4-3

Published by on July 17, 2011 | 12 Responses

4-3…

That was the final score in the Giants’ win over the Padres this afternoon, which came via the suicide squeeze and on Chris Stewart’s second sacrifice bunt of the day. But it also just so happens to be the thing most often written by the official scorer this season at the conclusion of Aubrey Huff’s at-bats.

Me having a little fun on Twitter this afternoon:

Brandon Belt walked twice in Triple-A today, didn't ground out to second 53 times.
July 17, 2011 7:18 pm via Twitter for iPhoneReplyRetweetFavorite
@paapfly
Paapfly

—-

Coming into Sunday, Aubrey Huff had a 104 point drop in his weighted on-base average (wOBA) from 2010 to 2011 (to date). He’s hitting .236/.290/.365 (average/on-base percentage/slugging). That makes him the ninth worst hitter in the Senior Circuit and the worst first baseman, though James Loney is giving him a run for his money. (American League DH’s Adam Dunn and Hideki Matsui have been worse… somehow.)

In terms of total value, both FanGraphs (-1.0 Wins Above Replacement) and Baseball-reference (-1.1 WAR) agree that he’s been one of the worst players in baseball.

Brandon Belt was sent down early on this season after hitting .211/.328/.281 for a .295 wOBA. It’s an uninspiring line, for sure, but it’s better than Huff’s (with better defense) and in a much smaller sample, as he was given just 67 plate appearances before he was sent packing.  His .341/.467/.576 line in Triple-A Fresno suggests he might be worth another look.

Meanwhile the Giants are scouring the trade market for upgrades at almost every other position (corner outfield spots, shortstop, catcher and second). But the clearest spot to an upgrade is at first base with a one-for-one swap of  Belt for Huff, a move that would cost them nothing in salary or prospects. I understand why the Giants are reluctant to do it, but if nothing changes in the 34-year-old’s season, the time will soon come when the Giants will have zero justifiable excuses to not make the change.

Here’s Huff’s hit chart at AT&T Park this season:

Rollin', rollin', rollin' over to second base.

Click this link (Fox Sports) for his real hit chart at AT&T. It’s disturbingly similar to the one in my head (reproduced above).

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Baseball writer... sort of.

12 comments
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Curtis
Curtis

You're so right Paapfly. Signing Pujols would be a nightmare. There is no WAY he's only 31, sorry, just not possible. Baseball hitters just don't peak at 23 and start to decline at 29-30. If Pujols played SS, catcher or 2nd, it might be a different. But a GM can find great value at 1B for cheap. Just look at Huff last year for 3m. It's really the only position where discounts and good players are common place, and blowing 1/5 of your team's budget on that position is just not very wise. Plus, I'd be willing to wager that over the next 6 years, Belt's stats won't be that much worse than Pujol's stats (especially in years 4,5, and 6), while making 15-20 mil a year less. Spend the money on scouting/the farm system or pitching. Sabean is completely inept when it comes to what is important to score runs. He completely discredits age, OPS with Ball Park adjustment and Pitches Per Plate Appearance, possibly the three most important variables when signing an offensive free agent. I'd rather not lock the money up and wait til Sabean is out of there. Trade Wheeler and Surkamp in a heartbeat. More often than not, top pitching prospects get hurt or simply don't pan out, it's worth the risk... Giants have won 1 WS since being in SF, the opportunity doesn't come along too often. Now is the time. You have to win or build for the future, you can't do both. Rasmus should be their number 1 pursuit, unless Hanley Ramirez and Matt Kemp are available, although I don't believe the few reports I've seen that say they might be.

Rory Paap
Rory Paap

No thanks on Hanley. I doubt he's available and would guess his price tag would be huge. Besides that, though, talk about squandering talent. His defense sucks and he can't seem to hit anymore... He's lazy, has a bad attitude, and his play has fallen off a cliff.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

It came to me in a dream overnight: Bid on Albert Pujols to solve both the first base problem and the lack of hitting one as well. He'll sign a twenty million eight-year offer, bring in even more fans (on the road since the Giants at home are filled to such capacity that the only way a tourist can view a game is to find a scalper) and more playoffs, enrich the Giants so that the salary paid to him becomes an outstanding investment and, in the meantime, his model will be an excellent one for the new and young Giant ballplayers.

Paapfly
Paapfly

I think the team that signs Pujols, assuming it's not NYY or BOS, is going to get crushed. I think he's the next man destined to sign an albatross, toxic contract. They'll pay for his peak years and get his decline years. And it's not talked about often, but he might actually be older than we think.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

I disagree, Rory. Of course, we won't know for five years yet. I think he'll remain at least very very good if not spectacular.

kris
kris

Although I too would like to see the kid, if I recall correctly, Brandon Belt was no stranger to the 4-3 himself. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/player/brandon-belt/...

Rory Paap
Rory Paap

I agree. Belt was rolling over a lot of balls, too. But he was also getting on base about four percent more often. And he struggled over the course of 19 games or so, where Huff has struggled over 80 games or so. It's gotta be time to make the change, if not now then soon. It'll be a tough one. Heck, it'll be excruciating for Bochy. But do you know what? Huff will understand. If any of the guys in the locker room would understand, it'd be him.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

Except that Brandon Belt is a rookie with excellent credentials to improve his earlier hitting and to become a fine ballplayer. The same cannot be said of Aubrey Huff who is already a veteran of a "certain age". With steroids, Aubrey is on the downhill path. In fact, last year's good play was an anomaly. The Giants wait and wait and wait...although they have the funds to immediately improve the team. We, fANS, suffer while the ownership continues to grow rich.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

I meant "without steroids" re Aubrey and his age. Sorry Folks.

Curtis
Curtis

Sad part is, if you delve deeper into Huff's year, he's actually worse than his primary stats would lead you to believe... And that's hard to do. He's batting .346 when the Giants are ahead by 4 or more runs - basically garbage time. The Giants with a 4 run lead is like Nadal with a 2 set lead on clay, game over. - Time to pad those stats against AAA mop up pitchers. Of course, when he's needed most, runners in scoring position with two outs, he's at his worse, batting .208 with a .292 slg %. And when the game is tied, he's batting .206 with a .565 OPS. And he currently ranks 608th out of 608 in the NL in WAR (Even worse than Dan Uggla and Casey McGeehee). Huff's current season is almost worse than the game Kyle Phillips (Padres' catcher) had today... Well, let's not go that far, but you get the point.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

You made your point, Rory, with the hit chart in your head and then the real one. Disturbingly similar! You expressed yourself in a very "graphic" way.