Did the Giants overreact to the reliever market?

Published by on January 28, 2012 | 21 Responses

It’s been a common, if not overused, refrain this offseason: the Giants overpaid for relief pitching. Early on, before the market really started to develop, the Giants picked up Jeremy Affeldt’s $5M option for 2012 without hesitation, and then turned around and signed a LOOGY, Javier Lopez, to a two-year, $8.5M deal. Both deals were, at the time, somewhat panned — or at least questioned.

Should the Giants be spending upwards of $9M per season between two relievers? Is it ever a good idea to pay $4M for a LOOGY? Should the team have saved its money and went in another direction?

In my opinion, those are all legitimate questions. I’m not going to rehash them, or my feelings on this specific topic — they’ve been covered here quite well, and in other spaces — but rather I would like to look at the reliever market and how it’s played out thus far. What’s been the going rate for relief pitching and did the Giants act too quickly when they brought back Affeldt and Lopez.

What I decided to do was take a grouping of relievers that have signed contracts this offseason, created a 5/4/3 weighted average WAR from the past three seasons, add in a slight aging adjustment to create a “projected” 2012 WAR, and then divide that total by the average annual value of their new deal to see how much per WAR each reliever is being paid.

The table:

Player 2009 2010 2011 2012 AAV WAR$
Brad Lidge -0.8 0.3 0.3 -0.08 1 -13.33
Darren Oliver 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.35 4.5 3.33
Takashi Saito 0.4 1.2 0.2 0.48 1.75 3.62
Jonathan Broxton 2.8 1.1 -0.3 0.84 4 4.75
Joe Nathan 2.1 2.9 0 1.39 7.375 5.30
Ryan Madsen 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.37 8.25 6.04
Jonathan Papelbon 2 1.2 3 2.05 12.5 6.10
Heath Bell 2 2.4 0.5 1.41 9 6.39
Octavio Dotel 0.8 0.1 0.9 0.51 3.5 6.89
Frank Francisco 1.1 1 0.5 0.72 6 8.37
Francisco Cordero 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.46 4.5 9.82
Javier Lopez -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.37 4.25 11.59
Jon Rauch 0.7 1.1 -0.6 0.19 3.5 18.26
Jeremy Affeldt 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.23 5 22.22
Matt Capps -0.4 1.2 -0.4 0.03 4.75 142.50

Technically, Jeremy Affeldt wasn’t a free agent (the Giants chose to pick up his option), but I wanted to add him to our group for comparison’s sake.

Some reactions from the table…

  • Brad Lidge is set to earn a piddly $1M with the Nationals on his new deal and despite his somewhat wacky WAR$ figure, I like the deal for the Nationals. Lidge is far from a sure thing, but he does possess upside — he never stopped striking out batters last year (10.7 strikeouts per nine); however, his walk rate (6.1 per nine) was high. He is incredibly cheap and if he can reign in his command a little, the Nats could do well. It’s a nice deal without any risk, really.
  • Has Darren Oliver been the most underrated reliever in recent memory? It seems that year after year he posts solid to very good seasons, and yet the Blue Jays are paying him approximately $3.3M per win, the cheapest of any of our relievers. That’s a very nice bargain for the Jays. It’s possible that Oliver’s age (41 in 2012) had something to do with it, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down and at a one-year deal the risk is minimal. Another solid deal.
  • Among this group, once you remove the Lidge and Capps outliers, teams are paying approximately $7M per win on FA relievers.
  • I also like Takashi Saito and Jonathan Broxton’s deals. Saito has been a pretty good pitcher when healthy. Much like Lidge, his commitment is extremely minimal at $1.75M in salary for 2012. He projects as approximately a half-win pitcher, so he looks fairly paid. Broxton is something else entirely. He battled elbow injuries last year while only pitching 12.2 innings. His velocity and strikeouts have been down-trending, but it’s also hard to overlook from 2006-2009 he was one of the most dominant relievers in the National League. He projects at .84 wins on the strength of his previous work.
  • I’m not a fan of Jonathan Papelbon’s deal with the Phillies — four years, $50 million — but he looks better than what I would have imagined. He posted a three win season last year with the Red Sox which is nearly unheard of from a reliever.
  • Matt Capps is going to earn $4.75M to pitch for the Twins this year. It’s an overpay, the worst on our list, because Capps looks more like a replacement level pitcher than one that is above replacement level. His recent track record is mixed, too.

Now, to delve into the Giants’ portion of the list: Affeldt and Lopez. My main problem with Affeldt is that while he is a good pitcher, he only projects at .23 wins in 2012. That’s a solid bullpen guy, but it’s more back-end than late inning dominance. The Giants are going to pay him close to $22M per win added. That’s hugely out of whack with the average $7M per win that teams have paid out for this group. I think if the Giants don’t pick up Affeldt’s option, he signs for something like $2-3M on the market.

Paying Lopez $4.25M per year, in my opinion, is almost unforgivable. I love what Lopez has done for the Giants, but you just can’t pay your LOOGY $4M per year. The Giants will pay Lopez right around $11.5M per win — again, out of line with what we’ve seen in this group.

In the end, I think we can say that the Giants are paying a ‘premium’ for Affeldt and Lopez. Though, as I’ve previously written in other posts, it’s not overly surprising; Brian Sabean obviously likes stability in his bullpen. In Affeldt and Lopez the Giants surely have a sense of what they’ll be getting. However, that doesn’t change the fact that the team paid for a Lexus and instead got a Ford Fiesta. The Giants acted quickly to pick up Affeldt’s option and sign Lopez’s deal, but one has to wonder what would have happened if they waited a little longer for the market to develop.

Article written by

21 comments
  Livefyre
Newest | Oldest
Bryan
Bryan

Aff and Lopez are good, are they great no.... Could the Giants have used this "savings" to improve their offense? I doubt it. Big Sticks cost money and I'm not talking 3mill. extra so this saving plan proposed is meaningless. Rowand , Huff and Cody Ross.... Now that is some serious cheddar that could have been better spent on sticks.

Jeffrey
Jeffrey

I would argue Lopez is not a LOOGY, but a pitcher that can regularly go 5-6 batters if necessary. Yes, he's most dangerous facing lefties, but in my estimation he was the most important signing for that bullpen. If he was a one-hitter guy, I'd agree with your assessment that the Giants way overpaid. But having watched him the last year plus, I feel he's a must have for that 'pen.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Right-handed batters own a career slash-line of .293/.379/.423 against Lopez. That isn't a guy that can pitch to RHBs. He's not someone that you can turn loose against "5-6 batters".

Jeffrey
Jeffrey

I've seen the numbers, but as a Giant, he's been very good in most of his opportunities against all comers. I'm not super-knowledgeable when it comes to stats, but what I do know is what I've seen with my own eyes since he came to the Giants. He's rarely had a bad outing, and time-and-again has faced multiple hitters from both sides of the plate effectively. If the argument is that he may eventually "level out" to his career average versus right-handed hitting, then perhaps it's too much money. But if he stays the course in terms of his performance level with the Giants, I'm extremely happy to have him in the 'pen when they need him.

G.D.
G.D.

SF Giants 2011 bullpen was in the top 3 for the MLB. I guess that speaks for itself. Makes sense to keep the usual "suspects" for another year or two.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Again, I never said the bullpen wasn't good, or it wasn't a strength of the team. But the Giants are overpaying for what they are getting. Reliever seasons from year-to-year can be pretty volatile.

oira79
oira79

Much ado over little. The Giants are paying Affeldt and Lopez $9.25 million. You're not arguing that you don't want them -- only that you want to pay them less. How much less? Would you be happy if they made a combined $6 million? The difference is just not that much money in modern baseball. You can't sign Jose Reyes with $3.25 million.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Well, that's a nice strawman, since I never said anything about what the team could have done with the money saved. But, if you're like me, and you understand that money is finite resource, then it's not a good thing that the Giants appear to be paying their relievers 2-3x the going market rate. That's not arguable, is it?

Lyle
Lyle

Well, Chris, I don't know I would "argue" - but would like mention 2 things: 1. We don't know that the Giants know of, or trust in, any perceived "going rate." And as campanari pointed out above, the team has no guarantee that they can sign any of these other relievers, even if offering the same $. And as mentioned, the Giants seem comfortable with these guys. 2. You saying the "Giants appear to be paying their relievers 2-3x the going market rate." But it's not all their relievers, just the harder-to-find-and-trust lefty relievers. And, more important, as oira79 says, paying these two guys maybe 3-6 million more -in the overall budget - just isn't that big a deal. "2-3x" is a more dramatic way to say it, but "a few million extra" is just as accurate. Now, IF they could have saved approx. $5-6m by signing two other lefty relievers that they had equal confidence in, and then IF they could have turned around and used that money to acquire a corner OF whose slugging ability would have been a clear upgrade for this offense, that would be a different conversation. But neither of those events were certain. I want a slugging OF as much as anyone, but I think we're going to have to draft that person rather than sign a FA.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Always good to see (read?) you posting here, Lyle. "But it's not all their relievers, just the harder-to-find-and-trust lefty relievers." I'll stand by my argument that LOOGYs just aren't that hard to rustle up. George Sherill signed for $1M to play for the Mariners and he's been tougher than Lopez over his career on lefty batters. There really isn't any compelling arguments to make for the Lopez deal. Yes, he's been a good Giant. And yes I like him as a pitcher. But his deal seems unwise and out of place for what teams are paying for LOOGYs. I think Affeldt is a little overrated at this point. He's a decent reliever, not a great one. Could the Giants have saved money by signing George Sherill and letting Affeldt walk? Sure. Would they have been worse for wear in the bullpen? Probably not. Could they have applied that money and gotten more offense? Maybe. I don't know. I think we could play 'what-ifs' all day, but for a team that's (claiming) strapped for cash, the Giants aren't doing themselves any favors. The Affeldt-Lopez deals aren't back-breakers, they just aren't good. And the team should strive to spend it's money more wisely.

Tommy
Tommy

Good point. The likelihood that they spent any saved money on another contract is about 0. We still made signings after this with basically the best (shudder) crap that was available. I'd rather have it go to those guys than to investors.

Bradley Emden
Bradley Emden

Perhaps if there is a limited payroll as the giants have claimed and have proceeded as this is definitely fact, then maybe the offense is weaker than it should be because too much was spent on middle relief. Of course Matt and Timmy do not want their games blown by crappy relief pitchers, but they also would have a better chance of winning if some of that money was spent on offense. Just ask the pitchers if they would like to be supported by more offense. Would you rather have Runzler and Hembree pitch in middle relief, with another offensive threat, or would you rather have Affeldt and Lopez, and lack the offense threat. What if the offense could score just 0.7 more runs per game, Would it have been worth a Rollins for 1.5 million more than Affeldt and Lopez, minus the cost of Runzler and Hensley. Or Beltran for 3.5 million more minus the cost of Runzler and Hensley I see Affeldt as erratic. You just do not know what you are going to get each time out, and he is very streaky. Problem with Streaky is Bochy likes to put veterans back in again and again after they make a mistake. However, if a young player makes a mistake, he is relegated to Cleon Hell.

campanari
campanari

The Giants didn't have Rollins or Beltran, but rather the right to bid for their services. We don't know what amount of money would have beaten out other bidders for either man, or how long a contract the Giants would have been committing themselves to. This renders moot the numbers you offer (which in any case don't take into account the length of the contract), except as an absolute floor to the amount it would have cost the Giants. Since Hembree has never pitched above AA ball, he is a bad candidate for being relied upon in middle relief. But more generally, you seem to think that the Giants have never weighed going for cheaper pitching, which implies a degree of fumbling idiocy on their part that seems to me unwarranted and silly to presume. I don't imagine that they want to be extravagant. Do you? I do imagine that after their experience with contracts for longer than one year, they are reluctant to hand those out for players in their thirties, at the cost (in the case of Beltran) of not being able to play some other outfielder who can actually play defense, and (in the case of Rollins) of putting the development of their own youngsters--those players whose treatment you seem to deplore in your last sentence (or is that just a piqued throwaway?)--on lengthy hold.

campanari
campanari

Paul Heally says "there is no doubt this situation could have been better managed!" But there is doubt that it could have been. The Giants have an excellent record recently as to judging pitching, and as to the quality of the guys they have, I think they deserve the initial assumption that they know what they're doing. One ought to be able to adduce a plausible rationale for what they did. First WAR, as DrB has argued, may understate the value of relief pitchers. If so, the extent of any overpayment isn't clear. Second, the Giants had Lopez and Affeldt, but none of the other pitchers listed here; one doesn't know what the others would cost the Giants in competition with other teams, or whether the team would have to entrust its fate to Runzler, say. We need a strong bullpen because we don't score lots of runs, and starters need protection of any leads they leave the game with. And this year, with the Giants having (I believe) more players in arbitration than anyone else, their overpaying--if they did--cuts down on financial uncertainty.

foothillsryan
foothillsryan

Affeldt's big hook deserves mention. Pretty durable for the most part also. He's got a lot of valuable components to his game that when they come together it's gravy.

foothillsryan
foothillsryan

T'here's something to be said for paying for the guys you want, are familiar with, and have defined roles for. Affeldt is a versatile bullpen guy. He can come into an NLCS game in the 3rd inning and hold the line or close out a game to give the closer a breather. That whole double play mania was fun to watch in 2009. Is 5 million too steep? Maybe. But the market was probably going to give him at least Oliver money. Lopez is definitely a weapon on lefties. Anybody that can make Joey Votto look foolish deserves some cash. That much for two years? Probably not, but when there's a lefty in the batter's box with the game on the line in the 6,7, or 8 frames, this is the guy (outside of Johnny Venters of course).

Paul Heally
Paul Heally

I keep hearing over and over "Tim Lincecum loves his teammates". Every once in a while I let the word "intangible" slip into my baseball mind! At which point I quickly find the nearest wall and slam my head until it's gone--or I bleed! I think there is no doubt this situation could have been better managed!

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Affeldt isn't a bad reliever, but he's also a little overrated. His career FIP/xFIP against LHBs (4.14/3.96) is OK, but not "lefty killer" status. His career numbers against RHBs are even less impressive. Darren Oliver is a better pitcher in every way, except maybe age. Again, I'll reiterate, Affelt isn't a bad reliever, he's just overpaid and the Giants look like they jumped the gun when they exercised his option. Lopez is tough on LHBs, you'll get no argument here. But, that's role that you just can't spend big money on. Hideki Okajima (signed a minor league deal) or George Sherrill ($1.1M) will give you the same production at a fraction of the cost. Just seems like poor money management all around.

rog61
rog61

Especially when hey were going to spend the rest ofthe offseason crying poor. Honestly I've just never seen what their is to like so much about Affeldt. He walks way too many batters and (with the sinle exception of the year before he Giants signed him) doesn't strike out many. Nor, with the exception of 2009, is he a dramatic gb guy either. He's a pitcher whos going to walk tons of batters and get balls put in play constantly. That's not anybody I want pitching in a tight game (despite game 6 in Philly). It's surely not anybody I want closing (though Wilson looked quite the same last year) and its absolutely not anybody I want to pay $5mil too, OT, as long and as good a career as he's had,I found it really painful that Oliver had a chance to be standing on the mound when he finally won a championship and he couldn't get the job done, allowing back to back lefties to reach base and set up the Cards second come back. It's a hard and brutal game.

rog61
rog61

I suppose, but why would I take out the high walk rates? Walk rates are one of the most important elements in a pitcher's control. And I really don't think a k9 of 7.9 is at all impressive for a short reliever who can air it out (and that's just a three year look, his career rates are lower). I stand by my former statement: what's not to like is that he's a guy who puts a lot of people on base for free, and then puts the ball in play a ton. That's not a great combination for a late inning reliever. If it's coming from a guy who's virtually free, like Dan Runzler, I can grit my teeth and hope for the good days. But it's coming from a guy we've paid a lot of money to over 4 years. And I think we could find other places to spend our money.

foothillsryan
foothillsryan

Nice call on Oliver. The numbers on Affeldt actually look pretty good. If you take out the high walk rate, he's great. Lots of ground balls - 65-55-62% rates over the last three. Around 8K/9. xFIP had him at 3.39 last year. What's not to like about a lefty throwing 92-95 with sink? Not the most abundant quantity. I drop Venters again as a benchmark, who's closer to one hundred.