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Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

Let's not wholly concentrate on this year. with Buster back in 2012, all our pitchers (minus Zito) still in place, possibly Brandon now playing regularly, we might be in excellent shape. We don't need Bonds to screw us up and Brown might, just might, be ready.

yogiberra
yogiberra

The turning-point of Monday's loss to Arizona, took place in the bottom of the 5th inning. Matt Cain had just struggled through a long inning, escaping from having the bases loaded, yet still holding a 1-0 lead. He'd already thrown 75 pitches! It's the job of the offense to protect their Pitcher, and allow him to "catch his breath', before returning to the mound, especially mid-to-late in the game, after a difficult inning. Knowing Cain is due to hit third that inning, do the first two batters take a strike or two? Not Cabrera and Whiteside....Nope, in 3 pitches they make 2 outs! Then, after Cain Strikes out, he goes straight back to the mound, to throw another 30 pitches (Totaling 105). Result: Arizona = 5 runs in the top of the 6th! This exact secenario has been repeated in nearly 40% of Giant losses, both this year, and last. A tiring, or stressed Starting Pitcher, who's not permitted to get his "Second-Wind", is typically the source of the opponents, following with a "Big" inning.... Don't they still have Batting Coaches in the Major Leagues that teach this?

Paapfly
Paapfly

It would not be possible for me to agree with you more. As a former pitcher, I know what this does to you. You simpy need a breather after a stressful and long inning. It also didn't help that 1) the umpire had a pea-sized strike zone and 2) Arizona hit not one, but two 42-hopper ground balls through the right side of the infield. I said it on Twitter, but I'm pretty sure Bengie Molina could take Keppinger in a 40-yard dash.

nygfan
nygfan

"This is certainly a red flag when trying to figure out what the Giants might be able to accomplish come October." - The Giants' run differential in the NLDS and NLCS combined last year was +1. Run differential can be a useful retrospective measuring tool, but I disagree with treating it as something that has to be acheived going forward in the vein of wins.

Paapfly
Paapfly

It's not something that has to be achieved in vein of wins, but it's much more than a retrospective measuring tool. It's very predictive. It tells you which teams are the best teams. The fact that the entire AL Central has a run differential that is negative tells you a lot about the division. The fact that the AL East has two teams that are pushing +150 and two others that are positive tells you a lot about those teams, that division. The run differential of the Giants in this division series and champion series is too small of a sample to draw any conclusion from.

nygfan
nygfan

I completely agree, I just think it's a little perverse for a fan to get in the mindset of "well we won the game but we didn't really add to our run differential," or "why couldn't the Reds have beaten us 4-0 instead of 9-0 on Sunday." And I think saying that "it doesn’t much concern me in terms of figuring out the Giants’ odds at winning the division" is backwards: run differential correlates strongly with making the playoffs, but less so with success in the playoffs. Anyway, I always enjoy your posts, Rory.

nygfan
nygfan

Well done. Thanks.

nygfan
nygfan

... by the team with the third worst RD among playoff teams, who went on to play the team with the second worst RD in the World Series. Nah I agree, just being facetious. The randomness of the playoffs can make you question the point of a season of number crunching. But as a Gaints fan I hold out hope that maybe, just maybe, the ERA and runs allowed half of run differential correlates more to playoff success than does runs scored: http://sportsstatsanalysis.wordpress.com/2009/06/...

Paapfly
Paapfly

The reason that run differential correlates strongly with making the playoffs (but less so with success in the playoffs) makes sense, doesn't it? Isn't that just a sampling issue? The small number of games in the playoffs lends to poorer teams sometimes winning series. In other words, the crapshoot-ishness of playoff baseball. But that doesn't mean the better teams (with better run differentials) aren't more likely to win. They are. But anyway, I'm very glad you enjoy my posts and enjoy your comments and opinions.

Paapfly
Paapfly

I agree with you on the mindset you speak of... it's ridiculous to think that way on a per-game basis. However, it's very, very useful to look at over a large sample of games, a point which I don't think either of us is arguing. What I meant when I said "it doesn’t much concern me in terms of figuring out the Giants’ odds at winning the division" perhaps didn't come off clearly. My main point was that the differenece between theirs and Arizona's was small, thus not a sign that Arizona would fly by them. But that it would become a concern in the playoffs because it's obvious that several teams would have shown to be better teams throughout the regular season BECAUSE of their huge advantage in run differential.

Paapfly
Paapfly

Concerned it'll happen again? Their RD said they should have been 10 wins lighter, and they were swept right out of the playoffs.

nygfan
nygfan

Also, I think I've just been sensitive about run differential ever since the 1997 Giants and their negaitve run differential. Illogically so, admittedly.

Curtis
Curtis

Hitting lefties is the least of the Giants' concerns. Rowand is fine as a platoon in cf. Their problem is getting on base and hitting righties. I do think Brown should be in AAA - months ago in fact, not sure what else he can learn in San Jose. He's 23 in September - on the old side for prospects never past single A. I wouldn't put too much stock in Brown. I'm curious as to how many hitters 23 years old never past single A actually turned out to be good. I'm guessing very very few.

Paapfly
Paapfly

We'll want to see him play, and ultimately struggle, in AA or AAA (which should be soon enough) before we want to say something like: "I wouldn't put too much stock in Brown." I doubt if the Giants would have dealt Wheeler instead of Brown if they felt that way. I'm pretty sure they had high hopes for both.

Paapfly
Paapfly

That he's 23 and hasn't been past A-ball says nothing to me, not in this case. He's there simply because SF haven't promoted him and because it's his 1st professional season; it's not as if he's been toiling in A-ball for 3 seasons. I don't think he's a can't-miss prospect, but he is a good one. He was a 1st-Rd pick a year ago and is lighting up the scene in his 1st professional campaign. He's getting on base, hitting for a high AVG, hitting for some power, stealing a ton of bases and, presumably, playing a pretty solid CF. With that type of athleticism, he won't have to hit much to produce in the big leagues. If he hits as well as Michael Bourn (no power, league average or so OBP), he'll be a quite valuable player, somewhere in the realm of a 3-4 WAR a season.

Spencer H
Spencer H

I'm up for almost any possibility of upgrading over Rowand, Cody, RH batting Torres, or Burrell but I definitely wouldn't make this move until September which I assume is what you are proposing anyway. It seems like a jump but his speed alone would be a nice addition in September along with Ford's and if he can hit at all do we dare say he could be on the playoff roster? If I can propose an alternate ridiculous crazy idea, would Barry Bonds be an upgrade as a pinch hitter off the bench for the stretch run? First of all, this is another move I wouldn't make until the rosters expand and 2nd I know it has been 4 years since he played in the majors but it seems like he at the very least he could draw a walk here and there with the intimidation factor to start a late rally or get a big hit. I have no idea if he's in shape, and I know everyone will say I'm ridiculous to bring up having the sideshow back on the team with how great the team chemistry has been since the beginning of 2010 but he has to be as good of an option to PH as Burrell would be in September. Everyone please respond and let me know how ridiculous this idea is from 1-10, with 1 being a downright awesome idea (getting Schmidt for Vogey and Armando Rios), all the way up to 10 with this idea being as crazy as us giving Zito & Rowand a combined 186 million over 12 years of pathetic service. I love all of your articles guys, so keep up the good work!

Paapfly
Paapfly

I'll give this a solid seven. Very crazy, but way less crazy and a lot smarter than paying Zito and Rowand. I doubt if Bonds has anything left. He must be 45 years old by now.

Paapfly
Paapfly

I like the comments so far about Brown; it's generally what I expected to hear from everyone. It's probably just too big of a jump, and it's probably better for his development to spend some more time in the minors, particularly at AA and AAA.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

We are a sophisticated crowd, obviously.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

I like your crazy idea, but I'd probably leave Brown put for now. The Giants have a couple of guys that should hit LHP (Ross, Burrell -- if he doesn't get released) and with the team being so offensively challenged, I have a hard time placing a guy on the team because he's fast. It's unlikely that he's better on defense (right now, presently) than Andres Torres. Let him marinate some more, hopefully he'll get called up to AA soon.

Paapfly
Paapfly

I agree with you that there's no way he's better than Torres on defense right now. I was more wondering if he could be approaching comparable, perhaps someplace between Torres and Rowand in terms of positive runs on defense. I do think he'd be a better base runner, though. As far as guys that can hit lefites, I'm thinking more along the lines of a center fielder that can hit lefties. Maybe Ross is an answer there. I know Torres doesn't have a ton of at-bats versus LHP (Small sample and all that), but I don't like his at-bats versus lefties, period. Pablo isn't near the weapon from that side, either.

marcellosfg
marcellosfg

I don't know about Brown, that seems like rushing him quite a bit. We'll have Ford and Burriss back up in September, and they can provide the speed off the bench. And it's not like our outfield isn't already crowed. Even if those options aren't all spectacular, I have trouble believing that Brown is ready to out hit our current group.

LeviDavis
LeviDavis

Regarding your crazy idea, my response is: See Mike Trout. It is darn tough to make a jump that big, especially for a guy just one year removed from taking mid-terms.