So, PECOTA …

Published by on February 8, 2012 | 9 Responses

The new PECOTAs are here. (Hat tipping to Twitter friend, @SFBleacherGirl for the notice.) They aren’t pretty for the Giants’ offense. But I think you probably already knew that. The offense could be terrible. The offense might be bad. Oh, god. The offense is looking at me right now. I’m not sure what to do. I’ll just avoid eye contact and slowly walk out of the room.

Yeesh.

PECOTA Giants’ depth chart (which is free to the public), key thoughts.

* Melky Cabrera gets a really poor projection — hitting a slash of .264/.312/.372.
* Aubrey Huff has a little dead cat bounce in him. PECOTA says a slash of .253/.320/.400. That isn’t particularly good for a first baseman that also doubles as an outfield mannequin, but it’s better than Huff’s 2011 performance.
* Brandon Belt gets a .255/.349/.429 projection. That makes him probably the 3rd best hitter on the team behind Sandoval and Posey. The team really needs to find him some playing time. Please and thank you.
* The Good Stuff: Pablo Sandoval’s projection (.301/.348/.484) and Buster Posey’s projection (.282/.350/.439).
* I’m not sure if Brandon Crawford’s batting line (.228/.286/.329) is optimistic or not. I just don’t know any more.
* The outfield looks really weak.
* The pitching looks awesome. Though, the depth chart — at the moment — is absent Madison Bumgarner. I’m sure he’ll show up soon.
* The best part of the projection page “Record: 87-75“. Yes, please. Update: That could possibly be last year’s projection, I’m not sure. For some reason I can’t see the 2012 depth page any more, and I can’t grab the spreadsheet. More thoughts as they come.

Share your PECOTA thoughts in the comments. I’ll be sobbing quietly in the corner.

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glenadyll
glenadyll

haha--I just ran into this myself--fun with revisionist history

rrekowjr
rrekowjr

Pablo will have a .950+ OPS this year.

Jimmy
Jimmy

My mashed potatoes are telling me that Pagan and Cabrera will have a Huff 2010-style career year as a result of the mystical feel-good team atmosphere in the Giants' clubhouse. Bochy's respect for the players, manifested in his unwillingness to bench guys no matter how long their slump lasts, can't be reflected in stats. However, in all seriousness, a manager can't treat his players like expendable chess pieces and expect them to produce their maximum output. Sabremetrics tends to forget that players are human beings. Baseball is no different from any other profession in this regard.

Curtis
Curtis

I gotta say, those look like really good projections. But yes, the Crawford one may be a bit optimistic. Any chance it can project a new GM and coach for us in 2013 - ones that use logic and data analysis maybe?

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Sabean and Bochy use a lot of logic and data analysis. Bochy is the only manager to consistently beat the odds in 1-run games, his record is statistically significantly over .500 even though the saber-rule is that .500 is the mean every manager regresses to, my research showed that. He adds roughly half a win each season through his managing in 1-run games. Sabean meanwhile knew which players to keep. While fans have alternatively traded away Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, gave up on Sandoval, thought that Smoak was better than Posey, Sabean stuck to his guns and kept all these players. Without any of those players, there is no 2010 World Championship. I hope they get another two year extension when the time comes, they have earned it.

Chris
Chris

He also thought Orlando Cabrera was good.

Nick
Nick

Sabean also traded Francisco Liriano, Joe Nathan and Zack Wheeler for 2 month rentals. The only way we win a championship with Sabean at the helm is to catch lightning in a bottle. I like Bochy but I wouldn't mind replacing Sabean with a GM who has won in the past.

@k9_2458
@k9_2458

OUCH!!!!! Matt Cain and MadBum have a BWARP of 0.3 in 75 PA's while Aubrey Huff comes in at 0.2 in 579 PA's!