe our future middle infield is Posey and Panik. Buster at 2b.

TSF
TSF

I really like Conor, and his story is interesting - a cocky prospect who was humbled by his weaknesses throughout his minor league career - but he's basically a one tool player, two if you count patience. His lack of athleticism necessitated practice at one position, and the Giants also hoped he'd gain enough power to compensate for his below average defense. At 2B, I imagine he would resemble a more patient Jeff Keppinger. If Conor's going to discover another tool, it probably won't happen in the minors or with the Giants. I'm sure people will feel really bad if he follows in Bill Mueller's footsteps and ends up a batting champion somewhere else, but so long as the team is contending and has capable incumbents in the IF, he likely won't get that chance to prove himself. I'll be cheering for him in spring training. I'm curious about why he was never moved to LF, the Giants even experimented with Velez out there.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Good post. I've been wondering why they don't play him at 2B for a long while. When he was drafted, it was noted that he had too little power for 3B, but can't play good enough defense at 2B, so he was a tweener, but some thought that he could do OK defensively at 2B. Given that the Giants have not given him the chance to play 2B, that suggests that they do not believe that he could ever play 2B well enough defensively. But if they are going to throw Brett Pill out there (even if there was a need), I don't see how the Giants don't view Gillapie as future utility guy who provides a good bat off the bench, but no speed and little power. Extending the positions he could play would facilitate that. So why haven't we seen him there yet? But given that the Giants regularly move prospects all around the diamond, showing that they understand the value that is accrued from playing a player at other positions, and that the Giants played Gillaspie at 1B and LF this past season, that implies that the Giants just don't think that Gillapie can even fake the defense at 2B, else they would have thrown him there by now. Given the rumor above that he's taking fielding at 2B, it could be like the Ray Durham situation: Ray was always rumored to move to CF at some point, and he said that he don't mind moving, but he wanted the whole off-season to prep for that, he can't do that cold in the middle of the season. Maybe the Giants finally designated Conor as a future utility guy in 2011, thus resulting in his first games at a position other than 3B, but those are positions where you can go there cold during the season and not look too stupid there. Whereas a 2B needs to learn how to do the double play without getting killed, and feeding the ball to the SS on the front end of the DP. And that makes sense, 2B is considered a premium position for defense, harder to do, whereas 1B and LF are not. Hopefully the rumor is true. I think that would give us a lot more options in terms of bench strength going forward if he can do the transition, because he is a good hitter and has that power that Burriss lacks (but not the speed and defense at premium positions).

@Electricbassguy
@Electricbassguy

I don't think 3B needs to be a power position. If someone can get an .800 OPS in a full season, they're going to be a positive contributor at any position except DH and possibly 1B. Vinny Castilla was a poor player who Coorsflated his way to good power/counting stats. I'd prefer a third baseman who gets on base.

oldjacket
oldjacket

Poor man's Bill Mueller.

rog61
rog61

I've seen that comp a few times before, but I'd say on balance that Mueller was a somewhat significantly better prospect. He was significantly older going up the ladder, but Mueller had a couple of things on Gillaspie IMO. The first, obviously, was Mueller's superior defense at 3B. Gillaspie sounds like he's getting better over there, but I think the goal they're aiming for is league average. And second, not only could Mueller take a walk even better than Gillaspie (career MiLB walk rate for Billy was 13.6%) but his contact skills were extraordinary. With the exception of his first stint in AAA (a 40 game stint at the end of his AA season), Mueller had more BB than K in every season of his minor league career. And in most cases it was a lot more. In A+ Muller put up a 103/47 bb/k which is more than a little eye-popping. Gillaspie's never had such a season and really has never been terribly close since short-season ball. I'd also say that being league average in the minors isn't necessarily a good thing, since all minor leagues have a very large contingent of players who aren't good enough to be major leaguers. In that sense, you need something like the opposite of "replacement level" to judge minor league numbers. anyway, I think I come down on slightly skeptical position on Conor: I doubt he'll be good enough, but I won't fall off my chair if he is. Strikes me as the kind of player you look at and think: maybe 2nd division regular. The org's insistence to keep him at 3b is a little strange given the needs and the existence of Pablo, but at least it sounds like by keeping him at 3B they're succeeding in making him a better defensive 3B. And they clearly do also like Culby somewhat and want to keep him improving his game at 2B. In the end I suspect we'll see a Theriot/Fontenot platoon when whatever part of Freddy that expires next goes kablooey. Or, gods preserve us, the return of Manny.

Warren
Warren

I'm so tired of hearing how bad our offense is going to be. This team won 86 games last year with not only a bad offense, but a HISTORICALLY bad offense. If you don't think the offense will be better you're insane or stupid. If Cabrera, Pagan and Nate average just a .750 OPS (Something Cabrera has bettered in 2 of last 3 years; Pagan is a career .750 OPS, and Nate beat that last year), it's an improvement over 2011's OF (.684 in LF, .646 in CF, .801 in RF). Add in the added speed and improved overall OF defense and that has to be worth a couple of wins. Posey and Sanchez (Even if Posey is only 80% of what he was) are huge upgrades offensively and even bigger upgrades defensively. A lineup of Posey, C; Belt 1B; Sanchez 2B; Panda 3B; Crawford SS; Melky LF; Pagan CF; Nate RF is not only an upgrade offensively, but an ENORMOUS upgrade defensively. There's not one Burrell, Tejada, O Cabrera or Keppinger in the bunch. Don't tell me this is not worth at least 5 wins which brings us to 91 and puts us in the postseason, where, as we all know, anything can happen. Yes, most likely Crawford won't hit, but which one of our lousy SS's did last year? He'll hit as well as O. Cabrera and Tejada, draw more walks and improve the defense by 1,000%. With our pitching we don't need to be a great hitting team, just decent.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

>> If you don't think the offense will be better you're insane or stupid Melky + Pagan + ???? + Other Stuff = 91 wins! Cool story.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Actually if you input the projected OBP/SLG for the Giants lineup, with Schierholtz and not Belt, then plug that RS/G into the Pythagorean formula with the Giants RA/G that they have produced the past 3 seasons (roughly 3.5-3.6), you should come up with wins in the low 90's. I don't use the projected pitching because sabermetrics fails greatly in how it handles a pitcher like Matt Cain, who can prevent hits, unless the other 99% of pitchers, plus the fact that the team has consistently been around that the past few seasons helps too.

DiggingForFire
DiggingForFire

It's been reported in a few places that Gillaspie has been doing some work at second base since at least last Sept, so moving him there seems to be something they're at least considering. Hard to see it going anywhere though, for me. This year he's a long way behind Sanchez, Fontenot and Theriot for time at second, even discounting Burriss and Pill. Realistically it would take some combination of Crawford tanking so badly with the bat that Theriot and Fontenot need to play short with some frequency, and/or multiple infield injuries. But really, given Burriss's speed, better defense, experience, and 'best shape of his life' buzz, it's fair to assume Gillaspie would be behind him too, if it came to it. So I can't really see him getting much time, barring inuries to more guys than just Sanchez. Longer term, it seems pretty likely that Panik will shut out any chance of Gillaspie making a strong claim on second, unless of course he either sticks at SS or flames out entirely. And of course Sandoval blocks third. So Gillaspie looks more like a trade chip or career minor leaguer or 'AAAA' guy to me...

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

>> It's been reported in a few places that Gillaspie has been doing some work at second base since at least last Sept, so moving him there seems to be something they're at least considering. Thanks for the update. I hadn't heard that yet. IIRC, BA made mention in this year's prospect list that Gillaspie's defense has improved some. I would check, but my BA subscription just recently expired. I'll never understand that Giants' fascination with Burriss. He's a vortex of suck at hitting and his defense, despite good footspeed/range, always seemed poor to me. He'll also turn 27-years-old this season, so not very young anymore, either. You're right that long term Panik is the guy in line for 2B, but he's at least a full season away, maybe slightly more, and the Giants are going to have a vacancy at 2B after this season ends -- maybe sooner.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

I think the fascination with Burriss has to do with his ability to avoid the strikeout, which is a great skill to have. Tie that up with great speed, which Sabean has been trying to get for the team for a long time, and that gives him a lot of opportunities. As noted above about Conor, Burriss don't need to hit for much to be a decent offensive 2B, particularly given that he's excellent there defensively (at times). Sounds like the Giants have been trying and trying and trying to get him to swing for more power, because with his ability to avoid strikeouts, he can be around .300 OBP with a high BA, which couple with a modest 80-100 ISO would yield an OPS similar to the projected line above for Gillaspie, to go with speed and good defense at 2B.

DiggingForFire
DiggingForFire

Yeah it was pretty easy to miss, I think there was only ever one official newsy mention, where they had him taking grounders and getting instruction at second for a few days towards the end of last season, and Bochy had some nice words about Gillaspie being most improved last year and being able to make some noise in 2012, and they were keeping options at second open due to Freddy's injury. Got picked up in a couple of blogs too. I think the fascination with Burriss is a mystery to everyone. I guess as a desperation backup utility/pinch runner on minimum wage he's not the worst guy to have around. I suppose Culberson could be in the mix at second too from next year, though he'll need to have a really good year.

Jesse
Jesse

If Todd Walker can have a 10+ year career as a second baseman, I think Conor Gillaspie can too. The fielding stats you posted are missing Errors, FPCT, Range Factor, etc... where did you pull them from?

M.C. O'Connor
M.C. O'Connor

Yes, we are. I hope Sanchez can play, but I think CMG has earned more than a look.