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Lyle
Lyle

As a reformed Peguero fan, I think you have him way too high. I need to actually make a current list, but I've started one and so far I've gotten to 16 with no serious consideration of Peguero yet. The tools are tempting, and although I'm nowhere near a Walk Nazi, I just don't see him making it successfully to the majors. Thanks for the list, and your comments. I have Belt, Brown, Hembree, Panik, Sanchez, Surkamp, Kickham, Dominguez, Correa, and Crawford in my Top Ten. And I'm aware that my Dominguez ranking is unpopular, but in an organization as starved for power as we are, any defensively-competent slugger gets the benefit of my doubt. Thus I have Duvall at #11 and Kieschnick at #14.

@rog61
@rog61

Wow, Lyle. Not sure how you can have Dominguez that far above Peguero. Dominguez can give Pegs lessons on not taking a walk. If Peguero's 32/5 k/bb at Richmond looks bad, how much worse does Dominguez' 58/6 in roughly the same number of ABs. Peguero's looked rough, but he's still got .040 OBP on Dominguez. He's also 1.5 years younger and can play a more important defensive position better.

@rog61
@rog61

My tendency is to excuse some the contact rates issues he's shown this year because of the hand surgery, and then be excited that he's showing newfound gap power to go with his traditional good plate discipline. Of course, that's a dangerous "I'll see what I want to see" sort of game and I'll accept it if anybody wants to slap me for it, but I feel comfortable being guardedly optimistic about Ehire's season. Because a plus defensive SS, who walks 10% of the time and has enough gap power to keep pitchers honest could be a heck of valuable player.

Roger
Roger

I like Parker, or at least I've softened on him considerably, but I really can't see ranking him this highly. While the ability to get on base is nice, and he definitely provides defensive value, it's hard for me to see where the package of such extreme contact problems combined with disappointing (at least for the Cal League) power takes him. I suppose the dream scenario is he turns into some kind of Mike Cameron, but I'm not sure what odds I'd place on him getting there. And I particularly can't see ranking him above Chris' perpetual whipping boy Ehire Adrianza, who's a) a better defnesive player at a more important defensive position; b) provides a lot of the same plate discipline skills; c) has less contact issues, and d) has actually hit for more power this season, and e) is all in all having a much better offensive season than Parker in the Cal league, albeit in half as many PA. That's a head scratcher to me. (Correa as well).

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

How much weight do you place on Ehire's "power surge" in the CAL this year? He's slugging nearly 130 points over his career slugging percentage. I think, for me, I would rank Ehire around the #10 spot, but I wonder how much his hot hitting in the CAL is due to a small-ish sample and a better league to hit in. Though, as long as he he's a plus-defender at short (he still is, right?) he doesn't have to hit MUCH to be useful or have a future in the bigs.

@rog61
@rog61

That's the million dollar question with Ehire this year, isn't it? In one sense, a two HR game in Lancaster certainly doesn't leave me waiting a HR explosion. But there are reasons to think that the added power is somewhat real. For one thing, although his overall numbers in Augusta were somewhat ugly with the bad K and bad BABIP, he was showing the added power there (with a .150 Iso and 45% xbh/h) already before coming to the Cal League. And of course, this year's performance is a huge improvement over his first Cal League experience, with a SLG .120 higher. That can be bad (repeat performance) or good (showing some physical maturation between ages 20 and 21 that's not unexpected or unlikely).

Kramer
Kramer

I just wanted to get your thoughts on Tommy Joseph and how it seems like, as of now, he will be blocked by Posey who looks like our catcher for the long haul (unless he changes position due to his injury). Do you think Joseph could play another position, or do you even think Sabean could utilize him as a trading chip. Sorry if it's worded very poorly.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

Joseph and Sanchez have grown through the Giants system together as catchers. This was the year where they parted ways to develop at their own pace, after working together in Augusta. Joseph got reps at first last year, while Sanchez stuck behind the plate. It's the same this year when they were on the same roster. So the logical suggestion would be first, but then there's Brandon Belt. Belt's already having trouble getting playing time. That would throw another young player into a mess if they decide to move Joseph to first. In a black and white world that would leave a trade as the only option for Joseph. But we know it's not always that easy. I wouldn't be surprised if Sabean did trade Joseph, especially based on his record of trading prospects this season. On the other hand, Joseph has been described as "untouchable" by sources I cannot name. I never know what Sabean is thinking.

Paapfly
Paapfly

Nice job with this! I am looking forward to the rest. On the one hand I'm shocked you've ranked Peguero ahead of Brown. On the other hand I'm excited that you still rate him so highly. I still like him as a prospect. But, I must admit, his complete inability to improve his walk rate even some and his struggles thus far in Double-A have me a bit concerned. I'm pretty excited about Panik as well. It would be super nice if he could stick at shortstop and be average there. He'll for sure be in San Jose to start next year, right? It would seem like a long shot, at least to me, that they'd start him in the Sally League.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

I love what I've seen from Peguero. When he's right, he's an exciting hitter and outfielder. I'm also encouraged that he's been able to stay healthy, aside from the knee problems this season. I can't comment on Panik's 2012 team for certain but I would eat my boyfriend's ratty old fedora if Panik didn't make the SJ squad for Opening Day. Combined with his 2011 performance, his draft position, and the Giants' tendency to push their top prospects, I'm counting on him in SJ next year.

@rog61
@rog61

The Brown/Peguero contrast is a really interesting one to me (as a long time supporter of Peguero). i can see the ranking personally: they're roughly the same age, probably bring roughly the same power potential and speed. Brown I think rates out as the better defensive CF, though Peguero offers the flexibility option of also playing a plus RF because of his stronger arm. Really the question comes down to: do you believe in Brown's Cal league walk rates, or will he revert to his free swinging ways as he moves up (I saw an article somewhere last week where he said he really hates walking and loves to swing the bat). It's interesting to me that Peguero has actually walked more this year in his 70 some PA in SJ than he has in his 200+ PA in Richmond. Does this suggest that as he gets more comfortable in an environment and slows the game down that he might be more circumspect about his swinging, or at least (like Panda at his best) patient enough?

@rog61
@rog61

I don't have any answers but these are the questions at the crux of ranking those two. I'd go Brown/Peguero because of Brown's better contact rate and thus far walk rate, but in the end I really feel it doesn't much matter. We've essentially got two of the same guy which is better odds than having one of the same guy. Let's just hope one of them is able to develop into a valuable starter. If we can get one Brett Gardner out of these two prospects (and maybe one valuable 4th OF out of the other) it'll be great. (sorry, the machine made me split it in two)

Curtis
Curtis

Totally off topic... But thought you all might enjoy a good laugh... [b]“We just need to get better at-bats,” Sabean said. “Right now, we’re in a spot where we don’t have much team speed. We’re station to station. We need to walk more or pop the ball once in a while, hit some home runs. We’re not getting any of that. So you can’t manufacture runs or you keep an inning going or get a three-run inning.”[/b] There are so many witty comebacks to this, I'll let everybody else have a crack at it.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Thanks for posting this, Chris. I always love another perspective on the system. I largely agree with your list. Probably my biggest difference is Hector Correa ... he probably doesn't make my top 20, but I'm a notoriously hard grader for relievers. I actually saw Correa pitch in a game in Richmond this past year. He threw a fastball that (by the stadium gun) topped out at 94 mph and slider in the lower 80's. He looked like your classic fastball/slider reliever. I like the aggressive Peguero ranking. I really hope he makes good on his tools. To me, Peguero has had an up-and-down year; he was showing some patience when he got to AA but he's back to his hacking ways now. It's hard to know what to make of him right now. He's got a ton of upside, but like most prospects, there's a good bit of volatility mixed in with him. It's hard seeing his current approach working in the majors.

kdl
kdl

Good stuff! I would have Brown over Peguero, and maybe Surkamp over Peguero as well. (I'm not much of a believer in Peguero because of his 5 walks in 223 PA's in Richmond.) Happy and surprised to see Tommy Joseph ranked so highly.

Curtis
Curtis

Awesome report. I do think however you've been a tad bit too hard on Ehire Adrianza - maybe he cut you off in the parking lot or something before a game. I think he's having a better year than Gary Brown and Peguero, if you factor in the position, his recovering from the injury and his age (Assuming that's his real age - he might be 24 for all we know). Plus, he's improving with each month while Brown cooled down after a great start and has sort of leveled off. I LOVE Adrianza's patience at the plate (especially after watching the 2011 Giants all year), and his .858 OPS in the CAL league (only a few points lower than Brown's and higher than Peguero's) looks very promising for a switch hitting SS. After all, Giants need OPS more than anything, especially from middle infielders. Admittingly I haven't seen him live - so I don't know about his range, but have followed his numbers throughout the year. The injury seemed to have caused him a slow start, but since he's picked it up, I can't see what you don't like about him. Personally, I value him more than Peguero and Brown at this point. His 19 doubles in 174 at bats leads me to believe he has great gap power, and with his patience, his switch hitting, I see his ceiling as a Jimmy Rollins type (the non mvp years) with out as much speed. Is there something I'm missing about Adrianza from not seeing him in person, cause on paper, he seems legit? Also, I don't think you overrated Parker at all - I like him a lot. Giant's desperately need some power in their farm system, and he looks like the best bet. Also, I think Susac should be a top 10 candidate - he's a stud. Most scouts valued him higher than Panik at draft time and pretty much agree it was the Giants' best pick. Maybe drop Hector Sanchez - his horrible OPS at AAA REALLY frightens me. Other than that, I mostly agree with your list. Great job - looking forward to 11-20 (this seems like the hard part).

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

I was really hyped for Adrianza in San Jose last year. I think he's a victim of way too much hype. He's not a bad player. Like I've said before his defense and glove is superb. He is hitting better than I can recall in the Cal League this time around. But everyone was telling me to look at him as a top 5 guy and to me he just isn't. He chases bad balls and lacks aggressiveness at the plate. I think I mentioned that before. I've also seen an uncharacteristic laziness in his defense lately. The other night at SJ Muni he just plain gave up on a ball to his left. I've seen him range to make plays harder than that one. Seeing a guy bail out on his best tool like that (more than a few times) knocks him down a few pegs for me. He is young. That's positive. And we're fortunate because Venezuelans are rarely implicated in false age scandals. :)

@Eddie_Mar
@Eddie_Mar

Very cool Chris. Thanks for this! After hearing about pitching, pitching, pitching for so long, its interesting to see so many offensive weapons (potentially) at our disposal. This, to me, was encouraging after recent struggles at the big league level. The future is looking good. Let's thank the D-backs for struggling and keeping hope alive in 2011 as well!

Glenn (GiantTamale)
Glenn (GiantTamale)

Thanks for the article. As a Giants fan, it is great to see in depth analysis of our farm system. Does this list not consider Edelfsen, Kown and Yourkin as top prospects? As a joke....where does Zito fall?! lol

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

Sorry, I forgot to address Kown and Yourkin! Those two guys are journeymen AAA pitchers. They throw well, but their time as prospects has passed. Should they get a chance with the Giants (or another team) and have a Vogelsong-type year, I would be very pleased. But they're not viable options for the future.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

It seems like the org had given up on Edlefsen. I've seen him in SJ and Fresno the last few years and liked him. He has good numbers, a good repertoire, thus has always ranked highly for me. But the Giants never gave him a chance. It took catastrophic injuries to the bullpen to think of calling Edlefsen up. True, before he came up the bullpen was just so stacked that they didn't need him. In my eyes he is a prospect, but I'm not sure where he fits into the system because of the management's lack of commitment to his development.

oldjacket
oldjacket

In our preseason rankings, Chris talked me into Tommy Joseph and I talked him into Hector Sanchez.

Roger
Roger

I still don't know what to make of Sanchez. The bizarro promotion made it really difficult to evaluate his year (and I don't think it's done his development any favors either). What we now seem to have is a guy who's spent half the year being about league average in the Cal League (with a horrible walk rate but nice power) and about half the year being pretty terrible int he PCL (with a decent walk rate and no power). All wrapped up in a package of questionable conditioning and defensive skills. By rights he should still be in A ball where he's perfectly age appropriate and was putting up encouraging numbers, so one shouldn't read too much into the AAA struggles. But I still have no idea what the package I just described is.