The Melkman Prophecies

Published by on November 7, 2011 | 14 Responses

Given the chance to let the dust settle on the Sanchez-Verdugo for Cabrera trade, I’ve shaped my thoughts into concise bullet points based on pluses and minuses.

First, the pluses:

  • Probably the best thing about Cabrera right now is his age; at 27-years-old he’s (theoretically) in his prime baseball years, and that’s always a nice thing to have in a player coming off a 121 OPS+ season.
  • Melky gets the bat on the ball. From 2006-2011 (minimum of 3,000 PAs), Melky ranks 14th in baseball in contact percentage (88%).
  • He appears to be an average-to-above average defender in the corner outfield. Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) has Cabrera at +18 runs over his career in LF; Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) has him at a more average -0.4 runs. In RF, DRS has Cabrera at +3 career runs; UZR has him at 1.5 runs. However, he’s only played 514 career innings in RF vs. 1,907.1 in LF.
  •  ZiPS has Melky at a 103 OPS+ in 2012. When defense is included (projected -6 runs), Melky projects as a 2.7 WAR player. That’s a really nice component to have on your team, actually.
  • Melky sports a career OBP (.331) that’s essentially league average. For a Giants team that made outs left and right, that’s sadly an improvement.
  • The Giants are probably going to save $2M-ish in the deal.

Now, the minuses:

  • He’s really appears to be stretched in CF. DRS has Melky at -16 career runs in CF; UZR at -23.8 runs; The Fan Scouting Report at -8 runs (data only goes back 2009 and 2010 on FanGraphs).
  • Despite an excellent 2011, Melky’s career batting line (.275/.331/.398) paints the picture of a below league average hitter.
  • Cabrera’s .332 BABIP this past season with the Royals was a career high, nearly 30 points over his career average. Expect things to even out a little more in 2012.
  • It’s not Cabrera’s fault, but removing Sanchez from the team means more Zito starts, and that’s not good.
  • Cabrera stole 20 bags last year, but his baserunning numbers make him look more average than above. If the Giants swap Torres out in CF with Cabrera, they’ve downgraded their defense and running game in a single move.

Melky Cabrera isn’t the antichrist, and while I agree that the team did well to get some offensive competency in the mix, I think this deal has a real chance to go sideways depending on how the Giants utilize Cabrera. If the team sticks him in LF — where admittedly the bat doesn’t play as well — I think the deal ends up being a C+/B- type of move. However, if the team runs Cabrera out in CF for 1,000 innings on defense, I’ll move my grade down to D+. Cabrera just doesn’t have the legs to play CF for the Giants, and I still think Andres Torres has a real shot of being a comparable player to Cabrera.

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bradley emden
bradley emden

I guess Bowker is out of the mix, finishing the season with the phillies and not the pirates.

Scott
Scott

Chris, I live part time in NY area, and saw a lot of Melky with the Yankees. He's pretty good, I was sad to see him go, though Granderson is obviously and upgrade. But he seemed to get more than his share of clutch hits. Seeing what the Giants had last year, and their apparent budget ceilings, they are very lucky to have him. Plus, durable every day player (unlike Sizemore).

Jeff
Jeff

Just wondering what Nates defensive metric numbers are. Is it possible for him to be the starting centerfielder? Resign Torres, bye bye Cody and Beltran. Time to make a serious run at Jimmy Rollins

Zig
Zig

I would like to see them tender Andres an offer. With Melky in center and Belt in left possible he is a valuable defensive replacement, pinch runner and spot starter at the least. Upside is he works his way back to a larger role. Lowered expectations should help him. If they cannot sign Beltran I have no problem bringing back Ross if the price is right after non tendering him. In some sense this might be buying low on him. Expectations and injuries might have hurt him last year too. Nate S and Ross are both 3rd/4th outfielder types. Ross shows some big splits. Nate S hasn't proven to be durable or that he can consistently hit. Ross' right handed bat might complement Nate S and Belt being in the mix

Giants fan in So Cal
Giants fan in So Cal

I wish they would have kept Sanchez and done something with Zito in a more creative way…such as this: What if they would have given zito away…free..100% paid for to a team, any team, with the following structure: -Team would pay Giants $500K for every win Zito posts for them…if he wins 10 games for Team…they would be paying $5MM for him…not bad…any Giants get some value. -If Zito wins more than 10 games, it switches to $1MM per win…so, a 15 win Zito would cost team $10MM…not outrageous at all. Bottom line, Zito is not going to win with SF…needs change of scenery…this would take pressure off of him…as his new team and fans would lose nothing but a roster spot if he continues to lose. This feels like the best situation for all parties involved with the only way this would work out bad for Giants is if Zito goes some where else and puts up 10+ wins…which, honestly, does anyone thing that will happen for remainder of his contract with Giants…Gives Giants something back vs. DFA which will come this year for sure if he stays with Giants. Not much can be done now that Sanchez is gone…but would have liked to have seen something a bit more creative.

Joe
Joe

Agree...contracts can not include stat related performance (hits, home runs, wins, etc)...things like games played, plate appearances, etc. are OK. Another team paying Giants for Zito wins would not be allowed. How about this; - Zito + $15M to Cubs ($7.5 each year) - Zambrano to Marlins + another $15M from Giants ($7.5 each year) - Nolasco ($20M over 2 years) + Bonifacio to Giants Cubs get Zito for two years and $31M in stead of Zambrano for 1/$19 Marlins get a back of the rotation starter/big name latino to appeal to Miami corwd. They also free up about $20M over two years to land a big free agent. If that helps them get Reyes then they move Hanley over to 3B. Giants get better #5 starter and shortstop/leadoff hitter. Bonifacio could move to 2B next year if Crawford is ready. Only costs the Giants about $10M over two years assuming Bonifacio earns $5M over next two years.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

Interesting reply. You, yourself, may be GM material.

Sean
Sean

For the love of god, can we please tender Torres a contract, start him in center, play Melky in left (if his bat doesn't profile, well it's not like the hypothetical Ryan Ludwick's of the world would either and frankly, a bat profiling a defensive position is a pretty over-rated concept, especially with an offense as historically bad as it was last year), and get Belt starting at first? I remain pretty skeptical that Huff a.) Only played terrible baseball because of poor conditioning b.) Will get into fantastic shape heading into his age 35 season or that c.) His frustrating good year/ bad year trend isn't just a fluke. Like, dude was really bad at baseball last year.

campanari
campanari

1. The Giants save maybe $2m on the deal, and if having a new (switch-hitting) outfielder means that they can let Ross go, as redundant, they save another $6m. $8m gives them a good start on a contract for Beltran or Reyes in 2012, before Rowand comes off the books in 2013. 2. Unless Cabrera is just blowing smoke when he says that his improvement in 2011 was the result of a much better conditioning program, his career batting line may be misleading, and his BABIP may be higher because he is hitting the ball a lot harder. 3. He has so far not lost a lot of time to injuries, such as afflicted all the Giants' outfielders in 2011.

Spike
Spike

Chris, The important thing to remember is that while Cabrera will not put up 30 HR, .400 OBP, .700 SLG type numbers, he's an average hitter with some speed on the bases, which is an improvement over almost every other hitter the Giants had last year. My question would be what does this move mean for the future of other Giants OFs such as Ross, Torres, and Schierholtz?

bradley emden
bradley emden

schierholtz has some speed as does belt, and even ross had a little bit. Yeah, Rowand was not fast, but for his lack of speed he was still a decent fielder.

@theJTshaw
@theJTshaw

Chris, I think that the points you make both positive and negatives to the trade but let me ask you this. It seems to be a given that the Giants were going to move JS this winter no matter what. So given that was a forgone conclusion and who was available on the free agent market do you like the value they got for Sanchez? Who would you rather have gotten if you could have tried to sell him? It seems to me like once Sabean decided they were going to move Sanchez they were just looking to get the best value they could and get out of town

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Well, in the sense that the Giants got what the market would pay, I'd assume that this was the best value we could get right now. Keeping Sanchez and letting him try to pitch well in a Giants uniform carries some risk, but it wouldn't have been the worst thing to have happened.