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ian
ian

Thanks for the link, Chris! I'm still just trying to make sense of it all, and open to hearing any and all feedback from you, your readers, or anyone else on their thoughts. 91 wins still seems completely out of the realm of possibility to me. Also, Belt > Ross in the outfield "power rankings"? That's a curious choice. What are you basing that on? If only Huff would sustain a phantom injury and hit the DL we wouldn't even have to have this conversation. Of course, Belt would have to fight for the 1B spot with Manny Burriss now...

Liem
Liem

91 shouldn't seem like it is out of the realm of possibility given the Giants current win %. At .554, they are projected to win 89.75 games. Posey's injury probably takes away a few games from that 89.75, but remember that the Giants have only played 21 of their 56 games at home (38%). With a huge home field advantage for the rest of the year and the return of Sandoval, 89.75 seems not only reasonable, but likely. In that case 91 would only be a minor over achievement.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

91 wins "feels" like a really tall order. BP does take into account the depth chart for roster changes....I think. They've already plugged in Whiteside as starting catcher http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/inde... He's projected, by PECOTA, to hit .226/.273/.350. One thing I notice that on the depth chart BP is giving 80% of PT at first to Belt. Belt's projection is quite good -- .269/.359/.455 -- and depending on how they calculate their playoff odds, that's something that might not match up with reality. It's impossible that Huff doesn't get 70% of the PT at 1B this year. Sandoval is accounting for 80% of PT at 3B. His injury will cloud the projections (I assume, unless I'm reading things wrong) in terms of both PT and performance. It's not hard to see that with Bochy's roster use, and some health issues, how the team could undershoot 91 wins. >> Also, Belt > Ross in the outfield "power rankings"? That's a curious choice. What are you basing that on? The hope that Belt can hit major league pitching. It's the unfortunately titled, John Bowker Theory -- ie: you've got to take a chance on guys with upside when there's nothing else on the roster. I like Ross, but I like him better against LHP. It's really probably a coin-flip between him at Nate for PT.

Chris Quick
Chris Quick

Also, the team will REALLY need Sandoval to come back and not miss a beat. #thingsyoualreadyknew

Hairball
Hairball

If memory serves, straight platoons don't happen with Bochy. Life would be a whole lot simpler if they did.

ian
ian

OK, this is starting to come together in my mind -- I can imagine a team with Belt at 1B and a fully recovered Sandoval at 3B, and anyone but Tejada at SS, that *starts* to look like a 90ish win team. But as you point out, quite rightly, Huff will get the starts at first unless he gets hurt. Any chance we see a straight platoon in LF? Ross vs LHP, and Nate or Belt vs. righties?