Outfield depth in 2012 and Cody Ross

Published by on September 18, 2011 | 17 Responses

I recently posed this question on Twitter: “Question: bring back Ross in 2012? Y/N.” and I got several good responses.

A brief glance at the Giants’ current depth chart for the outfield and you’ll see why the Giants might consider a Ross redux.

The current depth chart, with some commentary.

LF/1B Brandon Belt – Talented prospect, mixed results, could be the starter in LF in 2012
LF Pat Burrell – Health problems, FA in 2012, hard to tell if he’ll be back
OF Andres Torres – Down year in 2011, still under team control
OF Justin Christian – 31-year-old career minor leaguer, has hit .293/.359/.432 in 3,786 minor league games
OF Carlos Beltran – FA in 2012, wouldn’t mind having back, assumed high price
OF Darren Ford – Still under team control, fast, can’t hit
OF Nate Schierholtz – 112 OPS+ in 2011 with the usual solid defense in RF, injury problems with foot

So in our group we’ve got a struggling prospect, a defensively challenged masher signed to an extremely team-friendly deal, our former dynamo leadoff hitter who is also struggling, a career minor leaguer, a highly prized free agent, a fast guy that can’t hit, and a player in Nate Schierholtz that’s had a pretty nice year. Stability it ain’t.

On the flip side, there is Cody Ross.

Year   Age  Tm  Lg   PA Outs BAbip OPS+  ISO
2005    24 LAD  NL   26   22  .267    4 .040
2006    25 TOT  NL  298  220  .249   87 .204
2007    26 FLA  NL  197  118  .371  173 .318
2008    27 FLA  NL  506  352  .299  107 .228
2009    28 FLA  NL  604  430  .306  104 .199
2010    29 TOT  NL  569  397  .324   96 .145
2011    30 SFG  NL  461  323  .279  105 .165
8 Seasons          2683 1874  .301  105 .195

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View
Original Table
Generated 9/13/2011.

The pros for Ross are: league average bat — though he’s doing it differently this year by walking more and hitting for less power — that can play all three OF positions. UZR has Ross as an average defender in LF, CF, and RF. Defensive runs saved — the plus/minus variant — has Ross at +7 in his career in LF, +9 in CF, and +14 in RF.  Those are cumulative scores and not pro-rated on a seasonal basis. Any player that can swing a league average bat and play near average defense in CF is a good player to have.

The cons for Ross are: If the Giants offer him arbitration, chances are he could accept and be expensive. Ross is earning $6.3M this season with the Giants. If the team offers arbitration, and he accepts, he’s most likely going to push his salary in the $8M range. That’s a lot of money for a good versatile outfielder. Ross is around a 2 WAR player most years, so even if the Giants are paying him $8M, his salary wouldn’t be outrageous. However, the current spending climate with the Giants is murky and it’ll be hard to tell how much money — if any — the Giants want to spend this offseason.

The Giants’ number one priority in this offseason should be adding to an offense that’s ranked dead last in the NL for huge stretches of 2011. Recent statements from Brian Sabean indicate that the team is going to first take care of its pitching and then focus on positions like outfield and shortstop afterwards. I’m in favor of bringing back Carlos Beltran to the team, but his salary demands could price him out of the Giants’ budget.

I think the Giants will hang on to Nate, Belt, and Torres* — leaving two spots open in the outfield.

* A quick side-note on Andres Torres … there’s no chance that the team will cut ties with him. He’s struggled at the plate this year, but he’s still arbitration eligible for the next two seasons and his defense and baserunning alone make him a good use of a roster spot. If Torres can get back on track as a hitter, he’s a starter on any team in baseball.

So, Ross certainly seems like a possibility to return to the Giants. There’s (theoretically) room for him on the 2012 roster. Personally, I think the Giants will make a push for David DeJesus; he was a player the Giants had interest in 2010 near the deadline, but DeJesus hurt himself before the Giants could finalize a trade and the team ended up picking up Cody Ross. DeJesus is having a down year (94 wRC+) but he’s been a solid player in the past. He reminds me a little bit, player-type wise, of Randy Winn: average bat, good defense in the OF, good baserunner, solid total package, if not very flashy.

Comment starter: Outside of Beltran, whom we all want, who do you want to fill the final two spots in the 2012 outfield?

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DucktheFodgers
DucktheFodgers

first off, my idea was a very unlikely scenerio, i agree with you on reyes (i am actually more for b crawford to figure it out at the plate) but lets dream a little bit here... 1. the giants have 18mil coming off the books with ross, de rosa, tejada going away. That is a lil bit of breathing room to sign reyes. he would be the only free agent you could sign. the rest are acquired via trade: baltimore needs starting pitching and bullpen help which would be the point of trading b. wilson or j. sanchez plus a non gary brown outfield prospect for jones. Jones is young and cheap and has one more year before free agency. the Rays need offense particularly a 1b-dh, if you eat Huff's cost he fits into that line up perfectly, also send Keppinger and a catching prospect (rays will be in need of a catcher very soon) for BJ Upton (yes his strikeouts are unreal, but he needs a change of scenery and seeing him roam cf will turn him into a fan favorte). Upton is due a raise but still has another year or so before he is a free agent and is cheaper than huff and fills a need. so with those moves you would be at roughly around 120-130mil for payroll depending on what happens in arbitration. 2. zito for zambrano- it looks like zambrano is goin to Florida anyway so its not a problem but, he needs a change of scenery, i think with Boch and the other spanish speaker players on the team, plus the different atmosphere of SF we would see a completely different Zambrano here. Theyre contracts are similar and both teams dont want them. Also, how about Zito for Lackey. Lackey and Boston are not a match, Lackey is due the same amount over three years as Zito is but Zito back in the AL might help him and Lackey back on the west coast in a pitchers park might help. any way no extra money spent and your getting use out of a roster spot.

DucktheFodgers
DucktheFodgers

Trade B. Wilson OR J. Sanchez and Peguero for Adam Jones. Romo is your new closer and Jones turns into a solid major league centerfielder. Christian is the same player as Torres but 1.5 million cheaper, keep him on the bench. Ross... thanks for 2010, good luck with the rest of your career somewhere else. Thanks for a solid september Beltran, good luck with the rest of your career somewhere else. Rays need offense and a dh/1b, eat half Huffs contract and send him back to where he started, along with Keppinger, and a prospect like Tommy Joseph (Giants have Susac, H. Sanchez behind Posey) for BJ Upton. Now you have a starting outfield of Upton in LF, Jones in CF, Schierholtz in RF... Dynamic, defensive, young, and offensively more enticing than anything the Giants have mustered up in the last 5 years. Also you just saved yourself a few million. Sign Reyes. No justification needed. ... and if i could have any wish in the world... Zito for Zambrano straight up. Zambranos firey personality between Lincecum and Cain with Bum and Vogey on the back end. Yes. how bout this for a starting lineup: J. REYES ss F. SANCHEZ 2b B. POSEY c P. SANDOVAL 3b A. JONES cf B. BELT 1b BJ UPTON lf N. SCHIERHOLTZ rf PITCHER bench: H. SANCHEZ PILL CHRISTIAN BURRISS BURRELL

Nick
Nick

Just a couple of questions: 1. With a $125,000,000 payroll, do you honestly think they can/will get all of those free agents? I would love having Reyes, but he's going to be very expensive, and he's injury prone. 2. Why would you want Zambrano over Zito? The Giants need a good clubhouse so the last thing you want is to get someone that will ruin it. 3. What do you do with Huff?

@AlanJobb
@AlanJobb

For me every financial decision the team makes has to be centered around the idea of keeping Lincecum and Cain. The team had thrived despite the awful assortment of FA busts only because their best players have been young and cheap. Whatever they do this off season can not interfere with giving Linceum the huge contract he is going to demand at the end of next off season. Cain is the year after. It is inexcusable for the Giants to sign as FA and then be unprepared for these two.

TZulu72
TZulu72

I second trading for Logan Morrison.

TSF
TSF

Ross should walk in 2012. He's a nice player, but with his injuries and the line ineffectiveness, the Giants aren't getting their money's worth out of him. I've never been a fan of Belt - he needs to bulk up, and practice hitting off-speed pitches - but he should get the starting LF nod next year whether he's ready for it or not. As we've seen with Nate, even a young player can produce when given consistent playing time and a manager's confidence. The Diamondbacks threw everything behind Paul Goldschmidt this year, and he's been a difference maker for them. Coco Crisp should be the Giants' major free agent target, not just for CF, but for RF. AT&T Park's RF is a precarious place where only the most sure-footed and nimble can roam. Nate is excellent defensively, but Crisp in RF would offer an offensive upgrade, especially if Torres returns to form. If Torres can't reproduce anything approaching his 2010 numbers, Crisp can handle CF, while Nate can occupy right. This all assumes we don't resign Beltran, which is becoming less likely as the season goes on. Until Gary Brown is ready for the majors, the Giants outfield will be murky. But management should not attempt to clear it up through expensive free agent signings, especially with upcoming raises for their position players and resigning their soon-to-be free agent pitchers.

DuncanfromGlenhaven
DuncanfromGlenhaven

it will be interesting to see what burrell asks for. i actually think he has a lot of value as a cheap pinch hitter who starts every now and again and can share his experience around the clubhouse. working his way into management etc etc it will also be interesting to see where belt ends up- i can't see him starting in fresno next year, but do they play him at 1B or left. if you can eat the rowand contract then i think you can eat huff (assuming he doesn't come out smoking next season), especially with pill on the way as well. an OF of ross, torres, schierholz plus burrell is injury prone and needs help. if belt is going to be in the outfield then it's just about bearable. add beltran and i think we are close enough to league average in the outfield to be satisfied, and reasonably well balanced for cover. if posey is back healthy (please dear god) then the lineup is actually not bad. not great, but hopefully good enough. torres, freddy, beltran, posey, sandoval, ross, belt, crawford plus nate/burrell/de rosa/etc is actually the best looking starting lineup i have seen in years. even if you sub in nate for beltran it's an upgrade on plenty of recent team sheets. so i guess what i'm saying is this is not the time for a desperation high end FA

Andrew
Andrew

I'd like to see Burrell come back as a power bat off the bench. Burrell will come cheap -- as evidenced by his last contract -- and provides not just power but patience at the plate. So, give me: Nate, Burrell, Belt, Ross and then some new blood. I realize that Torress still comes cheap, but I tend to trust the back of hisbaseball card rather than his career year in 2010 when it comes to projecting him forward. I'll take a CoCo Crisp or a Beltran on a 3-year deal. Don't want him on anything longer than that.

Shankbone
Shankbone

A 2 year deal for $12MM for Ross is the limit. I don't think he will get more than what he is making currently on the free agent market. Offering arbitration is a risk, he is a type B free agent (barely), and I think he surely accepts. Given the lefty bullpen guys as well as Pablo's arbitration, I doubt Sabean will want to have a Ross deal looming. So I bet he saddles his best offer (something around 2/12) and says you got 10 days Cody, then we gotta move on. Coco Crisp will be more expensive than Ross, both in years and dollars. He's proven his health this year and set a career high in SBs. As a one year stop gap, he's great. At the 3/27 he'll get, not so much. The OF market is crappy this year. They should either jump on Ross or cut ties and go with youth. He's still young, plays all 3 OF positions and has some sweet intangibles. He's also the streakiest Giant OF since Reggie Sanders. Dejesus has a weak arm, not much power and is overrated. He will make something on par with Ross, and Cody is all around a better player. FACT. I sure hope the team won't cut ties with Andres Torres, but this is the team that still evaluates based on BA, so never say never. A platoon of Ross/Torres is a) a known base quantity, b) has some upside and c) has some flexability. It won't break the bank either. I'd be very careful with this market looking at the other side of the grass.

BruxB
BruxB

Resigning Ross at $8m would be one of the better investments they've made for an older outfielder in recent memory (Rowand). There should still be some money left over to resign Beltran (and!?) or pick up Reyes.

Josh
Josh

Are there some younger, quality hitters on the market we could pursue in lieu of Beltran - Michael Cuddyer-esque? He'll demand a lot of money for more time than he is probably worth, and given his injury history it wouldn't be nice seeing lots of money going down the drain, especially when we can use that to lock up our pitchers for long term contracts.

Norman
Norman

I would be in favor getting one of the cheaper CF options on the market in Coco Crisp. It's not a flashy move, not a move that's going to excite fans, but it will add some stability to CF. As for LF, the most likely option is Belt, as Huff isn't going to sit and Belt has the most upside. If the Giants re-sign Beltran, you would hope Schierholtz would be in LF and Belt at 1B, but Bochy is the manager, so that isn't likely.

@Joeneverleft
@Joeneverleft

You point out something that has been painfully obvious. The Giants have not had a real impact outfielder since the days of Bonds and Ellis Burks. Its not for lack of throwing money on the ground at Rowand and Roberts and Randy Winn. It's symptomatic of Sabean's inability to match veteran acquisitions with the Giants player development people. Almost universally since 2005, home-growns have outperformed Sabean's acquistions (whether through trade or f/a) by a margin too large to even measure including the pitchers he brought in. And I'll match up Cain, Bum, Sanchez, Lincecum, Wilson and Romo against Vogelsong, Zito, Afeldt, Morris, Tomko, Casilla, and Ramirez anyday of the week too. Sabean's vet acquistions range from occasionally average to horrible, worthless, antagonistic, enraging black holes polyester protoplasm with jersey numbers like Cabrera Tejada Rowand Hildebrand, Pierzynski This is a black hole that is so painfully obvious if folks would stop looking at the trees and take a look at the forest.. If you look at the Giants rankings offensively, they have been nowhere and continue to go nowhere since 2005. And its been Tidrow's, Evans' and Barrs people who have given Giants fans Sandoval, Belt, Posey, and of course the previously mentioned pitchers. Signing or re-signing Ross is fine. I am for bringing back DeRosa too, since his wrist has taken the usual couple of years to heal. These are two nice utility players who apparently offend nobody and are fan-friendly. But neither is an impact player which Sabean while spending impact-player money for years, has failed miserably. Bringing Ross back is fine. Bring back DeRosa. Try and live with another albatross in Huff and Freddy Sanchez' glass body and for the umpteenth year in a row, no-shortstop and no lead off guy, and no back up catcher. The story never changes, just the names of Sabean's failures in the veteran acquisition market.

Squire
Squire

"The Giants have not had a real impact outfielder since the days of Bonds and Ellis Burks. Its not for lack of throwing money on the ground at Rowand and Roberts and Randy Winn." I agree wholeheartedly with this. Its not that the Giants don't have the resources to sign big-name free agents--they simply throw money at the wrong players. To me, that has been Sabean's biggest problem. Instead of having $12 million to spend on a key free agent like Reyes or Beltran, the Giants are using that money to pay Rowand to sit at home. Its just ridiculous.

Seth
Seth

I'm not necessarily a proponent, but I can't help seeing Lance Berkman as a classic Sabean target

Curtis
Curtis

Lance Berkman is too valuable for Sabean to like - no chance they sign him. Power + walks is the antithesis of the Bochy/Sabean "How to Build an Offense" handbook. Think more Carlos lee and Yuni Betancourt types. Jose Reyes is the obvious fit for this team. They need offense far and away above anything else. He is the biggest upgrade out there. Reyes instead of Crawford is probably worth 4-5 more wins. I know that 18-20 mil a year to sign him is steep. But I'd rather spend 18 mil on one great player than 6 mil a year on three Miguel Tejada/Mark DeRosa/Cody Ross types. I'm against signing Beltran simply because that would mean Belt spends the year in Fresno. For next year, I think Beltran will be closer to a sidegrade over Belt than an upgrade. I see Belt batting .250ish with around 22-26 homers and a .360 OB%. I know Sabean and Boch wouldn't value that OPS, but for 500k a year salary, how can you beat it?