Quick post this morning since I’m in between a few things. Today’s topic: Madison Bumgarner is very young, and good!
A couple of Baseball-Reference Play Index searches to prove my point.
Search criteria: 1950-2011, age capped at 21-years-old, at least 250 IP, 60% of games started, sorted by ERA+
Rk Player ERA+ IP From To Age 1 Mark Fidrych 159 250.1 1976 1976 21-21 2 Dwight Gooden 155 744.2 1984 1986 19-21 3 Bill Stafford 144 255.0 1960 1961 20-21 4 Vida Blue 144 392.2 1969 1971 19-21 5 Bret Saberhagen 132 393.0 1984 1985 20-21 6 Fernando Valenzuela 132 495.0 1980 1982 19-21 7 Dave Rozema 131 427.2 1977 1978 20-21 8 Gary Nolan 131 485.1 1967 1969 19-21 9 Britt Burns 127 250.2 1978 1980 19-21 10 Don Drysdale 126 531.2 1956 1958 19-21 11 Bert Blyleven 122 729.2 1970 1972 19-21 12 Clayton Kershaw 121 278.2 2008 2009 20-21 13 Frank Tanana 120 552.1 1973 1975 19-21 14 Madison Bumgarner 119 266.1 2009 2011 19-21 15 Dennis Eckersley 119 386.0 1975 1976 20-21
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/10/2011.
And for fun, if we limited our search to lefties…
Rk Player ERA+ IP From To Age 1 Vida Blue 144 392.2 1969 1971 19-21 2 Fernando Valenzuela 132 495.0 1980 1982 19-21 3 Britt Burns 127 250.2 1978 1980 19-21 4 Clayton Kershaw 121 278.2 2008 2009 20-21 5 Frank Tanana 120 552.1 1973 1975 19-21 6 Madison Bumgarner 119 266.1 2009 2011 19-21 7 Ken Holtzman 107 317.1 1965 1967 19-21 8 Ray Sadecki 104 482.1 1960 1962 19-21 9 Dick Ellsworth 103 365.2 1958 1961 18-21 10 CC Sabathia 101 390.1 2001 2002 20-21
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 8/10/2011.
1) It’s rare for anyone to be doing anything above-average in the majors at age 21, or less, and 2) Madison, as expected, is surrounded by some well known names on these two lists — Gooden, Drysdale, Blyleven, Tanana, Eckersley, and Valenzuela. There are, however, some cautionary tales. From ages 22-27 Bill Stafford posted a 91 ERA+ while struggling with an arm injury; from ages 22-26 Britt Burns posted a 108 ERA+ while dealing with injuries; and I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention Gooden. It’s hard to compare Gooden with players that were just hurt by injuries as Gooden was part injury, part work load, and part substance abuse issues. Still, he’s a good, if not sad, example of why you can’t extrapolate careers from early success.
Pitching health usually seems like it’s predestined by the gods, so it’s hard to see how Bumgarner will ultimately turn out, but he’s really on a fantastic start to his (young) career.
