Prospect mail bag 8/17/11

Published by on August 17, 2011 | 20 Responses

Hey, all. I’m back with another prospect mailbag.

This week has been god awful for those following the Giants. I moved into my new apartment not too long ago and I’m glad I don’t yet have cable hooked up because if I had to watch the Giants right now, I’d drive off the overpass.

Instead we will discuss two young hitters in the system: Fresno first baseman/second baseman Brett Pill, and Augusta third baseman Adam Duvall.

Kevin McDonald asked via email about Pill and compared his 2009 Eastern League year and his 2011 Pacific Coast League year to his 2010 PCL campaign; that is, 2009 and 2011 were good, 2010 was not.

Kevin was ahead of the topical times. I received that email about a week ago, days before my Twitter feed exploded with queries on Pill and why he wasn’t being recalled to save the Giants offense.

Pill stopped being a prospect a while ago. There are guys in the Giants system who were uniquely claimed by me and by my colleague Kevin Cunningham, who taught me most of what I know about covering minor league baseball. Pill was one of Kevin C’s guys. Pill broke out with a good year in Class A Augusta in 2007, showing power and the ability to hit. One thing he steadily increased as he advanced through the system was his ability to draw walks. While that skill never became a selling point for him, it increased and it left me with hope.

Then came the 2009 EL season that Kevin M mentioned: 19 homers, 109 RBIs, and a .348 OBP, his best of any season including this year’s .342 mark. He also smacked doubles around the field, something he’s done well in every full season he’s had.

2010 wasn’t necessarily bad for Pill. That year he had 16 home runs, 84 RBIs, and greatly reduced his strikeouts. His OBP suffered but he proved he was once again the doubles king. That year killed the momentum he had as a prospect, however, and put him as a repeat performer in Fresno for 2011.

This season Pill is one of two players in MiLB who has over 100 RBIs. The other is Modesto Nuts third baseman Nolan Arenado, whom I interviewed earlier this year for the Cal League notebook. Go on, read it:  http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110503&content_id=18574322&vkey=news_l110&fext=.jsp&sid=l110

I picked Arenado for an interview with the hopes that he’d bust out and make me look like a prospect picking hero. I like being right.

Anyway, Pill also exploded with power and is sitting near the top of the PCL home run leaderboard. Look at the other names there: Cody Ransom, Mat Gamel, Wily Mo Pena, Chris Davis. Mike Jacobs is also in the mix with 23. Yuck. It’s a whos-who of never-was prospects. At least there’s guys like Tacoma’s Alex Liddi and Trayvon Robinson, who are actual prospects.

It’s more of the same for Pill. He’s not a prospect anymore, but he’s a decent hitter. He was outrighted off the 40 man roster in November, signaling the end of his prospect aspirations.

I could see Pill hanging around pro ball. Remember Scott McClain a few years ago? The minors career RBI king finally got his chance with the Giants in September 2008 and he hit his first career Major League homer with the club. Pill could have the same career as McClain. While he’s not a prospect anymore, he’d still get paid to play baseball. I’d take that job in a minute.

Over on BCB, Lyle asked:

What can you tell us about Adam Duvall? What kind of hitter does he appear to be? What might his best defensive position be? Does he seem too old for his league to you? And with which current or former major-leaguer might we reasonably compare him?

Lyle asked this question while Duvall was on the DL. The third baseman has since returned and resumed his team leading power pace. He’s over the hamstring injury that sidelined him from July 21-August 11.

When I saw this cat raking in the South Atlantic League I about fell out of my chair. His 2010 year in short-season Salem Keizer should have prepared me for a big 2011 campaign. He showed encouraging power in 192 at-bats.

What I like most about Duvall is his ability to balance walks and strikeouts this year. He’s at 52 walks to 83 strikeouts. His OBP is at .385 and he has 26 doubles. I think there might be too much hype about the 20 home runs, though of the top power hitters in the Sally League, Duvall has one of the best walk rates. If he was a top home run hitter and he had a ton of strikeouts we wouldn’t even be talking about him.

I haven’t seen him play in person. I do my best assessment of guys when I can watch them. All I can tell right now is he’s avoiding the main pitfall of young power hitters because he isn’t striking out a million times a season. I like that.

Last year he played about two-thirds of his time at third and split the rest of the time between second and DH and made eight errors in 54 games. This year he’s been the main man at third for the GreenJackets, with 326 of his 370 at-bats at the position. He has 25 errors all at third. It’s not Charlie Culberson territory, when Culberson was clanktastic in both his Sally League seasons in 2008 and 2009. I tend to expect (and to a point, forgive) higher error totals from second and third baseman and shortstops.

All that means is I’ll be watching Duvall for possible defensive problems and for plate discipline in 2012 when he’s likely in San Jose.

As for Duvall’s age per the league, as I said before I don’t subscribe to it as much as others do. When it comes to college guys, I value their experience more than looking at a soon to be 23-year-old like Duvall and saying “too old, kthxbye.”

Duvall played two full seasons with Louisville in 2009 and 2010. He’s also listed as having 20 at-bats in Western Kentucky in 2007 and he played the 2008 season at Chipola College, a junior college in Florida that’s well known for its baseball team. Again with the topical appeal: Blue Jays slugger Jose Bautista was on the 2001 squad.

Anyway, Duvall had a .444 OBP and hit nine home runs with 37 RBIs in 151 at-bats for the 2008 team.

He has a lot of experience. Knowing that, I would have liked to have seen him in San Jose to start the year, but I know that was next to impossible with Chris Dominguez getting the nod there as the better prospect.

A comp for Duvall at this point is really difficult for me to determine. Because I haven’t seen him play in person, I can’t get a really good mental picture of what kind of ballplayer he is. I promise you I will address that question when I see him next year.

Great questions, guys! Please keep them coming. You have three ways of passing along your questions: here on the blog in the comments section, via email (chelmrtz@gmail.com), or on Twitter (chelmrtz). See you next week!

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Hankster54
Hankster54

I know this kid Duvall. His desire and workout ethic is over the top. Watch for him to make steady progress. Very hard worker.

Willy
Willy

What about Max Ramirez the catcher on Fresno. It looks like he's had a nice 40 games (hitting at least) with the Grizzlies, any thoughts on him or his possible future in the bigs?

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

He's on the docket for next week, which is going to be the last mailbag before I go on hiatus!

@paapfly
@paapfly

Maybe you can touch on Charlie Culberson. I'm way, way down on him. I'm curious if you feel the same. I also wonder if you might touch on why everyone seemed to be so high on him coming into 2011 when he had one decent (not great) season in A-Advanced and a good AFL season. I mean, he'd otherwise been atrocious with both the glove and stick in back-to-back Sally League seasons.

yogiberra
yogiberra

With off-season trades between established players, usually the salaries of the tradees have to balance out....J.Sanchez & B.Wilson get a combined $13 Mil. Since they're both still in their 20's, with the potantial for comebacks, they could command a decent starting pitcher, who's in the last year of a longer contract!

yogiberra
yogiberra

Anyone think it's time to trade Brian Wilson, while he's still worth something? There must be a team around the Hollywood area that will pay him $6+ Mil., for his image.... Saves in general, are over-rated! It usually amounts to pitching to 1-3 guys, who are under enormous pressure to get a hit, usually a home run, in the 9th, while being down 1-3 runs. Though he has great luck, Brian has the worst WHIP on the Staff, and it's been that way for some time! Or how about B. Wilson + J. Sanchez for the likes of a Cliff Lee, Kershaw, Cahill, Latos, Weaver, F. Hernandez, etc. during the off-season?

Roger
Roger

I was with you up until the notion that Wilson + Sanchez might equal a CYA worthy ace. That's not happening. In fact, if something dramatic doesn't happen in the next month, I'm not completely sure that Sanchez makes the package more valuable or less.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

I was a proponent of trading Wilson before last year, when I felt his value was at its peak. I too hate his high WHIP and the fact that he's prone to giving it up a lot this year. That tendency was almost absent in him last year. I nearly threw up watching him blow it in Atlanta. Don't get me started on his stunt in Detroit...blowing the game and then his stupid tantrum in the dugout. I don't know that Wilson and J Sanchez would command a top of the line starter like the names you threw out. The natural order of MLB trades call for prospects in exchange for established Major Leaguers, esp. All-Stars and high save guys like Wilson. And Sanchez has been the most mock-traded pitcher in the league the last few years, it seems. So, what about a solution? Like Doc said below, Hembree? I'd like to see him get a shot. Dunno if it'd be this year. But I'm over Wilson blowing games. Been over it for a while.

yogiberra
yogiberra

If it wasn't for Elroy Face, back on the powerful hitting, 1959 Pirate Team, who went 18-1, despite "Blowing" 10 leads, and then coming in 7th in the MVP voting, after only pitching 93 innings that season, there wouldn't be any such thing as today's Save-Specialist!

Doc
Doc

I think by and large we're crying over spilled milk here. I honestly do not believe they could simply find another closer who has been as good at closing as Wilson has over the last 3 seasons (and especially the 2010 post season). Consider what life was like after 2002 when Nen was gone. The list of god-awful closers is well known around here, but it bears repeating. Worrell, Hermanson, Walker, Benitez, Hennessey and occasionally several others (Accardo, etc.). Think about what it was like having those guys and how long it took to finally find Wilson and it becomes clear (to me at least) that a closer's value has to be measured by something more than every other relief pitcher.

Doc
Doc

Unlike a lot of people I do not believe all effective relief pitchers can close and if there is one thing BW does (for the most part) is close out games. Sure, the save is an overrated stat, but there simply are not a lot of guys wired the way BW is in terms of his ability to finish ball games. I believe with better health his stuff will improve, because lets face it, he hasn't been 100% all year. And to that end, his stuff can be very good and he has shown the ability to pick up new pitches. That will only help him down the road. Now if he struggles, and I mean really struggles, for all of 2012, perhaps it's time to try someone else (Hembree?). But for now I firmly believe he is a top tier closer and one they should hold onto and continue to show confidence in.

Roger
Roger

Setting aside the closer mentality argument, I think the point you're making that I'd question Doc, is whether we can expect Wilson to get healthier. With the exception of very very few outliers, the career of a closer tends to be a bright burning object that flashes through the sky and then burns out. It's really taxing on the arm. Most of them end up like Broxton or Gagne or whoever you'd like to name: a couple or a handful of brilliant seasons and then the arm falls off, followed by several failed attempts to get it back. And it's not like Wilson has a very healthy background. He started his career with TJ. He broke a rib in his first big league performances. He's been plagued by periodic back problems. And as the graph Chris linked to the other night showed, his velocity has been in serious decline the last couple of years. My guess is that expecting him to get healthier next year isn't too many steps removed from expecting somebody to jump out of an airplane and fall upwards. It just doesn't seem much like the natural way of things.

Curtis
Curtis

Saves = multi million dollar contracts, not ability. Wilson's save % for his career is 87% (average at best), so I'm not sure what basis there is for saying he can "finish ball games." Sounds like a cliche some old timer broadcasting a game would use. According to stats however, it's not really true. Unless you are the Yankees or Sox, paying a closer big bucks is just not smart. 60 innings a year for 10% of your budget (especially one depleted by Zito, Huff & Rowand) is not a productive way to spend your money. Having said that, Sabean will make him the highest paid closer in the game with a 7 year contract. Although making Hembree "untouchable" at the trade deadline tells a different story.

Doc
Doc

Appreciate the write up, but you don't really talk about why you think Pill is not a prospect any more, choosing instead to just state that based on his stats from the last couple years. If you've seen him in person, what are your impressions of him as a player? Or are you not comfortable enough to give a scouting evaluation in terms of what physical/technical issues he has that have held him back? Totally understand if your expertise is more stats-driven.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

I've seen him in person and I saw nothing worth writing home about. His swing is average. He plays serviceable defense at first (I haven't seen him play second). Usually when I see a prospect type guy I can see at least one good tool in him--even Adrianza, whom I've almost given up on, is a plus defender with good range and a fantastic glove. I haven't seen anything in Pill that breaks out above his average skill set. Hope that helps.

Adam
Adam

Cool, thanks for that Chris.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

You've offended the Pill Party. Prepare for the wrath. I really like Duvall's season. From what I can gather, he's clank-ish with the mitt, but, I think it was Roger that pointed it out, he's having a pretty historic season (in terms of power) for the SAL League. He's probably close to a top ten prospect on my list. Brett Pill is very overrated and I don't get the clamor for him. Once you get past the RBI totals -- which, let's face it, we're better than that -- there isn't a ton to like. He's old-ish, and the PCL is like some crazy hyper league for baseball. League adjustments matter and they should be applied heavily to Pill.

Chris Martinez
Chris Martinez

Duvall earned a spot at #15 on my upcoming prospect update list. He's one of the guys I'm anticipating for 2012.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

One more thing RE: PCL stats Manny Burriss is slugging .427 in the PCL right now. If that doesn't tell you something about league adjustments, I don't know what does.