Giants second-half preview

Published by on July 15, 2011 | 11 Responses

I wrote a quick blurb for the mothership blog that was posted yesterday on the Giants’ second-half needs.

What needs to be fixed or accomplished in the second half?

The offense. Plain and simple, the Giants will need to score more runs if they want to stay in the mix for a playoff spot. It’s become a tiresome subject for the team, but San Francisco’s deficiencies on offense become more apparent every day. Key players have struggled (Aubrey Huff, Andres Torres, Miguel Tejada) or been hurt (Freddy Sanchez, Buster Posey, Mark DeRosa).

Top item on shopping list?

Upgrading catcher is a major priority. The Eli Whiteside (.674 OPS) and Chris Stewart (.545 OPS) combination has been, as expected, far below average. Even a marginal upgrade such as Yorvit Torrealba could add a win or two to the roster. In addition, the team also should consider upgrading at second base. It’s unlikely that Sanchez will return, and a player such as Jamey Carroll could help the overall talent level at minimal cost.

Player to watch.

Even though he struggled to start the year, Brandon Belt is still a highly regarded prospect and one of the few potential average to above-average bats in the system. Once he returns from his rehab assignment, the Giants should turn him loose for 250 at-bats in the second half.
–Chris Quick, Bay City Ball

The boilerplate blogpost for this season has been: the offense isn’t good, the pitching is amazing, we need catcher help, and please god, let Brandon Belt get some playing time.

The offense will most likely continue to be problematic in the short term. Though, there are some points of hope, mainly in the hot-hitting Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval is on his way to Jack Clark’s San Fransisco record hitting streak (26 consecutive games in 1978), and a quick look at his ISO chart on FanGraphs is a welcome sight — Pablo’s power is on the upswing. That’s remarkable news for Sandoval. His power dipped in 2010 and it’s good to see him driving the ball again.

In last night’s game, Aubrey Huff’s dramatic huge home run off Padres’ closer, Heath Bell, should also give us a tiny bit of hope. It’s hard to go any lower than Huff’s current season (.287 wOBA). If Huff plays up to his rest-of-season projection by ZiPS (.336 wOBA) the Giants would take it, easy. And, I’ve seen it mentioned in numerous places that Huff has done better in his career in the second half — .778 OPS to .852 OPS. I don’t think we can assume that Huff is going to flick a switch and improve drastically just because it’s the second half. That seems a little silly. We’ve got to consider things such as his age, as well as other factors that go into the mix. But, I would think that on some level, there’s some potency left in Huff’s bat, and if he can summon a month or two of 2010 Aubrey Huff, well, that would be great.

The pitching should still lead the way, but don’t make the mistake of thinking they can help carry an offense that is this bad on most nights. A big reason why the Giants made the postseason last year was the inclusion of a league average offense. Read that again: league average. It’s hard to think that any amount of pitching dominance can carry an offense that’s ranked 15th or 16th in the National League. Yes, the results have been good on paper to this point, and some of the projection systems still adore the Giants, but the team’s success in one run games seems unsustainable to me.

I’m sure that at some point in the second half Brian Sabean will add a couple of pieces to the team. What he decides to add, and how much he spends will be covered in a blog post soon.

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hlang
hlang

Obsessive Giants Compulsive keeps spouting that Baseball Analysts study showing (surprise!) pitching dominates hitting in the post season. It's a totally stupid argument for reasons cited in this post (and which I raised when made). The Giants are not slightly below average. They are worst in baseball on offense. There is no metric showing that terrible offense + good-great pitching wins in the off season. The BA metric shows that teams a few percentage points below league average offense do ok if they have excellent pitching. That said, I would not give up any substantive pitching for a rental. I would not give up a lock prospect for a rental. I would never have paid Aubrey Huff $11M/yr for two yearr. Utterly ridiculous. That contract clearly demonstrates that Sabean still does not know what to look at.

Robert Haymond
Robert Haymond

I keep noting that the Giant brass/ownership refuse to pay out money to bring in the offense required. Let's put it in perspective: Every Giant homegame is sold out. Each game attracts over 40,000 people, third in the major leagues. So what's to stop the Giants from going out to make a purchase? Yes, they made a mistake in Barry Zito (who might just, might just be coming around) but they also got rid of Jason Schmidt who also proved himself finished for the Dodgers. Mistakes are made. These are gambles. But the Giants need to gamble and, yes, they can afford it. And, incidentally, here's an early 2012 recommendation: Albert Pujols. Well, his contract it up and the clubs will be bidding. Why not the Giants?

kev
kev

Because with the pitching ownership knows they will stay competitive, and with the new ball park, it will keep people in the seats. So why spend more $?

Rory Paap
Rory Paap

I think that the team who signs Pujols is going to be incredibly screwed. He's going to get too much money for too many years, based purely on what he's done (utterly, ridiculously amazing things) in the past, and not what he's able to do in the future. He's had some injuries pop up, he's already leaving what should be his prime, his numbers are down across the board, and he may very well be older than we think he is. $200 M, $250 M? This guy is going to sink a franchise. That's my bold prediction.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Agreed. I'd be incredibly happy with Pujols as a Giant, but the commitment (both in years and dollars) needed to obtain his services is downright frightening.

Curtis
Curtis

Sabean and the Giants have zero idea what value is on the offensive side. Their history of semi big free agents is obvious proof. They tend to sign players with inflated batting averages versus lefties and sub par OPS versus righties, declining with age, coming from hitters' parks that inflated their stats. Basically, they get duped. They are probably the only team that you can predict who they are gonna sign in the off season each year. Seriously, I'd bet that 9 out of 10 diehard fans knew the Giants would sign Rowand, DeRosa and Tejada. So two thoughts, first: Don't waste any money signing offensive free agents and simply put the money in the farm system and scouting. The offensive players the Giants actually pursue and want turn out to be detrimental. Some players fall into their laps (Huff, Ross), but usually, they end up with a bench full of Jose Guilliens, Rowands, DeRosas, Alfonsos, Tejadas, Uribes and so on. Thought two: Go a different way and sign the proverbial Babe Ruth. It's hard to be wrong when you sign a Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols type. Granted, it will cost you 20 mil a year at least and it's putting all your eggs in one basket, but wouldn't you rather have 1 superstar than 3 overpriced, declining, free swinging right handed hitters that can hit only lefties for 6 to 12 mil each?

kev
kev

As long as they keep pitching and getting lucky with all these dramatic wins (and 25-12 in 1 run games) They will be fine. Bring up Belt and sit Cody Ross, he is the most overrated player in the game, what he did in the post season was a complete fluke.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Cody is a pretty darned useful player to have, even more so on the hitting starved Giants. As much as I love Belt, I'm not sure he can match Cody's current wRC+ of 119 -- ie: he's hitting 19% better than league average.

BennyWeasel
BennyWeasel

I agree that we need to bring Brandon Belt back as soon as possible. The real question is where are we going to put him? I think moving Ross to CF and placing him in LF makes the most sense. I doubt the Giants will spring for a big bat before the trade deadline. I can only assume they will add veteran players as they have in the past. After watching "The Franchise" on Showtime, I wish I could be a fly on wall for the brain storming sessions that are going on regarding: 1.) Can Huff provide the offense he did last year? 2.) What are we going to do about SS and C? I don't envy the decisions that Bochy and Sabean have to make in the next week or two.

oldjacket
oldjacket

I think it also bears mentioning that the Diamondbacks have hung right with SF so far, and it's not safe to assume that they're just going to stand pat. Their holes (back of the rotation and bullpen) are probably going to be a little cheaper to fill than the Giants'. Also the Rockies could remember how to play baseball.

SO CAL RB SF FAN
SO CAL RB SF FAN

Although we are early into the 2nd half. I believe our key strech is July 22 - Aug 07, in which we face MIl,PHI,CIN,AZ, & PHI again respectively.. If we come out of this brutal 2 weeks @ .500... NL West is ours again...