Article written by

23 comments
Andy
Andy

just curious...is there any correlation with Belt's position played and offensive performance? meaning, is his offensive performance better playing his natural position at first rather than when he plays in the outfield?

Nate
Nate

Last post continued... I don't see a problem with the Giant's handling of Belt up to that point. They gave a shot from the outset and he struggled and lacked confidence. They were poised to give him a shot in late May, which is a great time to get a young player into the mix because if he succeeds he can be part of the team through the season but if he fails he doesn't affect the stretch run. Since July 19, you can quibble with the Giants' handling of Belt. But as others have noted, Huff has played well since the ASB. They could have played Belt in the OF more, but then they acquired Beltran and Schierholtz had been a consistent performer (until August that is). I would have put Belt in there starting on July 19 to see what the team had before the trade deadline, but I understand why they didn't. Also, there is something to be said for proven experience in the stretch run. Throwing a rookie, who previously admitted to lacking confidence, into a tight race is a risky thing. I would have taken that risk, but I understand why the Giants did not.

Nate
Nate

While I too would have liked more Belt earlier, I think people judge the Giants too harshly on this front. He was the opening day 1B. He played poorly for about 20 games and he admittedly lacked confidence. So the Giants sent him down so that he could get his timing and mind right. The Giants then bring Belt back up in late May after he played well at AAA for 6 weeks, during which time they get him more work in the outfield. He pencilled in to play several games in a row to give Huff a break, which is code for giving the kid a window. But he gets hit on the wrist in the first game of what Bochy said would have been a 3-4 game run. Belt misses 5 weeks with a broken wrist before he can start a rehab stint at AAA. The Giants keep him down for about 10 games. Arguably they could have brought him up sooner, but he's a rookie who hasn't even played much AAA ball. The Giants call him up on July 19. (cont...)

Curtis
Curtis

Anybody that thinks Belt is not a top 3-4 hitter right now on the Giants really has not watched the Giants. To address the 10k versus 3 walks as of late. I know FOR SURE that two of those Ks were walks, but called strike 3 instead of ball 4 on pitches 6 inches or more out of the strike zone on pitch tracker. So you could say he's been UNLUCKY. Sorry, but I would not want my players to swing at pitches 6 inches out of the zone - Obviously I think differently than Dunston, Bam Bam and Bochy, but don't fault Belt for it. The price you pay for striking out a lot, unless you're Bonds, should be more walks and more power. Belt has definitely supported this, so the Ks are fine with me as long as the OPS is up there. Belt batting 7th is just an indefensible strategy - There's no logic to it other than it's the result of a very inept coach. It's almost as bad as leading Cabrera off or batting Jeff Keppinger 2nd versus righties. And nothing worse than people that say leaving Posey in the minors last year helped him developed. There's absolutely ZERO proof of that. For all we know, the Giants' might have run away with the division if they brought him up from the start. Remember, if a guy hits from the moment he's brought up and never stops hitting (See Wade Boggs or Ryan Howard), that just means you left him in the minors far too long.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

It is a very defensible tactic. Belt clearly felt the pressure of being in the majors earlier in the season and let it get to him (see Nate's comments below if you don't know what I'm talking about). Putting him into a pressurized situation now would be an even worse idea. This is not fantasy baseball where a player will play what his stat line says on his card. These are human beings who amazingly are human and some will suffer from the additional pressure. Posey was not one of them. Belt appears to be one who does. You can keep your fantasy about Posey if you want. The major prospect books I got (BA and MiLBA) said that he needed additional work on his defense, though it was improving, and that is a fact. Since his defense looked pretty good at the end of the season, he apparently did learn something important while in the minors. He also did not hit that well in his first month in the minors, so I don't see why putting him in the majors would have improved on that: his MLE for the month was mediocre at best, that's another fact that supports the stance that Posey needed to be in the minors. And, I can play that same game too, for all we know, you could have installed him as the starter earlier in the season and he'll be like Matt Weiters, still struggling to find his offense after three seasons, plus the pitchers might have revolted, not trusting the new guy, and pitched poorly. And I guess you forget that Posey actually hit very poorly, except for his first few games up, while he was first up with the Giants, so you can't note Boggs or Howard, because he did not hit well for a long while, over a month, he did stop hitting.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

I'm all for giving Brandon Belt a chance now, while Cody Ross is in a huge slump and Nate is out injured. But your view appears to be biased. You note that Belt's BABIP has normalized. But as we all know, a hitter's BABIP is anyone's guess this early in his career. The average .300 is just that, each player's is individual, that is just where talent usually is in the majors, for those good enough to stay up. One can hope that his results in the minors translate to the majors, but sadly, there have been many in the past who have been unable to make the transition to the majors. So his BABIP did not "normalize", it got higher, we have no hard evidence that .300 is his normal BABIP level, we can only hope that he is based on his one season in the minors, and a large portion of it not even in the higher levels, stats from A-ball is not very useful, as they don't translate to the majors very well. I am still very leery of a young hitter who is striking out a lot. If he is striking out so much against AAA pitchers, major league pitchers should have a field day with him. Let's look at his hitting since he has been starting regularly, since his 2 homer day in Florida. From that game, he has hit .310/.394/.690/1.084 but with a .375 BABIP and I would say much higher than 10% HR/FB: even if all his non-strikeout outs were flyballs, his HR/FB ratio would be 30%, 3/10. I assume there were a few ground balls in the mix, so this HR rate will not continue, nor his BABIP as he is quick but not that quick, to maintain that high a rate. Meanwhile, he has 10 strikeouts vs. only 3 walks in 29 AB. Which is not that far from his overall seasonal rate, 30 K's in 107 AB, showing that he hasn't learned anything yet and appears to be getting lucky in big ways, both HR and BABIP. Plus, if you take out the 2 HR game, he has been hitting .280/.379/.480/.859, with a BABIP of .400 (HRs don't count in BABIP) in 25 AB, 9 K's vs. 3 BB's, 1 HR out of 9 AB, which is closer to his talent level than the above. At this point, his hitting metrics are too high to continue (HR/FB and BABIP) and should regress hard given how high they are, particularly given the strikeout rate. Right now, Bochy appears to be just riding the hot hand plus Nate is injured and not available. However, my support for Belt to start comes from some fan (DrB) scouting that I found compelling. DrB wrote this after Belt's 4 hit game: "OK, I'm ready to say it. Belt is ready to be a starting player in the major leagues! The dinger was an inside fastball that he pulled his arms in for, turned on it and drove it off the facing of the second deck in RF while his parents, wifey and extended family cheered him on. He pulled another inside pitch into RF for a single, went the other way on an outside pitch and pulled yet another one on the outer half of the plate to right-center. He's closed up the holes in his swing and is comfortable enough to be more aggressive." That, to me, shows a hitter who can adjust to the pitching to get hits, and I can accept strikeouts from a hitter being aggressive, but just not when he's getting fooled often, as he was early in the season, he was horrible that first month after he got that first homer, he got too homer happy. That I can get behind, but his numbers suggest a sharp fallback at some point. But some players have been able to keep up such a high pace for an extended period (like Francoeur his first time in the majors), so hopefully Belt can continue it for the rest of this season. But I wouldn't expect it either.

@rog61
@rog61

On the bright side, it's becoming ever so slightly possible to squint the right direction and visualize a Giants offense that isn't entirely helpless in the next couple of years. With a Franchez, Sandoval, Posey, Belt top of the order next year, maybe even a top of the order appearance by the Gary Brown Experience, and a side helping of Ever so Average Nate! Alongside our brilliant pitching staff, that should be a pretty good team. Now if everything can please manage to not go all to hell before that happens, I'd appreciate it.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

I do think you overestimate the front office's ability to regret, or maybe more accurately, underestimate their ability to rationalize. You are aware, aren't you, of how many games we won due to veteran savvy that doesn't show up in numbers?

GiantTorture
GiantTorture

It's not just games, the Giants won the World Series with veteran savvy, well that and a great pitching staff.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

And some great luck to have some mediocre hitters get red hot at just the right time. I've said it here before, every single World Series champion ever was good AND lucky. No exceptions.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

Let me put it another way: The A's were a great team. They were lucky to get to the World Series with their players all healthy and playing well. They were lucky other teams thought Dave Stewart sucked. They were lucky Bob Welch's arm didn't fall off.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

You mean to tell me that they A's got through two rounds of the playoffs without a single player on their team being on a hot streak or a single player on the opposing team going on a cold streak? That's pretty amazing.

Alejandro
Alejandro

uhh, the 1989 A's completely blew us out. No luck there.

GiantTorture
GiantTorture

Oh great another lunatic fringe post about how things would've been different if they would've played Belt. Belt's play just proves that the Giants did the right thing in waiting to play him the same way they helped Posey by keeping him in AAA last year. #Sabeanthink

Josh
Josh

Great post. Its been sad to see Huff trot out every day as our #4 hitter with a sub .250 average and a sub .300 OBP (I think). How many opportunities is Bochy going to give the man? Even with Belt's low average (in a limited number of at bats), his OBP has been good for a Giant. Probably a perk of Belt's good eye and ability to show plate discipline. I can remember several times in the past week or so when Huff has come in, bases loaded, and popped out on the 1st or 2nd pitch of an at-bat. The name Belt is also synonymous with hitting the ball hard, Huff is associated more with being tired and winded.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

Huff since ASB: .276/.338/.447/.785, 4 HR in 123 AB, 20 K/13 BB Since July 23: .299/.366/.485/.851, 3 HR in 112 AB, 15 K/12 BB Last 7 games: .280/.387/.560/.947, 1 HR in 25 AB, 5 K/5 BB Yeah, that's pretty sad, wouldn't want that in the middle of the lineup. And really, Huff has come up with bases loaded several times this past week? I went through each game, not one bases loaded situation, in fact, he started off the inning a lot and started a number of rallies. And I note his batting line above again. If Belt were batting leadoff, yeah, getting on base would be a very good thing with a low batting average; not so much if he is batting in the lower spots in the lineup, I find that most walks don't lead to RBIs, especially when you got Stewart, Whiteside, or Fontenot batting behind you.

marcellosfg
marcellosfg

Ahh, I have missed your micro-splits. It's unbelievable that you could have followed baseball this long and not learned their value. In an attempt to speak your language, and "bridge the gap", here you go: Huff since ASB: .268/.329/.433 Since July 23: .280/.339/.460 - meh, not bad, but not what you want from a defensively challenged 1B Last 7 games: .192/.300/.385 Yeah, that's pretty sad, wouldn't want that in the middle of the lineup. Stop using micro-splits. Try to learn something about this game you're passionate about.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
obsessivegiantscompulsive

And still the misunderstanding of how micro-splits help you understand where a player is within a season. You should read Ron Shandler, then maybe you will understand how important it is to look beneath the seasons stats (though I didn't learn this from him, I was doing that long ago). And your ignorance of what the true question really is. It is people like you I prey upon in Fantasy Baseball, you all dump the poor performing guys but don't notice that he had finally figured out what his problem is and had been hot for a number of weeks already, but his poor numbers early in the season masked his recent goodness. I love you all! The question is not whether Huff is a poor overall 1B, as the answer for this season is obvious: he has been a poor 1B this season, overall. The question is how to improve the offense we currently have and whether you are removing one of our better hitters from the lineup. If you remove Huff from the lineup, then yes, you did just remove one of our better hitters for the past month and arguably made the lineup worse. A lot of people worry about the standards of a position when the question should be "how can you maximize your wins with this combination" because bitching and moaning about not having Albert Pujols at every position in the lineup won't make that fantasy come true. Standards don't matter, it is the combination of offense and defense and how that leads to wins that matters. In any case, to make the offense better, it is pretty clear that removing one of your hottest hitters from the lineup won't do that. And Huff has been one of our better hitters since the All Star break: http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/spli... And, FYI, I see your "meh" and raise you double meh: since you don't like Huff's recent performance as a meh performance then you wouldn't want this guy starting at 1B either: .230/.324/.393/.717, 37 strikeouts in 122 AB. His name is Brandon Belt, if you didn't guess it yet. And since this article was written, he has started all four games, hitting .133/.188/.133/.321 with 7 K's in 15 AB, no extra-base hits. And I'm not arguing to keep Belt out of the lineup, I think he should be the starter in LF right now, especially with neither of Ross or Torres doing anything, and Nate on the DL. Though if he keeps on hitting like this, a K in every 2 AB, I would rather see DeRosa out there. I just don't see the value of removing one of your better hitters in the lineup (Huff), even if it is to add a better hitter (Belt), when you can play both in the lineup, and that was the situation and context when this article was posted. I would like to see you quote a baseball study that shows that removing one of your better hitters is the better move to make. Keep Belt Awkward!

Josh
Josh

Huff has been better as of late, but when I look at his stats this season is see a .231/.306/.315 with runners in scoring position while a guy like Schierholtz has numbers that are more solid, overall and with RISP. I guess my real frustration is with Bochy's insistence on keeping Huff in the 4 spot when for most of the season he hasn't come through. Hopefully the guy turns it around

GiantTorture
GiantTorture

Belt is untested and will not come through in the clutch the way that a savvy veteran like Huff will. He needs to be around the big club more and sit on the bench to feel like he belongs there.

Rob
Rob

Your wisdom is appreciated. Our 'broadband' society wants everything right away. It does not work that way in baseball. Take care.

Old Giant Fan
Old Giant Fan

I remember akid named McCovey who displaced a veteran named Cepeda back in the day and he turned out pretty good!

Rob
Rob

LOL... Belt is not McCovey.