Should we assume that the Giants will be able to retain Matt Cain?

Published by on December 24, 2011 | 23 Responses

A common statement, from both fans and the front office, this offseason has been, “One of the reasons we haven’t spent larger on the free agent market is that we need to lock up our starting pitching (Cain and Lincecum). And spending dollars today, might prohibit that goal tomorrow.”

Matt Cain is earning $15M this season, his last year under contract with the Giants. Will the Giants be able to sign Cain to an extension before the 2012 season is over? I don’t know. But I think fans, and maybe the Giants (though, I’m not bold enough to say that I know what their internal discussions are), are preemptively assuming that Matt Cain will forgo the market and, instead, sign an extension with the team.

Here is my question: Why would Cain not test the market?

You could probably cite a bunch of personal reasons (real or imaginary) that might sway Cain to remain with the Giants: he enjoys the city of San Francisco, he likes the team, he’s raising a family in the area, the Giants are his first team, etc. And I have no idea if those are legitimate reasons that might keep Cain in San Francisco — but here’s the other point, neither do you. Even if we assume a best case scenario of Matt Cain loves everything about San Francisco, the team, the fans, there’s a large siren that’s beeping and flashing in the back of my mind.

This recent quote from Lance Berkman is, in my opinion, a crushingly candid, and honest, answer to the question of doing business in major league baseball.

“It’s always about money,” Berkman said. “No matter what people say, it’s always about the money.”

Money. For professional athletes that only have a limited shot at earning an income it’s kind of important.

Money. Cain is poised to make a ton of it. Consider the following facts about Matt Cain:

  • He’s going to enter the market at 28-years-old — relatively young for a starting pitcher with eight seasons (this includes the upcoming 2012) under his belt.
  • The accolades: two-time All-Star, 0.00 ERA in 21.1 innings of postseason baseball
  • More stats: career ERA+ (125), five years of 200 IP or more (2007-11), career fWAR (24.2)

Consider the following mystery pitcher and his statistics before he entered the market:

Mystery pitcher: Age: 28, IP: 1,659.1, ERA+: 120, BB/9: 2.8, K/9: 7.6
Matt Cain: Age: 28, IP: 1,317.1, ERA+: 125, BB/9: 3.2, K/9: 7.4

Our mystery pitcher was a three-time All-Star by the time he made free agency. He was a Cy Young Award winner in 2007, but otherwise he’s shockingly similar to Matt Cain in innings pitched, Adjusted ERA (ERA+), walks-per-nine, and strikeouts-per-nine. If you haven’t figured it out, our mystery pitcher is none other than CC Sabathia. In 2008, Sabathia signed a seven year, $161 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees. If I’m Matt Cain’s agent, that’s the very first comparison I’m making when it comes to Matt Cain and a contract.

All things considered, I think you have to assume that Matt Cain will test the market. He’s too young and too talented not to. The Giants current strategy of locking up their pitching is a noble goal, but I think they’ll have stiff competition, and unless the team knocks Matt Cain over with an offer, it seems borderline crazy to think he won’t test the market. There is just way too many dollars out there for him not to.

Depressing? Maybe. But talent like Matt Cain only comes around every so often on the market and trust me, Matt Cain and his agent both know this. To say otherwise, while bringing in non-monetary arguments to the discussion, seems like the definition of unrealistic.

Poll time!

Will Matt Cain sign an extension with the Giants before he becomes a free agent?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

Article written by

23 comments
  Livefyre
Newest | Oldest
Celeste
Celeste

Just because Lance Berkman thinks it is all about the money doesn't mean that Matt Cain thinks the same way. A better argument to be made for Matt testing free agent waters (god forbid) is that he has a 3.35 career ERA and a sub .500 career record 69-73. If either he or Tim had had ANY run support last year either could have been a 20-game winner. I know the entire rotation last season were good little soldiers and never threw the offense under the bus all year talking about how individual stats were not important, but I can't help but think that at least lurking in the back of their minds it niggled at them a little. All pitchers want success and are dependent on the offense to provide the miniscule runs needed (at least for our rotation) to rack up decent numbers. This more than money might drive Matty into free agency.

Ed C.
Ed C.

As said, money will be the major factor...but both Cain and Lincecum are well aware of the opportunity to have 20-win seasons with a tclub that consistently fields run-producing teams. And, most high scoring teams have the money to pay All Star pitchers with the stats our two guys have been racking up---losing games because poor support, or even worse, no support (that's a stat, too). These two guys want recognition for their talents and they can find both run support and big dollars with another team.

magowanite
magowanite

Matt Cain wouldn't be a huge loss.

AAB
AAB

Cain will test the market because he knows the Giants are not be willing to pay him; unfortunately, and for the same reason, the Giants will not be able to keep Lincecum. If the Giants are smart, they will trade Cain before the season starts. The Giants should trade Cain for offense. There will always teams willing to trade their best offense for someone else's best pitching. If they can successfully and smartly trade Cain for someone's best offense... maybe it will convince Lincecum to stay with the Giants. Its very obvious that Cain and Lincecum are both tired ...and are both extremely frustrated with the lack of run support. They both know they would be perennial 20 Winners with any sort of run support. Currently, the Giants are simply not willing to pay the BIG MONEY to keep their best players. Historically, the Giants have been winners whenever they were willing to pay; unfortunately, during those winning times, they have lost BIG MONEY. If they could sign a local cable TV broadcast deal like the Yankees... the BIG MONEY could be there. But that is another subject.

Tom McGEE
Tom McGEE

Why should Cain sign with the Giants? Sabean has made this organization the worst in bothLeagues.Again Sabean goes after Beltran for three months---and of course Beltran tests the FREE AGENT market. Sabean gave away the organizations top pitching prospect to get the rights for Beltran in that trade deal. Sabean has done the"give away " before --for "rented free agents" for two months they always leave San Francisco. The Giants cannot even make any trades for any Hitters. The Giants are the worst offensive teamin all of baseball. THIS YEAR LAST PLACE IN THE WEST --YOU WATCH. AND STILL THE ORGANIZATION KEEPS SABEAN AND BOCHEY--BOTH THE TWO WORST GM'S AND MANAGER IN MLB.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

You seem to have forgotten that we lost Posey for over two-thirds of the season. The dropdown from Posey to Whiteside/Stewart was roughly 6-7 wins, based on runs created projections. That would have put us in the playoffs last season and I would not have had to hear all this wailing about their offense. Also, the Giants pitching has led the team to a top 3 spot in runs allowed for three seasons now, the only team to do that. Sabean put together the heart of that rotation, Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, plus put together the bullpen that supports them and helps the starters win the games they were already leading in, plus hold off the other team while our team catches up and take the lead. Sabean and Bochy are the best GM and Manager in the MLB. The Giants are poised to have their entire lineup be made up with homegrown players (mostly) in a year or two. Posey and Sandoval look to be perennial All-Stars, and hopefully Belt and Brown too eventually. Meanwhile, the Giants have the best core rotation in Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, plus best closer/setup tandem in Wilson and Romo. All homegrown. All Sabean. Bochy, meanwhile, is the only manager during his career to consistently win enough 1-run games to be among the leaders in win differential in roughly half his seasons as manager. No other manager is that close to him. He and maybe a handful of others seem to have the skill to win 1-run games consistently, and he is the best of them. He is a great manager. I am very glad that the two of them got extensions this off-season. Our team is in good hands.

Tom McGee
Tom McGee

YOU WON'T PUT COMMENT IN PRINT --YOU ARE PROTECTING THIS ORGANIZATION. THEY ARE DISGUSTING

Ryan
Ryan

The Giants lock up Cain before opening day. The question is for how long and how much. Somewhere between 5/90 and 6/120. Sometimes its about loyalty and money. By signing an extension now, Cain gets guaranteed money and forgoes the inherent risk of pitching for a contract in 2012. By signing with the Giants he signs with the team, staff and coaches that brought him to this point. I'm not saying Matt Cain will be a Giant lifer, but he'll be around. It's Lincecum that I have my doubts about.

Debbie Scott
Debbie Scott

I would put all my eggs under Matty.He will pitch well for another 8 to 10 years. We have seen the best of Lincecum already. He's losing velocity and he dosen't seem as focused. He's won the Cy twice and the series. How motavated can he be! I mean I know he is the freak but he is human after all.

Say Hey Kid 54
Say Hey Kid 54

I agree totally...Cain is our franchise pitcher...a Nolan Ryan type...more durable

G-Dub
G-Dub

It's not ALWAYS about the money. Jered Weaver re-upped with the Angels and could have made more money by becoming a free agent.

AndyG
AndyG

Timmy has stated he wants one/two year deal or eight year deal and nothing in between. That means he's after money--either to be able to test the market in a year or two when his value is still high, or to lock up eight years of money with giants. In my mind, the one or two year might even be a courtesy (as opposed to eight years or bust) because he might be trying to tell management that they still have a chance to show that they're committed to winning. But either way, Timmy's motivation appears to be the big bucks. Matt Cain is a little harder to interpret, and as this article points out, no one really knows. And yes, the safest bet is to assume that money will be the motivating factor. As it is, I think Sabean has handled this about as poorly as possible and if loyalty was a big factor, then things would be a little further along than they are. I hope we keep both. I think we'll keep one. But if they both go, so should Sabean.

NYGiantsFan
NYGiantsFan

New York Baseball Giants Nostalgia Society here.We have different opinions back here.In my opinion,even though we improved,should have signed Beltran and Reyes.They both went reasonably.That would have shown Timmy and Matt the Giants mean business.We would't have needed Pagan so it would have been...Reyes SS,Freddie 2B,Beltran RF,Pablo 3B,Buster C,Melky CF,Nate LF and Pill,Belt!or Huffy at First with Belt,Huff and Pill as backups to outfield and 2B and Fontenot as utility man.We win the WS,Tim and Matt resign, The Giants can raise prices to cover and it's a win for all! I like to Daydream!!

LAPete
LAPete

So, if the Giants can't get the extension done and they are barely in contention, do you pull the trigger and trade him for a bushel of prospects? Perhaps that deal that was rumored with the Yanks? You can still try to resign him during free agency and restock the farm which has lost it's depth. I think you make the move.

Nivra
Nivra

I totally would.

Steve
Steve

Cain and Lincecum stated earlier during the year, win or trade me. Cain is gone and Lincecum may as well be gone as well. You are NOT going to be happy with loosing records. Loyalty would have to be greater then money and at this point of the game, loyalty means squat, a deal would have been made already.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

My point in pointing out all the possible reasons why Cain might stay is that most people have just been making the assumption that Cain will bolt just because of the money. As you astutely point out none of us know exactly what he might do. However, another thing I point out is that Cain has never been about the money. He accepted the same deal that Lowry got, even though I thought he could have gotten more. He signed his small extension that is his current contract when again he probably could have gotten more by going free agent. As a counter to your statement above, there are many young players who sign long-term contracts with their current team, so it is not always about getting top dollar, as long as the player feels he is getting something fair. in addition, if the contract is long enough, the player would be turning down a $100M-ish contract to go free agent. Most do not have the balls to risk losing $100M just so they can test the free agent market in one year.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Shankbone turned me on to this old article for nostalgia, but it includes some info pertinent to this discussion: http://sanfrancisco.giants.mlb.com/news/article.j... "Though he might not have been the highest-rated player available when the Giants took him, he was their highest-rated pitcher and was considered relatively easy to sign. "It's kind of a no-brainer right now ... if everything works out right," said Cain of turning pro and passing on his scholarship. Now it falls in the hands of Giants brass and Athletic Resources Management, the firm that will represent Cain. "Their concern was, 'Did he have unreasonable demands,'" said Len Hardison, who along with Kyle Rote Jr. will negotiate on behalf of Cain. "That was the way [assistant GM] Ned [Colletti] put it, and I said we weren't going to try to break any records. One of the reasons Matt selected us was that we weren't trying to hold teams hostage." " Cain got basically the same bonus $1.375M (slightly above) and his bonus appeared low compared to what others around him got. But it appears that it was around slot. And they are still his agents, according to baseball-reference.com. The evidence is that Cain just wants what is fair, he's not looking to break the bank, unless you are saying that his years in baseball either corrupted him or jaded him enough to be all about the money. But as we've all noted, we don't know exactly what he is thinking. But as I've tried to show, his prior behavior does suggest that he will not be the money hungry player that a lot of Giants fans are painting him out to be. And that if the Giants are fair in their negotiations and in the ballpark, Cain can be signed to an extension. Lincecum, however, is a different matter. The recent leak that his side asked for 8 years suggest that all the comments made before about Lincecum not wanting the pressure of a long-term contract was just a negotiating ploy. That fits more with his history of holding out for the money he thinks he deserves (Indian's draft, Giants draft, Giants arb). Still, the Giants have to know the money involved with retaining Lincecum (in total that is) and when the numbers get that large, especially when it's the pitcher's first mega-deal, as I noted, will he have the balls to turn down over $100M (Giants had offered 4 years so I would guess that 5-6 years is where the deal will land and have to think it's over $20M per and will be close to CC's per, though not equal).

@cjbarresi75
@cjbarresi75

I don't think he gets CC money unless he goes to a CC team like NY, LAA etc. Weaver took less to stay, so they say, so I think a similar deal would be in order...4 years at 16-18 per. Timmy is also a huge concern. He only wants a one year deal. He definitely wants a) to test the market or, b) make sure the Giants are committed to winning on a year to year basis. For a pitcher that throws hard, its a huge risk not to lock in big money for as many years as possible, but he's doing it.

@theJTshaw
@theJTshaw

Chris, if you were the giants and using either the CC or CJ contracts as references what would you offer to Cain? He definitely deserves CC money but will the Wilson and Weaver contract from last year have any impact on what they potentially offer. I tend to agree with you on why Cain wouldn't test the market but my question is, if the Giants master plan is to lock up Timmy Jim and Cain how can they not be pondering the same question we all have of "Why would these guys sign long term if we are not committed to bringing in bigger bats?"

@cjbarresi75
@cjbarresi75

The "too depressing" votes count as "no" votes. It's sad but true. In 07 and 08 he had terrible (almost "freakish") run support and I thought for sure he would bolt asap. Now that the offense is among the leagues worst, why would he stay? His career has been remarkable. He's durable, physically and mentally. He'll do well on the open market. We'll miss him and should give him as many standing ovations as possible this year. The Giants will find it hard this year to compete for a championship and you can't underestimate a players desire to win. Can you write or point me to a piece on how the hell Sabean still has a job? If Beltran was a gamble, he lost....went all-in and lost. But then he got extended....so he didn't really lose jack! I just don't get that! And 2010 can't carry him, he fluked that at best and he knows it.