Instant reaction: Giants trade Torres, Ramirez to Mets for Angel Pagan

Published by on December 6, 2011 | 28 Responses

At first glance, the similarities between Andres Torres and Angel Pagan are striking; both are switch-hitters; both have primarily played center field in their careers; and both were non-tender candidates coming off down years.

Pagan really seems like a near identical version of Torres without the amazing defense.

In center field, over his career, Pagan rates at -2.7 runs by Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). The plus/minus metric (DRS, defensive runs saved) has Pagan at +16 career runs in CF, so there is some differing opinions among the metrics. I think we can split the difference and call Pagan and average-ish defender in CF. He rated very well in 2010 by UZR (+9 runs above average), but was terrible in 2011 by UZR (-14.3 runs). DRS was less harsh on Pagan in 2011 (-1 run). Torres, by comparison, has been worth nearly one full win (by UZR standards) per season on defense. It seems pretty clear that he’s the better defender. So, in that regard, losing Torres hurts the outfield.

Offensively speaking, Pagan carries a career batting line of .279/.331/.418. Depending on if you use OPS+ or wRC+ he’s been a better than league average hitter by one to four percentage points. He’s hit right-handed pitching (106 wRC+) better than left-handed pitching (85 wRC+) in his career.

And, much like Torres, Pagan profiles as a pretty good baserunner. By FanGraphs’ baserunning metric, he’s at 6.8 runs above average over his career; Andres Torres is at 10 runs above average over his career by the same metric.

In essence, the Giants traded Andres Torres for a younger clone version with slightly worse defense. Though, that’s not to say it’s necessarily a bad trade. For one, this should move Melky Cabrera out of CF, which for Giants’ pitchers and their ERAs is a good, nay, fantastic thing. Losing Ramirez impacts the bullpen (third best projected reliever by ZiPS), but the Giants have been pretty decent at digging up relief arms over the past couple of years.

I think, all things considered, the Giants would have been better just tendering (and keeping) Torres and Ramirez, but it was clear that the team wasn’t going to go in that direction, at least with Torres. This is probably the best option to not having Torres on the team. Damning with faint praise, maybe, but Pagan has been a pretty good player at times in his career and I really, really like the idea of moving (and I’m assuming, here) Cabrera out of CF.

So hooray for Melky Cabrera, Not-CF’er.

Article written by

28 comments
  Livefyre
Newest | Oldest
marc
marc

I agree that the Torres trade is a risk-averse move. He's more likely to crater, and then, that would be a real problem. I expect that Huff is on a very short leash this year. If Belt hits, he will play. It's not a bad thing to have options.

rog61
rog61

The way the Torres story played out makes me worry about the team's attitude toward Belt, though, because it seems pretty clear that it was the strikeouts that soured them on Andres and it seems like the strikeouts have affected their attitude toward Belt. It seems likely to me that Belt is always going to be a fairly high K guy, and they're going to need to find a way to live with that and focus on the things that he does well.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

The Giants definitely still seem a team that uses batting average (and contact ability) as the measuring stick to evaluate offense. Also, I have to say, that I really haven't cared for the narrative that Baggs is trying to create on Torres right now. Seems a bit silly to me.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Something that has been left unsaid here is whether you believe that Torres will revert back to his 2010 form. He actually was his normal self in April/May, but then fell off the cliff offensively. It was noted during the season that his ADHD medicine suddenly wasn't working for him anymore and I have not heard any news on whether that has been fixed or not. Also, he says that he thinks his problem was just poor batting mechanics that he is working to fix right now (key words, working to fix right now) with Juan Gonzalez, who, if I recall, needed drug help to be the good hitter he was. So I think the key to anyone's reaction to this trade is whether they believe that the 2009-10 Torres returns, plus added to that, whether they believe that the 2009-10 Pagan returns as well. We have an explanation on Pagan's poor 2011: he had an oblique injury plaguing him in the early season, plus a very poor BABIP, much lower than his career numbers or recent years would indicate. He's healthy now and working on his conditioning. We have not heard yet on Torres ADHD medication plus he is working on fixing his batting flaw right now, meaning he has not fixed it yet. So I think the odds of getting a fully productive CF is much greater with Pagan than it is with Torres. All things being right, Torres probably is the better player, but what are the odds of that? I like our chances with Pagan, whereas with Torres, I was hopeful the Giants could non-tender him and sign him to a lesser contract.

Ryan
Ryan

Glad to see some of y'all aren't declaring Nate as the outright winner of right field. As it stands now, Belt has two places to crack the lineup. If he can't outhit Schierholtz or Huff, then perhaps AAA is the spot for him. Either by default or Huff and Schierholtz are miraculously run producing machines. Beltran is cooked now. Unless they've got a trade lined up for Huff, possibly Schierholtz. Too much fuss though. Just punch up the payroll to the mid 130's and bring in Rollins or Furcal and this team is ready to play ball.

TSF
TSF

I get the feeling this deal might land Melky the starting right fielder job. Pagan creates an incredible glut at LF/1B, so unless the Giants trade Huff or something, I can't imagine a platoon of those three players in LF because Posey will see increased time at 1B. I can't help but be optimistic that we might still see Beltran again. 2011 Beltran, 2010 Pagan, and 2011 Melky in the outfield would be a welcome sight even with the charybdis at SS. If Keppinger and Affeldt get traded for (gasp) a cheap utility infielder, perhaps the salary relief will be enough to buy back Beltran?

Andy G
Andy G

Agree and Disagree. Disagree that we will see Beltran back. Sabean's thinking seems to be that multiple bargain potential-upside OF's is equal to one big signing like Beltran. Not that we could expect 140-150 games a year from him anyway. Agree that Keppinger is getting shipped and would give us a couple mil. I doubt he would be paired with Affeldt because of the big price tag and apparent unwillingness to trade him. Keppinger will probably get us some util guy, the only question is which since they all seem to be taken (and with two year contracts no less). One shortstop veteran is looking for a place to play. His name is Edgar Renteria, and he would be cheap.

Pete from PP
Pete from PP

If you think Sabean can figure out a move or two in advance...... It seems Pagan and Beltran are tight, perhaps this is the first step in the move for Beltran.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Beltran will go where the money is. And right now, that doesn't seem to be SF.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Amplifying on that point, I agree, but you have to put the time dimension into the equation too, I think he's looking for more years than the Giants were willing to give, they are probably hoping for 2 years, maybe team option year, while he probably wants 3-5 years. I think he could fall back to the Giants much like Molina did when he didn't get the years he was hoping for.

rog61
rog61

or anywhere else really. Pretty soon he's going to be looking at Tampa Bay money.

Shankbone
Shankbone

Fare thee well Andres, 2010 was awesome. Even though Torres was one of my favorite players I can't blame the Giants for being hesitant with him, not knowing which player was going to show up, 2010 or the last version we saw. He looked very lost last year, and had some mental gaffes on the basepaths that were pretty inexcusable. Pagan is underrated, his defense is not to Torres standard but he has a better arm. Now he might airmail a few throws with that arm, or toss to the wrong base occasionally, but what we are losing in OF coverage will be made up with a more consistent bat. Good trade for both teams, Ramirez has become a good pitcher, but he's the most easily replaceable one on the staff. Looking forward to learning which AA redemption project we snagged for Keppy Kepp.

Peter
Peter

Angel Pagan's worst season was almost as good as Andres Torres' best season. A 262 hitter with speed would have been one of the Giants best players last year.......this was a very low risk move since Ramirez wore down a bit last year

marcellosfg
marcellosfg

??? What type of new math gets you that first sentence? Torres has been the better player the last three years.

The Miracles
The Miracles

Predicted lineup of 2013: 1B Posey 2B Adrianza 3B Sandoval SS Crawford C H. Sanchez. Belt LF, Brown CF, Schierholz RF. All home-grown, no sketchy trades.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Nice but Panik is 1,000 times more likely to be our 2B than Adrianza at this point in 2013. But this has been my point all along, the Giants have been rebuilt by Sabean internally, not because he is incompetent, as many assume, but because it is just that darn hard to find starting players via the draft. He did it the right way, first focusing on the pitching, which then props up the poor offense and allows the team to focus on hitters next in the draft, and that rebuild is almost done. This is why I've been saying for 3-4 years now that the Giants will be the Team of the 2010's Decade.

rog61
rog61

Of course, there's two potential issues there. 1) most of those guys aren't expected to be particularly good major league hitters (and that's a euphemism in a couple of cases); and 2) you're pitching has to still be around when the hitters arrive for it to work. I have to say my biggest issue with your whole Team of the Decade concept is how much it flaunts recent baseball history: going back to 1980 the Yankees are the only franchise to have won as many as three titles in a decade. Only two other teams have won twice in a decade (Toronto and Boston), and only two teams beyond that have won two in a 10 year period (Minnesota and StL). A pretty astounding 19 teams have won championships in that 31 year period (by contrast 17 franchises have won titles in the 64 year history of the NBA). The lesson from that to me is: it's really freakin hard for one core group to win multiple titles. Things go wrong. Plans break apart. The center cannot hold. If they won another title in this decade (or the one after that for that matter) and made a few more postseason appearances I'll be thrilled. Asking for more than that risks angering the baseball gods with hubris!

bradley emden
bradley emden

We lose a pitcher and a year of control over an outfielder. Good move by the mets. ONly thing the giants get is a few years younger, but does it matter, this guy is a free agent after this year. Also what happens to Belt now?

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Hopefully Belt doesn't get pushed out of the starting lineup, but right now, that seems like a likely scenario. If the Giants trade for Pagan, and at the same time move Belt to the bench, or AAA, I like this move a lot less.

Steve B.
Steve B.

Why the hell is Barry Zito still on the roster?

yogiberra
yogiberra

Would it be legally possible to offer Huff's $10 Million contract to the Marlins, for Hanley Ramirez's $11 Million contract, straight-up, and then throw-in the rights for Rowand in the deal, even though SF would still be obligated to pay Rowand, to essentially play against them?

rog61
rog61

I know I have a tendency to be overly skeptical, but I'm having a hard time putting the Giants seeming contempt of Ks (non-Rowand versions) and a successful development of Belt together, as much as i hate to say that. Hopefully injuries or incompetence will force them to throw him into the lineup and he'll seize the day. But the serious discussion of starting Pill just has me shaking my head.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

AT&T's RF seems bigger than others, but I think Melky might be OK there. We've had guys like Burks and Alou play it in the past, and surely Cabrera is better than either of those two.

Andy G
Andy G

Does anyone else worry that Melky in RF in AT&T park is just as bad as him playing CF anywhere else? The alternative is pushing him to LF. But that effectively signs Belt's ticket back to Fresno, barring a .220/.280/.390 line from Huff. Which is possible.

rog61
rog61

Totally agree with that last paragraph. I think I'll make a New Year's resolution to be more optimistic and hopeful. The Giants see Belt's bat is a key to their 2012 fortunes and stick him in there everyday. I'll believe it until I see i'm wrong.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

I think it's possible that the OF could be Belt-Pagan-Melky with Nate playing a 4th OF role. I hope-hope-hope that's how it will play out. Though, Roger's skepticism is warranted: the Giants have a track record and Belt seems to be the odd man out, or could be. I think if the Giants are to contend in 2012 they have to give Belt a good, solid, chance to play. He's one of the few (potential) avenues on the team to above-average production. It would be a shame if they didn't explore it.

Lyle
Lyle

This will definitely move Belt to AAA (barring any injuries), will it not?